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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    edited August 2013
    Like buy more #41999 right? haha I have already purchased two, and I am in a position to purchase two more.

    @Dougout: I think these sets will be around for awhile (at least another year), even if they retire I really don't think they will be marked up much for the first year or so after they retire. Most of these sets will see big discounts before they are gone. Keep your eyes open and snag them then. I would in no way pay full price for them, though I just don't get a good vibe for that series, so maybe another can give you some insight as well.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    Trenth said:

    Like buy more #41999 right? haha I have already purchased two, and I am in a position to purchase two more.

    There has been 5x #41999 bought on ebay UK in 24hrs @£240 each, they were all bought by the same person. Will this be a case of inflated prices due to resellers selling to resellers?
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    If the person was a reseller (and it seems likely) then it's crazy to be buying them up at that price just to resell, especially considering they are still technically available.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,730
    ^nice pun!
    Pitfall69
  • luckyrussluckyruss Member Posts: 872
    ^^^ or a bunch of engineered but potentially fake transactions to make it look like £240 is the going rate?
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    JamesJT said:

    Trenth said:

    Like buy more #41999 right? haha I have already purchased two, and I am in a position to purchase two more.

    There has been 5x #41999 bought on ebay UK in 24hrs @£240 each, they were all bought by the same person. Will this be a case of inflated prices due to resellers selling to resellers?
    His profit will be crawling along slowly at that price.
    Pitfall69FollowsClosely
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited August 2013
    TECHNICally speaking, it might take a POWERful FUNCTION to get someone to LEGO of a price CRAWLER like that.

    Oh no! What verbal PUNishment what was!
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    I think 41999 has a good chance at reaching high numbers due to its collectibility and limited humbers. If it does not it will at least stay in the $350 - $400 USD range. Not a bad bet to scoop some at 240 GBP if you cannot get more at RRP as the downside is very limited. I scooped a bunch of Green Grocers NISB for $300 about 18 months ago using the same logic...buying high and selling higher is much safer than bottom fishing.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Trenth said:

    Most of these sets will see big discounts before they are gone. Keep your eyes open and snag them then. I would in no way pay full price for them, though I just don't get a good vibe for that series, so maybe another can give you some insight as well.

    I don't think people are giving Chima enough credit still. I didn't get good vibes from it at first, but after reconsidering I have decided it is a good line. I think the majority of kids will flock towards it as it becomes the new thing and Ninjago gets phased out. Of course I'm not going to pay full price for any of the sets either, even if they are interesting.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ :) There is a lot of truth to that...
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,556
    ^^ That is assuming it will become the new thing.

    I don't think it has helped how lego have given away thousands of sets in the USA, and most of the Chima range has been on quite deep discount already in the UK. It gives people the impression that the range just doesn't sell, so no reason to ever buy at anything like full RRP.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Not many non liscenced series are home run.. Chima isn't as popular as ninjago either.
  • TheOneVeyronianTheOneVeyronian Member Posts: 1,372
    edited August 2013
    The truth with Chima is this: The larger sets are way over what they should be priced at in the first place, at least here in the UK anyhow. Worst offender for this imo is #70008, at £50 it is waaaaaayyyy too much for what it is, and it's worse when you compare it to one of it's most similar products, #9448 I think, which is similar size but retailed for just £30. #70008, £20 more for an extra fig and a more elaborate enemy attack thingy.

    I can continue all day with examples of what sets you should only get discounted from the Chima line, but I'll stop at this one: #70010, at £100, is too much too. It's RRP should have been £80 or £90, not a penny from triple figures imo!

    Don't get me wrong, it's a great line with innovative designs that, once people know it and love it, will go nuts for it, it needs time to reach potential. Once people know and love the line, the 2013 sets would have EOL'ed possibly, and prices should go up.

    It doesn't help that here in the UK the law bans the cartoons that go with these lines from being shown on TV, but I don't know how that affects the appeal over here, since they seem to do well enough here without it.

    But no getting away from the fact that Lego has seriously overproduced the speedor game sets. Even at half price on the UK Lego site they've taken ages to go out of stock. For the purposes of investment, I'd avoid these like the plague even at 50% off.

    Not that I'm actually an investor anyhow, so this is all I'll say, but I'm finding this Chima discussion interesting and I couldn't resist :-)

    Only time will tell whether Chima gets it's mojo, or chi for that matter :-D and become popular like Ninjago. Remember Ninjago's first year had teething problems too, it only became massively popular towards the end of the first year I think.

    Also, I could add that at the UK Legoland in July, they did 25% off the entire Chima range, including the hard to find ones. And they let you stack annual pass discounts on top of that too. That made me think the line was just not popular enough at the time. But it did allow me to grab a hard to find set that otherwise wouldn't have been discounted so heavily :-)

    All imo, of course.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    ^^No reason yet, but if it gets a huge following the sets won't be found on discount so easily. I was at Legoland recently and asked a bunch of kids if they liked Ninjago or Chima better and to my surprise they all said Chima even though they had more Ninjago sets. Giving the speedorz away was just a promotion.

    My point is I am seeing more kids turn to Chima when I didn't before. I've had the chance to play with #75002 Lennox' Lion Attack and it is a very cool, playable set. Chima has the disadvantage of competing with Ninjago, a hugely popular series. That may be tough for it now, but when Ninjago can't be found anywhere I see kids turning to Chima rather than just giving up on Lego altogether. IMO, Chima's age group is slightly older than Ninjago so I do believe kids will also have incentive to turn to Chima as they get a little older.
  • RennyRenny Member Posts: 1,145
    edited August 2013
    But isn't Ninjago coming back? I thought I read that somewhere on this board.
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    ^ Right, I seem to remember seeing some sort of promo pic for new Ninjago.

    Don't get me wrong I think the figs are really cool and intricate, but I don't think that chord has been struck yet with the consumer. I am not saying that it won't, but I just don't see it happening anytime soon.

    @TheOneVeyronian: wow, I had know idea about that law! That is crazy. How does that work? Is there a certain amount of product that a show can sell, or is it just that the show can't be based off the product?
  • TheOneVeyronianTheOneVeyronian Member Posts: 1,372
    edited August 2013
    @Trenth Apparently, British law states the cartoon must come before the toys, otherwise the cartoon would be breaking advertising law. The Government would just see it as a long advert, basically, and they don't like long adverts. It is totally crazy, the law means that Lego is missing out on giving British kids something to relate to. Not all of it's potential audience is gonna find the TV episodes on YouTube, or even on the official website, thus Lego is losing out on British kid's relations. But how that might affect British sales? I haven't got much idea at the moment.

    But since the Summer wave's been released, Chima has resurged, if you like. Only a few months ago the minifigs were selling poorly on eBay. But in recent weeks, my spare Chima figs sold out extremely quickly for a good price. The fanbase is definitely there I think. And despite my moaning about how #70010 was too expensive, no doubt parents will buy this one up for their little Timmy's for Christmas, at full RRP nonetheless. Just like #9450 last year, or #2507 the year before that.

    And yes, Ninjago should be making a reappearance next year, perhaps only for one final wave, who knows? I saw the poster advertising Ninjago's comeback in the summer Galaxy Squad sets. But funnily enough, not the Chima sets. But if Ninjago doesn't re-release the spinners (which I don't think they're doing), then it's not entirely competing with Chima.

    I should say, I am one of those Chima fans though. I'm only missing the fox fig at the moment, and I have 86% of the sets according to Brickset, so forgive me if it sounds like I'm defending Chima. I'm not, because while I like the figs, I like the sets, I don't like the story - anyone think it's a little clichéd?
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    ^That is intriguing. btw I forgot to edit my comment "I had know idea" "I had no idea" it was like a splinter in my brain. I had to at least comment and fix it in some way haha.
  • TheOneVeyronianTheOneVeyronian Member Posts: 1,372
    ^ Hope you didn't have the TMNT Splinter minifig in your brain ;-) Just joking! :-) I knew what you meant the first time, I blamed it on autocorrect because I see a lot of that :-)

    But you are right. I only found out about this fairly recently, I'm sure some other Bricksetters were discussing how British law affects the screening of Lego cartoons not too long ago. Possibly even on this thread. Ah, I just can't remember where I saw it to be honest :-)

    However, back in about 2006, I remember one of the Bionicle movies (the third one) being aired on Cartoon Network in the UK. Maybe this is only a recent change in TV and advertising law? Such a thing couldn't possibly pass today that's for sure.

    Forgot to add, another way Brits can see the cartoons Lego make is by getting a DVD of it. There's usually a few for sale that work in British players. But really, makes it sound like UK law is terribly strict on cartoons :-)
    Trenth
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    Vampyre Hearst at 50% off, 5 available, do I pull the trigger on this, or is this the loser of the MF theme?
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Snag em ASAP.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ I agree. It is difficult to go wrong getting any LEGO set that is 50% off. Not true 100% of the time, but it sure is the majority of the time.
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    Thanks guys, I'll do that tomorrow. I picked up one the other day, but they have more tucked on the end behind a bunch of other stuff.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Oh, my bad. I thought it said castle. It's an ok deal, I think they go for 1.5x RRP maybe 2x.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Trenth said:

    Vampyre Hearst at 50% off, 5 available, do I pull the trigger on this, or is this the loser of the MF theme?

    Stick with Haunted House from this theme IMO....comparatively every other set is a loser.

  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    edited August 2013
    doriansdad said:

    Trenth said:

    Vampyre Hearst at 50% off, 5 available, do I pull the trigger on this, or is this the loser of the MF theme?

    Stick with Haunted House from this theme IMO....comparatively every other set is a loser.

    Agree somewhat, except for the Castle, assuming it EOL's sometime soon.
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    I did pick up the castle for 50% off. They only had one though. I fear that because of the Zombie set, resellers overstocked on everything else. It will make it hard to move some of the other sets in this theme. But I do think HH and the Vamp Castle will still do really well. No doubt the HH will.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    The Castle is gonna be a good money maker.. The MF series will do better than any recent non licensed series.
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    Trivia time for everyone: guess what just sold out pretty much everywhere around the world. It is on a 30 back order in the US and Canada but gone everywhere else so it is as good as gone there as well. I hope you got one, or two....three, or..ehmmm... four.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    6, if they ship me the 2 more that my family ordered for me. :)

    Regarding MF, the whole line will do ok, but it will be very seasonal, it won't sell well in March, but will do fine in October.

    The Castle will do well, but it will be held back by the HH. Why pay $200 for the Castle when the HH is still $180? :)

    Zombies was of course the clear winner, but we all mostly missed that boat.
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    I'd be interested to hear if anyone had their 4x4 crawler order cancelled.

    Mine has gone from 'backordered' to 'in process' so I'll be keeping my ear out for the postman. Completely sold out on S@H now though. I'll be curious to see how much they start going for.
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,507
    ^Still available on US S@H, although there is a 30 day back-order.

    Personally, I'll be glad when it is completely sold out and a month has passed, all this #41999 talk on the forums is starting to get to me ;o)
    Pitfall69Thanos75
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I ordered one two days ago and called TLG. A girl said it wasn't sold out and that she expected the order to be filled.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Saw my free poly bag shipped.. Is it common for them to send that first when items are backordered?
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    ^yep and that is a good thing considering how many people's boxes were damaged because of the poly. Mine shipped separately and everything went smoothly.
  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242
    doriansdad said:

    I think most resellers were hampered by the limit of 2 on 41999 which really surprises me. This has allowed it to remain in stock so I am surprised again that folks are paying a premium when you can still get it at RRP from S@H (if you are willing to wait a week or so that is). Once the set is sold out at S@H prices may get a little crazy as most of the stock is going to fans and not resellers, especially if the set was not damaged in shipping.

    Anyone aware of anywhere in the UK with it still in stock?

    Just because its out of stock on the website does that mean there wont be any in my local Lego store?
  • bp10030bp10030 Member Posts: 102
    #41999 sold out in europe s@h now
  • TheOneVeyronianTheOneVeyronian Member Posts: 1,372
    edited August 2013
    CoraHarrison said:

    doriansdad said:

    I think most resellers were hampered by the limit of 2 on 41999 which really surprises me. This has allowed it to remain in stock so I am surprised again that folks are paying a premium when you can still get it at RRP from S@H (if you are willing to wait a week or so that is). Once the set is sold out at S@H prices may get a little crazy as most of the stock is going to fans and not resellers, especially if the set was not damaged in shipping.

    Anyone aware of anywhere in the UK with it still in stock?

    Just because its out of stock on the website does that mean there wont be any in my local Lego store?
    @CoraHarrison Dunno if this is any good to you, but your best bet is to ring your local Lego store, and ask if they have #41999 in stock, or if they're getting more in. But I've been hearing that the UK Lego stores are starting to run out too.

    Stratford might have one left, or so I heard, but save yourself a wasted trip and ring around all the stores you can get to. They might even hold one for you.

    But I'm totally surprised how fast #41999 was discontinued. In stock to backorder in six hours to sold out in nine days. That's gotta be the new record. Totally crazy. Of course, I helped it stay in stock slightly longer by not buying one :-)

    The six hours to backorder wasn't even during the day. It was between midnight and 6am. Nuts, I tell you. :-)
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,556
    ^ It's not that surprising. Limiting a set to 20000 worldwide is never going to lead to widespread availability.
    Dougout
  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242
    TheOneVeyronian said:

    CoraHarrison said:

    doriansdad said:

    I think most resellers were hampered by the limit of 2 on 41999 which really surprises me. This has allowed it to remain in stock so I am surprised again that folks are paying a premium when you can still get it at RRP from S@H (if you are willing to wait a week or so that is). Once the set is sold out at S@H prices may get a little crazy as most of the stock is going to fans and not resellers, especially if the set was not damaged in shipping.

    Anyone aware of anywhere in the UK with it still in stock?

    Just because its out of stock on the website does that mean there wont be any in my local Lego store?
    @CoraHarrison Dunno if this is any good to you, but your best bet is to ring your local Lego store, and ask if they have #41999 in stock, or if they're getting more in. But I've been hearing that the UK Lego stores are starting to run out too.

    Stratford might have one left, or so I heard, but save yourself a wasted trip and ring around all the stores you can get to. They might even hold one for you.

    But I'm totally surprised how fast #41999 was discontinued. In stock to backorder in six hours to sold out in nine days. That's gotta be the new record. Totally crazy. Of course, I helped it stay in stock slightly longer by not buying one :-)

    The six hours to backorder wasn't even during the day. It was between midnight and 6am. Nuts, I tell you. :-)
    Thanks, well I will ring round now fingers crossed I manage to bag myself one... thinking of getting a #10214 based on the fact I think it will be EOL with the Sydney opera house & the secondary market value of the statue of liberty.
  • cobblerscobblers Member Posts: 2
    I was in the Sheffield store yesterday and they still had stock available.
  • CoraHarrisonCoraHarrison Member Posts: 242
    cobblers said:

    I was in the Sheffield store yesterday and they still had stock available.

    Will ring and check and that's where I'm heading...

  • TheOneVeyronianTheOneVeyronian Member Posts: 1,372
    edited August 2013
    CCC said:

    ^ It's not that surprising. Limiting a set to 20000 worldwide is never going to lead to widespread availability.

    No, that's not what I meant. I just said I was surprised by how quickly they sold out, given that it was £140 in the first place. I wouldn't have thought people would buy up such an expensive set so quickly, that's what surprised me. Of course this isn't going to be widely available, it's a run of 20,000. The limited availability didn't surprise me, so to say.
    But then I don't know the motives of other people. Most likely people had been saving up to buy this one way ahead of release.
    I wouldn't have been surprised if the backorder had been in place at 6pm BST 1st August, but totally surprised when the first of the UK batch sold out while everyone was in bed :-) (Well I certainly was)

    But, on another note, I have quite a few things that are rarer than that Crawler, from a previous hobby. My profile pic includes a photograph of quite a rare scale model that I own. It's run was only 1,000 WW, and like the Crawler, it was only sold through one company. Okay, it's not related, it just shows I am into rare objects, just not rare Lego sets :-) For some reason, making a Lego set a limited run doesn't really affect me. I buy Lego sets because I like the look of them, that's all.

    But I'm not going to get into a technical argument over it, I really don't like that sort of thing. I just like stating my thoughts about certain things.

    I'm not a reseller, no way, I don't have the funds available to invest in anything, so I'll stop talking on this thread and just read with interest. :-)

    Of course, I should say this is all in my honest opinion, don't take it the wrong way ;-)

  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    LegoFanTexas said:

    6, if they ship me the 2 more that my family ordered for me. :)

    I got 7, all perfect boxes and all bought on the same VIP account. Anybody beat that?
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    I have a feeling this will come back in stock in the next few weeks.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,556
    ^ It's severely limited edition lego. Buy it, wait a couple of weeks, sell it. It may not be available at retail now, but it will be available to buy new for quite a while (albeit at inflated prices). I reckon many of those sold are for investment, not for play.
  • TheOneVeyronianTheOneVeyronian Member Posts: 1,372
    ^ I agree, I reckon not many of those bought will actually even get opened. I may well have bought one on the day of release, if only I had the money then (slightly annoyed but thinking positive face) :-)
    Even though I'm not into large Technic sets.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    edited August 2013
    TheOneVeyronian said:

    ^ I agree, I reckon not many of those bought will actually even get opened. I may well have bought one on the day of release, if only I had the money then (slightly annoyed but thinking positive face) :-)
    Even though I'm not into large Technic sets.

    Wonder if the ones being sold on ebay for nearly double rrp atm are being bought by collectors to be opened or resellers and speculators ???
  • BillybrownBillybrown Member Posts: 748
    edited August 2013
    Legofanscott said:

    TheOneVeyronian said:

    ^ I agree, I reckon not many of those bought will actually even get opened. I may well have bought one on the day of release, if only I had the money then (slightly annoyed but thinking positive face) :-)
    Even though I'm not into large Technic sets.

    Wonder if the ones being sold on ebay for nearly double rrp atm are being bought by collectors to be opened or resellers and speculators ???
    I suspect re-sellers. As checking ebay out (in the uk) showed the same buyer getting all 3 from one seller, and cleared another seller out of 2 for around the £250 mark.

    I can see this hitting £500 (in the uk) by Christmas at this rate, so they will have done well even at £250.

  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,382
    JamesJT said:

    ...
    I got 7, all perfect boxes and all bought on the same VIP account. Anybody beat that?

    That was a dumb move.

    ColoradoBricks
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