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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    I was just in Meijer earlier today and saw Helm's Deep clearanced for $97ish. The Uruk Hai pack was not marked down.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    edited July 2013
    ^Ha, no doubt the Uruk Hai is a great seller. Helms Deep is an expensive set for the average fan. Probably no need to clearance Uruk Hai, but that doesn't mean production on both might stop or has stopped around the same time.

    It is just my theory ;)

    As we all know every Target is not the same. I really wish mine was one of those mythical Target stores that clearance their product 75%
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Helms in the real question. Thinking back...Hogwarts 4842 shows as EOL'd in November, just thinking that's likely a similar timeline for Helms.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    Possibly. It is interesting that Hogwarts EOL'd before Hogwarts Castle seeing it was out for less of a time, but they both EOL'd within 2 months of each other, so that is why I'm going with my theory that Uruk Hai and Helms deep will go "around" the same time.
  • FenrisAkashiFenrisAkashi Member Posts: 242


    It's been involved in the latest round of Target clearance, so it's possible someone ran through them in your area already.

    It wasnt in this area unfortunately. I've been hunting for a great target clearance in this are for a while but the best I've found so far was 2 Shelobs at 50% off and 1 damaged Mech Creator set for ~40% off.
    I had seen many murmurings on the web that Helms was likely to go EOL soon as well.

    I do see Amazon has them in stock still so yes it is likely not EOL yet.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,258
    If hoarding at RRP is your game Orc Forge is still on Target's site.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Sshh! That was supposed to be my secret! :)
    Pitfall69
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,713
    jasor said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    jasor said:

    ^The custom Bith heads out there are impressive, but oh to have Lego versions...

    All you have to do is pop off the Star Wars action figure heads and I believe they can pop right on the stud.

    *mind.....blown.
    Mind blown? How do you think people are eBay are selling 'custom' SW figures?
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    Yeah, it is perfect for Lego Minifigures because the heads of a minifigure are not proportional to its body.

    Now I want to go pull off some heads. Excuse me for a moment ...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,713
    #41999 is now on sale at LEGO [email protected] in US
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Interesting...

    Amazon has sold more than 1,000 copies of Minecraft in the past few days. They have restocked twice, most recently on Monday (two days ago) with 700 copies, and are down to just 17 left.

    So they are perhaps selling 400-500 copies a day. This might have legs left in it! :)
    Pitfall69
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    Minecraft still sells on eBay for around $50. That's with it in stock everywhere. When it does eventually retire, it will climb rapidly once again in my opinion. This set definitely has legs. I think the new sets will make the original even more desirable.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Wow limit 2 on the BTTF sets in the USA just below free shipping. With the site crawling I am not going to bother with 21103 or 41999. I will probably hit up the local lego store at opening tomorrow and grab one 21103 and keep my powder dry for better picks on BF.
  • Gavin83Gavin83 London, UKMember Posts: 251
    It seems that 41999 is already OOS in the UK and most people aren't even out of bed yet...

    Is a set selling out in 6 hours some kind of record?
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Well apparently they will be producing more as they will ship in September....."limited edition" means unlimited in lego speak lol.
  • LootefiskLootefisk Member Posts: 67
    Technically it's listed as "Exclusive" edition. But yeah....
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,503
    Same thing happened with the B-Wing on May the 4th, went out of stock early with so many orders crashing their system and then came back later in the day. I expect the Crawler to reappear once they straighten things out.
  • Gavin83Gavin83 London, UKMember Posts: 251
    Hope so. The Website is screwed, I've not been able to place an order yet. I'm getting multiple errors that really shouldn't be appearing.

    There is now an error saying that the VIP system isn't working, promotions aren't working and stock levels aren't accurate so it's likely it may reappear at some point today.
  • 09090900909090 Member Posts: 47
    How long will Spongebob stay on the market? I feel that Nickelodeon or whoever owns Spongebob ordered LEGO to make these sets and keep them on the market. I have never seen sets from theme like Spongebob surviving such a long ammount of time. Also, as far as I know there are no new sets planned, right?
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    21103 is now on Amazon and still in stock despite multiple deal threads alerting the previous minecraft hoarders.....looks like TLG learned from the minecraft fiasco and produced a boatload of these. 41999 looks like a good seller but way more than 20k are being sold so no doubt multiple runs will be made (wonder if they will restart at license plate #1 or #20,001?).
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 934
    I've just been to a store to get a 41999 and the guy said they've sold 10 today easily and that was 11.30am! I recon these will sell out in about ~2 weeks or so!
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Renny said:

    Minecraft still sells on eBay for around $50. That's with it in stock everywhere. When it does eventually retire, it will climb rapidly once again in my opinion. This set definitely has legs. I think the new sets will make the original even more desirable.

    I agree. That's how I see it playing out.

  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    0909090 said:

    How long will Spongebob stay on the market? I feel that Nickelodeon or whoever owns Spongebob ordered LEGO to make these sets and keep them on the market. I have never seen sets from theme like Spongebob surviving such a long ammount of time. Also, as far as I know there are no new sets planned, right?

    Disclaimer - My avatar does NOT make me an expert on all things Spongebob. :-)

    Like Minecraft, a lot of LEGO fans don't 'get' Spongebob. That's makes sense, you'll only get it if you are a fan or a parent/friend/relative of a fan. Spongebob is for the 1-8 yr age group? So, unless you are a parent you aren't going to know what a kid thinks about Spongebob or the LEGO sets. I guess the LEGO sets will run as long as the cartoon does, depending on Nick and LEGO having a contract. I don't know if any new sets are planned.

  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 159
    Thoughts on the collectability of the Back to the Future Delorean? I absolutely hate the model, but seems to be popular.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Just my opinion, but I think the Cuusoo designation is as much of a draw as the set itself. Personally I got it, because of Cuusoo. But, also (just not as much so) because the model is neat. Yeah, the design isn't the greatest (maybe if it were a larger set?), but it's a one of a kind vehicle. So, I think it will be popular.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    21103 is a nice set but IMO since there will be no shortage it will kill the collectability significantly. The spelling error is nice but I don't see it bumping the price all that much.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    cloaked7 said:

    Disclaimer - My avatar does NOT make me an expert on all things Spongebob. :-)

    Lies. We know you have a Spongebob shrine in your home.

  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited August 2013
    ^ Good one. he he

    (As I take a sip of my pineapple smoothie from my official Spongebob cup.)
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440

    41999 looks like a good seller but way more than 20k are being sold so no doubt multiple runs will be made (wonder if they will restart at license plate #1 or #20,001?).

    What makes you believe more than 20k are being sold?

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,523
    For extras after the exclusive edition, the number plate is likely to be some generic number.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    JamesJT said:

    41999 looks like a good seller but way more than 20k are being sold so no doubt multiple runs will be made (wonder if they will restart at license plate #1 or #20,001?).

    What makes you believe more than 20k are being sold?

    With the last confirmed limited set available (i.e 10227 at 50% off) we got the
    "call for product availability" when stock ran low and then we moved to "sold out". I show 41999 being available to order in every [email protected] site on the planet. Did they just forget to update the status on every single site? Has TLG ever produced a limited set available to the masses with no further runs? I expect this to be at TRU for $229 by xmas.

    Now if this had moved to "call for product availability" early on in europe that would have been a big clue as to the numbers available....as it stands I can order a few thousand with delivery in 3 weeks...that is what tells me more than 20k are being sold.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 934
    Well given that the site clearly states your buying one of 20000 and back of the box says Limited Edition, if they make more I'd return it for false advertising and completely lose any respect for TLG for that!
    vitreolummadforLEGO
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    stevemack said:

    Well given that the site clearly states your buying one of 20000 and back of the box says Limited Edition, if they make more I'd return it for false advertising and completely lose any respect for TLG for that!

    Already did that when they fired the locals so they could open the Chinese factories mate! Now they are just another payday....payday is Sep 1 not Aug 1
    ;)

  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816
    stevemack said:

    Well given that the site clearly states your buying one of 20000 and back of the box says Limited Edition, if they make more I'd return it for false advertising and completely lose any respect for TLG for that!

    And they''ll resell it immediately to someone who thinks they've only made 20000.

  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440

    JamesJT said:

    41999 looks like a good seller but way more than 20k are being sold so no doubt multiple runs will be made (wonder if they will restart at license plate #1 or #20,001?).

    What makes you believe more than 20k are being sold?

    ...as it stands I can order a few thousand with delivery in 3 weeks...
    I thought the limit was 2!
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 934
    Lol! Lets see what happens, we're all speculating at the end of the day!
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited August 2013
    Maybe it will only be limited to 20K, maybe not. I don't know how it will all shake out, but I'd rather be in the 'Have' category than the 'Have Not' category on this one. Fortunately, I just snagged the last one at the Concord Mills, NC store!
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^I picked up two from there yesterday. They told me they had only received 15 in.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited August 2013
    @FatMatt Sweet! The staff there is awesome. The store manager snagged the last one for me after I contacted him via email. I have visited the store several times, but I live out of town. He's shipping it to me for free.

    How do you know you have one of the limited edition 20K?
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,258
    Ordered one from Alpharetta just now. Hate to pay the extra (shipping + tax = $28) but want to be sure I get one. For the record, however, before you all inundate them with calls, the guy at first said they were not shipping and would not hold any in store. But another manager must have been privy to the conversation; he asked who it was, both of them then remembered me from the week prior when I had visited and we discussed (amongst other things) shipping the set. So maybe I got "lucky." If anyone wants to give it a shot the number is 770 569 0673.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    cloaked7 said:


    How do you know you have one of the limited edition 20K?

    It says on the box. You don't know which "x of 20,000" you have until you open the box and check the number plate sticker.

    How do you know ther will be more than limited edition 20k?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,713
    edited August 2013
    Ordered one online and got the Hot dog cart with it.. Id rather have that then the space set.
    I would say as long as the description on the LEGO website says limited to 20K then those are limited, could they put out a 'regular' version? Sure but then they are competing directly with the 9398 set, which I doubt they would do.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,523
    ^ They would do it, they are doing it now. 20000 times.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Confirmed order ship.. Phew. Got the Delorean, LOTR Pirate ship, and the hot dog cart.
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 159
    Wow, I know there is not much to the Tower of Orthanc, but darn is it impressive in person. Tallest lego set in awhile, for sure. I wish they had scrapped the tree guy, made it a little taller and I think it could have been a sure fire home run,
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    Just put my order in for #41999. I hope I don't get burned on this decision. Surely this thing will sell like crazy during Christmas right?
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Who knows, a lot depends on how many are available and for how long. If they only make 20K (which everyone doubts) it will be a huge profit maker. If they make more I figure the first 20K will still bring a premium price. I don't think a person will lose money on the set, either way. Getting 1, or even 2, is a no brainer to me.
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    ^ I agree. I convinced myself by looking at the ebay prices right now. People are already spending $300. Has LEGO ever advertised this upfront about the number of a product being produced and then went back on it? I know a lot of people think they did this with the MineCraft set, but did they ever state it on the site as a selling point like they have with #41999?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    ^ If they make more than 20K and reuse plate numbers, sooner or later they would get caught, this is the age of the Internet, with enough people posting numbers online, you would imagine that if 2 or 5 or 10 of each plate were produced, it would be discovered at some point.

    So if they limit to only 20K, this will do well. If they make a general release after this, who knows... it will do ok, but nothing special.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    #41999 price is rising fast. Seen a couple sell for £200, then £220. What will this go for?
    http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/400539247487?ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1423.l2649

    Anybody with a pile of #41999 s should be happy.
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