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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Well...I guess we will see.
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    ^ for you pit: Hmmm. The Dark Side clouds everything. Impossible to see, the future is.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Very nice. That's my point though. If we all knew what a set would do...well...we wouldn't need this thread ;)
  • charlatan13charlatan13 Member Posts: 118
    edited August 2013
    @Pitfall69...so what are you going to do with yours? You know you want to build it, write a review and then post a picture in the 'what are you building now' thread.

    I haven't ever resold anything and I think I'll try the Hovercraft #42002 as a starter rather than #41999 (now if they built a large Hovercraft model with some sort of Power Function I'd have to buy that one!). I'll admit that I'm curious about the Technic appeal versus the Limited edition aspect since you have to figure that some Technic enthusiasts bought one for themselves.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Well in my mind 41999 was easily the best pick of 2013 for price gains. Nothing else will come close. This one will be talked about for a long time....can't wait for the next "limited" release.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Legofanscott said:

    Considering technics limited market appeal, im kind of expecting the worst, i know its limited which makes a difference but at the end of the day it is STIL a technic set

    That is all true... however...

    #8285 - Tow Truck

    and

    #8275 - Motorized Bulldozer

    Would seem to provide evidence that limited market appeal doesn't always translate into limited price appreciation in the aftermarket.

    Now, there are plenty of Technic sets that have done little or nothing special in the aftermarket, but the same can be said for regular LEGO as well.

    It is all about picking the winners, and I think #41999 is a winner.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited August 2013
    The Colors are great, the box it comes in is great, it cost $200 US and it is limited to 20,000 units worldwide of course it is a winner, but a Limited Edition popular licenced set costing the same would destroy the Crawler in the aftermarket. $250-300 is low, but I think $600+ is pushing it.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Thats strange, My 41999 has been shipped and ive got the tracking number but Lego havnt charged me yet????

    Is that normal? :/

    Ive gotten a free 41999 yay LOL
    Dougout
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,507
    edited August 2013
    Trenth said:

    I am going to have to disagree with samiam391. I do not think we will see a dip in prices on this set. I could though see a dramatic slow down in the climb in the next week. Once Christmas hits we will see another spike, and then a steady climb after that. I have three sets. I will probably sell one at Christmas, hold on to one to see how high the ceiling is price wise, and torment myself about keeping the third. Oh why didn't I just stay a collector? ha

    Nothing wrong with that! Although I have to say...

    I never said it wouldn't spike before Christmas. I never stated how long I thought the dip in price would last. I also didn't say it wouldn't do well, but I did warn to temper expectations that seemed to be quickly running out of control.

    My main comments derived from you using a set that sold for 400 pounds as an example of what prices would "start" from.
    doriansdad said:


    Ya he is completely wrong on this one. LFT may wanna the over on $600....by this xmas!

    @doriansdad- I've been wrong before. I haven't made any direct comments as to what price I think this item will go for by this Christmas (even though people seem to think I have by their responses), I've only stated my opinions on fluctuations in price I think we might see.

    However, since you've brought a specific price up (over $600)... I'm a betting man when it comes to LEGO... care to make a wager? ;o)
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    I'm thinking it'll be about 400GBP by christmas. To be honest that's enough profit for me, I'll be selling them at that point. I could do with the cash to be honest and post christmas I honestly can't see it rising that much. Will this set really be hitting 500GBP by Christmas 2014? I doubt it.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    edited August 2013
    samiam391 said:


    @doriansdad- I've been wrong before. I haven't made any direct comments as to what price I think this item will go for by this Christmas (even though people seem to think I have by their responses), I've only stated my opinions on fluctuations in price I think we might see.

    However, since you've brought a specific price up (over $600)... I'm a betting man when it comes to LEGO... care to make a wager? ;o)

    I don't bet mate but thanks for the offer. This set will certainly sell for more than $600 USD come xmas (it has already sold for over $600 USD on ebay) but as an average I am not so sure....once the part out values surface on bricklink I will be able to get a very accurate forecast.

  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,507
    ^I don't either... but I make a small exception when it comes to LEGO. :o)

    Average is what we are aiming for. I don't think it's reasonable to consider outliers as a going rate, even when predicting months in advance. The average could be $300, but one sell for $600 from an overseas bidder.

    I'm very intrigued to see what it goes for come Christmas time. I'd be happy to be proved wrong and for it to go for above $500, as that would make for a lot of cheery Brickset members :o)
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    edited August 2013
    @samiam391 "My main comments derived from you using a set that sold for 400 pounds as an example of what prices would "start" from."

    When did I use a 400 set as an example? And my prediction was $500 at Christmas not 600.
  • KleiovousKleiovous Member Posts: 95
    I wonder how many kids are going to ask for #41999 for Christmas, especially given its negligible shelf life and especially if it has already been removed from the Lego site. How many little Timmy's are going to ask for a set which 99% have never seen and that there's little evidence of online except 'adult' forums and ebay? My musings anyway.
    Pitfall69
  • SiESiE Member Posts: 238
    Well in the uk one has sold at £399 + 15 postage on ebay.

    This is mental.
    Pitfall69
  • tom4086tom4086 Member Posts: 689
    ^ just one. I think this is the exception rather than the rule :)
    Pitfall69
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    ^3 sold this morning at £350 + del
  • SiESiE Member Posts: 238
    Thats about $640. There are a few sold at £350 the day before as well.
  • BillybrownBillybrown Member Posts: 748
    SiE said:

    Thats about $640. There are a few sold at £350 the day before as well.

    A lot are going to the same buyer as well. Been keeping my eye on it and they have bought at least 8 from ebay ranging from £250 to £350.

    Pitfall69
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    edited August 2013
    3 more sold since I last posted £375, and 2 at £400ish.

    I guess if you can buy them for £250 and sell for £400 that's not a bad mornings work.
  • BillybrownBillybrown Member Posts: 748
    JamesJT said:

    3 more sold since I last posted £375, and 2 at £400ish.

    I guess if you can buy them for £250 and sell for £400 that's not a bad mornings work.

    Same buyer got at least 2 of those. So thats at least 10 they have for between £250 and £400. They probably now have more #41999 than any of us lol Albeit at inflated prices!

  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Billybrown said:

    JamesJT said:

    3 more sold since I last posted £375, and 2 at £400ish.

    I guess if you can buy them for £250 and sell for £400 that's not a bad mornings work.

    Same buyer got at least 2 of those. So thats at least 10 they have for between £250 and £400. They probably now have more #41999 than any of us lol Albeit at inflated prices!

    Yet if he had waited he couldve gotten 2 off the Lego website or probably more considering how many others have gotten away with buying and then gotten a few from Lego stores

    I hope for that ebay buyers sake this set does turn into a flop, serves him right for his sheer stuipidity whoever that person is.
  • vitreolumvitreolum Member Posts: 1,406
    ^ Ever considered he's from somewhere S@h doesn't ship and had no one to order them for him? :)
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    vitreolum said:

    ^ Ever considered he's from somewhere S@h doesn't ship and had no one to order them for him? :)

    I understand that but, then why not buy them from an American seller which would turn out cheaper with the exchange rate :)
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    Will anybody here turn out to be 6***K with 1099 feedbacks?

    Strange how #9398 in a pretty blue frock can be worth more than #10212.
  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242
    Legofanscott said:

    vitreolum said:

    ^ Ever considered he's from somewhere S@h doesn't ship and had no one to order them for him? :)

    I understand that but, then why not buy them from an American seller which would turn out cheaper with the exchange rate :)
    I thought that but with import tax would it?

    I would love to hear from the buyer themselves just to hear what plans / thoughts they have...
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited August 2013
    Yeah, who need's the Friends theme when you have pink SW sets! If LEGO had just thought outside the box a bit. :-) And, maybe throw in some purple. The two 'p' colors that all girls seem to like! And, they go so well together too!
  • hendrikdejagerhendrikdejager Member Posts: 27
    edited August 2013
    I didn't managed to get a 41999 myself but what i've learned over the years of Lego investing and seeing this set, i estimate this set to reach €1000($1330) by next year, specially Xmas. It it just the perfect investment.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    hendrikdejager said:

    I didn't managed to get a 41999 myself but what i've learned over the years of Lego investing and seeing this set, i estimate this set to reach €1000($1330) by next year, specially Xmas. It it just the perfect investment.

    WOW

    i hope i am proved wrong but i don't think i could ever see it making that :/

    Pitfall69
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    For me it will be very interesting to see what the box, instructions and unique plates go for on bricklink. A heck of alot of the value must be in those 3 items.

    Amazingly there is just no volume for these sets so we could see prices gap up very quickly on this one....reminds me of the good old days of reselling before tens of thousands of a set were stockpiled (10193 and 10197 I am looking at you lol).
  • vitreolumvitreolum Member Posts: 1,406
    JamesJT said:

    Will anybody here turn out to be 6***K with 1099 feedbacks?

    Strange how #9398 in a pretty blue frock can be worth more than #10212.

    Had #10212 been limited to 20k, "#9398 in a pretty blue frock" would be nowhere near that. The availability for #10212 is probably higher than it was before EOL.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    JamesJT said:


    Strange how #9398 in a pretty blue frock can be worth more than #10212.

    41999 was out for 1 week, 10212 was available for 2 years. They sold 20k 41999s and maybe 400k 10212s.

    Most importantly resellers got around two 41999s to sell (but it seems most went for 21103 and forgot about 41999 altogether). Compare this to 10212 where many resellers have hundreds. Simple supply and demand.

    At this point the actual set inside that box is meaningless. For the first time TLG marketed a unique and truly limited collectible. Uncharted territory for the lego secondary market and the perfect storm heading into the heavy buying season. Enjoy the ride.
  • vitreolumvitreolum Member Posts: 1,406
    Just by looking at those 5205 #30230 for sale on BL, I wonder if they've ever received so many orders in 10 days...
    Brickarmor
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Member Posts: 1,659
    ^ #30230 was widely available at Walmart earlier this year, either for 3.99 or sale.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Wow. A ton of comments. So many I have turned into a "LikeWhore" @legomatt.
    legomatt
  • vitreolumvitreolum Member Posts: 1,406
    edited August 2013
    ColoradoBricks said:

    ^ #30230 was widely available at Walmart earlier this year, either for 3.99 or sale.

    Ah, didn't know that, thought it was only available with these orders.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Many good points, but I want to pull one out of the bunch.
    Kleiovous said:

    I wonder how many kids are going to ask for #41999 for Christmas, especially given its negligible shelf life and especially if it has already been removed from the Lego site. How many little Timmy's are going to ask for a set which 99% have never seen and that there's little evidence of online except 'adult' forums and ebay? My musings anyway.

    ^This. Please don't hang Jar Jar by his ears, but FB and DS has had so much exposure that when retired people will know about them and still want them. Obviously, Star Wars will be popular for many more years, so if "little Timmy" missed out on DS because his parents would not spend $400 on a toy, he can grab one when he has the money. Same philosophy with FB, although not a licensed theme, there are still people that haven't bought the FB because of price and there are people that are going to come out of their Dark Ages and want it well after it has gone from the shelves.

    Technic sets are a niche theme much like Bionicle, but more popular. This and the fact that #41999 had an extremely short shelf life and vanished from Lego S@H. I think the lack of exposure will hurt future sales.

    There will always be people that will pay 3x RRP right away for a set because they have money to burn, but those people don't have the impact on the market as some believe.

  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Member Posts: 3,639
    Which EOL Technic set currently is highest in xRRP? Wouldn't this essentially give an idea of where 41999 will cap out?

    Highest in System is 12xRRP (Batman Tumbler) with the well known UCS MF at a reasonable 6xRRP.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    edited August 2013
    MISB #8421 @ 5xRRP but I don't know what effect 42009 will have on this.
    MISB #8288 @ 5xRRP
  • vitreolumvitreolum Member Posts: 1,406
    edited August 2013
    #8275 and #8285 go for insane prices as well, no clue what the retail for them was though.

    42009 will surely decrease the price of 8421, who would pay double for an inferior model in every way?
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,382
    #8421 will not be hurt by #42009 in any way. They will only help one another. #8421 for the fans and #42009 for the Wealthy fans.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited August 2013
    BrickDancer said:

    Which EOL Technic set currently is highest in xRRP? Wouldn't this essentially give an idea of where 41999 will cap out?

    Highest in System is 12xRRP (Batman Tumbler) with the well known UCS MF at a reasonable 6xRRP.

    Firstly, MF and Tumbler are licensed themes. Secondly, MF is an anomaly. Maybe I am wrong, but there will NEVER be a set that will do as well as the UCS MF. Third, I don't think you can base prices off of older retired sets because it seems that everyone is in the reselling game now, which will no doubt lower the prices of future retired sets. I think the future market will determine the cost of #41999, not current prices of retired sets.

    *What I mean about "do as well" is not x RRP but price.
  • SiESiE Member Posts: 238
    Plus this is the first set that has been so limited. 20k is a really small number of sets. I reckon these will get to 600-700.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Im just glad i managed to get one from S@H, im more of a collector than a reseller and im a sucker for LE stuff, so no matter what the price i think i'll still keep it :)
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    SiE said:

    I reckon these will get to 600-700.

    Is that by Xmas or by lunch time tomorrow?
    Dougoutgreenwithenvy
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    JamesJT said:

    SiE said:

    I reckon these will get to 600-700.

    Is that by Xmas or by lunch time tomorrow?
    Still amazes me how much money people are willing to blow on Lego in this economic climate.

    Seems like everyone is getting richer, not poorer
  • SiESiE Member Posts: 238
    Legofanscott said:

    Im just glad i managed to get one from S@H, im more of a collector than a reseller and im a sucker for LE stuff, so no matter what the price i think i'll still keep it :)

    Even if they reach 1k?

  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    edited August 2013
    doriansdad said:

    For me it will be very interesting to see what the box, instructions and unique plates go for on bricklink. A heck of alot of the value must be in those 3 items.

    Not to mention NINE Power Functions! I doubt, though, that (m)any will be parted out, dark blue and metallic silver be damned. And as with all Technic sets, a fair chunk of the 1500+ parts are dime a dozen bits and bobs.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    SiE said:

    Legofanscott said:

    Im just glad i managed to get one from S@H, im more of a collector than a reseller and im a sucker for LE stuff, so no matter what the price i think i'll still keep it :)

    Even if they reach 1k?

    Maybe, but for the moment i cant see it reaching that in my head.

    Having said that, look at MF zombies :P
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    I've already sold 2 of my 4 copies of #41999 - any time you can double your money in 10 days, is generally a good thing.

    Could I get $600 in 3 months? Perhaps.

    $600 by this time next year? Yes, I'm sure of it...

    But $400 today is not a bad deal. :)
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