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I could see this Triple in price by this time next year and I could see it over $1,000 way less than 10 years considering the low number of them that were made..
The real value in this set is the fact that each one is distinctly numbered via a printed tile, not to mention the new things that had been done with the box..
I promise you that at some point before then I'll sell one for $600 or more, but it may not be the "average selling price". :)
Market value on Bricklink, eBay, or Amazon?
USA, Europe, or World?
Average in past week, 30 days, 6 months?
Include damaged/incomplete boxes, or just MISB?
Shipping included or not?
Wish it were simple... but it isn't...
Let me just say this... If this set doesn't triple by Christmas 2014, something went really wrong. Somewhere on Bricklink I'm sure you'll get cheaper copies, but I'll put my money on eBay's average 30 day sold price on Buy-It-Now in the USA being $600 15 months from now.
That is a bit over a year, but summer isn't a fair time to compare, sales are terrible this time of year. Give it until November 2014 to reach a decent number. :)
Sports bikes like #8420 do well. #8051 was regularly available for £12 at Argos and now sells for £75+.
Who is going to pay £150 for #8053 when you can have #42009 for the same price?
Not sure how technic does in US, but I send used #8880, #8455, #853, etc across the pond regularly.
#8265 EOL'd 2 years ago and still doesn't make 1.5x RRP. It great for parts though.
Here's a recently completed auction for a NIB 8265 for $235...
I picked up a bunch of #8145 Ferrari Fiorano sets back in late 2008 when Lego was clearancing them out at 1/2 price for $54.99... Easily the best investment that I have made with Lego..
The #8285 Tow Truck is another set that was a money maker.. I had quite a few of those.. I think they were only $120 new... Now you can get $500 fairly easy...
Sales history on eBay is a possibility, but it gets messy when "free shipping" is a part of the auction because that will inflate the sale price. Brickpickr, by nature of them scraping data and having to decipher some of these variables is also sloppy.
I'm offering the bet for fun, so simplicity for resolving the bet is important.
P.S. I think I'll be relocating some of this conversation to the predictions thread.
I think the Technic sets fly under the radar. Most everyone is gaga over SW, modulars, or the latest theme. All the while, there are some great Technic sets that people don't think to buy until they've EOL'd.
And, yes. The tow truck was awesome! Most all large Technic sets are very nice.
I think we got our 8265 sets from Toys R Us, but I honestly don't remember what we paid for them... It could have been $60, but the $80 just sticks in my head... Maybe it was from Lego shop at home...
Another nice score was the #8258 Crane trucks for $74.99 on clearance... I remember Lego having the sale on Christmas Eve at 1/2 price... I called everyone that I knew to jump on it, but I think only one guy actually did...
The largest and most detailed Technic set I've built was #8258 Crane Truck - amazing really, the detail in the gearing, the feature run off the motor and the 8 wheel design...
But there is zero chance I could take those parts and make something else with them. Not that I'd want to, it hurts too much to take Technic apart. :)
Once it goes together, I have no interest in taking it apart as all those little pins hurt!
I might end up selling that one put together, even for less money, as the time and effort to take it apart is just not worth it. :(
Yesterday we took #10198 - Tantive IV apart, that took 5 minutes to break into very small parts and another 25 minutes to completely take apart every single piece.
I suspect #8258 would be an all afternoon (or all day) affair. :)
I would like to throw my 2 cents in, I just built the 8110 Unimog this past weekend. Awesome build, my opinion better than 8258 because of the pneumatics! So I bought the Service Truck 42008 just for that reason (the pneumatics!)
No way I would consider wasting hours of my time taking those things apart, when I already spend hours putting them together! Of course, I fully disclose that the set will be in chunks when I sell it. I once forgot to note that in one of my ebay listings, and the buyer changed his mind when I told him how it would be shipped. I can't say I blame him lol.
In the large lot of old NISB sets I bought last year, I sold all the Technic sets and most did not go for what I would have thought ($100 average). This was partly because I listed as an Auction and not BIN, plus I paid very little for them so I was not too fussed I just wanted to get rid of them to recover some of the money I had spent on the entire lot. In hindsight I probably would not have bothered selling if I knew the price I was going to get, they would be in my own collection.
These sets were #8431 #8292 #8295 #8436, but I also had #8275 Motorized Bulldozer and this I sold as an Auction for $475. If I had been patient and sold it BIN I think I could have got up to $100 more.
So when we look at #41999 I think it would fall into the #8275 category as far as popularity, compared to the other sets I listed. Will be interesting to see where it ends up over the next 18 months, I'm thinking $400+, not as sure about $600+ but time will tell.
It will do well, but sell slowly, and that doesn't help cashflow very much. :)
I had been prioritising the then soon to be EOL #8043
I spoke with a customer service representative at [email protected], and she stated more #41999 sets would be available August 24. Any guesses on whether these will actually be for sale, or just used to fulfill back orders?
I think it looks better than the standard. Should every technic set be rebuilt in blue?
I guess someone actually bought one to open HAHA
Oh well thats one less sealed one in existence :p