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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ If they make more than 20K and reuse plate numbers, sooner or later they would get caught, this is the age of the Internet, with enough people posting numbers online, you would imagine that if 2 or 5 or 10 of each plate were produced, it would be discovered at some point.

    So if they limit to only 20K, this will do well. If they make a general release after this, who knows... it will do ok, but nothing special.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    #41999 price is rising fast. Seen a couple sell for £200, then £220. What will this go for?
    http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/400539247487?ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1423.l2649

    Anybody with a pile of #41999 s should be happy.
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    It seems my 2 #41999 are on backorder. I guess only time will tell if I'm successful or not. Particularly annoying that I was there at midnight but for some reason my bank decided it was a suspicious order and blocked my card...

    Strangely enough they shipped the free gift already though.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,770
    See the other thread about 41999: http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/11702/41999-crawler-exclusive-edition-set-is-now-available-on-s-h-us#latest
    It sounds like they are limiting them to 20K and not doing another release.
    Im tempted to get another one, but not really wanting to spend the money on another...
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Thanks for the confirmation. Got my fill. Open box, remove packing slip, slap on label and collect $100 for passing go.
  • MCNwakeboardMCNwakeboard VirginiaMember Posts: 294
    edited August 2013
    Not exactly $100 right now, even if you sell on ebay for $300, you are going to be charged $45 by ebay/paypal and there are shipping charges on top of that since most of the ones on Ebay have free shipping. Not saying you won't make money on it...
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Just need to wait until Christmas. A pretty short wait.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited August 2013
    Not going to let these go for $300 lol.....$399 plus sleigh fee for santa to place this under the tree.
  • pvancil27pvancil27 Member Posts: 588
    edited August 2013
    *looks left*

    *looks right*

    *sighs*

    Ok, I'll keep quiet...
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    pillpod said:

    I like how the brickset community hates on Toys R Us for marking up LEGO products but everyone here won't think twice about buying something strictly for reselling immediately...at a huge markup.

    First, what set are you talking about?

    Second, isn't using "everyone" a little unfair?
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    And Third, this is the Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their secondary market value. Go complain in one of the dozens of threads elsewhere that hate on resellers.
  • pillpodpillpod Member Posts: 273
    @tensor: I think you're focusing on the wrong point of my comment. But you're probably right...not everyone. But a lot of people, most; less than everyone and more than a little.

    @pharmjod: I'm aware of what thread it is. Something in the thread sparked the thought (and comment). Would you prefer I make a new thread and/or necro an old thread to talk about it?
  • 12651265 Member Posts: 954
    pillpod said:

    I like how the brickset community hates on Toys R Us for marking up LEGO products but everyone here won't think twice about buying something strictly for reselling immediately...at a huge markup.

    Oh come on, there's no hypocrites within the brickset community. ;)

  • pvancil27pvancil27 Member Posts: 588
    edited August 2013
    @pillpod My dislike for the re-selling practice is noted, but even I would say it's not the right thread. I see comments in here that make me feel the same but I understand there will never be a reasonable discussion come out of it. (in this thread at least) I get a little irritated when the Re-selling stuff spills into other threads (which in fairness it doesnt very often anymore) and for that reason it's really not fair to spill the "Anti re-seller" sentiment into this thread.
  • pillpodpillpod Member Posts: 273
    ^ Good point. We'll leave this discussion in it's infancy and pick it up another time in the appropriate thread.
  • wrangler6915wrangler6915 USA - Lincoln NEMember Posts: 502
    This thread going off topic? Surely you jest?
    Pitfall69FollowsCloselymadforLEGOjasor
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    You guys will love this one. I'm building shelves and my dad walks in and notices a stack of Fire Brigades. He says "These must be worth something since you have so many". I told him "Please. Take a few. I implore you!!" Hahahaha.

    Thought I would lighten the mood a little :)
    BuriedinBrickspillpodjasor
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ I say dump all the FB's, then take that cash and buy all the #41999's you can. :-)
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    pillpod said:

    I like how the brickset community hates on Toys R Us for marking up LEGO products but everyone here won't think twice about buying something strictly for reselling immediately...at a huge markup.

    I don't hate on Toys R Us, just like any retailer they are entitled to sell their products at whatever price they wish. However it's also my right to choose not to shop there if there are other retailers with better prices.

    Same goes for resellers though. If there are a hundred resellers selling a set at $100 and then 1 reseller selling it at $800, they're not gonna get much interest are they?

    Welcome to capitalism. The US (Government at least) have clearly decided this is the best method, they've been willing to go to war for it in the past.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    pillpod said:

    I like how the brickset community hates on Toys R Us for marking up LEGO products but everyone here won't think twice about buying something strictly for reselling immediately...at a huge markup.

    The problem with your example is that TRU marks them up while they are still current products and available everywhere else for RRP or less.

    Resellers wait until the sets are retired, then marks them up.

    If TRU did the same, sell for RRP for awhile, then hold some stock back for post-retirement, then mark them up, I'd have no problem with that whatsoever.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    cloaked7 said:

    ^ I say dump all the FB's, then take that cash and buy all the #41999's you can. :-)

    You guys REALLY think that this set is going to be a big seller? I don't personally know one person that owns a Technic Set.
  • pvancil27pvancil27 Member Posts: 588


    Resellers wait until the sets are retired, then marks them up.

    #21102 #9574

    (You knew it was coming, admit it.) ;)
    FollowsClosely
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Those sets were not available at RRP at the time they were sold higher, many people thought at the time they would be retired (or they were defacto retired by not being replaced at retail).

    Minecraft and Lloyd are outliers, TRU marks up City and Creator sets that are in stock every where, every day.
  • pvancil27pvancil27 Member Posts: 588
    edited August 2013
    Now is where the argument of if the re-sellers being there was artificially creating (or magnifying) the shortage, but again, I think its not fair to start that convo in this thread. Just wanted to bust your balls a little.

    Also, to remind you only a Sith deals in absolutes Darth Texas.

    Edit: BTW, one of the stupidest lines from that movie. That statement is an absolute, therefore Obi Wan is calling himself a Sith.
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    Ok, I need some advice. I just picked up #9471 #9464 #6869 and #9468 for 50% off. I can pick up a few more of each except the Vamp Castle (only had one). They also had #79001 but I didn't get it. The question is, what potential do you guys see these sets having? I feel I will be able to sell them at full price around Christmas, but is there a real winner in this group? And even if one of these is not a home run do you think I'll have any problem selling them at full price either at Christmas or after they are EOL? (cloaked7 I already have my #41999 ready to go)
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    Speaking of #41999, where did that thread go?
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Trenth said:

    Ok, I need some advice. I just picked up #9471 #9464 #6869 and #9468 for 50% off. I can pick up a few more of each except the Vamp Castle (only had one). They also had #79001 but I didn't get it. The question is, what potential do you guys see these sets having? I feel I will be able to sell them at full price around Christmas, but is there a real winner in this group? And even if one of these is not a home run do you think I'll have any problem selling them at full price either at Christmas or after they are EOL? (cloaked7 I already have my #41999 ready to go)

    I didn't bother looking up all the set numbers you listed, but you really can't go wrong with anything if you are buying at 50% off. If it doesn't work out, you can at least get your money back. Your only risk here is tying up money for a bit.
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    ^yeah that was my thinking as well. The sets are urak-hai army, vamp hearse, vamp castle, quin jet. The set I didnt pick up was the Mirkwood spiders.
  • MathBuilderMathBuilder Member Posts: 150
    edited August 2013
    gmpirate said:

    [...] you really can't go wrong with anything if you are buying at 50% off.

    #7591
    http://www.bricklink.com/catalogPG.asp?S=7591-1-&colorID=0&v=D&viewExclude=Y&cID=Y

    That said, you are safe with those sets Trenth. Had I come across them at 50% I would have stocked up on the Uruks and assuming there was enough money, then on the Quinjets.
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    I picked up the last two Urak-hai sets. They did have one more Quinjet. Luckily I was there late, so I plan on heading back for more in the morning to pick up as much as I can. Luckily I had just done a pretty big turn around on some sets I brought on craigslist, so even through I might deplete my LEGO investment fund, I think it is a safe call. I just don't know about the hearse or the Mirk-wood set. That was the two they had the most of. Oh they did have some Galaxy squad, but that is completely out of my wheelhouse.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    pillpod said:

    I like how the brickset community hates on Toys R Us for marking up LEGO products but everyone here won't think twice about buying something strictly for reselling immediately...at a huge markup.

    Actually, I think you are a bit off on this one. Resellers here don't have a problem with TRU markups "in general". They are free to charge whatever they like. And we are free to shop wherever we like. Its a free country -- for the most part anyway.

    This issue we have with TRU is their deceptive pricing strategies. Like marking up sets before a sale or BOGO. Advertising a Lego sale with no exclusions and then not allowing the sale on many sets.

    Advertising a loyalty program and then limiting how many points they can spend at a time thus deflating their worth -- and having short expirations -- and marking up sets during that period. So in effect, their loyalty program is worthless for the most part.

    Advertising a "free" gift with purchase and then shortly running out -- even if it was in the basket at time of purchase!

    I'm sure there are many more examples, but I'm sure you get the point.
    MathBuildercloaked7pharmjodYellowcastlejasor
  • pillpodpillpod Member Posts: 273
    It seems I've struck a cord with a lot of you. Why so defensive?
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    ^Troll!
    TheLoneTensorpillpod
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,458
    pillpod said:

    It seems I've struck a cord with a lot of you. Why so defensive?

    I have only seen thoughtful, well written replies to the question you posed. Not sure what you are after unless it is a fight and surely we have better things to do than that.
    cloaked7TheLoneTensory2joshLegoFanTexasdragonhawk
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    pillpod said:

    I like how the brickset community hates on Toys R Us for marking up LEGO products but everyone here won't think twice about buying something strictly for reselling immediately...at a huge markup.

    I'm sure somewhere on the Internet there is a message board with lego fans who buy sets after eol and whine about us like we whine about TRU...

    Poster #1 - "That LFT is the worst...he won't sell anything for less than a 200% markup over RRP!"

    Poster #2 - "I know, I won't pay anything more than 150% so he's not getting my business, greedy bastard."

  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Pitfall69 said:

    cloaked7 said:

    ^ I say dump all the FB's, then take that cash and buy all the #41999's you can. :-)

    You guys REALLY think that this set is going to be a big seller?
    Simply put, I think x of 20K will do the trick.
    Pitfall69 said:

    I don't personally know one person that owns a Technic Set.

    Ahem... you need to get out more. :-)
    FollowsClosely
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Pitfall69 said:

    cloaked7 said:

    ^ I say dump all the FB's, then take that cash and buy all the #41999's you can. :-)

    You guys REALLY think that this set is going to be a big seller? I don't personally know one person that owns a Technic Set.
    I think there's a decent market for the flagships, but only the flagships. All of those have done very well in the aftermarket (though we have yet to see how the less-than-stellar crawler will fare). I tend to feel it's the closest thing to "adult" Lego we have. Plus, it speaks to the engineer in many of us.

    Anyway, this is the first limited edition flagship Technic model we've ever had (I think), so I think it's a decent bet.
    Pitfall69
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited August 2013
    Who knows where #41999 will end up, but some technic sets do ok. Look at #8275 Motorized Bulldozer US retail was $150, I sold a sealed one for $450 earlier in the year. Sure it's been retired for 5 years (i got mine only last year for $120) but still its 3x your money.
  • pillpodpillpod Member Posts: 273
    I'm not trolling. But we'll leave it where it is. Sorry for going off topic.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    There is really no need to apologize for going off topic. If we all did that, there would be pages and pages of "I'm sorry" to read through. Right after "When is FB going to EOL?". ;)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    tensor said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    cloaked7 said:

    ^ I say dump all the FB's, then take that cash and buy all the #41999's you can. :-)

    You guys REALLY think that this set is going to be a big seller? I don't personally know one person that owns a Technic Set.
    I think there's a decent market for the flagships, but only the flagships. All of those have done very well in the aftermarket (though we have yet to see how the less-than-stellar crawler will fare). I tend to feel it's the closest thing to "adult" Lego we have. Plus, it speaks to the engineer in many of us.

    Anyway, this is the first limited edition flagship Technic model we've ever had (I think), so I think it's a decent bet.
    Well, I might grab one or two, but I'm probably too late. I never owned a Technic set, yet I still became an engineer ;) I haven't done any engineering in almost 12 years. Where has the time gone?

    Which leads me to another question. Is there a big market for Technic parts and pieces?

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,770
    edited August 2013

    pillpod said:

    I like how the brickset community hates on Toys R Us for marking up LEGO products but everyone here won't think twice about buying something strictly for reselling immediately...at a huge markup.

    The problem with your example is that TRU marks them up while they are still current products and available everywhere else for RRP or less.

    Resellers wait until the sets are retired, then marks them up.

    If TRU did the same, sell for RRP for awhile, then hold some stock back for post-retirement, then mark them up, I'd have no problem with that whatsoever.
    Technically I had seen TRU occasionally have sets after an EOL and then they marked them up, but I have not seen that practice for a while so I'm guessing someone told them to stop.
    gmpirate said:

    pillpod said:

    I like how the brickset community hates on Toys R Us for marking up LEGO products but everyone here won't think twice about buying something strictly for reselling immediately...at a huge markup.

    Actually, I think you are a bit off on this one. Resellers here don't have a problem with TRU markups "in general". They are free to charge whatever they like. And we are free to shop wherever we like. Its a free country -- for the most part anyway.

    This issue we have with TRU is their deceptive pricing strategies. Like marking up sets before a sale or BOGO. Advertising a Lego sale with no exclusions and then not allowing the sale on many sets.

    Advertising a loyalty program and then limiting how many points they can spend at a time thus deflating their worth -- and having short expirations -- and marking up sets during that period. So in effect, their loyalty program is worthless for the most part.

    Advertising a "free" gift with purchase and then shortly running out -- even if it was in the basket at time of purchase!

    I'm sure there are many more examples, but I'm sure you get the point.
    I think TRU found a way around this bad business practice pricing complaint..
    That is why all sets are generally 20-40% over RRP as a standard price, then mark them down in between BOGOs or sales as 'sale prices' (the rest of us call this normal RRP) then they simply remove the 'sale' price and charge their retail price during a BOGO or sale.
    I'm sure one of the reasons they switched to this is because I think it is legal (though still a bit despicable) whereas I'm guessing when they were raising prices up before BOGOs they were called out on it at some point by BBB or govt.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    There is really no need to apologize for going off topic. If we all did that, there would be pages and pages of "I'm sorry" to read through. Right after "When is FB going to EOL?". ;)

    I'm sorry...

    When is DS going to EOL?
    Pitfall69
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Don't humor him. :-)
  • incredulousincredulous Member Posts: 18

    The problem with your example is that TRU marks them up while they are still current products and available everywhere else for RRP or less.

    Resellers wait until the sets are retired, then marks them up.

    If TRU did the same, sell for RRP for awhile, then hold some stock back for post-retirement, then mark them up, I'd have no problem with that whatsoever.

    And the problem with your explanation is that right now on your Amazon store you have over a hundred current sets listed for double or triple RRP.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,901
    Nothing wrong with that. You build up watchers and don't have to re-price the sets after they EOL. As a reseller, you have to work smart, not harder.
    Pitfall69
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    edited August 2013
    ^^ caveat emptor. If a buyer (on the internet no less) pays double the going rate for something without doing their pricing homework, shame on them.
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    edited August 2013

    The problem with your example is that TRU marks them up while they are still current products and available everywhere else for RRP or less.

    Resellers wait until the sets are retired, then marks them up.

    If TRU did the same, sell for RRP for awhile, then hold some stock back for post-retirement, then mark them up, I'd have no problem with that whatsoever.

    And the problem with your explanation is that right now on your Amazon store you have over a hundred current sets listed for double or triple RRP.
    He also doesn't have a contract with TLG and can price sets at any price point he wants. @LegoFanTexas is not TRU. Also, I think he knows his listed sets will not sell at 3x RRP. If one or two happen to sell then that's great. By pricing them this high, his store looks full and he gets "foot traffic", even if nobody purchases the sets. I know some stores set prices high because they actually don't have the product in stock, but if someone is "stupid" enough to purchase one, then I'm sure the store owner can grab one.
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