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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ I have been debating how much Ninjago to keep. I still have stacks of some of that stuff, mostly the better, but some of it worse. Some of the older red card spinners that never did anything, but also some Destiny's Bounty.

    Will that ship go higher, or might it even fall next year?

    Hmm...
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Target has Jabba's Palace at $95, didn't seem on sale, just the way it was marked. If it goes down a little more I'll pick a few up.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    Jabba's Palace SHOULD be doing very well by next Christmas. Better still if the Khetanna is somehow EOL by that point as well.
  • TheOneVeyronianTheOneVeyronian Member Posts: 1,372
    Speaking of Ninjago, I wonder what other's thoughts are on #9457 Wrecking Ball? I'm in the UK and it's probably a different market to the US. Only asking since the set is definitely EOL'ed over here and it wasn't widely available outside of Lego themselves, I think. But recently I saw one shop, probably the only one in the UK (not online) that was selling a few for £37.50, 25% off RRP. Right now it's not going for much more than that. But give it another six months, could it be worth much more MISB?

    Just wondering whether to bite at that price or steer clear. Any input is helpful. Any thoughts anyone?
  • vitreolumvitreolum Member Posts: 1,406
    I've analyzed 9457 Wrecking Ball as well over the last few months and it doesn't sell very well even under retail some months after EOL. Not sure what will happen in a year with it since availability is not that high, but I wouldn't risk it, there are a lot better investments out there that will bring a higher profit in a year.
  • TheOneVeyronianTheOneVeyronian Member Posts: 1,372
    I think even investing in certain HF sets might be more viable because over here in the UK, once they go off retail shelves, they can achieve silly money one year later if you pick the right set. I predict that #44014 might follow this pattern, this set is quite similar to previous sets that are now worth a small fortune. It could be worth double soon after EOL because not many keep these sets for investment so they get very rare very quickly. But I think I should only think of investing when it's being sold for at least 20% off in retail.

    Okay, too early to say because this set isn't even for sale in the UK yet, but just my thoughts on a maybe under-appreciated line.

    As you might know I'm very much a casual collector and not a reseller (I do sell minifigs quite a bit though to claw back some of the orginal purchase price), but as a student I'm always looking for things that I can sell on for a quick profit. That's why I get excited when I see cheap Zombies for sale. Yes, here in the UK they are still occassionally sold in just one shop. They sell quickly becuase they're being sold under RRP, up to 20% off.

    And @vitreolum Exactly my thoughts on the set as well, so I think this is one to avoid. I've already got one, I don't need another.

    Of course, all IMO on the HF stuff. Once a few more investors spot the potential and maybe agree with me, it will have a negative effect and send the post-EOL price down. If only all my comments came with a warning! :-P
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    I guess this reflects a mentality angle to reselling. No matter how much money can be made off Bionicle or Hero Factory things, I have absolutely no desire to involve myself with them. It's probably because I have no "gut feel" for what will be a winner, whereas I do for the sets & themes I do like.

    Btw, nothing personal against Bionicle/HF or those that like it, it's just not my bag - just making an observation.
  • TheOneVeyronianTheOneVeyronian Member Posts: 1,372
    ^ I agree that HF reselling isn't for everybody, everyone has different reselling interests and I respect that. Acquired taste I guess (I was raised on, amongst other things, Bionicle), and carries perhaps a significantly higher risk than something like UCS Star Wars, or any incredibly popular but not readily available set *stares at #9465 *. I don't actually do it, I'm just commenting on reselling patterns I've noticed on fleabay for these sets.

    It's like a popular brand of spread: You either love HF or you hate it :-)
    (Hate's a strong word though, I don't think AFOL's 'hate' HF, I'll just say 'not interested' instead)

    Early days I know, but I do wonder how #10237 could do once it EOL's and is unavailable. Sorry if this one's already been discussed, I haven't read this entire thread. Nice to predict the future though.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    TheOneVeyronian said:

    Early days I know, but I do wonder how #10237 could do once it EOL's and is unavailable. Sorry if this one's already been discussed, I haven't read this entire thread. Nice to predict the future though.

    LOTR, like Harry Potter, isn't going anywhere anytime soon, and both have a rabid fan base. The difference I think is that Lego and Harry Potter gel a bit more because HP is geared for a younger audience. That said, I don't think it will hit Hogwarts Castle #4842 numbers (which are still climbing), but I think the Tower is a showpiece, not unlike the Imperial Shuttle #10212, that can only go up in value after EOL.
    y2josh
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,556
    tensor said:

    I guess this reflects a mentality angle to reselling. No matter how much money can be made off Bionicle or Hero Factory things, I have absolutely no desire to involve myself with them. It's probably because I have no "gut feel" for what will be a winner, whereas I do for the sets & themes I do like.

    And with real lego sets, there is always the option of opening them and using the parts / selling them off on BL, whereas if you are not into bionicle or hero factory and get stuck with a load of them, then most of the parts are useless.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Are there any retired 10xxx sets that haven't gone up in value?
  • MathBuilderMathBuilder Member Posts: 150
    ^ 10215.
    RRP US$99.99. BL sales 6 months average $95.21
  • TheOneVeyronianTheOneVeyronian Member Posts: 1,372
    ^^^ No probs for me, I have over 1000 HF pieces and always looking for rarer parts. There's one BrickLink store that solely sells HF and related parts, and it's actually quite popular. But then I'm an expert in HF MOC's and combining them with System bricks to create unique looking stuff.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    MathBuilder said:

    ^ 10215.
    RRP US$99.99. BL sales 6 months average $95.21

    Ah, the poor Jedi Starfighter, the red-headed step child of the UCS.

    Did anyone ever honestly look at that set and say to themselves "hmm, that thing is a winner." I understand it's been discounted heavily here and there, but really, some sets just sigh "meh" from cradle to grave.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    It's just so ugly..
  • sjerakatsjerakat Member Posts: 27
    So do you guys think the B-Wing is retiring this year? Brickset shows that it was released in fall 2012 so it seems soon, however it has disappeared from the catalog, is unavailable at shop@home and I have 3 Lego brand stores here in the Bay Area and none of them have any in store. Seems to be the case? I'm picking up an MISB one for $150 off Craigslist and I would be enthusiastic about it retiring extremely soon. 1 year set life seems like it would be great for value
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I never bought it. Episode 1-3 still gives me the chills. I do resell some sets here and there. Mostly older sets that I have had in my collection for about 10+ years. As far as buying new sets to resell, I always buy sets that I have a gut feeling about. Also, if I am wrong about the set, I will like it enough to add to my collection somehow. It is a win-win for me either way. Hero Factory may or may not be popular. I imagine we are just getting the opinion of a person who is an avid collector or an "expert" in HF. Me...I'm staying away from any Bionicle/Hero Factory.
  • luckyrussluckyruss Member Posts: 872
    At some point the dark red 6 x 14 plate in the Jedi Starfighter will become more valuable than the set itself!
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,836
    I think the rumor is BWing is gone at the end of this year.. The BWing is not terribly popular (compared to an XWing anyways)
    But if you did not get one when it was 99.99 from LEGO then it probably is not worth buying (if thinking about reselling), unless you just want one for yourself in which case you can do one of two things:
    Watch Amazon.com (and their today's deals)for a sale on them (usually around 145-150)
    Hope that LEGO puts them on sale for 99.99 again to clear out stock
  • TheOneVeyronianTheOneVeyronian Member Posts: 1,372
    I only collect HF because it ties in very nicely with a few of my other hobbies as I mostly MOC with it anyway (look at the guy in my profile picture, he's actually made of Lego believe it or not). They often work their way into photographic artworks that I do when I'm not building Lego (see how all my hobbies eventually link into Lego?).

    What it is is that HF is very popular amongst the KFOL and to some extent the TFOL community. But it's very rare to get an AFOHFL I think (I've seen a few on here BTW). They often build and play with the sets, that's why old MISB sets command such high prices, because of minimal reseller investment and overall they probably make less HF than, say, Star Wars or other very popular themes. Once EOL'ed, the bigger sets come with really hefty price tags, and even auctions (which are rare) for certain sets skyrocket. I've seen OPENED AND BUILT #7145 sets go for over £60 (roughly $100).

    I'm not trying to convert any AFOL's here BTW, but rather I'm just discussing what is usually an overlooked theme that shows interesting post-EOL patterns and just wanted to share my 'knowledge' I've passively picked up.

    BTW, HF isn't even my favourite theme. I actually didn't like most of the first sets at all when they came out. But I nearly dipped into a 'dark age' then.

    But then again, if we didn't have HF, we probably couldn't have had all the great System sets we have today. The Galaxy Squad bugs with their legs, largely derived from HF claws, and mechs from the Ninjago and Chima lines use some degree of HF too. Thus proving that HF and System can work well together.

    I'll be quiet now :-) No need to say you aren't getting involved in HF though (I already know that! :-P), just giving my 2 cents, and hopefully an interesting insight that would have otherwise never have reared it's head.
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Member Posts: 1,079
    The Brand-stores in Germany are cleaning shelves,the 1.wave of LOTR,Jabba's Palace,Y-Wing,Tie-Fighter plus the Mine from "City"are all on sale for 30%off! Online they're still selling regularly but i guess this "sale"somehow confirms that these sets will dissappear soon!
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    Concord Mills in NC has the remaining Monster Fighter sets 20% off. That was the only mark down I noticed. No Castles, though.
  • hoyatableshoyatables Member Posts: 873
    So did Potomac Mills in VA.
  • BlueMoonUSABlueMoonUSA Member Posts: 116
    So...with the Orc Forge being out of stock at both Target.com and Lego.com....has this one (besides B&M's) kicked the bucket?
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    ^The flood waters have arrived.
    jasorhoyatables
  • hoyatableshoyatables Member Posts: 873
    ^^I still see it in stores with some regularity. I had it in my hands multiple times but cannot bring myself to buy it. I just don't see the appeal.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 Member Posts: 2,146
    I never found the appeal of Orc forge either...the limited edition or special edition whichever one it is marked on the box "kind" of got me until I realized hey that's what they want.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,836
    ^--- I'm sure that people felt the same way about the Market Street when it was out. I mean... 90 dollars for THAT? And it did not have furniture, and was super detailed and bad floor plan for the house, I mean who would want that?

    I'm not saying Orc Forge will go for crazy money like MS, but I think there will be a market for those who do want it, either to complete a collection, or for army building (for the white hand armor).
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    edited July 2013
    madforLEGO said:

    ^--- I'm sure that people felt the same way about the Market Street when it was out. I mean... 90 dollars for THAT? And it did not have furniture, and was super detailed and bad floor plan for the house, I mean who would want that?

    I still say that.
    itsnotmeBuriedinBricksCircleKjasor
  • CircleKCircleK Member Posts: 1,055
    I also don't care for the Orc forge. A brick built Ent could have saved it, but I digress.

    Someone mentioned previously that the set pairs well with the Tower, so that may increase demand. Especially if it does retire so close to the Tower's release.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 Member Posts: 2,146
    Agreed, if people start seeing a good pairing it will quickly raise demand and we could see a bump. Someone said earlier too that this would be a good army builder, a little pricey but I see where you get this from the white hand and all.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    edited July 2013
    It's too bad they didn't try to do something like Jabba/Rancor with Orthanc & Orc Forge, with specific connection points or a shared portal. That would have driven the collectibility of both sets upwards.

    As for the forge itself, my opinion is that if you are a LOTR collector and don't have one yet, you're going to be sorry if you wait much longer.
  • jasorjasor Member Posts: 839
    ^^ Is it really pricey, as an army builder anymore? Orcs are just getting more and more expensive, and you get elements with this option.

    ^ I agree with that sentiment. Light brick, White Hand, Orthanc tie-in, Limited availability in some locales. It's gonna turn into a tough find.
  • hoyatableshoyatables Member Posts: 873
    Current thoughts on EOL date for Tower Bridge #10214?
  • joel4motionjoel4motion Member Posts: 959
    hoyatables said:

    Current thoughts on EOL date for Tower Bridge #10214?

    I think summer of 2014 has been thrown around a bit. Id like to see it go soon to be honest as I have a few!

  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    ^Is the VW Bus done this fall? I'm thinking it is, but I just keep waiting for it to get back to $100 on Amazon.
  • JessyDooDahJessyDooDah Member Posts: 228
    ^ My sources suggest that there will be a mini VW Camper polybag (much like the mini sopwith) available this autumn. So I think if they are doing another promo push, then it might be around for a little longer!
  • chrisdojochrisdojo Member Posts: 169
    I'm bummed that my LEGO Orc Forge order was canceled due to insufficient product availability. I ordered it when it was still "In Stock" end of last month.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,836
    edited July 2013
    ^- that happened with me when they had holiday trains on clearance for 50 and they put my order on back-order until they were gone then I still heard nothing, so I contacted them and they said no stock available, sorry.

    The lesson learned here is if they are 'back-ordered' on your order and you see them available then either buy them again, or call their CS and ask about it. Do not assume.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    Anybody going to buy a few 41999s for resale?
  • charlatan13charlatan13 Member Posts: 118
    Orc Forge definitely cleared out of Targets around me. I already have the one and I enjoyed the build but there are just too many other sets that I want to buy right now (there were five on the shelf the other day and now they are all sold). Besides the light brick, I think the White Hand stuff is the big 'if' in terms of Lego reproducing it later. I do think the Tower of Orthanc will only increase the interest in the Orc Forge, but as always, time will tell since I think a lot of people who missed Zombies might have stocked up on the Forge this time around.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye Member Posts: 1,831
    Amazon has dropped the price of Jabba's Palace, and it doesn't seem to be a price match (to Wal-Mart or Target, at least). I had expected this to be around until Christmas, or at least Black Friday, but is it possible they're trying to clear it out now? Or is this just a summer sales slump incentive? If it does go before Christmas, what do you think it will be going for by Christmas?
  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    JamesJT said:

    Anybody going to buy a few 41999s for resale?

    Not released yet are they? But yes a couple wouldn't go a-miss :)

  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,728
    JamesJT said:

    Anybody going to buy a few 41999s for resale?

    I will be very unhappy if they allow 5 per customer on this and it sells out in 10 minutes. I will be getting one (I hope) and maybe someday if it is selling for stupid money I will part with it used to buy other Lego but I really just want to build one and play with it.

  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    When is it due for release?
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,377
    edited July 2013
    ^ August.

  • legofanfromleedslegofanfromleeds Member Posts: 418
    stevemack said:

    JamesJT said:

    Anybody going to buy a few 41999s for resale?

    Not released yet are they? But yes a couple wouldn't go a-miss :)

    do we have an official release date yet ? Sorry if its been mentioned before.... I'm getting old
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    I never found the Orc Forge appealing. Of course I fail to find Orcs appealing in general.
  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    1st August from what I've read, Lego exclusive limited to 20000 sets... Although Minecraft was limited aswell.....
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    JamesJT said:

    Anybody going to buy a few 41999s for resale?

    Not buying a "few"....already have the credit lines set up and the shelves cleared for this little gift from TLG.
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