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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Almost all the LOTR first wave sets are great. All the second wave sets except for the Tower of Orthanc are uninteresting. The only other good set I think they could make would be a second tower to pair with the first. I would buy a well done Rivendell or Minas Tirith, but I doubt those will get done. LOTR has great minifigs, weapons, armor and some good sets, but I don't know if it has staying power.

    Why does TLG not just use the Hobbit movies to promote more Hobbit sets? They must be trying to take advantage of LOTR because they no there is no chance of it coming back like HP. I think the real question is how long will TLG keep making new LOTR. Hobbit sets should be here for another 2 years, but can LOTR make it that long, I doubt it.
  • CircleKCircleK Member Posts: 1,055
    ^^ Agreed. I really expect the Tower of Orthanc to be LotR's swan song.
    Dougout
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    BoiseState said:

    I think HP has a much broader fanbase than LOTR.

    That's the understatement of the century. :) Kids don't give a flying monkey about the LOTR IP. I would bet that the majority of kids who end up with the sets don't even know what LOTR is, other than possibly it's a 'thing' that their parents have tried to explain to them.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Dougout said:

    Almost all the LOTR first wave sets are great. All the second wave sets except for the Tower of Orthanc are uninteresting. The only other good set I think they could make would be a second tower to pair with the first. I would buy a well done Rivendell or Minas Tirith, but I doubt those will get done. LOTR has great minifigs, weapons, armor and some good sets, but I don't know if it has staying power.

    Why does TLG not just use the Hobbit movies to promote more Hobbit sets? They must be trying to take advantage of LOTR because they no there is no chance of it coming back like HP. I think the real question is how long will TLG keep making new LOTR. Hobbit sets should be here for another 2 years, but can LOTR make it that long, I doubt it.

    I disagree, the pirate ship and black gate(if you buy 2) are nice looking sets aswell

    Also its a ship so its a pretty safe set to invest in
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    It's a hard thing to do, appeal to 8yr olds and adults. HP and Star Wars have done that, many others have tried and failed.
    legofanfromleeds
  • EKSamEKSam Member Posts: 349
    HP and LOTR, we are talking about 2 different age groups. I haven't seen very many kids asking for a LOTR set but I see them being a hit with adults. The fact that the sets were released years after the LOTR trilogy came out has not helped either. $200 for Tower of Orthanc, parents will buy one for themselves not for their kids though.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Ya, it was strange that the sets came out 10 yrs after the movie debut.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk Member Posts: 633
    I can see kids (7+) wanting Tower of Orthanc because it is huge and cool looking, not necessarily because its connection to LotR series.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    ^ yep, as far as kids are concerned, LOTR is just another cool fantasy, medieval theme. The IP is meaningless.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    BoiseState said:

    The Unexpected Gathering has to be a homerun post eol.. Such a cool set and good figs.

    Pitfall69 said:

    ...but it is an obvious "home run".

    I think so, but let's keep it on the down low. :-)

    Dougout
  • beebee Member Posts: 33
    In regards to HP, the interest will also continue to be there because the universal theme parks have a HP land and they are expanding that to the Hollywood one too. It's going to be a hard theme to "forget". Almost along the same lines as POTC because if Disneyland.
    And with the growth of lego I feel there will always be demand for these sets. Just too bad I don't have any. Haha
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 159
    ^ Agreed. And I think it is naïve to think that HP won't be re-booted at some point. It's a multi-BILLION dollar franchise. That said, I would guess that HP sets are more susceptible to "buying the latest" version that SW sets. Star Wars fans have been raised on the concept of "collectability." I am guessing the average HP fan will simply want the latest version of whatever flagship set it being done (DA, HC, etc:)
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    I think LOTR will be more successful than some are considering, although probably not to the level of HP. I think the majority of the first wave sets have some sort of aftermarket appeal. One definately appeals to the typical AFOL while the other appeals primarily to kids. It just depends on who it is buying the sets.

    I do hope the Tower is successful though. LOTR was a theme which was perfect for large scale models and hopefully if this is successful they'll consider releasing another larger set in the future. There are many they could do.
  • hoyatableshoyatables Member Posts: 873
    ^ The only error that I think LEGO made with the Tower of Orthanc was not including a boatload of figs, similar to the Death Star and the forthcoming Ewok Village. If they had really included a bunch of figures, I think that would entice even more people to pick it up. That said, the siege at Orthanc is really not as character-intense as Helm's Deep or many other scenes. Still, make it another opportunity to pick up Merry and Pippin, another Ent or two, or some additional orcs, if nothing else. What's awesome about the Death Star is that you get everything you need right there. No additional sets required. I keep looking at Orthanc and thinking -- sure, it is big and all, but that's it. Anyway, just my two cents.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    This thread is on the secondary market value. i.e. the resell value, the ROI...

    What about the investment value of the 2013 Con LEGO specials? The Micro Bag End, the Azog, the Super Heroes? Do those appreciate over the price they sell for right after the Con? For instance, will the Micro Bag End be selling for $200 or $50 this time next year? Or, sell for the $100 they're selling for now? What about 5 years from now? What's the trend on such sets?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    @cloaked7

    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/8857/minifigures-and-their-secondary-market-value#latest

  • CircleKCircleK Member Posts: 1,055
    cloaked7 said:

    This thread is on the secondary market value. i.e. the resell value, the ROI...

    Well sometimes... Sometimes it's about gaming consoles. Sometimes it's about gift cards to Starbucks. Sometimes it's about our hatred of Jar Jar.
    cloaked7FollowsCloselyjasor
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    ^^Has anyone seen instructions for the micro Bag End yet?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    cloaked7 said:

    This thread is on the secondary market value. i.e. the resell value, the ROI...

    What about the investment value of the 2013 Con LEGO specials? The Micro Bag End, the Azog, the Super Heroes? Do those appreciate over the price they sell for right after the Con? For instance, will the Micro Bag End be selling for $200 or $50 this time next year? Or, sell for the $100 they're selling for now? What about 5 years from now? What's the trend on such sets?

    Technically, the thread is about the value on retiring sets. Do con sets count in that? I dunno. I really do try to avoid all the speculation about the con things, mostly because they are a whole different beast that don't follow anything close to the life-cycle of "standard" sets that are discontinued.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ You're correct on all of your points. I was just curious. Curious, how such sets did in general.

    I'm not looking to invest in any such sets. I am completely ignorant about them. I read the thread that @Pitfall69 shared and it is obvious that some people are W-A-Y more into minifigs than I am. This specific torso, hands of this color. Very specific. Course, that would be the case for a collectible minifig. Just very difficult to get my head wrapped around paying $1,000 for a minifig, no matter how rare.
  • AdeelZubairAdeelZubair Member Posts: 2,703
    How longer do you think the Quinjet will be around in the UK??

    I'm still wanting to complete my Iron Man armour collection with this being the last set after Mounting Gun System (Iron Patriot)!!
  • beebee Member Posts: 33
    Does anyone think the 1st Minecraft will retire once the new ones are released?
  • AdeelZubairAdeelZubair Member Posts: 2,703
    @bee, I believe it will stay a minimum until the end of this year for sure!!

    It gives time for people to purchase the new ones for who still might change there mind for Christmas or just to buy all of them for people who are new to Lego Minecraft because of Comic Con!!
  • LeGeneGoLeGeneGo Member Posts: 3
    I heard from reliable sources that FB is going to EOL
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,536
    @bee, No way. Not with it still ranking near the top of their best seller list.
  • SupersympaSupersympa Member Posts: 534
    @LeGeneGO

    The first rule about this thread is, do not talk about FB
    The second rules about this thread is, do not Talk about the first rule...

    LOL
    cloaked7RonyarFollowsCloselyAdeelZubairLegoFanTexasPenkid11Pitfall69SiEjasor
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    LeGeneGo said:

    I heard from reliable sources that FB is going to EOL

    In their lifetime?

    Pitfall69madforLEGO
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    ^It was an infant. Their first words were, Ffffbbbbbbb Eooolllllllll, in baby talk.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    edited July 2013
    LeGeneGo said:

    I heard from reliable sources that FB is going to EOL

    I completely agree with this statement.

    LegoFanTexasPitfall69jasor
  • piratemania7piratemania7 Member Posts: 2,146
    Eventually all sets will go to EOL. It's just that FB will be last.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited July 2013
    Now if it was Limited Edition.... :-)
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,297
    edited July 2013
    LeGeneGo said:

    I heard from reliable sources that FB is going to EOL

    It has been absent in the past two catalogs, all other modulars are still highlighted.

    ms 10/24/07 04/14/09 538 days
    cc 10/24/07 12/06/09 774 days
    gg 03/05/08 11/08/09 613 days
    fb 09/12/09 07/23/13 1410 days
    ge 03/03/10 07/23/13 1238 days
    ps 05/12/11 07/23/13 803 days
    th 03/03/12 07/23/13 507 days
    pc 02/14/13 07/23/13 159 days

    I think the life expectancy for modular building will be 3-4 years going forward. Even with 5 available the pc is still a top seller. Welcome to the new normal.

    P.S. The last time a modular building retired was November 2009!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    FollowsClosely said:

    P.S. The last time a modular building retired was November 2009!

    That is incredible, quite frankly... It has now been almost 4 years since one has gone...

    The stacks and stacks of FB that are out there must be huge! Or not, who really knows...
  • CircleKCircleK Member Posts: 1,055
    ^^ And four years from now there will be someone wanting to create a petition to bring it back!

    Remember this time. The time when FBs are plentiful, for they are good times.
    cloaked7madforLEGO
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    CircleK said:

    The time when FBs are plentiful, for they are good times.

    I heard that buffalos, and their herds, were once like that. No way that it was ever actually the case. :-) They just made all that up when buffalo became an endangered species.

    Dougout
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk Member Posts: 633
    LegoFanTexas said:

    FollowsClosely said:

    P.S. The last time a modular building retired was November 2009!

    That is incredible, quite frankly... It has now been almost 4 years since one has gone...

    The stacks and stacks of FB that are out there must be huge! Or not, who really knows...
    FB was mentioned in one of the first EOL predictions on page 1 of this thread. That was back in 2011 !!!

    Bee Gees' Stayin' Alive seems to be the appropriate theme song for FB & DS :)
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 159
    Should we start a new thread and cancel this one in honor of FB or DS, once one of them retires?
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited July 2013
    CircleK said:

    The time when FBs are plentiful, for they are good times.

    Yup, Timmy. (bounces baby Timmy on knee) Back in the day you could buy FB's everywhere. Amazon, TRU, Walmart, LEGO stores. They were everywhere I tell ya! Everywhere. And, plenty of stock. Dozens of 'em. Dozens I say! Hundreds, thousands! As many as you wanted to buy. That was before the Grand Implosion. Dang resellers ruined it all. Them and their profiteering! So, now look! You'd be more apt to find a Azog minifig for sell on eBay than a FB. Bad times we be living in. Bad times.
    CircleK
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    LeGeneGo said:

    I heard from reliable sources that FB is going to EOL

    That's funny because I also heard from a reliable source that I will die one day. The question is; will I EOL before FB?

    I came back to find 17 new comments and I got excited. Talk about a buzz kill :(

  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 Member Posts: 1,431
    The longer a set sells well, the more they will produce. If resellers buy tons of FB, then Lego will say, "Hey, it's selling well. Let's keep making them." I think some people around here are blinded by dollar signs.
    AdeelZubair
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    A self fulfilled prophecy!
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited July 2013
    I'm not meaning to be snarky, but @yellowcastle will get on my case if I don't point this out:

    The purchase of sets in anticipation that it will retire only to have its run extended due to those sales is situational irony.

    A self-fulfilling prophecy is more like saying: "I will buy up every aftermarket copy of Fire Brigade because the resale value will keep going up!"
    piratemania7
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    Bosstone100 said:

    The longer a set sells well, the more they will produce. If resellers buy tons of FB, then Lego will say, "Hey, it's selling well. Let's keep making them." I think some people around here are blinded by dollar signs.

    True, but this theory only lasts for so long. If something doesn't give before the Parisian Restaurant comes out, there will be six active modulars, each with really big boxes. Retailers, both online and B&M, only have so much shelving space.
    FollowsClosely
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,297
    edited July 2013
    ^ I would not be surprised to see GE go before FB. All though the catalog would not suggest that. The FB will go, and once it goes it will rise ever so slowly for the first few years, then I think you will see nice returns. So 2016! Yuck.
  • beebee Member Posts: 33
    How much will LOTR Orc Forge be worth? It seems like no one was really buying this set until the retiring soon label presented, then all of a sudden it looks like a bunch of resellers and investors were buying them. So was or will there ever be a demand for them for REAL?
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    rocao said:

    I'm not meaning to be snarky, but @yellowcastle will get on my case if I don't point this out:

    The purchase of sets in anticipation that it will retire only to have its run extended due to those sales is situational irony.

    A self-fulfilling prophecy is more like saying: "I will buy up every aftermarket copy of Fire Brigade because the resale value will keep going up!"

    You are correct. My logic was running amuck with the thought of the FB retiring, what can I say?

  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 Member Posts: 1,431
    Right and then they'll say... "gee, Fire Brigade is selling so well, let's make more but Grand Emporium doesn't sell as well, let's stop making that so we have shelf space for the Parisian Restaurant.
    tensor said:

    Bosstone100 said:

    The longer a set sells well, the more they will produce. If resellers buy tons of FB, then Lego will say, "Hey, it's selling well. Let's keep making them." I think some people around here are blinded by dollar signs.

    True, but this theory only lasts for so long. If something doesn't give before the Parisian Restaurant comes out, there will be six active modulars, each with really big boxes. Retailers, both online and B&M, only have so much shelving space.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    With regard to the demands of shelf space at brick and mortar stores, it was hypothesized somewhere that the expansion of Lego facilities (first in Hungary, later in China) combined with the irreversible growth of online shopping may create a situation where Lego keeps sets available longer, just not in stores. So modulars and Death Stars could hypothetically have a 2-5 year lifespan on the shelf and X many more at [email protected] Then, to my mind, the only (or primary) reason for a set to be discontinued entirely would have to do with the molds.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Bosstone100 said:

    The longer a set sells well, the more they will produce. If resellers buy tons of FB, then Lego will say, "Hey, it's selling well. Let's keep making them." I think some people around here are blinded by dollar signs.

    I'm not blinded by dollar signs, but I do see and like them.

    Remember that some of us make our living doing this, it pays the mortgage. :)
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 Member Posts: 1,431
    Works for me. More Fire Brigades for MOCing. Still going to get another 1-3 before it's all said and done.
    LegoFanTexas said:

    Bosstone100 said:

    The longer a set sells well, the more they will produce. If resellers buy tons of FB, then Lego will say, "Hey, it's selling well. Let's keep making them." I think some people around here are blinded by dollar signs.

    I'm not blinded by dollar signs, but I do see and like them.

    Remember that some of us make our living doing this, it pays the mortgage. :)
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