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In terms of resale, I'd say about half the sets will do well (versus their RRP), but I think the hearse and train are looking to be the underperformers at this point. Or, at least the slowest risers. The train, which is a set I really like, is especially concerning since, even at 30% off, it hung around physical stores for way too long.
The real addition are the adult-oriented models - the Modulars, architectural sets, etc. -- and the "action figure" type sets like Bionicle, Ninjago, Chima.
As a consumer, I don't find it overwhelming. I find it refreshing. I can still go back to classic city and castle type sets, but also get the really complex and detailed buildings as well. I know I can ignore the Ninjago type stuff and when they come out with specialty lines I can decide to take them (pirates) or leave them (monsters).
The licensed sets do add to the choices (and perhaps steal some cash away from city sets or discourage me from trying out non-licensed specialties like the Monsters). But taken as a whole, my love of Star Wars and LOTR has probably been far more likely to cause me to spend far MORE money than less on LEGO, because I just "have to have" the latest Battle at the Black Gate or whatever, and I'm more willing to pay a little bit more because it is licensed. For something like the Museum break-in, I'll wait for the sale.
To comment on your post, specifically, I think the reselling market has and continues to tighten up. Lots of factors lead me to that reasoning, the biggest of which is simply the stockpile and quantity of retired sets posted online. The backlog includes TRU and other retailers now. Lego's popularity is growing, but there are simply too many options now.
So the # of retired set "hits" will lessen, the # of "misses" will increase. Over time, that will slowly weed out some resellers I suppose.
2nd Prediction: While most Speedorz will be duds and hang around and hang around at clearance prices, some of the rarer characters like Foxes and Skunks that can't be obtained easily in sets will perform well.
#70014 The Croc Swamp Hideout
The Lion Chi Temple is pretty cool. Great color palette and creative. The Castle designers need to think more outside of the box like this.
My main concern right now is, should I pick them up at the ~10% off that Amazon is offering them at right now, or do we think that this movie will bomb so miserably that we'll see PoP-style fire sales somewhere down the line?
My sticking point here is, even if the movie tanks, the sets are still fantastic... which really couldn't be said of most of the PoP sets.
I'll get the train later. I like trains.
I think both the train and stagecoach will do well later, regardless of how the movie does. I would be reselling the sets long after the movie release. Sure, if they make a TLR 2 and 3 that helps. But, nice sets do well regardless. Who doesn't want a steam locomotive? :-)
I would not have thought so before, however we do have five modular buildings out at once now, and a year ago no one expected that.
$250 is much easier to accept for many parents than $400 and that will help. On discount on Amazon, I expect we'll see it @ $200 from time to time.
At that price, it will sell very well.
I still don't know if and when I will pick up the Tower Bridge. What do you guys think it will do after EOL? I know it is an iconic landmark/structure, but it may not appeal to everyone. Same with the Sydney Opera House.
Bear in mind, though... the set is currently still in production, so even if they stopped the run tomorrow, we'd still be a ways off from the supply actually being exhausted... unless this set is considerably more popular than I'm lead to believe.
Since those have done so well, Tower Bridge is probably being stocked by quite a few people in reasonable qty. I had more of them but I've traded away about half of the stock now, because I do believe it will be around for another 18 months, so keeping a bunch right now seems pointless.
If anyone wants 10 Tower Bridges, let me know. :)
Statue of Liberty
Sydney Opera House
Also, do you guys think that Ewok Village will finally be the force that drives Battle for Endor higher?
Still, it's an awesome model and I've no doubt it'll do well, just not as well as the previous sets. I've only got my own copy but I'll pick up a few more at the end of the year.
Course, it can become an emotional decision more than a logical one. If the set is awesome then price comes into play a bit less.
SOH has just under 3,000 parts and is just over $300. It should be the other way around, just over 3,000 parts and just under $300 ($299).
Taj Mahal was $299 with nearly 6,000 parts, abit granted they were almost all very small.
Still, while it is true that part count isn't everything, it does take "time" to put each part together, it should take about twice as long to build a Taj Mahal as it does SOH, given the double part count. If it only takes 5-10 hours to build SOH for $320, is that a "value" to the average consumer?
Note: No one reading this on Brickset is an "average consumer", so take us all out of that question.
The comment about PS4 is a good one. One of the reasons video games sell so well is the endless hours of entertainment for the dollars spent. My son has 100+ hours into LEGO Star Wars on his PS3, that game was $20, do the math. :)