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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    edited June 2013
    I am expecting TLR movie to be a total flop and the theme to have the same fate as Prince Of Persia. The train is the best set of a dog of a theme and I will buy one for my collection but HE is what I will be buying multiples of (for me it is like comparing Western Train Chase to Maersk Train).
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,789
    I think as much as kids do not know TLR like others have said the sets appear very well done, It would have been a bit nicer if the train cars were a bit better detailed, but again the engine is great and the other sets can easily be used for Western scenery, so it should sell well, but ultimately I think it will still go the way of PoTC and have many sets discounted to get rid of them.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ That is a really good point, and worth remembering.

    I think the stage coach from TLR will do ok as well, it is nice on its own.

    I don't think the line or movie is PoP bad, but it sure isn't going to be LOTR either.

    I'm thinking more like PQ. Slow, but picks up a year or two post retirement. Atlantis it is not, which remains a dog 18 months post EOL.

    I see people talk about how good Indy sets were, but I look at the current prices and given how long it has been since EOL, I'm not impressed. They have gone up, to be sure, but not nearly as much as would be implied from their positive comments.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    I still think TMNT will do very little post retirement.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Youve got to remember HE is also half of what should be a full train, you have to buy 2 of them to get that full sized train.

    Does this mean supply will diminish twice as quickly in the EOL market with everyone buying two of them? :P
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ The same is true about Maersk Train, it also is half a train and to look "right", you needed two of them as well.

    Sadly, I didn't build mine that I had set aside, and now they are worth enough that I doubt I'll ever build them. :( Two of them, for $100 each, was easy enough to live with, even after the cost of putting power functions into them.

    At $200 each? Plus PF? It becomes a $500 train... :) Ouch! :)
  • graphitegraphite Member Posts: 3,275
    ^ its only $42 to PF a train if you are using the AAA battery box.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Yes, if you're doing one.

    I would do a pair of them, back to back, and PF both of them using rechargeable battery boxes.

    Actually, thinking about it, that is closer to $600 these days. :)
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    LegoFanTexas said:

    I think the stage coach from TLR will do ok as well, it is nice on its own.

    Yup, I think $ for $ it will be the best TLR set post retirement. But, I doubt I'll buy many of either the train or stagecoach for resell, unless I get them at a great discount. I simply think there are better sets to bet on.

  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited June 2013
    Pitfall69 said:

    Placed next to The Emerald Night, the Constitution looks silly.

    Valid point. Course, the EN is the best looking LEGO train set bar none IMHO. Not sure yours is an apples to apples comparison. I think it's best to compare the Const to the TS and HP trains. I think it's the best of those 3 and the only 1 of the 3 I care to own.

  • pvancil27pvancil27 Member Posts: 588
    LegoFanTexas said:

    TLR train has another benefit, it costs less and comes with track... :)

    It isn't as nice as EN, but costs a lot less at this point. I think it will do well.

    HE? Orange... bleah... not my choice, if it had been dark blue and actually labeled TGV, I would have been more interested. :)

    Orange is exactly why I want it. Why? Because I had the awesome Micro-Machines orange TVR train as a kid.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    LegoFanTexas said:

    .

    I see people talk about how good Indy sets were, but I look at the current prices and given how long it has been since EOL, I'm not impressed. They have gone up, to be sure, but not nearly as much as would be implied from their positive comments.

    The Indy sets peaked a year or so ago. I still think they will continue to rise if slowly just because it is Indiana Jones. My kids haven't sat through a single film but they know the character by heart. He is that iconic. Comparing it to the Lone Ranger is a bit silly. The Lone Ranger was iconic fifty years ago. He really isn't all that interesting of a character.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Trying to decide whether to dump my 4842's.. Not sure if they'll go much higher.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    I will be selling my 4842s for $300 this xmas. I have no doubt they will hit $500 in time like previous castles (and 4842 is the best of them all) but in 2 years I can turn that $300 into alot more than $500 with other sets.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    The Constitution train looks a bit simplistic in design to appeal to adults. Also what is up with that stupid machine gun? I'm sure its in the movie but it drops the set a notch in my opinion.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    edited June 2013
    LegoFanTexas said:

    ^ The same is true about Maersk Train, it also is half a train and to look "right", you needed two of them as well.

    Sadly, I didn't build mine that I had set aside, and now they are worth enough that I doubt I'll ever build them. :( Two of them, for $100 each, was easy enough to live with, even after the cost of putting power functions into them.

    At $200 each? Plus PF? It becomes a $500 train... :) Ouch! :)

    Hmmm, i always thought diesel trains only have the one locomotive at the front
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Legofanscott said:

    Hmmm, i always thought diesel trains only have the one locomotive at the front

    Nope, never... or almost never... :)

    It is partly a power issue, they can multiply power by just adding locos to the train, but it is also a backup issue, if one has a problem, the train doesn't block the tracks.

    If you look at the attached picture, there are 5 locomotive engines pulling that train.

    Any time you see just one engine pulling cars, it usually is on a short line, or a privately owned line, or just moving cars around the yard.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ BTW, in trains like that, the engines are linked together and there is only 1 driver in the front cab, he controls all 5 locomotives with a single set of controls and the others are slaved to it.

    Trains are amazingly energy efficient for moving cargo, rivaled only by ships at sea. It is a shame that so much stuff in the USA moves via road truck, which is many times more expensive than trains.

    Trains have gotten even more efficient in the past 10 years, the distance a train can move a ton of cargo on a gallon of diesel fuel has doubled in that time.

    CSX in the United States hit 1 ton of cargo moved 468 miles on 1 gallon of diesel fuel. That is pretty darn cool if you ask me. :)

    Of course, they moved a quarter of a trillion ton-miles burning half a billion gallons of fuel. That is a lot of stuff! :)
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    Legofanscott said:


    Hmmm, i always thought diesel trains only have the one locomotive at the front

    Unfortunately, the design of the Maersk (without alterations) doesn't allow running more than one at a time. Too much friction, unless you PF both of them of course.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ Of course you'd need to PF both of them... :) Both engines need power after all! :)
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    Yeah, it's too bad Lego doesn't provide for proper engine lash-up, because it's way too easy to have one engine running a different speed no matter how careful you are.

    I think it's about time for a Santa Fe redux.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    LEGO doesn't promote this as a serious model train, but they should for the prices being charged...

    Pair of HE - $260
    PF for 2x HE - $223

    Total price - $483

    That is nearly $500 for a train. For that much money, it should have power linkages to connect the two, it should also be RF for that much money, rather than IR.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    You don't need two HE. One is perfectly fine, I think two would be far too long to be honest. I could see adding to the Maersk because it is a freight train, that is a little different.

    I don't know where you are getting Power Functions for $223. You only need the IR receiver ($15), battery box ($13) and the motor ($13). That's $41 to power one train. Anyone that already has a powered train or a set with power functions will have a remote.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    2x - 8878 - Rechargeable Battery Box
    1x - 8887 - 10V Transformer
    2x - 8884 - IR Receiver
    1x - 8879 - IR Speed Controller
    2x - 88002 - Train Motor
    2x - 8870 - Lights

    Total cost of all that is $223.

    Now, can you do the AA battery thing? Sure... But those cost money and don't last all that long, and are a pain to change. The rechargeable pays for itself over time in batteries.

    True, if you already have trains, you have some of that. I have several of the 10V transformers, I don't have to buy more. I have enough IR Speed Controllers as well.

    So my list would be:

    2x - 8878 - Rechargeable Battery Box
    2x - 8884 - IR Receiver
    2x - 88002 - Train Motor
    2x - 8870 - Lights

    That is still $172

    Plus the $260 for the pair of trains.

    Do you *need* a pair of trains? No, but then if you don't have a pair, then "pairing" them isn't required either.

    Except... it shows a pair of them right on the back of the box. (see attached picture)

    That is what this train is really supposed to look like, they market it as such right on the box, so pairing it makes sense.

    Doing a power version of what is on the back of the box, to someone who doesn't have prior trains, is nearly $500. For that much money, it should be done better.

    In my opinion. :)
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    and FWIW, I'm really into the lego trains and the HE may not do as well as the Maersk, but it is a really great set, even better than the Maersk IMO. I think it will do great but doubt it will go away before at least another year is up. The constitutional train will do horrible unless the movie does well which it has a chance too.

    What I think a lot of people missed with the Maersk Train was the Maersk company's international recognition.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    edited June 2013
    I always opt for regular batteries vs rechargeable. I used to go the other route under the belief I was saving money in the long run, but I now believe that is more costly. Rechargeable batteries don't last forever either, I think they are usually less efficient to be honest. Most lose their ability to charge overtime. You could save $35 instantly by opting for the regular battery box and $60 if you need a charger. That buys a lot of batteries. I pick up packs at Home Depot for $10 a package that usually hold something like 18 batteries, enough to power 3 trains for a great deal of time (as long as you don't forget to switch them off).
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    edited June 2013
    Dougout said:

    I always opt for regular batteries vs rechargeable. I used to go the other route under the belief I was saving money in the long run, but I now believe that is more costly. Rechargeable batteries don't last forever either, I think they are usually less efficient to be honest. Most lose their ability to charge overtime. You could save $35 instantly by opting for the regular battery box and $60 if you need a charger. That buys a lot of batteries. I pick up packs at Home Depot for $10 a package that usually hold something like 18 batteries, enough to power 3 trains for a great deal of time (as long as you don't forget to switch them off).

    I used to think that way myself, until I got one of the rechargeables as part of a bulk buy. The pack is $50 ($33 if you can time it with a TRU B2G1). What LFT mentioned is true. They last longer on a charge and you don't have to remove the pack from the train to change the batteries. Particularly on the Maersk and HE this is an enormous benefit. All this translates to Technic kits as well, especially on a battery hog like the Motorized Excavator (who we kidding, all the Technic flagships are battery hogs).

    I honestly will never, ever use the AA packs again, ever.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    It is true that rechargeables do wear out over time, however in 2 years ours are still going strong.

    Another issue to consider is the environment. Rechargeables aren't "clean", but they can be much cleaner than throwing away 200 sets of AA batteries.

    I of course didn't pay $50 for mine either, as @tensor points out, BOGO at TRU is a great way to get them, that is how I got 2 of mine. [email protected] also discounts them if you buy in bulk. About a year ago I bought a bunch of train supplies in bulk from [email protected] (10 of this and 20 of that), kept what I wanted and sold the rest for a profit on eBay. Time it with polybag promos (I think I did mine during the TC-14 promo last year) and they become very cheap indeed. :)
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Member Posts: 1,659
    Went to a B&N yesterday, looks like their LEGO section in stuck a few years back... many AC, Atlantis, PQ, old Kingdoms and on the next self there was some PotC and retired SW (like #7964).
    Felt like B&N was in the re-seller business :)
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,987
    cloaked7 said:

    "Before TLR movie was announced I bet very few younger people today (<30) would know offhand who Tonto was."

    Yup. I spoke to one of the clerks at the LEGO store about that and he said no kids know who the Lone Ranger is. The see the set and then ask "Who is that masked man?" :-)</p>

    It is only one data point, but my 6 year old finally received TLR mine he has desperately been wanting for months. When he was done with bag one and moving onto bag 2, I noticed he had a large number of pieces leftover. When I looked at them, I discovered it was all the minifigs! He had not bothered to put them together. Why? Because he told me he wasn't interested in them.

    My kids always, always put together the minifigs first. This was a case where my kiddo went for the mine set solely based on the fun factor for him. He cared nothing about the minifigs, had no idea who they were, nor was he sure who were the good/bad guys until I said the guy in the white hate was a good guy, and my son confirmed by looking at the box.

    Interesting because the set sold itself to my son based on the merits of the set. Interesting that the license has zero impact on my son's want of the set.
    I do suspect the line will have some uptick once the movie is out.

  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks Member Posts: 1,367
    It's probably the same reason the Chima stuff has not been flying off the shelves...there's nothing to really "sell" the set to kids, other than the product itself.

    On another note...I picked up a Haunted House today from a LEGO store and it was the last one they had. The manager said he was not expecting to get any more. What Monster Fighters they had left was also on a table in the center of the store.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Ok, sorta off topic, but since we've already talked about video games here...

    The early morning Lightning deal on Amazon is 007: Legends for Wii U.

    Normally $47, they marked it all the way down to $15. For that price, sure, I'll try it.

    13% taken as I type this, if anyone has a Wii U and wants a game on the cheap, there you go.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    ^You didn't notice, but all that video game talk got deleted.

    Or... maybe it never happened at all. <_< >_> <_<
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Maybe it should have been moved to another thread. There are ties to Lego, Minecraft and various Lego Video games.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk Member Posts: 633
    edited June 2013
    y2josh said:

    ^You didn't notice, but all that video game talk got deleted.

    Just the console wars stuffs.. I saw the other things
    y2josh said:


    Or... maybe it never happened at all. <_< >_> <_<</p>

    We were in a Twilight Zone and you never realized it

  • SuperTrampSuperTramp Member Posts: 1,021
    Im a new collector of Lego, particularly love the modulars, what is the HH set that was mentioned a few pages back?
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk Member Posts: 633
    SuperTramp said:

    Im a new collector of Lego, particularly love the modulars, what is the HH set that was mentioned a few pages back?

    HH = #10228 Haunted House

    and welcome to the forum
  • 09090900909090 Member Posts: 47
    brickset.com/detail/?Set=10228-1 It's Haunted House from Monsters Fighters theme. It should be still available for some time after discontinuation of the theme. AFAIK MF will be discontinued this summer.
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp Member Posts: 1,021
    Cheers for that.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    y2josh said:

    ^You didn't notice, but all that video game talk got deleted.

    Or... maybe it never happened at all. <_< >_> <_<</p>

    That is sad...

    If anything, it should have been given its own thread. The admins have never responded in any form, public or private, to suggestions for an off-topic section here, a "lounge" so to speak, so the regulars can chat about something other than LEGO from time to time.

    Fine, that is their choice, but this isn't the first time that a lot of conversation has been simply deleted. It does make me less interested in being a part of the community.

    If I post less, this will be one of the primary reasons why.

    But it is their forum to run any way they like. :) Go back to debating FB and DS retirement, that was clearly exciting...
    thorniecardgenius
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk Member Posts: 633
    edited June 2013
    ^ You should have created a new topic titled "Should TLG create encasing units for PS4 and Xbox One made entirely of LEGO". Then you could talk about the comparisons between the CPUs, RAMs, cooling units, etc on both consoles; why or why not an encasing unit made of bricks was a good idea.

    How is that for an out of the box solution to a problem ?
    cloaked7
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    A PS4 made outta LEGO. Brilliant! :-)
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Member Posts: 1,659
    @cloaked7 , there is one below in the forums
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    edited June 2013
    Not quite a PS4 (but with the ability to run MAME I will argue it has much better games than the PS4 ever will):

    http://geekdad.hotwired.com/photo/lego-raspberry-pi-case

    More pics here:

    https://plus.google.com/u/0/photos/100668741879927315727/albums/5764085254468685281
    y2josh
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    There are many factors that determine how a Lego set will perform post retirement. There's no wonder why this particular thread goes off topic so often. One can't make a statement and then not have us discuss why that statement was made. It is human nature.

    Anyway, I suppose we should all go back to discussing DS and FB because clearly, we they haven't been discussed enough.
    piratemania7
  • piratemania7piratemania7 Member Posts: 2,146
    Pitfall69 said:

    There are many factors that determine how a Lego set will perform post retirement. There's no wonder why this particular thread goes off topic so often. One can't make a statement and then not have us discuss why that statement was made. It is human nature.

    Anyway, I suppose we should all go back to discussing DS and FB because clearly, we they haven't been discussed enough.

    LOL, post retirement what will FB sell for? Any betters?
  • jasorjasor Member Posts: 839
    ^trick question. It never does... MUWAHAHAHAHA

    I agree. If you dont like the Off topic in this particular thread, then I dont understand why it can be skimmed/scanned on.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited June 2013
    Is discussion of off topic topics off topic? I mean is it on topic to discuss a topic to determine if it's off topic or on topic? What's the litmus test for off topic? Maybe the on/off topic litmus test should be the next topic. That is if that discussion is on topic.
    jasorPitfall69
  • TrenthTrenth Member Posts: 162
    Where and when will the 10175 VAT (new) price level out? Any ideas?
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    ^^Is that question kinda like "is your reality really my reality" or "is your red the same as the red that I see"?
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