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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^I think it should do ok, but the main problem with this Battle Pack is you only need a few of them to recreate the scene where Han and Leia leads the strike team to disable the shield generator. It isn't like Urk Hai Battle Pack where you would need a lot more to recreate the Battle of Helms Deep.
  • wilburwilbur Member Posts: 49
    Brickpicker isn't reliable because of three things. First is the amount of time it takes them to compile their numbers every month to release a statement. The second is that for any given set they don't account for the amount of shinanigans that takes place on eBay, like reseller fraud. For example, I've been watching IS very closely, since I own several. It can sell at a little less than $400 pretty consistently before fees, but for some reason people get on there and sell it for less than rrp every now and then! I have no idea why! Anyway, that sale is part of the average.

    The third reason is that their averages can never truly take into account the actual condition of the set YOU would be selling or YOUR personal seller rating, both of which can drastically effect your personal rate of return.

    I have a general question for the more seasoned resellers here... I'm sitting on many sets that retired this past fall/Christmas. Most are hovering very close to double rrp, which is my trigger point for reselling. I assume other resellers have the same trigger point. Do they? When a set hits double rrp does it become more difficult to sell do to increased product (all the resellers suddenly flood the market with stock)?

    As far as I can tell MT has done exactly what EN has done with respect to its rate of appreciation over time. MT made about a 60% jump to around 200 very quickly, and since then has only crept up to its current rate right at double rrp. I didn't buy EN cause I wasn't reselling then, but I was surprised when I looked at its numbers at how low it was given the MT first two or three months post EOL. Obviously I know those numbers aren't actually low. But I saw MT shoot up like a rocket and thought "man! EN must be $500 by now!"

    Thanks for the advice on this forum. I didn't fall into lego reselling because of the newspaper or the Internet. I fell into it because I was looking online for a set that I had lost which was very valuable to me, and was shocked to learn its current value. (In hindsight, not really) it all clicked and I realized that if I was patient and made studious decisions I could make a healthy profit. Then I found the brickset community and this forum. I can't say how many people like me have flooded the reseller market lately but what I can say is that I'm sure there are a lot of posers and impatient people tying to do what I'm currently trying to do who won't make it. those people came out in droves when the B wing went on sale and either picked one up for long term holdings or couldn't get one and bought several on eBay for $200 or higher, which was hilarious to me. The point is I think alot of new resellers think reselling is a goldmine, but instead they're going to get burned by making poor impulsive decisions.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    The xRRP can be different for each set. If I bought a set for $50 I would want at least 3x RRP. If I bought a $200 set, I would be happy with 2x RRP. If I bought a set for $400 I would be ecstatic if I got 2x RRP.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379

    What you are you thoughts on #9489 ? It is sold out on [email protected] US but not sure if it is retired (been out 16 months). While it is only a battle pack, it looks like a great addition to the soon to be released #10236.

    To me, it's a bit of a wildcard and is blazing new territory for Star Wars battlepacks. For the last 2-3 years, battlepacks have all gone EOL right around x-mas time, which meant that they would invariably end up as part of end of the clearance sales and could be bought at between 30-50% off. That affects the secondary market because if I bought a battlepack for $6, I'm generally happy to begin selling when it hits $18 because that's 3x what I paid. 9489 is going EOL in July, but still seems to be out there on the shelves. Whether it turns out to be a good set for resale will depend on whether the existing supplies outside of [email protected] hold up through the holiday season and make it to the end of year clearance sales.

  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Denver, CO, USAMember Posts: 1,674
    It is more the venue of #10236 that had me wondering about it, like the #9476 Orc Forge and #10237. Many of those smaller sets complement the large set very well.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    wilbur said:

    Brickpicker isn't reliable because of three things. First is the amount of time it takes them to compile their numbers every month to release a statement. The second is that for any given set they don't account for the amount of shinanigans that takes place on eBay, like reseller fraud. For example, I've been watching IS very closely, since I own several. It can sell at a little less than $400 pretty consistently before fees, but for some reason people get on there and sell it for less than rrp every now and then! I have no idea why! Anyway, that sale is part of the average.

    The third reason is that their averages can never truly take into account the actual condition of the set YOU would be selling or YOUR personal seller rating, both of which can drastically effect your personal rate of return.

    The main reason that Brickpicker is not reliable is that they are basing all of their numbers on a single source of sales data (i.e., Ebay). Their data may be a good indicator of the price that a set would sell for on Ebay, but it is a poor indicator of the true market value of a set because they are only capturing a slice of the sales on the secondary market. Comparing their data on Ebay sales to the sales that I've made through other outlets, I can identify certain sets where I personally have sold more sets outside of Ebay in a single month than Brickpicker identifies as being sold on Ebay in that same month (I have to admit that this was pretty surprising to discover). If Brickpicker is basing their market price calculation on fewer sales in a given month than I as a single reseller made, then there is absolutely no way that their prices are accurate.
    wilbur said:

    Thanks for the advice on this forum. I didn't fall into lego reselling because of the newspaper or the Internet. I fell into it because I was looking online for a set that I had lost which was very valuable to me, and was shocked to learn its current value. (In hindsight, not really) it all clicked and I realized that if I was patient and made studious decisions I could make a healthy profit. Then I found the brickset community and this forum. I can't say how many people like me have flooded the reseller market lately but what I can say is that I'm sure there are a lot of posers and impatient people tying to do what I'm currently trying to do who won't make it. those people came out in droves when the B wing went on sale and either picked one up for long term holdings or couldn't get one and bought several on eBay for $200 or higher, which was hilarious to me. The point is I think alot of new resellers think reselling is a goldmine, but instead they're going to get burned by making poor impulsive decisions.

    I think a lot will get tired of it or give up as they try to scale up. I made a conscious decision about 3 years ago to focus on growing my reselling business. It has worked out pretty well, but it has required a lot of time, money and effort. Buying, storing, and selling 5-10 sets was easy. Doing the same with several thousands sets is a much different proposition that looks a lot different now than when those sets were just numbers in a cell of an Excel spreadsheet.

  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited July 2013

    I have to disagree. MT was available for $97 from [email protected] while DA was $100 from Walmart very close together at the end of last year. I bought both but if I had to choose one at those prices I would have gone DA without a doubt.....IMO DA will hit $300 well before MT. One other potential issue for MT is there is a good chance of a rehash after the new ship retires....there will never be another DA.

    Congratulations on scoring DA at that price, but was it really widely available or was it one of those Walmart price drops that are gone in a flash? I don't see any mention of it at that price in archived threads here or any of the various deals sites (I do see a lot at the $125 price that LFT mentioned).

    Now if you are talking about buying at retail (shudder) I can see your point for the very short term...2 years from now however DA will be well ahead of MT. In the end both were fine choices.....as usual what separates investors is not just selecting your investment but mostly your entry price and time (just ask the noob goldbugs lol).

    In general, yes, I was speaking about MSRP because the discussions were over a broad swath of time and not price-point specific. When people were lauding DA, it wasn't on the condition that it be purchased for 2/3 retail.

    Bravo about your last statement about entry price. I wanted to include that point in my previous post but it had already became too long. For me, THAT is the "surest" thing in LEGO reselling: identifying a good LEGO set, and then buying it at a discount. The "sure" thing is the discount being the base of one's profit while the tripling of any set's value is obviously much less guaranteed.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,231
    edited July 2013

    What you are you thoughts on #9489 ? It is sold out on [email protected] US but not sure if it is retired (been out 16 months). While it is only a battle pack, it looks like a great addition to the soon to be released #10236.

    To me, it's a bit of a wildcard and is blazing new territory for Star Wars battlepacks. For the last 2-3 years, battlepacks have all gone EOL right around x-mas time, which meant that they would invariably end up as part of end of the clearance sales and could be bought at between 30-50% off. That affects the secondary market because if I bought a battlepack for $6, I'm generally happy to begin selling when it hits $18 because that's 3x what I paid. 9489 is going EOL in July, but still seems to be out there on the shelves. Whether it turns out to be a good set for resale will depend on whether the existing supplies outside of [email protected] hold up through the holiday season and make it to the end of year clearance sales.

    I think it is a waste of time to buy these only to try to resell for any decent amount... Unless you plan on buying 200 of them and hope they go up like 10 dollars...Most battlepacks may double their price, or even triple, but unless you buy a ton of them I would not waste money or space on them IMO.
    In addition, many of these battlepacks tend to get a minor update and re-released.. I'm sure this will occur once the Ewok Village is out.
    I think one of the sets that may finally start to rise is the latest Battle of Endor set with the bunker
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,395
    Some good discussion here, that I've enjoyed reading.

    Is it just me, or does anyone else feel that after all the off-topic discussion that this thread constantly has, the on-topic discussion is actually "off topic"? :o)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    What part is off topic?
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,850
    ^ The "pick on Pitfall" topic perhaps? It was sad to see it end so soon. ;-)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    That's probably the part @samiam391 enjoyed the most. He got a jab in through IM the other day.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    edited July 2013
    rocao said:

    Congratulations on scoring DA at that price, but was it really widely available or was it one of those Walmart price drops that are gone in a flash? I don't see any mention of it at that price in archived threads here or any of the various deals sites (I do see a lot at the $125 price that LFT mentioned).

    I got my entire inventory of DAs through TRU/FAO bogos for $112 each. Those were available numerous times over the last couple years...
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    rocao said:

    Congratulations on scoring DA at that price, but was it really widely available or was it one of those Walmart price drops that are gone in a flash? I don't see any mention of it at that price in archived threads here or any of the various deals sites (I do see a lot at the $125 price that LFT mentioned).

    That Walmart price was for a few hours only. However the set was available BF for $135 less 5% Discover cashback less set 3300014 ($25 after fees)....if you include the further 5% VIP points it was actually better than the Walmart price...just took a little longer to get there.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited July 2013
    ^^I think it is a matter of semantics. A BOGO sale may yield a better price for a lot of 2, but that really isn't a "sale" price. The average person will not buy two. The only people that would buy two or more are resellers. Regardless, that is a great price :)
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited July 2013
    Bandit said:

    I got my entire inventory of DAs through TRU/FAO bogos for $112 each. Those were available numerous times over the last couple years...

    Good point, but Emerald Night and Maersk Train were also available through TRU BOGO 50% off, so it's kind of a wash. My point in mentioning the discounts was because LFT made a case for Diagon Alley stating a discounted price, but didn't give the same consideration to Emerald Night or Maersk Train.

    That Walmart price was for a few hours only. However the set was available BF for $135 less 5% Discover cashback less set 3300014 ($25 after fees)....if you include the further 5% VIP points it was actually better than the Walmart price...just took a little longer to get there.

    3300020 came free if you purchased an Emerald Night during Black Friday 2011. I didn't bother mentioning that value when comparing two sets because you'd receive it free with either set.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,929
    edited July 2013

    ....
    it is a waste of time to buy these only to try to resell for any decent amount... Unless you plan on buying 200 of them and hope they go up like 10 dollars...Most battlepacks may double their price, or even triple, but unless you buy a ton of them I would not waste money or space on them

    It does depend on how you resell them too. Open them, sell off the minifigs and you will clear a profit. If you bought at 50% off, you might make 100% profit based on your outlay. Postage is cheaper than sending boxes, and you get to keep all the parts. Reselling is not just about sealed sets. Selling a small army of 10 rebels or 10 imperials works well too.
  • sjerakatsjerakat Member Posts: 27
    When you guys refer to Hogwarts Castle, which one are you speaking of? I used to own the Azkaban Hogwarts 4757 and checked its prices before I included it in a large trade. I don't recall it being much higher in value then it's original retail. I used to have quite a bit of HP sets but now find myself with only 10132 Motorized Hogwarts Express. This set was always my favorite from the entire line and it seems to be doing considerably well post retirement. Which of the 4 Hogwarts was the best? And which is doing the best post retirement?
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,051
    ^ The last line doubled over the few months post retirement.

    http://www.brickset.com/browse/themes/?theme=Harry Potter&year=2011,2010
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^Looks like he doesn't "follow closely" ;)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,231
    I do not see HP continuing to go up in price.. I think it will peak this holiday season, then start to stabilize at those prices, or start to drop.
    Unless another movie is due out LEGO is not going to keep the line re-appearing and even it if does they are probably going to once again repeat a bunch of sets, which means that HP set may or may not continue to rise even if another movie comes out, or a re-release of the movies come out.
    Because I am pretty sure that the original sets that were discontinued but redone (like Knight Bus, and The Hogwarts castle) did not fair well once the line was back, because people would rather have the newer version.
    See any pretty much any previous SW set incarnation when redone as proof of this.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    There will be no new HP sets.
    FollowsClosely
  • EKSamEKSam Member Posts: 349
    A lot of my daughter's friends ( 2nd grade and up) have started reading the HP books, you should see the looks on their faces when they see the Hogwarts Castle or the Hogwarts Express in its Lego glory. I personally feel the HP sets will continue to do very well.
    FollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I agree, my question is for how long? The Harry Potter Lego sets are based on the movies and not the books. Are the books different than the movies? I know that the pictures in the books of Diagon Alley and other places differ from the movies. I have only seen the first 3 movies, so I am not a maven when it comes to Harry Potter, but I know a good thing when I see it.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    The books are really similar..
  • EKSamEKSam Member Posts: 349
    ^^ The sets are a very good representation of whats written in the books. The books are written so well that it's almost a shame that some of the movies did not do justice to them. And let's not forget, these are the books that made a generation fall in love with reading, from lamenting the fact that kids don't read anymore to eagerly awaiting the next book. I do not see Harry Potter being just a passing fancy, imho these sets should continue to do well for some time to come. Having said that I am not a reseller and have only the sets from 2010-11 so you might want to take my assertions with a grain of salt. :-)
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    ^Generally speaking, the movies were just as strong or weak as their respective books (SS, CoS and DH being awful in both mediums, and PoA and GoF being the best of both sets), with OotP and the first half of DH being the exceptions.

    Regardless, Harry Potter will never be as iconic as Star Wars or many other current LEGO licenses, and its merchandising potential has already seen a sharp decline, never mind the fact that many people who grew up on the books freely acknowledge that three of them are pretty poorly written. From LEGO's point of view, Harry Potter is no longer 'fresh' or even relevant (and Rowling intends to keep it that way for the foreseeable future), so there's no real upside to them re-pursuing that license.

    And that's exactly why I feel the HP sets will continue to rise, especially as the kids who would have been most affected by HP reach the potential 'just coming out of my dark ages' stage of life. Short of Rowling breathing new life into the franchise, LEGO Harry Potter is done, so the rehashes that plague the SW aftermarket are virtually non-existent here. Where the ceiling is for these sets, I'm really not sure, but they should do very well at least this Christmas and next.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited July 2013
    ^ Yup, I can see HP maybe playing out something like that. The thing that hurts HP is that apart from people (mainly kids) just now reading the books there is little to drive interest in the license. What is there? The books and an amusement park? There are no new movies, no TV show, no cartoon, no new LEGO sets. No new LEGO sets means that a lot of people won't even know there were HP LEGO sets. So, there are some things to drive new demand, but not much. I think just a few new HP sets each year (like what is done with Spongebob) would make a huge difference in HP LEGO collectibility, but that isn't going to happen.

    Yeah, there will be a demand, just not what it could be. I don't see people wanting the old HP sets that much since there are no new HP sets to combine them with. I think that makes a big difference. Kids aren't nostalgic today. They want the latest and greatest, the new, the trendy. They want what's on TV, cartoons, what is marketed. I think old HP LEGO sets needs some connection to that aspect to really do well.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited July 2013
    I think Rowling is being really smart with her tactics. Instead of having a barrage of constant HP in your face, having a vacuum for a while can be a good thing to help recharge interest. I thoroughly expect new HP sets in the future when it makes sense for both Lego and JKR to make it happen. In the meantime, congrats to anyone holding onto some #4842 or any other red HP sets really, as those appear to be one of the year's best short-term reseller deals.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    I see Harry Potter being a cult brand. Granted it has a very big following, but I don't see it being as big as it was a few years back. So in other words, without any additional new material eventually the sets will peak and then gradually lose value. I didn't invest in any of the sets though I found a few of them charming. I would think that this Christmas is potentially the best time to sell.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited July 2013
    Though no mention of L-E-G-O, I think this is an interesting article to mention here.

    1) Movies are a major crutch for these toy companies' to generate a spark. I suppose this has been the case for a long time, but the lack of new concepts is sad.

    2) LEGO is the exception to the downward "non-electric" toy sales trend. Can they continue that?

    Hasbro 2Q results miss Wall Street's expectations
    http://news.yahoo.com/hasbro-2q-results-miss-wall-104754614.html
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited July 2013
    ^ Yup. Unless it is a basic set, like Creator, Technic, etc. LEGOS need something to drive demand. Usually a movie or cartoon. Without that kids don't know about the theme and don't want it. I think the movie, cartoon, book related themes are what have caused LEGOS sales to increase the last few years. Thing is, it is a vicious cycle. If you want to sustain sales levels you have to keep movie related themes and hope the movie does well. So, we have themes that are coming and going. Which can be good, because things are fresh.

    Fortunately LEGO has had some good movies to base LEGOS off of. Comic book movies are going to be around for a good while. Hollywood loves to copy a successful movie type (and often run it into the ground), so we'll see lots of super hero movies over the next few years.

    Non-electric? Console gaming is something to contend with. Not only for game companies but parents and society as well. Which is interesting, because I think people now spend more on console games than on movies. :-) Of course, LEGO has console games, tied to a movie and LEGO sets! A trifecta?
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    cloaked7 said:

    Unless it is a basic set, like Creator, Technic, etc. LEGOS need something to drive demand. Usually a movie or cartoon.

    I seem to recall reading City is LEGO's top-selling theme.
    cloaked7 said:

    If you want to sustain sales levels you have to keep movie related themes and hope the movie does well.

    I don't think this is as relevant to LEGO as it is to other toy companies. Other companies are selling one-off toys or toy lines. Because LEGO is a system, everything they sell is essentially a gateway to the rest of their products. So whereas another toy company might have short-term success because of a movie tie-in, LEGO may gain a long-term customer because of it.
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    So can HP's success be used as a potential indicator for LotR? Because there are a lot of similarities there. Hobbit films aside, neither of these two franchises are likely to see any media refreshes in the near future. Yet, in both cases there is a large fan base that seems to stay intact despite the lack of new content. I originally thought LotR would due very well in its after life and lightly invested. I never thought it would see a 2nd wave though. Now that there is a 2nd wave, I don't think there will be a third. I will probably be wrong again though.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited July 2013
    binaryeye said:

    I don't think this is as relevant to LEGO as it is to other toy companies. Other companies are selling one-off toys or toy lines. Because LEGO is a system, everything they sell is essentially a gateway to the rest of their products. So whereas another toy company might have short-term success because of a movie tie-in, LEGO may gain a long-term customer because of it.

    That's a great point.

    Separately, I do really think the grab for licenses is getting to the "jump the shark" stage. Enter Mixels.
    TheLoneTensor
  • Tevans333Tevans333 Member Posts: 152
    So what's everyones thoughts on the Batcave #6860? It's being clearanced off around here at Target and Meijer for 25% off. It will hit the 2 year mark at the end of this year. I'm guessing it disapears from [email protected] after the holidays and will do nicely by christmas 2014, but how nicely is the questions.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    CircleK said:

    So can HP's success be used as a potential indicator for LotR? Because there are a lot of similarities there.

    Aside from both being based on books, I don't see many similarities.

    LOTR seems to have more in common with Indiana Jones or POTC: The demographic is more likely teens to adults rather than kids, and the sets were released in anticipation of a refresh of a popular franchise.
    CircleK said:

    I never thought it would see a 2nd wave though. Now that there is a 2nd wave, I don't think there will be a third. I will probably be wrong again though.

    I think the 2nd wave makes a 3rd wave more likely. With the third Hobbit film coming in December 2014, there will be another summer for LOTR sets.
  • richlrichl NYCMember Posts: 246
    Just wondering - what are people's opinions on the Dino line? Granted, it was a one-shot this time round and squarely aimed at kids instead of AFOLS but they seem to be doing pretty well on the aftermarket. #5887 especially seems to be listed for a lot over the original sale price.

    Same with the Forest Police line - I held off on those since I thought they'd be around a while but those that have EOLd seem to be rising fast - #4438 appears to have doubled already.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Tevans333 said:

    So what's everyones thoughts on the Batcave #6860? It's being clearanced off around here at Target and Meijer for 25% off. It will hit the 2 year mark at the end of this year. I'm guessing it disapears from [email protected] after the holidays and will do nicely by christmas 2014, but how nicely is the questions.

    I think it's an ok set, but not a great set, certainly nothing like Arkham. That said, I think it will be great in the aftermarket because:

    a) it's Batman
    b) it's the Batcave
    c) the figs are all rare, with Bane and Bruce Wayne are unique
    d) It's a decent sized set, within the magic $70-$150 window

    I also think this because it's been around for a while and nobody's shown it much love, not unlike the recent HP sets. This will be one of those sets that people will regret not picking up because, just like HP, they had (still have) every opportunity to do so and decided not to.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited July 2013
    richl said:

    Just wondering - what are people's opinions on the Dino line? Granted, it was a one-shot this time round and squarely aimed at kids instead of AFOLS but they seem to be doing pretty well on the aftermarket. #5887 especially seems to be listed for a lot over the original sale price.

    Same with the Forest Police line - I held off on those since I thought they'd be around a while but those that have EOLd seem to be rising fast - #4438 appears to have doubled already.

    I think both have something going for them. The Dino line has the best looking, most realistic dinos Lego has ever done. Until the next version line comes out, they will do pretty well. If the next batch of dinos looks bad, or even worse - cartoony and fake, these dinos will do even better.

    The forest police was a cool foray out of the normal Lego City (literally). Being a huge fan of Alaska State Troopers taints my objectivity, but the trooper-like figures, plus the new Bear and general foliage in each set makes these all winners in my eyes. Until they make another forest police line, which I can't imagine happening anytime soon, these will be the only way you can get some good looking forest/ranger/trooper figs (and bears).
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I just can't stand that Batcave. But I'm not a 5-year-old either. So if had for a discount (under $50), then it's probably a good bet.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    CircleK said:

    So can HP's success be used as a potential indicator for LotR? Because there are a lot of similarities there. Hobbit films aside, neither of these two franchises are likely to see any media refreshes in the near future. Yet, in both cases there is a large fan base that seems to stay intact despite the lack of new content. I originally thought LotR would due very well in its after life and lightly invested. I never thought it would see a 2nd wave though. Now that there is a 2nd wave, I don't think there will be a third. I will probably be wrong again though.

    The main problem is Harry Potter is more for kids. HP also has the benefit of being able to be reignited in the future more than LOTR does. JK Rowling is writing other books, but she will return to the wizard world at some point. Her popularity will spark interest immediately which is opposed from JRR Tolkein who can't write another book and I don't know if anyone could bring any of his other books to life. It is a miracle that Peter Jackson was able to do what he did with LOTR and then make the Hobbit films about ten years later which is the appropriate time to wait.

    HP is much easier to make into films and has a bigger, more profitable audience which makes it the better option. I wish this wasn't the case, I have much more LOTR compared to HP, but most of them are for the long haul rather than quick flipping. It will do okay because it has a big fan base that also likes to play with cool toys, but I don't see it doing as well as HP. There isn't enough kids for it and it isn't relevant enough in people's minds for it to do as good as HP.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I think HP has a much broader fanbase than LOTR.
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367

    I think HP has a much broader fanbase than LOTR.

    I tend to agree. While the LotR trilogy is among my favorite series of books, they are not exactly kid-friendly reads. It's also one of those series many people seemed to know nothing about until the movies came along. I'm not saying the fan base is small, but the number of fans who love the property and are willing to buy LEGO sets is probably smaller than the HP crowd.

    Also, HP reaches out to a much broader spectrum because it was written for young readers and has been such an omnipresent part of popular culture for over a decade. Many of the kids who grew up on the series have their own kids reading the books now, carrying on that cycle.

  • sjerakatsjerakat Member Posts: 27
    While I'm a big HP fan and not a fan of LOTR at all, I can't deny that the LOTR sets are just much better sets in general. I am not collecting them but definitely feel like they are going to increase in value post retirement. Especially beautiful sets like Helms Deep and the Tower of Orthanc to name a few. I feel like the HP line was plagued with a bunch of releases and rehashes. Did we need 4 castles and 4 Hogwarts expresses'? I always wanted a full size quidditch stadium that represented all 4 houses. Or a ministry of magic.. There was so much potential for others sets, it's a shame the line and releases were inconsistent
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Ya, Lego could have done so many more HP sets. A 10xxx Malfoy Manor would have been awesome, with a dungeon for Harry/Ron/Hermione/Luna/Goblin and the bad guys upstairs.

    Helms Deep is one of my favorite castles.. Loved the Urak Hai army add on. I hope Lego continues to do connecting sets.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    The Unexpected Gathering has to be a homerun post eol.. Such a cool set and good figs.
    Pitfall69cloaked7
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited July 2013
    sjerakat said:

    ...Did we need 4 castles and 4 Hogwarts expresses'?...

    I think we honestly did, if only to end up with what we have, which is a pretty darned good playset representation of the castle (well, as good as you can get at that price point). I.e. the progression and refinement of a model using new techniques, colors and bricks that comes from multiple iterations. The same can be said about many other sets, #7142 being a good example of a version 1.0 that has been refined many times.

    But, did we really need both #4842 and #4867 at the same time? That's a good question. They appeal to different price ranges, but really, I though the existence of the smaller one took away from the majesty of the bigger one (it'd be as if they released a $50, midi-sized Helm's Deep this year). Of course, I have to guess the answer is yes, because both are laying the smackdown in the aftermarket.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ...but it is an obvious "home run".
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    #4842 and #4867 seems to me pretty much the same thing as #9474 and #9471. I don't see why one should exclude the other. #4867 is not a midi-sized Hogwarts but rather an extension of the main castle.
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