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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^I have every modular sealed in box right now. I am a collector first and foremost. I love to build, but I MOC most of the time. I have been ruined because I was a sports card collector my whole childhood and then went into action figures. I have always been into Lego.

    One of the first things I bought when I came out of my Dark Ages was a train. Trains will always be popular and a great investment.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ You haven't built them? You're crazy! :) The modulars are fun, detailed, and interesting... They are really the cream of the crop for AFOLs, in my humble opinion.

    Not withstanding sets like VW Van which also ranks right up there and sets like it of course.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited June 2013
    I have built Green Grocer, Pet Shop and Fire Brigade.

    From what I gather, I have built the best ones.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    :) Ahh, then you know... :)

    I just finished Town Hall a week ago... have to say, wasn't all that impressed... rather... boring build... :(

    Fire Brigade remains my favorite, followed by Pet Shop. GE was boring, GG was interesting, but its age and early design shows. CC was terrible, but don't tell anyone I said so. :)

    Next on the list... PC! :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I loved the Fire Brigade, my favorite. Pet Shop then Green Grocer.
  • dsdg88dsdg88 Member Posts: 133
    ^ Where would you put the HH on that list? Granted it is not strictly a modular, but is it close enough to fit in the rankings?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited June 2013
    HH is not a modular building regardless of its size in relation to the other modulars.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Well, he/she asked you, not me... but I'll answer...

    HH is one of the better sets in that line, between FB and PS, it is in the top 3 to be sure...

    It had so many "oh wow" details in it, and it really is nice because it opens sideways making it easier to play with as a doll house... for my daughter... of course... :)
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    HH, is one of the best Lego sets that have come along in awhile, but again, it isn't a modular building.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    :) Can you imagine what would happen to its value if it retired this summer along with the rest of MF? :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited June 2013
    Don't say that. I only have 1 sealed...lol.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I turned one HH into this:
    prevere
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    I don't have any... :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    How long to hit $1,000 if it retired after 9 months without warning?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Based on The Zombies, I would say it would be at least 5x in 9 months.
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Member Posts: 1,659
    There is 50 extra VIP points on HH right now ... (also on #3315)
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    I have two HH. It's a set that if it goes now, it should perform astoundingly, but also one where holding two of them indefinitely isn't going to break me. I suppose it's a toss-up on whether or not it goes along with the rest of MF, but I'm leaning more towards it hanging around, if only as a 'seasonal' set.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    Pitfall69 said:

    Based on The Zombies, I would say it would be at least 5x in 9 months.

    I'll take the under.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    rocao said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    Based on The Zombies, I would say it would be at least 5x in 9 months.

    I'll take the under.
    I'll take the over... I'll put $20 on that. :)

    ---------

    Side note, if HH really does EOL by the end of this month, I think it is perfectly reasonable that it hits $900 on eBay next year. That would be an insanely short life for that set, I doubt very many have been stocked at this point. I have none, case in point. :)
  • DevastatorDevastator Member Posts: 66
    I just took a good look at HH for the first time at the Lego store in San Jose today, and it is absolutely gorgeous. Not only as it is, but it seems ripe for customization. Based on speculation, I doubt it will stick around long enough for me to pick up, and I'm regretting not getting it already...
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    Lots of interesting discussion going on, I can't help but laugh (maybe I should cry) but some of the prices that a lot of the more recent EOL sets are going for currently in the US is still (just) below Australian RRP i.e. IS & Diagon Alley.

    Speaking of DA Target here has it back in stock online, but its $279 AUD. Also all the DINO series is still available at a couple of my local Big W's, if only our RRP was lower.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited June 2013
    LegoFanTexas said:

    I'll take the over... I'll put $20 on that. :)

    So would the condition for this bet be that it has to retire this summer? And you're saying it will reach $900 in 9 months, right? (what pitfall69 said) Unfortunately for the bet, I don't think it will retire this summer.

    BELTRAD
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,728
    They would be crazy to put the HH out to pasture before this coming Halloween rolls around. Or Halloween 2014 for that matter. Any chance this set got impacted by the glow-in-the-dark sticker change like some of the other sets in the line did? That could be the reason for the stall in production (if there is/was one)
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    edited June 2013
    Bumblepants said:

    They would be crazy to put the HH out to pasture before this coming Halloween rolls around. Or Halloween 2014 for that matter. Any chance this set got impacted by the glow-in-the-dark sticker change like some of the other sets in the line did? That could be the reason for the stall in production (if there is/was one)

    I don't think HH has any Glow in the dark stickers

    I don't care how long that set is out for though, IMHO its still going to be a solid investment.
    Pitfall69
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Absolutely, just like DS :)
    BrickarmorLegoFanTexas
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    Devastator said:

    I just took a good look at HH for the first time at the Lego store in San Jose today, and it is absolutely gorgeous. Not only as it is, but it seems ripe for customization. Based on speculation, I doubt it will stick around long enough for me to pick up, and I'm regretting not getting it already...

    Not just customization, but this thing's value also comes from it being a perfect set to be complimented by all sorts of CMFs, polys and pieces:

    1) CMFs like the Vampire Bat, Witch, Wolfman. Even the perimeter-gothic CMFs work also like Mr. Good & Evil, Fortune Teller, etc. Also, taking the S9 Waiter's tray works better for the butler and his wine bottle also fits the mansion theme.

    2) The Ghost & Clock poly #30201 fits perfectly in the house in a couple places as if it were designed for it.

    3) Populating pumpkin heads as Jack o Lanterns, adding spiders, rats, scorpions, frogs, owls, bats, ravens, etc.

    4) Along with the heart in a glass jar (and bone and skull that come with the set) you can also put a few other rare pieces in other glass jars like the shrunken head from #4866 and my personal favorite, the rare brain from #1382.
  • DraxDrax Member Posts: 11
    tensor said:


    Not just customization, but this thing's value also comes from it being a perfect set to be complimented by all sorts of CMFs, polys and pieces:

    1) CMFs like the Vampire Bat, Witch, Wolfman. Even the perimeter-gothic CMFs work also like Mr. Good & Evil, Fortune Teller, etc. Also, taking the S9 Waiter's tray works better for the butler and his wine bottle also fits the mansion theme.

    You are so right on the minifigs. When I set this up with my kids last Halloween, we took the Thespian minifig from Series 8:
    http://lego.wikia.com/wiki/The_Thespian

    Switch out the skull in his hand with his actual head, and then put the actual head in his hand, and it was perfect for the HH!

    We also took the Diver minifig from series 8, replaced the head with a skull, and you have a monster from one of the Scooby Doo cartoons to add to HH as well.
    TheLoneTensorDougout
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    Drax said:

    We also took the Diver minifig from series 8, replaced the head with a skull, and you have a monster from one of the Scooby Doo cartoons to add to HH as well.

    Brilliant!
    Pitfall69
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    rocao said:

    LegoFanTexas said:

    I'll take the over... I'll put $20 on that. :)

    So would the condition for this bet be that it has to retire this summer? And you're saying it will reach $900 in 9 months, right? (what pitfall69 said) Unfortunately for the bet, I don't think it will retire this summer.
    :)

    I don't think it will either... but if it does...

    * HH must retire by end of June 2013
    * By end of March 2014, lowest new-sealed undamaged box copy must be selling on eBay for no less than $899 including shipping.

    If it is less than that, I'll owe you $20, if over, you owe me $20...

    Or maybe just a beer and a laugh. :)
    Pitfall69
  • CircleKCircleK Member Posts: 1,055
    I doubt HH is going anywhere soon. It was still in the summer catalog for one. Despite the higher cost, my prediction is that it will be another MMV or Kingdoms Joust:

    Great play or display sets
    Universal appeal
    Available for freaking ever
    Steady rise after retirement, but will be held back initially due to it's extended stay on the shelf.
  • cardgeniuscardgenius Member Posts: 153
    edited June 2013
    I know it was just a worker but I went to the Park Meadows Lego Store here in Denver last night and they had all of their Monster Fighter sets on a display stand on the floor, even had the Haunted House on display. Asked what was up and they said they have no shelf space for it and once they sell it all they won't be getting anymore. But did say the sets will stick around online for a while. Said it was the same thing that happened to the first Lord of the Rings sets. I wonder if this is at all Lego Stores or just this one.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    CircleK said:

    I doubt HH is going anywhere soon. It was still in the summer catalog for one. Despite the higher cost, my prediction is that it will be another MMV or Kingdoms Joust:

    Great play or display sets
    Universal appeal
    Available for freaking ever
    Steady rise after retirement, but will be held back initially due to it's extended stay on the shelf.

    The Joust doesn't qualify for that distinction yet, as it's only been out for a year and a half. The DS and FB for sure fit this category though.
    cardgenius said:

    I know it was just a worker but I went to the Park Meadows Lego Store here in Denver last night and they had all of their Monster Fighter sets on a display stand on the floor, even had the Haunted House on display. Asked what was up and they said they have no shelf space for it and once they sell it all they won't be getting anymore. But did say the sets will stick around online for a while. Said it was the same thing that happened to the first Lord of the Rings sets. I wonder if this is at all Lego Stores or just this one.

    We have thoroughly determined that no Lego store employee, manager or otherwise, knows anything reliable about the discontinuation about any sets, right?
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    TLG would be bonkers to stop producing HH right now. What goes on the floor display and shelf display is most likely left up to the manager to decide. In fact, some stores have more space than others, so they can even fit more of the line up. I've heard my local store complain about shelf space long before the HH came out, they had to trade Technic space so they could fit all the modulars. I imagine it's an ongoing struggle and one store's struggle isn't indicative of what is to EOL.

    However, like some have suggested, HH is such a good set it really isn't a bad decision to grab at least a couple.


    .........Speaking of Joust though, will that set last a lot longer so people can pair it with the new castle theme? It can't last as long as MMV, I don't think it has anywhere close to the amount of appeal that set had.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,836
    Pitfall69 said:

    I turned one HH into this:

    Do you call it the Pink Nightmare?
    CircleK said:

    I doubt HH is going anywhere soon. It was still in the summer catalog for one. Despite the higher cost, my prediction is that it will be another MMV or Kingdoms Joust:

    Great play or display sets
    Universal appeal
    Available for freaking ever
    Steady rise after retirement, but will be held back initially due to it's extended stay on the shelf.

    I would say that something being or not being in the catalog really makes no difference. I have seen sets missing from a catalog but still well in production (FB) and I have seen sets appear in the catalog and then they are gone 30 days later.

    But I think it is safe to say that HH will be a sought after set after it is gone.
  • KanohiKanohi Member Posts: 41
    @cardgenius

    It's just the Park Meadows store I believe.

    I was there in mid-March and the Lord of the Rings stuff was already gone from the shelf. When I inquired, I was told that that particular store just did not have the shelf space to carry everything, though the employee wasn't sure how (or by whom) it was determined what not to carry. I would guess that in these two particular examples that LotR = slow seller and MF = soon to be discontinued.

    That said, I would be very surprised if they didn't find the room for a set like the Haunted House.

    --Gary
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    edited June 2013
    ^ store managers have almost zero desecration on shelf layout. Heck, they don't even have the ability to order inventory outside of PAB

    Shelf layouts and setup is completely dictated by corporate

    My guess is MF stock will not be replenished and the items will end of life throughught the year, just like other one off themes. HH may disappear from store shelves thus summer and not be restocked but it will continue to be available online. Additionally, I fully expect stores to be restocked and the item to be prominently displayed in September and October. If LEGO doesn't do that, it would be inexplicably stupid
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Here in Dallas we have two LEGO stores. One is twice the size of the other and it shows.

    The Northpark store simply does not have the room to carry everything, they are limited by space being a very small store. The Stonebriar store on the other hand is one of the larger stores and generally carries everything LEGO currently stocks, with a few small exceptions.

    So taking what a smaller store is doing doesn't mean a lot. If the larger store told me they weren't stocking a set anymore, that would mean a little more, but keep in mind that all stores have trouble stocking in demand items. It is almost impossible to find Mindstorms on my local store's shelf. They get it in, it sells out, they get it in, it sells out, over and over. Amazing how well that thing sells.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-6021886-Minecraft-21102/dp/B007PVHMCG/

    18 left in stock, if anyone wants one at RRP.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    dougts said:

    ^ store managers have almost zero desecration on shelf layout.

    Not that I suppose it really matters, but desecration and discretion are two VERY different things. ;)
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    Dougout said:

    .........Speaking of Joust though, will that set last a lot longer so people can pair it with the new castle theme? It can't last as long as MMV, I don't think it has anywhere close to the amount of appeal that set had.

    The joust matches perfectly with the castle, unfortunately it's the old castle #7946 that it does. The new castle can work with it, but it's not nearly as natural of a mesh, especially with the ugly blue cartoonyness of #70404.
  • black_towrblack_towr Member Posts: 165
    I was just at the Lego store in Mall of America and was mesmerized by the all the new LOTR sets. I should have bought the pirate ship but I will hold out for the time being.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,836
    edited June 2013
    I would say hold out for sales of the Pirate ship.
    It will most likely be put on sale at some point and Amazon has them as well.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    y2josh said:

    dougts said:

    ^ store managers have almost zero desecration on shelf layout.

    Not that I suppose it really matters, but desecration and discretion are two VERY different things. ;)
    You haven't seen the toy aisle at my local Walmart ;)

    thenos
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    y2josh said:

    dougts said:

    ^ store managers have almost zero desecration on shelf layout.

    Not that I suppose it really matters, but desecration and discretion are two VERY different things. ;)
    iPhone autocorrect ..

    :-)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Hahahaha
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    So when is HH supposed to EOL?
  • hendrikdejagerhendrikdejager Member Posts: 27
    Hey guys i managed to get hold on 10 new in seal Minifig Series 10 (60) boxes.
    Does anyone know if i can weight a box in order to check for mister gold? Or do i have to open them up?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    edited June 2013
    ^I can't imagine you would be able to weigh as it's not metal so the differential would be so miniscule. Looks like you're going to have to bite the bullet and plow through 600 packs.

    Though one does wonder, will the boxes be better left sealed and possibly more valuable a couple years down the road because they could possibly still have a Mr. Gold in it.
  • hendrikdejagerhendrikdejager Member Posts: 27
    tensor said:

    ^I can't imagine you would be able to weigh as it's not metal so the differential would be so miniscule. Looks like you're going to have to bite the bullet and plow through 600 packs.

    Though one does wonder, will the boxes be better left sealed and possibly more valuable a couple years down the road because they could possibly still have a Mr. Gold in it.

    Thank you for your responce. I was actually planning on able to weight the box for mister gold in order to keep the negative ones closed and sell them. But i guess this is not possible.

    If they are worth more down the road i don't know, Mister Gold might be currently hyped and one will not pay $200 for a new in seal box of Serie 10.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    hendrikdejager said:

    tensor said:

    ^I can't imagine you would be able to weigh as it's not metal so the differential would be so miniscule. Looks like you're going to have to bite the bullet and plow through 600 packs.

    Though one does wonder, will the boxes be better left sealed and possibly more valuable a couple years down the road because they could possibly still have a Mr. Gold in it.

    Thank you for your responce. I was actually planning on able to weight the box for mister gold in order to keep the negative ones closed and sell them. But i guess this is not possible.

    If they are worth more down the road i don't know, Mister Gold might be currently hyped and one will not pay $200 for a new in seal box of Serie 10.
    Also i wouldn't build your hopes up on one of those boxes definitely having a Mr Gold inside, as there is every possibility that there isnt a single one in any of the 10 boxes you got

    Also opening them is the risk you have got to take if you want to find a Mr Gold, i wish you the best of luck should you decide to search all 10 boxes :)
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