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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404

    Re: reading the whole thread:
    If anything, read how "green" LFT was back in the day and where he is now vis a vis LEGO reselling. Rome was not built in a day.

    Amen... Boy was I green! :)

    But we all started somewhere, and as the old saying goes... wherever you go, there you are! :)
    StillBuilding
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439

    I love this one :

    I don't think the EN aftermarket prices will climb too high (over 35%) in the next 6 months. Long-term heck ya, it'll hover around $200. The train theme is so incredibly consistent.

    The exact opposite happened :)

    Not a surprise at all. When was the last time Lego did a really good steamer before EN? In the 1980s? It was not your average train set. Luckily I got the tail end of it and could buy one for myself at RRP right when it retired.
  • LobotLobot UKMember Posts: 1,018
    Apologies if this has been asked before, but any thoughts about either #7965 or #9516? They've both been on sale regularly at about 30% off in the UK during the last couple of months and I was debating grabbing a couple....
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    edited July 2013
    Lobot said:

    Apologies if this has been asked before, but any thoughts about either #7965 or #9516? They've both been on sale regularly at about 30% off in the UK during the last couple of months and I was debating grabbing a couple....

    30% off #7965 is better than 30% off #9516, though both sets are winners.
    Hardrada said:

    Not a surprise at all. When was the last time Lego did a really good steamer before EN? In the 1980s? It was not your average train set. Luckily I got the tail end of it and could buy one for myself at RRP right when it retired.

    A really good steamer before the EN? Never. The Emerald Night was a pioneer in detail and design.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,574
    tensor said:

    ^^Here are my thoughts on each of the "big three" (plus providing fodder for 1.5 years from now when we can all look back and laugh)...

    DS - Worst of the bunch. Will there really be enough people willing to pay north of $700 (enough to make it worthwhile to resell) to support the number currently stored away? My bet is no, and it won't get much above $600 for years. Very risky, plus, the risk is concentrated. One deal goes bad or you get scammed, or you drop one into a puddle and you lose one DS, you're out a lot of money.
    .................................

    FB - Best bet of the three. A wonderful set - one of the best modulars imho - at a good price point that could reasonably reach $300+ in the aftermarket even with the massive number sitting in closets. The series pull on this one will be strong, but consistent. There will always be people getting newer modulars that will want to go back and get the old ones, and the FB will be available to them at not-insane 3rd party prices, whereas GG and CC are pretty much gone for the general populace.

    Bonus, you also mentioned the Haunted House. Anyone who doesn't pick up a couple of these for resale is kidding themselves. The appeal of this thing after EOL will be massive. I only hope that the success of it results in a similarly-sized Santa's Workshop for the winter village next year.

    DS: I agree that this one is a bit lame for the short term if people are looking at it for that, because you will see people selling them to get their money back that was tied up, but I think this is a big riser when it is EOL'd for a while. It is a marathon for this one, not a sprint.
    I think Tower Bridge can be lumped into this description as well.
    It will do better than FB or Haunted house in the long run, the catch is that is the long run.

    I agree about the FB. It will sell and sell well right away regardless of the quantity. It will not be a kings ransom, but it IS a Fire station in mod format. I think LEGO proves every time they put out a new fire station that people love fire stations, regardless of how many are out there. Plus it is a great design and can also be broken up for parts, which some people are probably doing now with the extras they have. I also seriously doubt that LEGO does another mod Fire Station after this (which is probably another reason it has been out for as long as it has). I would not be surprised to see these on eBay hitting 250 3-6 months after EOL if not sooner, if only for speculators that are gambling it will double their money after a while.

    Haunted house is a bit of a sleeper I think, mostly because it is not often found on sale anywhere. If that stays that way (and LEGO does not 'sale' them into EOL) and it is EOL'd after Halloween but before Christmas then that could be a whopper.
    Then again us talking about it could change that a bit :-)

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    ^Although I love the Emerald Night, it never fit in with my train layout and makes a better display piece. It is a gorgeous train, but there is a reason why Lego puts out more diesel and electric trains than steam engines. I don't think the demand is there.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,146
    I picked up the extra FB "just to have". I never made it to purchasing the Emerald Night, wish I did as I have the Maersk on display and would have done the same with this...I remember looking at Emerald on sale on amazon and almost pulling the trigger, then said, "nah, I'll wait"...
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937

    DS: I agree that this one is a bit lame for the short term if people are looking at it for that, because you will see people selling them to get their money back that was tied up, but I think this is a big riser when it is EOL'd for a while. It is a marathon for this one, not a sprint.
    I think Tower Bridge can be lumped into this description as well.
    It will do better than FB or Haunted house in the long run, the catch is that is the long run.

    The biggest problem with any marathoner is money tied up. The longer you have it tied up, the better the multiplier from RRP you better get to make money, as opposed to other investments. It's not unrealistic to thing that 10 years from now the DS will break $1000, but that's ten whole years of a) not making money elsewhere and b) holding onto that valuable inventory.

  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,146
    edited July 2013
    @tensor you are right. I mean, take it a level further away from LEGO. 10 years of solid investment on the stock exchange even and your $$$ on return is probably going to exceed this value. Plus, you don't have to worry about storing it, etc.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^Although I love the Emerald Night, it never fit in with my train layout and makes a better display piece. It is a gorgeous train, but there is a reason why Lego puts out more diesel and electric trains than steam engines. I don't think the demand is there.

    As a fan of trains, Lego and otherwise, I disagree. Most model railroad manufacturers release pretty much equal numbers of steam vs. diesel (electric is a tiny portion, they just aren't nearly as popular). I wish Lego followed the same pattern.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Looks like the safe bet was to heavily invest in Harry Potter.. Those sets are selling like crazy right now.
    Pitfall69Dougout
  • charlatan13charlatan13 Member Posts: 118
    Speaking as someone who is still very green (the few extra sets that I occasionally buy always end up getting opened somehow) I laugh when I look back at when I started reading this thread and today (and yes, I've read it all).

    Around October 2012 I saw the Amazon/Wal-Mart price drops on DS, read the comments about how it 'might' be retiring and I pulled the trigger (not that I needed much encouragement). I know I got a good price and I don't have to worry about missing out.

    Maybe if a few of the more influential posters started saying 'FB and DS will be around for a long time to purchase' someone higher-up from Lego (they have to have someone who reads the Lego forums occasionally) will make the call to actually make those two EOL.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    Regarding FB: Are these disappearing from store shelves yet? I'm actually coming back around on the modulars and might pick up one before they're all gone. I figure I have a few months. I don't expect it to disappear over night.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    edited July 2013
    mathew said:

    Regarding FB: Are these disappearing from store shelves yet? I'm actually coming back around on the modulars and might pick up one before they're all gone. I figure I have a few months. I don't expect it to disappear over night.

    No, they aren't. Yes, you should. You might, you might not. Yes, they will.
    rancorbait
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    I suppose there could be a run on FB when word gets out that it's officially retired. I was kind of hoping to see another sale at Amazon, but I realize I missed that (or chose to miss it).

    With the frequency that I check Brickset I'll catch the final countdown to retirement and jump on board at that time.
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    tensor said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    ^Although I love the Emerald Night, it never fit in with my train layout and makes a better display piece. It is a gorgeous train, but there is a reason why Lego puts out more diesel and electric trains than steam engines. I don't think the demand is there.

    As a fan of trains, Lego and otherwise, I disagree. Most model railroad manufacturers release pretty much equal numbers of steam vs. diesel (electric is a tiny portion, they just aren't nearly as popular). I wish Lego followed the same pattern.
    I was talking in terms of Lego trains. My grandfather had a steam engine and I know most of his peers did as well. Lego is primarily for kids and I think kids can relate more with modern trains than steam engines.
    As time goes on, you might see the same thing happen with Model Railroads, but only time will tell.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Pitfall69 said:

    tensor said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    ^Although I love the Emerald Night, it never fit in with my train layout and makes a better display piece. It is a gorgeous train, but there is a reason why Lego puts out more diesel and electric trains than steam engines. I don't think the demand is there.

    As a fan of trains, Lego and otherwise, I disagree. Most model railroad manufacturers release pretty much equal numbers of steam vs. diesel (electric is a tiny portion, they just aren't nearly as popular). I wish Lego followed the same pattern.
    I was talking in terms of Lego trains. My grandfather had a steam engine and I know most of his peers did as well. Lego is primarily for kids and I think kids can relate more with modern trains than steam engines.
    As time goes on, you might see the same thing happen with Model Railroads, but only time will tell.
    Thomas the tank engine is steam and every little kid loves thomas ;)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    mathew said:

    I suppose there could be a run on FB when word gets out that it's officially retired. I was kind of hoping to see another sale at Amazon, but I realize I missed that (or chose to miss it).

    With the frequency that I check Brickset I'll catch the final countdown to retirement and jump on board at that time.

    I think the countdown for FB and DS will be more epic than the countdown for IS. To literally see it gone for good will be a sight to behold, but even then, I don't think I will believe it.

  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,274

    Thomas the tank engine is steam and every little kid loves thomas ;)

    Exactly. If it weren't for things like Thomas I doubt many of "today's" kids would even know what a train was. Unless of course the live next to the tracks then they'll grow up knowing.

  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,842
    edited July 2013
    Been thinking about picking up FB to, looks like a good set to start a modular collection with.

    Keep it up @Pitfall69 and @tensor! gotta love a good argument ;-) Kidding :-)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    I'll add to it @tensor. I'm thumbing through the latest MTH Model train catalog. There seem to be more diesel offerings than steam engines. Not just with the engine itself, but with the cargo and passenger cars as well. There are also subway and other electric transportation as well. I know this is just one manufacturer, but I think MTH is the best in the business.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    graphite said:

    Thomas the tank engine is steam and every little kid loves thomas ;)

    Exactly. If it weren't for things like Thomas I doubt many of "today's" kids would even know what a train was. Unless of course the live next to the tracks then they'll grow up knowing.

    Thomas is a character in a show that happens to be a steam engine. If Thomas was a diesel engine he would be loved just as much. Kids love the show and the characters.
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    tensor said:


    A really good steamer before the EN? Never. The Emerald Night was a pioneer in detail and design.

    Fans of 70-80s' Lego trains would disagree. I'm not one of them (more into early 90s 9V) but even I can see that #7750 was a great model for its time.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    edited July 2013
    Pitfall69 said:

    I'll add to it @tensor. I'm thumbing through the latest MTH Model train catalog. There seem to be more diesel offerings than steam engines. Not just with the engine itself, but with the cargo and passenger cars as well. There are also subway and other electric transportation as well. I know this is just one manufacturer, but I think MTH is the best in the business.

    I never wrote that there weren't more diesels, or that electric trains were nonexistent.
    Pitfall69 said:

    Thomas is a character in a show that happens to be a steam engine. If Thomas was a diesel engine he would be loved just as much. Kids love the show and the characters.

    No.
    Hardrada said:


    Fans of 70-80s' Lego trains would disagree. I'm not one of them (more into early 90s 9V) but even I can see that #7750 was a great model for its time.

    A great representation of a steam train? No. Of a Lego steam train? Maybe. For its time? You bet.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    No? He's not a steam engine or kids wouldn't love him the same if he were a diesel?

    Regardless, it is just my opinion and my theory as to why Lego chooses to produce more diesel/electric trains than steam engines. I DO know that the Maersk Train has caught up to the Emerald Night and will soon pass it in value.
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    tensor said:


    Hardrada said:


    Fans of 70-80s' Lego trains would disagree. I'm not one of them (more into early 90s 9V) but even I can see that #7750 was a great model for its time.

    A great representation of a steam train? No. Of a Lego steam train? Maybe. For its time? You bet.
    30 years from now Emerald Night might seem similarly outdated as 7750 is now. Who knows, maybe in 2043 it won't be considered a great representation of a steam train.:)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    Oh man. 2043? Will be still be waiting for DS and FB to retire?
    richlsjerakatdougtslegofanfromleeds
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    Hardrada said:

    tensor said:


    Hardrada said:


    Fans of 70-80s' Lego trains would disagree. I'm not one of them (more into early 90s 9V) but even I can see that #7750 was a great model for its time.

    A great representation of a steam train? No. Of a Lego steam train? Maybe. For its time? You bet.
    30 years from now Emerald Night might seem similarly outdated as 7750 is now. Who knows, maybe in 2043 it won't be considered a great representation of a steam train.:)
    I agree, given new pieces, technology, nanites you are probably right on the money.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    2043? Whoa! Slow down there. I can't even predict 2014 or 2015.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^2043, I think that's when the Cubs win the World Series. According to the Almanac.
    samiam391Pitfall69timinchicago
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,842
    Pitfall69 said:

    Oh man. 2043? Will be still be waiting for DS and FB to retire?

    I hope so, at this rate I might still not have either sets by then.

  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    edited July 2013
    Pitfall69 said:


    Thomas is a character in a show that happens to be a steam engine. If Thomas was a diesel engine he would be loved just as much. Kids love the show and the characters.

    Obviously you never saw the episode "Steamies vs. Diesels". Diesels are bad trains and always up to no good.

    And don't even get me started on the troublesome trucks!
    Pitfall69
  • 1x11x1 Member Posts: 143
    On ebay Emerald Night seems to be selling for about £220 and Maersk Train for about £165 so it's still got a way to go before it catches Emerald Night. True Emerald Night has been EOL for longer but the Maersk Train cost more in the first place.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    I'm basing this off of average Bricklink prices and Amazon US
  • 1x11x1 Member Posts: 143
    Fair enough. I'm looking at sold prices on ebay UK.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    I hope I'm not sounding argumentative. Most of the time people simply state that a set will do better than another set, but does not offer many reasons why.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    It is ok though. I think the month of July is "Pick on Pitfall" month.
    LegoFanTexas
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited July 2013
    Pitfall69 said:

    July is "Pick on Pitfall" month.

    ^ I would keep that on the down low. (he he) There are still 2 weeks left in the month! And, you know how brutal this crowd can be. They may start making comments like "Pitfall is so dense it takes him 2 hours to watch 60 Minutes!", or maybe even worse. Even something like "Pitfall doesn't know a LEGO from an Eggo." It could get ugly. :-)
    GothamConstructionCo
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    I heard @Pitfall69 openly hates steam trains, and owns a Maersk blue shirt for every day of the week.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    I heard @Pitfall69 likes Chima and Friends eewwww!
    Dougout
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,358
    I am pretty sure @pitfall69 owns every Jack Stone set and displays them proudly in his office.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    *sigh
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    @Pitfall69 plays with M*** B****!!!!
    rancorbaitBrickDancerMathBuilderchrisdojo
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    Ok. I didn't mean for it to be open season on me :p

    I DO own a few Maersk Blue shirts LOL. I didn't say I hated steam engines. I just said that a steam engine doesn't fit into my layout.

    One time it did take me 2 hours to watch "60 Minutes"

    ...and sadly, I DO own several Jake Stone sets, but they were in a large Lego lot that I bought :(
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,358
    and I was expecting a 'Laugh it up fuzzball(s)' retort. We must have broken his spirit. Sorry Pitfall. :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453

    @Pitfall69 plays with M*** B****!!!!

    That's just downright hateful!!!

    FollowsClosely
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    A Thousand pardon's...

    I'll go watch Episode 1 three times in a row as penance...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    edited July 2013

    and I was expecting a 'Laugh it up fuzzball(s)' retort. We must have broken his spirit. Sorry Pitfall. :)

    I'm driving now. Ill get back to you on that.

  • kwkwkwkw USAMember Posts: 1,207
    @LegoFanTexas Dude, that's too far, hating on @Pitfall69 due to his love for Lego Galidor (he looks like "Nick" btw) is one thing, but bringing the M***B**** thing up is going too far, I wouldn't wish that on my worst enemy. I'm gonna go wash my hands multiple times now for typing that horrific name....
  • rancorbaitrancorbait Manitoba CanadaMember Posts: 1,842
    edited July 2013
    WOW! did you hear what he just said about you? @Pitfall69 SICK EM! SICK EM! ;-)
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