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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    ^^ You would also have to house a bigger box, put more capital upfront, and store for longer for #4842.

    To each their own, of course. Kudos to you folks that have enough storage space and capital to buy 8 of the 4842 and hold for two years. If the Funhouse were to EOL, and hit Christmas this year, even at 3 of them...you'd spend less intial investment, have less space taken up, and make just fine on 2.5x RRP, IMHO.

    Big sets yield big returns, but they also yield more space limitations, more initial capital, and sell much much slower. Until they dont, obviously. :P
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    Anything Batman is a safe bet. At some point, Lego will not have active Batman sets available, and you know what will happen then.
    binaryeyeFollowsClosely
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367


    Why was it difficult to find ? Was it so popular then that [email protected] could not keep it in stock ?

    I believe that was the case. IIRC, it came out just before Christmas and sold out, then was in and out of stock until the end of April 2012.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited July 2013
    jasor said:

    ^^ You would also have to house a bigger box, put more capital upfront, and store for longer for #4842.

    To each their own, of course. Kudos to you folks that have enough storage space and capital to buy 8 of the 4842 and hold for two years. If the Funhouse were to EOL, and hit Christmas this year, even at 3 of them...you'd spend less intial investment, have less space taken up, and make just fine on 2.5x RRP, IMHO.

    Big sets yield big returns, but they also yield more space limitations, more initial capital, and sell much much slower. Until they dont, obviously. :P

    But I'm trying to compare apples to apples here, i.e. comparing 3 Funhouses against 1 Hogwarts. The initial capital is roughly the same, the storage space is roughly the same, and storage length is the same (assuming that the size of a set has no true bearing on the time it takes for a set to appreciate).

    Option 1) 3 Funhouses = 3 boxes, 3 packing & labelings, 3 auctions/listings, 3 separate transactions

    Option 2) 1 Hogwarts = 1 box, 1 packing & labeling, 1 auction/listing, 1 transaction

    Assuming both sets end up at the same appreciation level, both options net you the same end profit, but option 1 was 3x more difficult.
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    ^ I guess it would depend on when you bought Hogwarts, since it came out in 2010, and EOL'd a while ago. I've got both. I'd be curious to see which one was grabbed up first given the same amount of time after EOL for the most $$ comparitively.

    Batman I and II both still sell like hotcakes. Hmmm.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited July 2013
    jasor said:

    ^ I guess it would depend on when you bought Hogwarts, since it came out in 2010, and EOL'd a while ago. I've got both. I'd be curious to see which one was grabbed up first given the same amount of time after EOL for the most $$ comparitively.

    Batman I and II both still sell like hotcakes. Hmmm.

    My grand thesis up there also assumed things were bought at RRP, certainly you can't get a Hogwarts for RRP today. The set was for comparison only. I probably should have used Helm's Deep since you can still get that at RRP.

    Anyway, you're right about earlier Batman's selling, but is it apples to apples? Did Lego make nearly the number of those sets that they are making today? Will the supply outstrip the demand? Will there be the same demand? Will the upcoming Justice League movie bomb horribly and sour everyone on Batman for decades? Stay tuned!
  • HarryPotterLoverHarryPotterLover Member Posts: 238
    @tensor Yeah, i would never bend the predicted numbers based on my own (sorry if I seemed that way at first Xp) also, another good example of this is on ebay I've seen funhouse Harley be more than original Batman Harley! It really does go to show sets can do surprising things in the aftermarket, or even when their not retired yet (ie- Ridiculous ebay Auctions thread)
  • HarryPotterLoverHarryPotterLover Member Posts: 238
    Maybe that't why this thread is so useful! :D
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Now I remember why I picked Hogwarts, to relate to you @HarryPotterLover :)
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,372
    tensor said:

    I find that to successfully pick winners, I need to detach myself from the emotional thoughts enough to objectively see a set for what it is, not for what it looks like to me or how it fares against my personal tastes.

    I actually prefer to do the opposite. I find that when I pick what I like, most of the time other people enjoy the set too and it does good in the aftermarket.

    Besides, if I pick what I like and it does really poorly in the aftermarket, I can just go grab it, rip off the seals, and build it. ;o)
    jasorLegoFanTexas
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    samiam391 said:

    Besides, if I pick what I like and it does really poorly in the aftermarket, I can just go grab it, rip off the seals, and build it. ;o)

    That is true, if you hav one or two of them. ;)

    When you have 50 of them... Not so much...
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,372

    samiam391 said:

    Besides, if I pick what I like and it does really poorly in the aftermarket, I can just go grab it, rip off the seals, and build it. ;o)

    That is true, if you hav one or two of them. ;)

    When you have 50 of them... Not so much...
    You've never had the urge to combine them and build a life size fire station or death star? ;o)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    If I lived 10x as long, then yes, I'd love to do that...

    But frankly, given how little time I have, I just don't have the time. :)

    Maybe if I built a life size Big Ben, then I'd have the time!

    (ha, see what I did there? :)
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ gotta love a timely pun. :-)
    slovakiasteph
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    We haven't had a good joke lately. It's about time.
    y2josh
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    If more time is the goal then you probably be better served by building a life size version of the BttF Delorean. I would hop in that blocky mess, travel back nine months ago, and tell myself to put down the Hearse and pick up the Zombies. I would also tell the younger version of myself to lay off the Canes Fried Chicken bc summer is coming and nobody wants to see that extra 10 lbs at the pool.
  • TinKnockerHimesTinKnockerHimes Member Posts: 76
    edited July 2013
    Why did the Zombies have such a short run compared to the rest of the line?
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,269
    Your run would be short too if being chased by zombies!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ I don't have to outrun the zombies, just my friend next to me. :)
    kwkw
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    ^ The sad consequences of high obesity rate in the US: it is such a struggle to outrun slowly walking zombies
    Dougout
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,269
    ^ depends on what zombie movie you think is correct. They're slow in Shaun of the Dead and Resident Evil but not so much in World War Z.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,439
    True, they are pretty fast in Day of the Dead too. The Zombies in Return of the Living Dead can tackle pretty good. In The Walking Dead the fat guy couldn't keep up and fell prey to the hoard.

    There are so many overweight people here in the US. Over 70% are overweight and over 30% are obese.
    Dougout
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,439

    Why did the Zombies have such a short run compared to the rest of the line?

    The Zombies was a Target exclusive. Not all exclusives have short runs. Licenced themes stick around like Star Wars Land Speeder and LOTR Orc Forge, but the Limo/Helicopter set was a very short run.
  • TinKnockerHimesTinKnockerHimes Member Posts: 76
    Thank you @pitfall69

    as I was just getting into LEGO around June of last year, I was trying to limit myself to just StarWars and Friends, My daughter was picking all the sets we bought, kept looking at all the MF sets and when I finally decided to just buy all the sets I wanted the zombies were already gone :(

    Now trying to refrain from spending $150 on the set just to finish the collection...
  • RonyarRonyar Member Posts: 373
    edited July 2013
    So when an obese person becomes a zombie, are they even slower, or does it all even out once they become zombies?? I never see a pack of slow moving obese zombies in movies. Do they just get completely devoured instead of being turned?
    (No obese lego either. That ABS diet seems to be working for them...)
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM Cork, IrelandMember Posts: 961
    asksol said:

    The funhouse was instantly recognizable to me, not from the movies but from Frank Miller comics.

    Not to mention Alan Moore - it was an important setting in The Killing Joke. The 'funhouse' image also strikes a nostalgic chord with me because of the legendary animated movie Mask of the Phantasm, in which the climactic scenes take place.

  • exciter1exciter1 Member Posts: 226
    Ronyar said:

    So when an obese person becomes a zombie, are they even slower, or does it all even out once they become zombies?? I never see a pack of slow moving obese zombies in movies. Do they just get completely devoured instead of being turned?
    (No obese lego either. That ABS diet seems to be working for them...)

    I bought one, hoping to get more later. It disappeared really fast.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited July 2013

    Why did the Zombies have such a short run compared to the rest of the line?

    My theory is that it was an afterthought set, because even though it's an exclusive, it doesn't fit like clockwork into the rest of the theme because there's no place for the zombie moonstone in the castle contraption. Pure speculation on my part has a Target rep telling Lego "Hey, we want something exclusive for this monster line you got coming." Lego responding "Uh, ok, how about we whip up a zombie set? Zombies are popular." Target "Sweet."

    Btw, the zombie moonstone, with the clutch hand reaching out of the ground, is by far the greatest of the moonstones :)
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    tensor said:

    Pure speculation on my part has a Target rep telling Lego "Hey, we want something exclusive for this monster line you got coming." Lego responding "Uh, ok, how about we whip up a zombie set? Zombies are popular." Target "Sweet."

    Was the set around for Halloween? I can't remember because I wasn't interested in the line at the time. If so, it could be that they just wanted something for the season.
    tensor said:

    Btw, the zombie moonstone, with the clutch hand reaching out of the ground, is by far the greatest of the moonstones :)

    In terms of "coolness factor", I'd agree. But for use in MOCs, etc., I think the Eye of Horus is the most interesting.
  • asksolasksol Member Posts: 101
    @Steve_J_OM You're right, it was Alan More's work I was thinking of! Not much of a comic geek, but I grew up reading my fathers collection :)
  • TinKnockerHimesTinKnockerHimes Member Posts: 76
    tensor said:

    Why did the Zombies have such a short run compared to the rest of the line?

    My theory is that it was an afterthought set, because even though it's an exclusive, it doesn't fit like clockwork into the rest of the theme because there's no place for the zombie moonstone in the castle contraption. Pure speculation on my part has a Target rep telling Lego "Hey, we want something exclusive for this monster line you got coming." Lego responding "Uh, ok, how about we whip up a zombie set? Zombies are popular." Target "Sweet."

    Btw, the zombie moonstone, with the clutch hand reaching out of the ground, is by far the greatest of the moonstones :)
    Well thanks for talking me into buying it :D

    Ebay here I come!!

  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    I actually disliked the set. I thought the hammer truck was way too campy, even when compared to the rest of the theme. If I remember correctly, one of the figs wouldn't even fit into the coffin either. The figs themselves are great though, so I just bought them individually before prices went nuts.

    # 40076 is another MF that seems to go high, but in its case there is nothing spectacular about it. Zombie driver was widely available. I think in both cases, the high demand is mainly a result of completers (that's my new nickname for people who suffer from that disorder).
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,064
    Pitfall69 said:

    True, they are pretty fast in Day of the Dead too. The Zombies in Return of the Living Dead can tackle pretty good. In The Walking Dead the fat guy couldn't keep up and fell prey to the hoard.

    There are so many overweight people here in the US. Over 70% are overweight and over 30% are obese.

    In fairness the Walking dead fat guy was shot in the leg if I am thinking of the guy you are thinking of. I think the Zombie survival handbook (Yes there is such a thing) explains zombie speed.
    y2josh
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    CircleK said:

    I actually disliked the set. I thought the hammer truck was way too campy, even when compared to the rest of the theme. If I remember correctly, one of the figs wouldn't even fit into the coffin either. The figs themselves are great though, so I just bought them individually before prices went nuts.

    # 40076 is another MF that seems to go high, but in its case there is nothing spectacular about it. Zombie driver was widely available. I think in both cases, the high demand is mainly a result of completers (that's my new nickname for people who suffer from that disorder).

    I'll see your #40076 and raise you #5000644 as a set being valued much more than the sum of its parts.
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    Regarding Batman legos, just like Star Wars, I always feel like this forum undervalues the threat of set refreshes. The old Arkham Asylum was a steady $600 set, now since they refreshed it, it sells for around $400.

    It's also almost a given that over time, minifigs and sets will get better with refreshes, not worse. Consumers will likely prefer the newer sets.

    And since 5-10 years ago, there weren't nearly as many resellers, I don't think all the old models hold true.

    That said, if you are flipping in 1-2 years after EOL, not an issue. 4-5+ years, I think it's a serious issue.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,439

    Pitfall69 said:

    True, they are pretty fast in Day of the Dead too. The Zombies in Return of the Living Dead can tackle pretty good. In The Walking Dead the fat guy couldn't keep up and fell prey to the hoard.

    There are so many overweight people here in the US. Over 70% are overweight and over 30% are obese.

    In fairness the Walking dead fat guy was shot in the leg if I am thinking of the guy you are thinking of. I think the Zombie survival handbook (Yes there is such a thing) explains zombie speed.
    I think you are right. I though for some reason when they jumped from the school window, the lager guy hurt himself and was limping. He was easily going to get torn up and that jerk shit him in the leg for good measure. I will have to go back and see.

  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    ^ oh, Shane most definitely "shot" Otis to get away...although Otis may have indeed done the above on his own leg. ;)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,439
    edited July 2013
    Hahahaha. Yeah. No way Otis gets away if the Zombies were faster. Meaning, had he not been shot.
  • legogregorslegogregors Member Posts: 402
    I remember it as Shane messed up his leg jumping, Otis was helping him walk and then Shane's survival instinct kicked in. He shot Otis to save himself, I can't remember how everyone suspected him almost immediately.
    Pitfall69
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    That was one of the cool things about that show. Was Shane indeed a jerk, or did he make a hard decision to sacrifice one under the assumption that if he didn't, both would die?

    And more importantly, would the DS shoot the FB if placed in a similar situation?
    RonyarjasorCircleKLegoPodcasterYellowcastle
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    edited July 2013
    tensor said:

    ....

    And more importantly, would the DS shoot the FB if placed in a similar situation?

    DS already survived the Zombies, MMV, EN, IF, Toy Shop, etc If the rumor is true, it will survive FB as well.. No need to do anything, DS is a survivor ... :(
  • pvancil27pvancil27 Member Posts: 588
    That would make the DS Rick, and if the DS is rick, would that make EV Carl?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    pvancil27 said:

    That would make the DS Rick, and if the DS is rick, would that make EV Carl?

    The DS is clearly Rick. It was a very effective leader, but now it's time to let someone else take over.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,064

    tensor said:

    ....

    And more importantly, would the DS shoot the FB if placed in a similar situation?

    DS already survived the Zombies, MMV, EN, IF, Toy Shop, etc If the rumor is true, it will survive FB as well.. No need to do anything, DS is a survivor ... :(
    So the DS is the LEGO version of the cockroach?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,064
    So, according to LEGO.com's 'retiring soon' tag. 6865 Capt America set is sold out online, and the #9476 Orc Forge is temporarily out of stock (I'm guessing one reason for this is resellers buying large quantities for when it is gone) and #5891 Apple tree house is call to check for availability
  • legofanfromleedslegofanfromleeds legoland...England Member Posts: 388
    With the news of the new star wars film / films in the pipeline what's everybodys opion on when to stock up for re selling ... Anything goes or wait to see what comes of the movie.. ?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    2015 is too far off to make any calls related to the new movies in my opinion.
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    edited July 2013
    Today, at Target, I found 2 sets on sale; #70705 (GS Bug Obliterator) and #79104 (TMNT Shellraiser) for $45 and $33 respectively. A year ago I would have bought all of them without hesitation. Today, with a large stock of sets that are not moving and a noticable decline in the sale of individual sets, I didn't pull the trigger.

    I like the GS series but I dont see it as a big winner after retirement, much like Power Miners and Mars Mission. Slow growth over time. TMNT has possbilities as it is a long term franchise and my son says that there is a new film in the works for next year.

    Using the LFT formula (cost x 2.5), any body see these sets hitting $112.50 and $82.50 in a reasonable amount of time?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    edited July 2013
    ^ No, which is why I don't have any of them. :)

    The TMNT has the best prospects, GS will be forgotten just like AC and SPIII were.

    GS actually does have some nice sets, but that doesn't always translate into profits post retirement.

    2-3 years post retirement, TMNT should be doing 1.5-2x retail price, which is nice if you get them on clearance, but TMNT might well be out 2 years, in which case it is way, way too early to buy any.

    Look how long some Spongebob sets have been out. :)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    It's funny how the space stuff just never quite makes it in the aftermarket. Yet city and castle, the other part of Lego's classic "big 3" lines, can have some winners.

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