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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    In regards to the Back to the Future Cuuso model, I think a lot of negative comments were handed out when people didn't know it was a 3-in-1 type set. I still think it's a stinker (as a set) but that doesn't mean it will be a bad investment (just look at how many people are paying above msrp on ebay right now).

    This thread is funny at times though. I've seen instances of people posting their opinions of a set's future value only to be met with spiteful retaliation. Then when these same people don't post anymore they are called out for not sharing or knowing what they are doing. I don't blame them, I wouldn't post too if my integrity was questioned every time.

    Darned if you do and darned if you don't.

    How about building your own opinion on sets and not relying on others to do the research for you. I enjoy reading this thread and what others opinions are on various sets but it doesn't dictate where I invest my money. I might jump on a set I didn't know about at times sure, but to heavily depend on a thread on an internet forum is silly imho.
    dougts
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    cloaked7 said:

    Monster Fighter Ghost Pirate Ship. Now, that's a mouthful! :-) I love it!

    Yeah, remember this...
    LegofanscottHarryPotterLoverGurooo
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Helms Deep is a good set in my opinion.. $200 prices out the set for kids, very rarely do kids get $200 toys for birthday/Christmas. The Urak Hai add on makes it even better.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,713
    Helms deep is a good set.. if you found it for under 100 bucks, if not under 90 of less.
    I think that most people think that most LoTR, and TLR for that matter, are nice sets, but not for what LEGO is charging for them, and I believe the general feeling is that if you cannot find them for 25-30+% off then buying them to sell later may not be worth it.
    FollowsCloselyy2josh
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404

    Helms Deep is a good set in my opinion.. $200 prices out the set for kids, very rarely do kids get $200 toys for birthday/Christmas. The Urak Hai add on makes it even better.

    :) You really should look at the half a billion dollars worth of Power Wheels sold every year before you say that. :)

    The market for $200 toys is larger than you think.
    margot
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I think parents see Power Wheels in a much different way than Lego.. Power Wheels can be played with pretty roughly, as kids like to do. Lose a few pieces from $200 set that took 5 hours to build and the kid loses interest. I'm a Lego fanatic and I'm not giving my kids a $200 set. Thats just me though.
  • pvancil27pvancil27 Member Posts: 588
    edited July 2013
    Biggest issue most of the "good ole boys™" had with LotR is they misjudged the core of their hardcore fan audience. LotR is much closer to a SW type fan base (although globally smaller) then a PotC fan. I think it lags a tick behind HP but not much.

    As for the quietness, the problem is they quite often hoped on the obvious stuff. For example it doesnt take a rocket scientist to go Modular's sell well, fire Stations sell well, so a Modular Fire station will sell well. I like other have said watch this thread for the discussion to try and not miss sets (and because you evil evil re-sellers are pretty funny with the OT rants.) The main this most people discussed here are the 10XXX sets and higher priced large retail sets. When lower priced things get brought up, often times they are blown off and said to be "not worth the time or effort." There are exceptions such as the Lloyd spinners and polys, but sets like Burrows was really on no ones list that I can remember, until "oh hey, Burrow is going for a f*** ton of money."

    I think the other issue is too often, they over-analyse things. when Ewok Village was announced, one of the big complaints that was mostly from the "good ole boys™" was that it should have had more parts to hit the 10cents per piece mark. There there are complaints about the UCS Obi's fighter that it should have come with a boostring, or the SSD needed to be a foot longer.

    There is also this concept that many have that a set isn't worth the time if it doesn't double or triple value inside a set time.

    A lot of the discussion was what's going to be the next UCS Falcon, even if people deny that. Thats what they want. What's happened is the two mest bets for a possible huge return have gotten extended run lives for the exact same reason people speculated on them.



    "good ole boys™" is a licensed registered trademark of Mathew Inc, all rights reserved, copyright 2013
    Dougouty2joshFollowsClosely
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Renny said:

    This thread is funny at times though. I've seen instances of people posting their opinions of a set's future value only to be met with spiteful retaliation. Then when these same people don't post anymore they are called out for not sharing or knowing what they are doing. I don't blame them, I wouldn't post too if my integrity was questioned every time.

    Darned if you do and darned if you don't.

    That is exactly how I feel.

    I said a year ago that LEGO could make a million copies of Minecraft and sell every single one of them, and was mocked pretty hard at the time.

    History has, I believe, proved me correct on that one.
  • pvancil27pvancil27 Member Posts: 588
    JamesJT said:

    We need a system where the good ol boys sit down and discuss the sets, agree what's in the best interest of all the resellers, and then do it.

    I think the "good ole boys™" need to be brought it to form a review committee that reviews all sales posts in the marketplace forum to ensure they have prices listed.
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    Cheers fir the weathertip feedback chaps.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,713
    #9476 Orc Forge is now listed as 'Temporarily out of Stock" at [email protected] US
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    tensor said:


    Yeah, remember this...

    Damn that tourist van set would have been cute...all done up in scooby doo colors.

  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,502
    I am willing to guess a lot of people are really only wanting to talk about Death Stars and Fire Brigades because no one who has invested a lot in sets X and Y want to present a solid case for why everyone else should also invest in X and Y and potentially diminish their returns.

    Also it pleases me to no end that this thread has gotten lively again.
    LegoFanTexassidersdd
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    This is amusing. The Lotr and Hobbit sets are amazing. The critiques often times are weak and poorly composed. I say let the bashing continue, I'll load up on a few, and rake in the profits. I would imagine Mat's "Good Old Boys" will be doing the same.
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Northern VirginiaAdministrator, Moderator Posts: 5,234
    @Mathew - New themes and their waves are likely planned out 18 months to 3 years in advance. Unless a theme completely crash lands, the waves are going to come. The idea that they would stop 2nd waves of LotR and The Hobbit due to "anecdotal" poor sales with 2 more Hobbit movies releasing is ridiculous...almost as ridiculous as using these new waves as a soapbox from which to lob random insults at other Forum members. I tend to avoid this thread so I don't know what perceived slights from the past you're trying to work through now, but I hope we can move on.
  • Gavin83Gavin83 London, UKMember Posts: 251
    mathew said:

    I guess what I'm really asking for is: Where are the sales numbers? I've seen the forum "experts" saying that they hear this or that or hate this or that, yet rarely do I see anything of substance to make me think they have any clue as to what they are talking about.

    For what it's worth it seems that Gandalf Arrives, Weathertop and Orc Forge have been better sellers than the rest. I'm actually of the opinion that Weathertop may be one of the better aftermarket sets, especially if you can buy it at a discount. It's the one I'd be buying at the moment personally.

    I actually think in terms of minifigs Mines of Moria is probably the strongest set of the first wave and has been available at deep discounts, although the set itself is probably the worst design of them all.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Weathertop is a great set until they come out with another one with Ringwraiths. Orc Forge falls into the same category. I'm buying into LotR regardless, but not as heavy as I could for these reasons.

    Helm's Deep is a "castle" and the Pirate Ship is a "ship" (although not a good one) -- enough said.
  • DevastatorDevastator Member Posts: 66
    I almost got excited the other day when I saw a couple of oldish looking lego sets in the window of a mom and pop toy store until I realized they were non-ship PotC sets.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    Trenth said:
    I wonder if he understands how different 'Returns not excepted' is from 'Returns not accepted.'
    Pitfall69Yellowcastle
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    He seems to have his exit strategy reasonably well constructed (at least in his mind). First he needs 20-25 days to get all the parts, then in case you aren't "pleased", he'll try to work things out with you without involving ebay or paypal. That's quite the planned delay before ebay/paypal tries to get their money back from him (after the victim files a case).
    Pitfall69
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 451
    The new WalMart I mentioned is in Charlotte, NC, and no, it is not in a bad area; upper middle-class, I would say. Oh, and I remembered they are actually carrying one, just one Hobbit set, and it's the tiny Riddles for the Ring. This is a brand new WalMart, a huge Supercenter and they could likely have ordered all the Unexpected Gathering's, Wargs, and Mirkwood Spiders they wanted. But they didn't want any. Zip, zilch, zero. Anybody else find that interesting? And what about this... with Target putting Hobbit sets on clearance and WalMart (at least some Walmart stores) not carrying them, wouldn't that hasten the EOL for the first wave?
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    edited July 2013
    Summer is winding down and kids are getting ready to go back to school. Probably the slowest time of the year for toy sales. I'm sure come November they'll be stocking more stuff. Walmart never carries anything larger than $100 anyway.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    Hobbit sets will still be available this Christmas because the new film will be released. I'm thinking that Bag End will stick around another year and retire sometime in late 2014.
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,275
    ^^ Saying "Walmart never" along with anything is a pretty broad generalization and when it comes to Walmart almost nothing is consistent enough to do that. My Walmarts along with plenty I have seen have carried pretty much every over $100 "system" set in a while. MF, Turbo Tank, (originally priced) Jabba's Palace, Malvolence, the Ninjago one(s), Helm's deep etc etc.
  • RonyarRonyar Member Posts: 373
    Juggles7, do you mean the new Walmart by I485 in Huntersville?
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    I have my #41999 s. The box is amazing. It comes with an M motor, lights and a switch. There was a limit of 5 per customer. The Lego shop didn't have any #9398 (and neither does Argos anymore).
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    My Walmart sucks and I know they had Jabbas Palace and Millennium Falcon.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    graphite said:

    ^^ Saying "Walmart never" along with anything is a pretty broad generalization and when it comes to Walmart almost nothing is consistent enough to do that. My Walmarts along with plenty I have seen have carried pretty much every over $100 "system" set in a while. MF, Turbo Tank, (originally priced) Jabba's Palace, Malvolence, the Ninjago one(s), Helm's deep etc etc.

    That's true. I forgot about those sets. They just don't stock the Expert series sets in store (except for the rare exception).
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,383
    JamesJT said:

    I have my #41999 s. The box is amazing. It comes with an M motor, lights and a switch. There was a limit of 5 per customer. The Lego shop didn't have any #9398 (and neither does Argos anymore).

    9398 can still be had from Amazon uk £99.99 but that will be it about done when they are out



  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    ^ is that official? #9398 about to EOL?
  • SiESiE Member Posts: 238
    JamesJT said:

    I have my #41999 s. The box is amazing. It comes with an M motor, lights and a switch. There was a limit of 5 per customer. The Lego shop didn't have any #9398 (and neither does Argos anymore).

    Which store?

  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816
    ^ Sheffield I think.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    edited July 2013
    roxio said:

    JamesJT said:

    I have my #41999 s. The box is amazing. It comes with an M motor, lights and a switch. There was a limit of 5 per customer. The Lego shop didn't have any #9398 (and neither does Argos anymore).

    9398 can still be had from Amazon uk £99.99 but that will be it about done when they are out



    While I certainly can't refute the logic of them being "done when they are out," I'm assuming you mean that in your opinion, the Crawler's end is nearing. What are you basing this on?
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,383
    edited July 2013
    roxio said:

    JamesJT said:

    I have my #41999 s. The box is amazing. It comes with an M motor, lights and a switch. There was a limit of 5 per customer. The Lego shop didn't have any #9398 (and neither does Argos anymore).

    9398 can still be had from Amazon uk £99.99 but that will be it about done when they are out



    That doesn't read very well, I meant done at getting it at a reasonable discount after Amazon are OOS.
    Unless TLG retire it now as it will have been out 1 year at the launch of 41999....

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Unimog has been out a lot longer, it strikes me as very odd that they would retire 4x4 now.

    But anything is possible. :)
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Denver, CO, USAMember Posts: 1,659
    JamesJT said:

    I have my #41999 s. The box is amazing.

    Agreed, really a gorgeous box, really stand out for any other Technic or any other LEGO sets. Sales person kept on pointing out, it was one in 20K. Anyhow was hard to pass, I doubt TRU will sell them and I didn't want to wait for a double VIP or ther promo and them being OOS.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ I thought this set was not going to be released till August? It's available in Lego Stores now? US?
    FollowsClosely
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    A lot of August sets are out.
    Dougout
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Understood, just thought this was a special release which Lego can be more stringent on.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    I'm guessing just some isolated stores are selling them as I just went down to my closest Lego Store which did not have it out yet.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I hate all of you who have a Lego store close by. There isn't one in a 12 hr radius that includes millions of people.
  • legofanfromleedslegofanfromleeds legoland...England Member Posts: 414

    I hate all of you who have a Lego store close by. There isn't one in a 12 hr radius that includes millions of people.

    even worse for us who do have 1 close by..... Nothing in Leeds uk that's on my wish list...... Arghh
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    ^^I wouldn't feel too bad BoiseState. I have a bunch of Lego stores around me (So Cal), but I rarely buy anything there. While it's cool to visit and check out some models in person, it's almost always cheaper to buy on Amazon (US and various European sites) etc. There are some minor exceptions, such as BF and New Year's sales, but deals during those times seem to be fleeting.
  • SupersympaSupersympa SwedenMember Posts: 534

    Unimog has been out a lot longer, it strikes me as very odd that they would retire 4x4 now.

    But anything is possible. :)

    9398 is in the H2 2013 catalogue for official shops at least in Europe,
    so they can order it at least untill december...so it is not going anywhere yet...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    I just stopped into my LEGO store today, they have 41999 in stock in the back room, but can't sell it until the first.

    Limit 2 per customer.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Minecraft, is this set done for awhile?

    When I went into my store today, they had a whole shelf full of them, they haven't been out of stock for a week or two now and supply on Amazon also appears to have caught up to demand.

    Will we see the same shortages this Christmas for the two new sets? Will LEGO produce enough of them to meet demand?

    What is the longer term future of the 1st minecraft set? Good? Bad? Depends on how long it is out?
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,502
    ^I think it will depend on how long Minecraft stays popular. Will they make a sequel or expand the game at some point to inject more life into or will the makers just let it coast and choose to develop something else instead?
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ I see them too in my local stores but have been passing them up. Personally, I don't like gambling on a hopeful shortage.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,258
    Journeyed to the Alpharetta store today. Plenty of Minecraft on the shelf, new Technic crane, no 41999 out (they will have a limit of 1), no BTTF, new Chima, new SW, but more pertinently NO FBs and no more coming in.
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