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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    DanGP said:

    stegmanco said:

    What about Star Trek? 1st one was rubbish!

    Would you be referring to Star Trek-The (slow) Motion Picture? As a kid I devoured anything sci-fi but that left me cold. Wrath of Khan on the other hand.

    Lol you can fast forward through that movie and it is still a slow watch
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited July 2013

    I wonder if we'll see another line blow up like HP.. So many more people resell now. I think you might possibly see Monster Fighter do really well, but I don't think anything else right now has a shot of blowing up.

    As long as you buy your fair share to open, gift away, build, play with (besides savings to resell), all will remain in balance with the world.

    And there will always be new surprise sets/themes to happily blow up.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Had Star Wars never came along would some Lego sets be as valuable today?

    Star Wars was the theme that exploded the popularity of Lego, i think Star Wars is a gateway theme for AFOLS

    Even though i don't own them the UCS star destroyer and falcon were the sets that got me into Lego, and probably many others i would imagine.

    The falcon is also the first set that many see $$$ signs in their eyes and think every set is going to be worth as much as it.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    DanGP said:

    stegmanco said:

    What about Star Trek? 1st one was rubbish!

    Would you be referring to Star Trek-The (slow) Motion Picture? As a kid I devoured anything sci-fi but that left me cold. Wrath of Khan on the other hand.

    Hey, I like TMP. It owes a lot to 2001 so if you watch it from that perspective it's not bad. I'm a big fan of spacey atmosphere so I enjoy just zoning out to it every once in awhile. Actually the worst thing about it is William Shatner's performance and those terrible costumes.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    edited July 2013

    I just went back a search for HP. We failed on this forum in respect to HP.

    Now... when are DS and FB retiring again? :)
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    Pitfall69 said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    prevere said:

    ^Sequels are never as good as the original.

    It all depends if you consider The Empire Strikes Back a sequel. I am a Star Wars snob ans in my opinion, Empire is better than A New Hope and Jedi.

    Another film is Evil Dead II. Much better film than the original and a cult classic.

    I actually found ROTJ more enjoyable than the first two

    Mad Max 2 is another example of the sequel being better than the original

    Which in turn stars Bruce spence who also starred in LOTR as MOS which was also a trilogy

    six degrees of Kevin Bacon anyone? :D
    Another one of my favorites. The Road Warrior. Great movie.

    As far as ESB. How can you say that ROTJ was more enjoyable? The direction was superior to George Lucas' sub par direction. We find out that Vader is Luke's father. Even the cast was shocked!!! They introduce Yoda, Boba Fett and Lando!!! As Luke is leaving, Ben says "That boy was our last hope" then Yoda says "No, there is another" Leia falls in love with Han.

    I can't even talk to you now. You disappointed me ;)
    I don't know about 'more enjoyable' (TESB and RotJ are equally amazing in my eyes), but Jedi is certainly the stronger of the two films from a storytelling perspective.

    As much as I love Empire, it's the only film that doesn't have a resolution, and it's the only film where there's no driving point. If you took Star Wars away from it and presented a standalone action film with similarly unfolding events, it would be a jumbled mess of a movie pretty much universally panned.

    Even without, "No. I am your father," Jedi is superior in so many ways, it's hard to imagine anyone suggesting Empire is better, lest they be judging it strictly through nostalgia.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Empire would have made a wonderful cliff-hanger 2 part episode to a TV series about the Rebel Alliance...

    Just put it between Season 2-3 or 3-4 and have it be part of a 7 season series starting off about a year before ANH and ending a year after RTOJ.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    y2josh said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    prevere said:

    ^Sequels are never as good as the original.

    It all depends if you consider The Empire Strikes Back a sequel. I am a Star Wars snob ans in my opinion, Empire is better than A New Hope and Jedi.

    Another film is Evil Dead II. Much better film than the original and a cult classic.

    I actually found ROTJ more enjoyable than the first two

    Mad Max 2 is another example of the sequel being better than the original

    Which in turn stars Bruce spence who also starred in LOTR as MOS which was also a trilogy

    six degrees of Kevin Bacon anyone? :D
    Another one of my favorites. The Road Warrior. Great movie.

    As far as ESB. How can you say that ROTJ was more enjoyable? The direction was superior to George Lucas' sub par direction. We find out that Vader is Luke's father. Even the cast was shocked!!! They introduce Yoda, Boba Fett and Lando!!! As Luke is leaving, Ben says "That boy was our last hope" then Yoda says "No, there is another" Leia falls in love with Han.

    I can't even talk to you now. You disappointed me ;)
    I don't know about 'more enjoyable' (TESB and RotJ are equally amazing in my eyes), but Jedi is certainly the stronger of the two films from a storytelling perspective.

    As much as I love Empire, it's the only film that doesn't have a resolution, and it's the only film where there's no driving point. If you took Star Wars away from it and presented a standalone action film with similarly unfolding events, it would be a jumbled mess of a movie pretty much universally panned.

    Even without, "No. I am your father," Jedi is superior in so many ways, it's hard to imagine anyone suggesting Empire is better, lest they be judging it strictly through nostalgia.
    It isn't supposed to have a resolution. That is why they made another film. You need to change your avatar to an Ewok.

    jasor
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    I think people's perspectives are based on their ages. I saw ESB in the theatre the day it came out. To find out Vader was Luke's father floored me as well as everyone in the audience. If you didn't grow up with Star Wars, you already knew this going into the movie and thus, it didn't have the same effect.
    margot
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    I hate Wikipedia, but I will quote it:

    "The Empire Strikes Back received mixed reviews from critics upon its initial release. However, fans and critics alike have widely come to consider The Empire Strikes Back to be the franchise's best film."
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    edited July 2013
    I digress...

    As far as Harry Potter goes; I would love to know why Lego decided to stop producing sets and move on from the franchise? Can we get an official answer as to why? There could have been many more sets produced.

    I should have bought more when the sets were available, so now I am going to dip ny remaining sets in chrome and quadruple their current value ;)
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Pitfall69 said:

    I digress...

    As far as Harry Potter goes; I would love to know why Lego decided to stop producing sets and move on from the franchise? Can we get an official answer as to why? There could have been many more sets produced.

    Maybe something to do with it now being a defunct franchise?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    The HP licence ended 12/31/12
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    You should encase every MISB Harry Potter sets in lucite and have them graded.
    Legofanscott
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379

    y2josh said:


    It likely varied by region, but Hogwart's was sold out everywhere online prior to Christmas, while Diagon Alley was available at least through January. I still expect Hogwart's to be the winner of the two, but Diagon Alley hasn't hit the 'Christmas spike' yet.

    I know alot of big resellers skimped on Hogwarts and went big on DA. DA is easily the better set but there are very large numbers of them floating around right now....both will be $500 sets fairly quickly (and for the new crowd fairly quickly does not mean a few months lol).

    I would expect this to become more and more frequent...the "can't miss" sets are going to rise at a much slower rate because if they're obvious to you, they're obvious to everyone else and will be stockpiled in large quantities.

  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    edited July 2013

    y2josh said:


    It likely varied by region, but Hogwart's was sold out everywhere online prior to Christmas, while Diagon Alley was available at least through January. I still expect Hogwart's to be the winner of the two, but Diagon Alley hasn't hit the 'Christmas spike' yet.

    I know alot of big resellers skimped on Hogwarts and went big on DA. DA is easily the better set but there are very large numbers of them floating around right now....both will be $500 sets fairly quickly (and for the new crowd fairly quickly does not mean a few months lol).

    I would expect this to become more and more frequent...the "can't miss" sets are going to rise at a much slower rate because if they're obvious to you, they're obvious to everyone else and will be stockpiled in large quantities.

    Not necessarily, i don't think everything boils down to inventory

    Look at EN, going by this thread that one was immensely stockpiled, it still did extremely well
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    edited July 2013
    ^^^^^^^^That's entirely possible, though that's why I mentioned the nostalgia bit. Objectively, Jedi is the better film from a storytelling perspective.

    As to Empire, I love the movie, but it doesn't function on its own. Whether or not it's supposed to is irrelevant. It can't stand up to Jedi in terms of completeness of story.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453

    Pitfall69 said:

    I digress...

    As far as Harry Potter goes; I would love to know why Lego decided to stop producing sets and move on from the franchise? Can we get an official answer as to why? There could have been many more sets produced.

    Maybe something to do with it now being a defunct franchise?

    The HP licence ended 12/31/12

    I guess I meant to ask 2 questions. Why couldn't they just renew the license fir another year? Why did they put out so little product toward the end of the license?

    I'm so flustered with the Star Wars talk....sorry.

  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379

    y2josh said:


    It likely varied by region, but Hogwart's was sold out everywhere online prior to Christmas, while Diagon Alley was available at least through January. I still expect Hogwart's to be the winner of the two, but Diagon Alley hasn't hit the 'Christmas spike' yet.

    I know alot of big resellers skimped on Hogwarts and went big on DA. DA is easily the better set but there are very large numbers of them floating around right now....both will be $500 sets fairly quickly (and for the new crowd fairly quickly does not mean a few months lol).

    I would expect this to become more and more frequent...the "can't miss" sets are going to rise at a much slower rate because if they're obvious to you, they're obvious to everyone else and will be stockpiled in large quantities.

    Not necessarily, i don't think everything boils down to inventory

    Look at EN, going by this thread that one was immensely stockpiled, it still did extremely well
    EN is not a good comparison because it retired at the end of 2011. Although that is only a little less than 2 years ago, reselling has expanded considerably in the intervening time period. Look back at this thread, LFT was just getting started around the time that EN was retiring, Brickpicker had not launched yet, and people weren't being banned from [email protected] for buying too many sets. Also, while EN may have been stockpiled by some, it was not as much of a "sure thing" as DA, which -- in my mind -- is one of the reasons that it turned out to appreciate so nicely.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622

    y2josh said:


    It likely varied by region, but Hogwart's was sold out everywhere online prior to Christmas, while Diagon Alley was available at least through January. I still expect Hogwart's to be the winner of the two, but Diagon Alley hasn't hit the 'Christmas spike' yet.

    I know alot of big resellers skimped on Hogwarts and went big on DA. DA is easily the better set but there are very large numbers of them floating around right now....both will be $500 sets fairly quickly (and for the new crowd fairly quickly does not mean a few months lol).

    I would expect this to become more and more frequent...the "can't miss" sets are going to rise at a much slower rate because if they're obvious to you, they're obvious to everyone else and will be stockpiled in large quantities.

    Not necessarily, i don't think everything boils down to inventory

    Look at EN, going by this thread that one was immensely stockpiled, it still did extremely well
    EN is not a good comparison because it retired at the end of 2011. Although that is only a little less than 2 years ago, reselling has expanded considerably in the intervening time period. Look back at this thread, LFT was just getting started around the time that EN was retiring, Brickpicker had not launched yet, and people weren't being banned from [email protected] for buying too many sets. Also, while EN may have been stockpiled by some, it was not as much of a "sure thing" as DA, which -- in my mind -- is one of the reasons that it turned out to appreciate so nicely.
    everyone seems to say that every year more and more people are stock piling sets.

    If it was possible to do a head count across the whole world of these so called stock pilers, would it really be as high as everyone says it is?
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,842
    I think TESB is the best SW film of all time, I really loved Boba fett, he's probably my favorite character in SW. I hope we'll see him in the next movie as one of the main characters in the film, and maybe get a Lego fig with printed arms.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996

    y2josh said:


    It likely varied by region, but Hogwart's was sold out everywhere online prior to Christmas, while Diagon Alley was available at least through January. I still expect Hogwart's to be the winner of the two, but Diagon Alley hasn't hit the 'Christmas spike' yet.

    I know alot of big resellers skimped on Hogwarts and went big on DA. DA is easily the better set but there are very large numbers of them floating around right now....both will be $500 sets fairly quickly (and for the new crowd fairly quickly does not mean a few months lol).

    I would expect this to become more and more frequent...the "can't miss" sets are going to rise at a much slower rate because if they're obvious to you, they're obvious to everyone else and will be stockpiled in large quantities.

    Not necessarily, i don't think everything boils down to inventory

    Look at EN, going by this thread that one was immensely stockpiled, it still did extremely well
    EN is not a good comparison because it retired at the end of 2011. Although that is only a little less than 2 years ago, reselling has expanded considerably in the intervening time period. Look back at this thread, LFT was just getting started around the time that EN was retiring, Brickpicker had not launched yet, and people weren't being banned from [email protected] for buying too many sets. Also, while EN may have been stockpiled by some, it was not as much of a "sure thing" as DA, which -- in my mind -- is one of the reasons that it turned out to appreciate so nicely.
    everyone seems to say that every year more and more people are stock piling sets.

    If it was possible to do a head count across the whole world of these so called stock pilers, would it really be as high as everyone says it is?
    The relatively high returns on many sets that retired a year-ish ago would suggest it isn't.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    Pitfall69 said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    I digress...

    As far as Harry Potter goes; I would love to know why Lego decided to stop producing sets and move on from the franchise? Can we get an official answer as to why? There could have been many more sets produced.

    Maybe something to do with it now being a defunct franchise?

    The HP licence ended 12/31/12

    I guess I meant to ask 2 questions. Why couldn't they just renew the license fir another year? Why did they put out so little product toward the end of the license?

    I'm so flustered with the Star Wars talk....sorry.

    The license was always with Warner Bros. and tied to the movies. No movies, no license. They'd have to get a license from Rowling now, and she's probably happy to just sit on it.

    As to the lack of sets, they started limiting and stopped producing as the movies got darker, and weren't able to make kid friendly sets.

  • margotmargot Member Posts: 2,308
    Bandit said:


    As to the lack of sets, they started limiting and stopped producing as the movies got darker, and weren't able to make kid friendly sets.

    Yeah, plenty of dark scenes, but I'm sure they could have come up with several great sets that were kid friendly. There was such a Harry Potter fever when the last movie came out but no new Lego sets. I was really surprised by that.

  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379

    y2josh said:


    It likely varied by region, but Hogwart's was sold out everywhere online prior to Christmas, while Diagon Alley was available at least through January. I still expect Hogwart's to be the winner of the two, but Diagon Alley hasn't hit the 'Christmas spike' yet.

    I know alot of big resellers skimped on Hogwarts and went big on DA. DA is easily the better set but there are very large numbers of them floating around right now....both will be $500 sets fairly quickly (and for the new crowd fairly quickly does not mean a few months lol).

    I would expect this to become more and more frequent...the "can't miss" sets are going to rise at a much slower rate because if they're obvious to you, they're obvious to everyone else and will be stockpiled in large quantities.

    Not necessarily, i don't think everything boils down to inventory

    Look at EN, going by this thread that one was immensely stockpiled, it still did extremely well
    EN is not a good comparison because it retired at the end of 2011. Although that is only a little less than 2 years ago, reselling has expanded considerably in the intervening time period. Look back at this thread, LFT was just getting started around the time that EN was retiring, Brickpicker had not launched yet, and people weren't being banned from [email protected] for buying too many sets. Also, while EN may have been stockpiled by some, it was not as much of a "sure thing" as DA, which -- in my mind -- is one of the reasons that it turned out to appreciate so nicely.
    everyone seems to say that every year more and more people are stock piling sets.

    If it was possible to do a head count across the whole world of these so called stock pilers, would it really be as high as everyone says it is?
    I don't think that the number is particularly large, but I do think that it is larger now than it was two years ago and that there are a number of resellers who have grown more sophisticated over that time. Personally speaking, I have a much larger inventory now than I did in 2011 and I don't think that I'm unique.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    y2josh said:

    y2josh said:


    It likely varied by region, but Hogwart's was sold out everywhere online prior to Christmas, while Diagon Alley was available at least through January. I still expect Hogwart's to be the winner of the two, but Diagon Alley hasn't hit the 'Christmas spike' yet.

    I know alot of big resellers skimped on Hogwarts and went big on DA. DA is easily the better set but there are very large numbers of them floating around right now....both will be $500 sets fairly quickly (and for the new crowd fairly quickly does not mean a few months lol).

    I would expect this to become more and more frequent...the "can't miss" sets are going to rise at a much slower rate because if they're obvious to you, they're obvious to everyone else and will be stockpiled in large quantities.

    Not necessarily, i don't think everything boils down to inventory

    Look at EN, going by this thread that one was immensely stockpiled, it still did extremely well
    EN is not a good comparison because it retired at the end of 2011. Although that is only a little less than 2 years ago, reselling has expanded considerably in the intervening time period. Look back at this thread, LFT was just getting started around the time that EN was retiring, Brickpicker had not launched yet, and people weren't being banned from [email protected] for buying too many sets. Also, while EN may have been stockpiled by some, it was not as much of a "sure thing" as DA, which -- in my mind -- is one of the reasons that it turned out to appreciate so nicely.
    everyone seems to say that every year more and more people are stock piling sets.

    If it was possible to do a head count across the whole world of these so called stock pilers, would it really be as high as everyone says it is?
    The relatively high returns on many sets that retired a year-ish ago would suggest it isn't.
    I assure you, other than Diagon Alley and maybe...maybe the last Hogwarts Castle, there aren't people with piles of Harry Potter sets waiting to sell them. So, I agree.

  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622

    y2josh said:


    It likely varied by region, but Hogwart's was sold out everywhere online prior to Christmas, while Diagon Alley was available at least through January. I still expect Hogwart's to be the winner of the two, but Diagon Alley hasn't hit the 'Christmas spike' yet.

    I know alot of big resellers skimped on Hogwarts and went big on DA. DA is easily the better set but there are very large numbers of them floating around right now....both will be $500 sets fairly quickly (and for the new crowd fairly quickly does not mean a few months lol).

    I would expect this to become more and more frequent...the "can't miss" sets are going to rise at a much slower rate because if they're obvious to you, they're obvious to everyone else and will be stockpiled in large quantities.

    Not necessarily, i don't think everything boils down to inventory

    Look at EN, going by this thread that one was immensely stockpiled, it still did extremely well
    EN is not a good comparison because it retired at the end of 2011. Although that is only a little less than 2 years ago, reselling has expanded considerably in the intervening time period. Look back at this thread, LFT was just getting started around the time that EN was retiring, Brickpicker had not launched yet, and people weren't being banned from [email protected] for buying too many sets. Also, while EN may have been stockpiled by some, it was not as much of a "sure thing" as DA, which -- in my mind -- is one of the reasons that it turned out to appreciate so nicely.
    everyone seems to say that every year more and more people are stock piling sets.

    If it was possible to do a head count across the whole world of these so called stock pilers, would it really be as high as everyone says it is?
    I don't think that the number is particularly large, but I do think that it is larger now than it was two years ago and that there are a number of resellers who have grown more sophisticated over that time. Personally speaking, I have a much larger inventory now than I did in 2011 and I don't think that I'm unique.

    But i personally think alot of people are overestimating the amount of people out there who can afford to buy current sets only to store away in the dark as lets face it Lego aint exactly cheap.

    I don't buy very many sets, but the ones i buy to resell i still today find it hard to justify spending all that money for a set just to sit in a box in the dark for a few years, and tend open and build alot of the ones i originally wanted to keep for resale :)

    I do agree that most cheap and cheerful sets won't be very good at all to invest in at the present time.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,214
    edited July 2013
    I am one who has less now than years ago. About 50% less for the past 3 years.

    Simple question. You have $5,000, what sets do you invest in now. You need to spend it all today. Go.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Well for every new entrant into the reseller market I would expect someone leaves as well.

    As for the $5k the answer is simple...I will let you know after I have made my purchases this BF :)


  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I'd invest in the Haunted House, R2D2, Jabba's Palace, Vampyre Castle, maybe a few others but those would be the bulk.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404

    Simple question. You have $5,000, what sets do you invest in now. You need to spend it all today. Go.

    It depends...

    What are your goals? Short term or long term? Do you sell 1 and 2 of this and that, or prefer 10 or 20 of this or that?

    Do go for the gamble and long shots, or prefer the safe and predictable with lower returns?

    All those questions and answers will affect the answer.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    No Chima/Galaxy Squad

    Don't know enough about Friends to invest

    No TMNT

    I think Monster Fighter does really well across the board

    B-Wing is a risk.. Its an ugly set, but it wasn't out long.

    I'd stay away from the Goblin King set, but that's just me.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited July 2013

    EN is not a good comparison because it retired at the end of 2011. Although that is only a little less than 2 years ago, reselling has expanded considerably in the intervening time period. Look back at this thread, LFT was just getting started around the time that EN was retiring, Brickpicker had not launched yet, and people weren't being banned from [email protected] for buying too many sets. Also, while EN may have been stockpiled by some, it was not as much of a "sure thing" as DA, which -- in my mind -- is one of the reasons that it turned out to appreciate so nicely.

    What about 10219 Maersk Train then? It retired November 2012, which is well after the boom you are indicating, yet its value has risen to double MSRP in under a year.

    While many of the discussions on this forum extend to the overall landscape reasonably well, I dare say that your perspective might be too skewed, especially when you say Diagon Alley was a surer thing than Emerald Night, which I think was formed in large part to popular opinion here about DA.

    The aftermarket appreciation for LEGO trains has always been strong and the last decade has been particularly robust: Metroliner re-release, Santa Fe Super Chief, Santa Fe cars, TTX Intermodal, BNSF, Holiday Train, Hobby Train.

    Harry Potter has historically done well, but Diagon Alley is somewhat of a departure from the rest of the line because it's a more advanced build, a higher price point, and came towards the end of the franchise and license. While I'm still confident Diagon Alley will do well, those factors made it less of a sure thing in my opinion.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Diagon Alley has one large thing going for it...

    It is a 2,000 part set that retailed for $150, or 7.5 cents a part. It should be at 15-20 cents a part this Christmas, or close to it. For sure 20 cents next Christmas.

    If you got it on sale, paying $125... then holding it for 18-24 months, you tripled your money after fees.

    I don't know about the rest of you, but tripling my money in 18-24 months is about as close to a "sure thing" that exists on this planet. :)
    vitreolumDrax
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440

    y2josh said:


    It likely varied by region, but Hogwart's was sold out everywhere online prior to Christmas, while Diagon Alley was available at least through January. I still expect Hogwart's to be the winner of the two, but Diagon Alley hasn't hit the 'Christmas spike' yet.

    I know alot of big resellers skimped on Hogwarts and went big on DA. DA is easily the better set but there are very large numbers of them floating around right now....both will be $500 sets fairly quickly (and for the new crowd fairly quickly does not mean a few months lol).

    I would expect this to become more and more frequent...the "can't miss" sets are going to rise at a much slower rate because if they're obvious to you, they're obvious to everyone else and will be stockpiled in large quantities.

    Not necessarily, i don't think everything boils down to inventory

    Look at EN, going by this thread that one was immensely stockpiled, it still did extremely well
    EN is not a good comparison because it retired at the end of 2011. Although that is only a little less than 2 years ago, reselling has expanded considerably in the intervening time period. Look back at this thread, LFT was just getting started around the time that EN was retiring, Brickpicker had not launched yet, and people weren't being banned from [email protected] for buying too many sets. Also, while EN may have been stockpiled by some, it was not as much of a "sure thing" as DA, which -- in my mind -- is one of the reasons that it turned out to appreciate so nicely.
    everyone seems to say that every year more and more people are stock piling sets.

    If it was possible to do a head count across the whole world of these so called stock pilers, would it really be as high as everyone says it is?
    There may be more resellers around but there are also more lego sets too.
    Every year there are 400+ EOL sets to consider and 400+ new sets which will eventually add to an already hugh back catalogue.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    JamesJT said:


    There may be more resellers around but there are also more lego sets too.
    Every year there are 400+ EOL sets to consider and 400+ new sets which will eventually add to an already hugh back catalogue.

    Are you sure it's not 400+ new sets and only 200 EOL?

    That's what it seems like at the moment. When's DS and FB retiring again? Lol
    FollowsClosely
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    rocao said:

    EN is not a good comparison because it retired at the end of 2011. Although that is only a little less than 2 years ago, reselling has expanded considerably in the intervening time period. Look back at this thread, LFT was just getting started around the time that EN was retiring, Brickpicker had not launched yet, and people weren't being banned from [email protected] for buying too many sets. Also, while EN may have been stockpiled by some, it was not as much of a "sure thing" as DA, which -- in my mind -- is one of the reasons that it turned out to appreciate so nicely.

    What about 10219 Maersk Train then? It retired November 2012, which is well after the boom you are indicating, yet its value has risen to double MSRP in under a year.

    While many of the discussions on this forum extend to the overall landscape reasonably well, I dare say that your perspective might be too skewed, especially when you say Diagon Alley was a surer thing than Emerald Night, which I think was formed in large part to popular opinion here about DA.

    The aftermarket appreciation for LEGO trains has always been strong and the last decade has been particularly robust: Metroliner re-release, Santa Fe Super Chief, Santa Fe cars, TTX Intermodal, BNSF, Holiday Train, Hobby Train.

    Harry Potter has historically done well, but Diagon Alley is somewhat of a departure from the rest of the line because it's a more advanced build, a higher price point, and came towards the end of the franchise and license. While I'm still confident Diagon Alley will do well, those factors made it less of a sure thing in my opinion.
    MT is a perfect example of what I'm talking about. Go back and look at how long it took before EN was selling at or near 2X RRP...it was within a few months, if not weeks, of selling out. MT has risen to the same level, but did not rise as quickly as EN.

    To anyone who knows what they're doing, EN and MT are the perfect types of set to appreciate in the aftermarket. However, the supply on the resale market gets skewed by people who aren't necessarily as sophisticated and, for them, DA was a much surer bet than MT last year.

  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,986
    Bandit said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    I digress...

    As far as Harry Potter goes; I would love to know why Lego decided to stop producing sets and move on from the franchise? Can we get an official answer as to why? There could have been many more sets produced.

    Maybe something to do with it now being a defunct franchise?

    The HP licence ended 12/31/12

    I guess I meant to ask 2 questions. Why couldn't they just renew the license fir another year? Why did they put out so little product toward the end of the license?

    I'm so flustered with the Star Wars talk....sorry.

    The license was always with Warner Bros. and tied to the movies. No movies, no license. They'd have to get a license from Rowling now, and she's probably happy to just sit on it.

    As to the lack of sets, they started limiting and stopped producing as the movies got darker, and weren't able to make kid friendly sets.

    Lego has so many other lines that come from material that could be said to be darker than HP. A dark scene or two from HP sure isn't going to prevent them from coming out with sets, when virtually every line they put out has characters fighting in it.

    When looking at what they did produce, they simply went for the main iconic sets, that were not even really related to the movie in particular.
    Hogwarts, Hagrid's, Diagon Alley, train, Burrow, Bus, etc.
    They missed/passed on about every single econic scene from the 8th movie. Not a single set has a Horcrux.

    Vault/dragon escape
    Hogsmeade/mirror
    Basilisk/hermione
    Diadem/ghost scene
    Nagini
    End scene of King Cross Station

    there was plenty of material from 8, that they could have used to create sets, and if they weren't bothering to make sets actually pertinent to either movie, there were still plenty of iconic sets they could have done.

    I think they just messed up. As someone said...someone that made the same decision to go with Chima, decided to go with minimal HP sets? I know we bought every single set from the 2010/2011 release of this line, and some duplicates even, and we would have bought anything else released. I know kids/parents that are already scrambling because they missed out on these sets, but are hosed because they can't pay the high price.


    As for why the board didn't note these sets... As some people quoted themselves, I think there were plenty of people that recognize the inherent value these would have after market. At the same time, I also remember plenty of quotes from people that HP had no staying power, that it was not a line like Star Wars, that once the movie is done the interest fades, etc. The problem is reading HP is almost a right of passage for many kids still. My girls would still eat up about any new material related to the franchise. I know that is still the case for kids I know that have finished reading the series. Maybe at some point this part fades, or the flip happens and it becomes this generation's Star Wars. I just tend to think it is the later. *shrug*


    What I had not considered in all of this, though, is that the license was with Warner Brother's and that really does impact whether any more HP sets ever come out. If there was anything I missed, it was that aspect.

    margot
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited July 2013

    Diagon Alley has one large thing going for it...

    It is a 2,000 part set that retailed for $150, or 7.5 cents a part. It should be at 15-20 cents a part this Christmas, or close to it. For sure 20 cents next Christmas.

    If you got it on sale, paying $125... then holding it for 18-24 months, you tripled your money after fees.

    I don't know about the rest of you, but tripling my money in 18-24 months is about as close to a "sure thing" that exists on this planet. :)

    First, you're changing the discussion. I didn't say Diagon Alley would not provide a good return; I was countering Pacific493 when he said that Emerald Night was not as sure a thing as Diagon Alley. My rationale was that there has been a decade's worth of releases that have been very similar to Emerald Night and cater to the same market that have performed well, while Diagon Alley has some facets of uniqueness that make its performance less predictable. So these indications did exist, just that it wasn't the popular sentiment on the forum.

    Second, even in light of your transmutation, you're taking liberties in your argument by stating what you think DA should appreciate to a year or two from now, and then saying that non-guaranteed return is a "sure thing".

    Third, Emerald Night was available for $63 on Black Friday 2011, and Maersk Train was available for $92 before retirement, so if your argument about the sureness of something is based on the factor of appreciation in 18-24 months, both those sets have done better, and by your logic have been surer things.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Pitfall69 said:


    I assure you, other than Diagon Alley and maybe...maybe the last Hogwarts Castle, there aren't people with piles of Harry Potter sets waiting to sell them. So, I agree.

    Idk. I have not sold one HP set, I have piles, and can't imagine I'm that unique. Sure the returns are good "now" but the sets are still appreciating at a good pace. Imo, HP is just an exception to the rule of getting a good return and quickly flipping them into another set to get that initial burst again.
    sidersdd
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited July 2013

    MT is a perfect example of what I'm talking about. Go back and look at how long it took before EN was selling at or near 2X RRP...it was within a few months, if not weeks, of selling out. MT has risen to the same level, but did not rise as quickly as EN.

    To anyone who knows what they're doing, EN and MT are the perfect types of set to appreciate in the aftermarket. However, the supply on the resale market gets skewed by people who aren't necessarily as sophisticated and, for them, DA was a much surer bet than MT last year.

    I've been watching Emerald Night values since retirement, and I don't concur with your assertion that it appreciated as quickly as you state.

    According to Brickpicker it currently has a new market value of $231.57, and its appreciation over the past year has been 27.57%. This means that around July 2012 the value was $182 which is below double. This doesn't prove that the value wasn't higher previously, but that is so very rarely the case that I think it's more likely your memory is off, or that you are remembering the highest outliers of the time. I recall it was ~$150 on average. I do agree that EN had a sharper initial pop, but not so dramatic that it would alone be attributed to a vastly different reseller landscape and there could easily be a litany of other reasons.

    Beyond that, I think we're agreeing quite a bit with your latest statement: EN and MT are perfect sets for knowledgeable investors, while the less sophisticated would gravitate towards Diagon Alley. My point was that the discussions here are but a piece to the puzzle and not the be all and end all of sage advice. If one prescribed solely to the advice of this thread, they would have bought DA. If one looked beyond and identified other opportunities, they might have decided upon the Maersk Train.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    tamamahm said:


    Lego has so many other lines that come from material that could be said to be darker than HP. A dark scene or two from HP sure isn't going to prevent them from coming out with sets, when virtually every line they put out has characters fighting in it.

    Well, sensical or not, that was the party line from TLG back in 2009, IIRC...
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited July 2013
    rocao said:

    Beyond that, I think we're agreeing quite a bit with your latest statement: EN and MT are perfect sets for knowledgeable investors, while the less sophisticated would gravitate towards Diagon Alley.

    I have to disagree. MT was available for $97 from [email protected] while DA was $100 from Walmart very close together at the end of last year. I bought both but if I had to choose one at those prices I would have gone DA without a doubt.....IMO DA will hit $300 well before MT. One other potential issue for MT is there is a good chance of a rehash after the new ship retires....there will never be another DA.

    Now if you are talking about buying at retail (shudder) I can see your point for the very short term...2 years from now however DA will be well ahead of MT. In the end both were fine choices.....as usual what separates investors is not just selecting your investment but mostly your entry price and time (just ask the noob goldbugs lol).
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    gmpirate said:

    Pitfall69 said:


    I assure you, other than Diagon Alley and maybe...maybe the last Hogwarts Castle, there aren't people with piles of Harry Potter sets waiting to sell them. So, I agree.

    Idk. I have not sold one HP set, I have piles, and can't imagine I'm that unique. Sure the returns are good "now" but the sets are still appreciating at a good pace. Imo, HP is just an exception to the rule of getting a good return and quickly flipping them into another set to get that initial burst again.
    You have piles of what HP sets? I know people have the last releases and piles of DA and HC, but what about earlier releases? Do you have a stack of The Burrow 20 boxes high?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453

    rocao said:



    Beyond that, I think we're agreeing quite a bit with your latest statement: EN and MT are perfect sets for knowledgeable investors, while the less sophisticated would gravitate towards Diagon Alley.

    I have to disagree. MT was available for $97 from [email protected] while DA was $100 from Walmart very close together at the end of last year. I bought both but if I had to choose one at those prices I would have gone DA without a doubt.....IMO DA will hit $300 well before MT. One other potential issue for MT is there is a good chance of a rehash after the new ship retires....there will never be another DA.

    Now if you are talking about buying at retail (shudder) I can see your point for the very short term...2 years from now however DA will be well ahead of MT. In the end both were fine choices.....as usual what separates investors is not just selecting your investment but mostly your entry price and time (just ask the noob goldbugs lol).
    I do agree @rocao in terms of the investment potential of Lego trains as a whole. Steam vs. Diesels aside...lol...What it "boils" down to is that I think the EN was discounted more than the Maersk Train and I don't have official Lego production numbers in front of me, but I think TLG produced less Maersk Trains than the Emerald Night.

  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    rocao said:

    First, you're changing the discussion. I didn't say Diagon Alley would not provide a good return; I was countering Pacific493 when he said that Emerald Night was not as sure a thing as Diagon Alley. My rationale was that there has been a decade's worth of releases that have been very similar to Emerald Night and cater to the same market that have performed well, while Diagon Alley has some facets of uniqueness that make its performance less predictable. So these indications did exist, just that it wasn't the popular sentiment on the forum.

    Second, even in light of your transmutation, you're taking liberties in your argument by stating what you think DA should appreciate to a year or two from now, and then saying that non-guaranteed return is a "sure thing".

    Third, Emerald Night was available for $63 on Black Friday 2011, and Maersk Train was available for $92 before retirement, so if your argument about the sureness of something is based on the factor of appreciation in 18-24 months, both those sets have done better, and by your logic have been surer things.

    What I actually said (or meant to say) was that DA was more widely PERCEIVED as a "sure thing" than sets like EN or MT. Think about it this way...for someone who has little to no background in Lego reselling, but gets interested after seeing sky high prices for sets like MF, TM, and GC, what is going to seem like a safer bet: a $120 train set with a few generic minifigures that is connected to a commercial shipping line or a $149 set with twelve minifigures that is connected to one of the most recognizable and profitable book/movie properties in the world? That's the gist of how I look at it. People who didn't know anything other than they wanted to get themselves a piece of those MF-style profits would have jumped at a set like DA much more quickly than MT. I bought more MTs than DAs for exactly this reason.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    rocao said:

    MT is a perfect example of what I'm talking about. Go back and look at how long it took before EN was selling at or near 2X RRP...it was within a few months, if not weeks, of selling out. MT has risen to the same level, but did not rise as quickly as EN.

    To anyone who knows what they're doing, EN and MT are the perfect types of set to appreciate in the aftermarket. However, the supply on the resale market gets skewed by people who aren't necessarily as sophisticated and, for them, DA was a much surer bet than MT last year.

    I've been watching Emerald Night values since retirement, and I don't concur with your assertion that it appreciated as quickly as you state.

    According to Brickpicker it currently has a new market value of $231.57, and its appreciation over the past year has been 27.57%. This means that around July 2012 the value was $182 which is below double. This doesn't prove that the value wasn't higher previously, but that is so very rarely the case that I think it's more likely your memory is off, or that you are remembering the highest outliers of the time. I recall it was ~$150 on average. I do agree that EN had a sharper initial pop, but not so dramatic that it would alone be attributed to a vastly different reseller landscape and there could easily be a litany of other reasons.

    Beyond that, I think we're agreeing quite a bit with your latest statement: EN and MT are perfect sets for knowledgeable investors, while the less sophisticated would gravitate towards Diagon Alley. My point was that the discussions here are but a piece to the puzzle and not the be all and end all of sage advice. If one prescribed solely to the advice of this thread, they would have bought DA. If one looked beyond and identified other opportunities, they might have decided upon the Maersk Train.
    Brickpicker's data is incomplete and far from authoritative or accurate when it comes to the true secondary market value of Lego sets. I was selling ENs for $230 in November 2012 and have sold them well above $231.57 over the past few months. Regardless, if my memory is off, I'm open to evidence of how much EN was selling for after EOL. My recollection is that it jumped to the $180-200 range very quickly after it sold out. Whether that jump happened in December 2011 or January 2012, I can't remember exactly, but I do remember making a very conscious decision in January 2012 to hold on to the ones that I had even though I could have sold them for more than twice what I paid for them.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    This is what separates the men from the boys. Sure 2x RRP after fees is a great return, but 3xis even better as ling as you aren't losing money by NOT investing in something else.
    rancorbait
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Pitfall69 said:

    gmpirate said:

    Pitfall69 said:


    I assure you, other than Diagon Alley and maybe...maybe the last Hogwarts Castle, there aren't people with piles of Harry Potter sets waiting to sell them. So, I agree.

    Idk. I have not sold one HP set, I have piles, and can't imagine I'm that unique. Sure the returns are good "now" but the sets are still appreciating at a good pace. Imo, HP is just an exception to the rule of getting a good return and quickly flipping them into another set to get that initial burst again.
    You have piles of what HP sets? I know people have the last releases and piles of DA and HC, but what about earlier releases? Do you have a stack of The Burrow 20 boxes high?
    All the HP sets (red boxes) -- including Burrows, HP Express, etc.. I believe I posted pics when I was buying them at the time. We were discussing our "supportive" wives and had to illustrate just how supportive mine was as the stacks spilled into our own bedroom :P

    Its possible I could have sold at least the Burrows by now, if I had the time, but I honestly don't. Maybe if I hadn't acquired more storage space I would be more motivated to sell, but I still have space!!
    Pitfall69Dougout
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Denver, CO, USAMember Posts: 1,659
    What you are you thoughts on #9489 ? It is sold out on [email protected] US but not sure if it is retired (been out 16 months). While it is only a battle pack, it looks like a great addition to the soon to be released #10236.
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