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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,156
    The SSD seems to be quite hard to get hold of at a good price right now. I pushed the button on an SSD at 300 Euros (£254 - a 28% saving on UK RRP) on May 25th with Amazon.fr and it is still on backorder.
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    i bought a #10188 few months ago and finally got time yesterday to open the outside box. In the process, i noticed that there is a sticker in there that says date of manufacture 12/06. makes me wonder whether that was actually made in dec of 2006 or june of 2012 :P. in either case, it looks to me that there are more AFOL, collectors than actual kids playing these expensive legos :) . I don't think there are enough families with over $350 disposable income for a single toy.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Think it was said before here. Many people live above their means. Many buy because the can, not because they should.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,764
    Gavin83 said:

    The same goes for books. E-books seem to be the same price as they are for paperbacks. Crazy. I guess maybe they're building some sort of piracy costs into the price but still, it's not logical to charge the same.

    Why is it not logical to charge the same? An e-book has to be written, developed, edited, and produced just like a physical book. Printing books is expensive, but so is implementing the necessary systems and procedures for producing e-books.
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,272
    ^ Developing a distribution method for e-books may have been initially costly but I hardly doubt that going from print to e-book is very costly or complicated in the digital world we live in. Books are likely already digital before they are proofed/edited/printed and converting one digital format to another has to be low cost. If not then publishers are doing something wrong.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited June 2013

    i bought a #10188 few months ago and finally got time yesterday to open the outside box. In the process, i noticed that there is a sticker in there that says date of manufacture 12/06. makes me wonder whether that was actually made in dec of 2006 or june of 2012 :P. in either case, it looks to me that there are more AFOL, collectors than actual kids playing these expensive legos :) . I don't think there are enough families with over $350 disposable income for a single toy.

    Definitely. I wonder how many kids are allowed to play with Mom & Dad's prestige sets. I'm guessing once a set evolves into a collector's item with true value, it suddenly becomes (in the words of George Bluth) "no touching!"

    I'd bet a shiny penny that anyone who buys the UCS Falcon or the Grand Carousel today is not letting any kid near that thing.
    Bumblepants
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^Depends on the kids of course.

    I have a city layout with maybe 5 modulars on one table, and another table with "regular" Friends and city sets. Even without me or my daughter saying anything, visiting kids honestly won't play near the modulars because they are intimidated by them.

    In the other room, I have a UCS Imperial Shuttle on display, and it's the same response.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,764
    graphite said:

    Books are likely already digital before they are proofed/edited/printed and converting one digital format to another has to be low cost.

    Just because something is digital doesn't mean it can be easily converted. Novels are easy, of course, because they're generally one giant stream of text. Consider something like a textbook, though. There may be images, sidebars, diagrams, tables, or other elements that break the linear flow of text. These things can't be easily converted to an e-book format; there has to be some human intervention to make choices as to what goes where.

    Regardless, a book is a book, whether e-book or print. A publisher is going to consider the cost to produce both as a whole when setting the price of each. Even if the e-book is cheaper to produce, its price has to help support pre-production of both versions as well as production of both versions.
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    Physical books have re-sale value, can be borrowed, and work even after the zombie apocalypse comese...e-books on the other hand.....

    IMHO, zombies beat e-books. That's the story, and I'm sticking to it.

    In related theory..... if someone charged you $5 (or whatever currency you may delve into by residence) for a digital copy of Lego instructions they developed, or charged you the same for a nice printed physical copy....which one would you be more inclined to buy?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    @tensor

    I bought the Grand Carousel for my daughter to celebrate her birth. She is 3.5 years old andshe has played with it a few times. I bought the Haunted House fir my second child to celebrate HER birth. Even though HH will not reach GC heights, I spent a "pretty penny" converting it into a pink Victorian.

    Do I still get a shiny penny?
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    edited June 2013
    ^^ I bought the HH (and a set of CMF classic monster figs) to celebrate my son's birth. It's still in the box waiting for the day we can build together.

    It will always be his to play with, regardless of what it may be worth someday.
    MathBuilder
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,764
    jasor said:

    Physical books have re-sale value, can be borrowed, and work even after the zombie apocalypse comese...e-books on the other hand.....

    Believe me, I agree completely. But since I work in book publishing, I'm simply trying to shed some light on why e-books aren't cheaper than print books.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I don't like digital instructions. I look at computer screens enough, I don't need to be looking at my monitor or the small screen on my iphone when I'm trying to build legos.

    Either way it is all about the demand graph. Cost to converting physical copies to digital should be a one time fee that is paid to only a few people. After that, sales is almost pure profit and the demand for digital copies is what makes them sell. They must have high demand if they are around $20 and the physical ones are around $8. There are even some things that have so much demand it doesn't matter what the price is because people will buy them anyways. Cigarettes are one of those.
    Crownie
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    i hope they release some more sets like #10196. i donot own one but just the image of the box seem grandeour. i will definitely buy one for my daughter :P if they re-release it :)
    prevere said:

    ^Depends on the kids of course.

    I have a city layout with maybe 5 modulars on one table, and another table with "regular" Friends and city sets. Even without me or my daughter saying anything, visiting kids honestly won't play near the modulars because they are intimidated by them.

    In the other room, I have a UCS Imperial Shuttle on display, and it's the same response.

  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,194
    edited June 2013
    tensor said:

    I'd bet a shiny penny that anyone who buys the UCS Falcon or the Grand Carousel today is not letting any kid near that thing.

    I have all 8 modular buildings displayed in the LEGO room, and my kids play with them all the time. When time comes to sell, it's not that hard to find the missing pieces.
    itsnotme
  • pillpodpillpod Member Posts: 273
    I agree that e-books shouldn't be as expensive as they are, but we still need to consider that when buying a book of any kind, we aren't paying for the paper as much as we are paying for the words on the paper.
  • bluedragonbluedragon United StatesMember Posts: 505
    tensor said:

    Definitely. I wonder how many kids are allowed to play with Mom & Dad's prestige sets. I'm guessing once a set evolves into a collector's item with true value, it suddenly becomes (in the words of George Bluth) "no touching!"

    I'd bet a shiny penny that anyone who buys the UCS Falcon or the Grand Carousel today is not letting any kid near that thing.

    I actually just bought a used Grand Carousel with my 2.5 yo in mind. He saw me looking at a video of it in action on the web and was so mesmerized, it was the "excuse I needed" to buy it.

    I will definitely let him play with it when I assemble it- it will give me much more pleasure to watch him than to just look at the set!
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited June 2013
    Pitfall69 said:

    @tensor

    I bought the Grand Carousel for my daughter to celebrate her birth. She is 3.5 years old andshe has played with it a few times. I bought the Haunted House fir my second child to celebrate HER birth. Even though HH will not reach GC heights, I spent a "pretty penny" converting it into a pink Victorian.

    Do I still get a shiny penny?

    You may be the exception to the rule. Though, in fairness, I did say "today," meaning that what you paid 3.5 years ago is much less that someone would drop today. In any event, kudos on a truly grand birthday present.

    tensor said:


    I'd bet a shiny penny that anyone who buys the UCS Falcon or the Grand Carousel today is not letting any kid near that thing.

    I have all 8 modular buildings displayed in the LEGO room, and my kids play with them all the time. When time comes to sell, it's not that hard to find the missing pieces.

    Yeah, same here with all the modulars (except MS, which I can sleep ok missing), though we kinda treat it like a clean room, none of their bricks come in, no bricks leave. Of course, even those rules get broken as they want some of "their guys" to visit the town, which is beyond adorable.

    But again, I didn't spend over $1000 on these things the kids are playing with. Oh wait, crap, I did!
    FollowsCloselyLegoFanTexassidersdd
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    Ah, but what is really the difference? If you only paid $100 for a 2 carat diamond that is worth $20,000, would you let your daughter wear it while playing dress up?
  • The_MackThe_Mack Member Posts: 239
    Well LEGO and Sony are working together.. so that may influence some of your console buying decisions in the future. http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/10880/lego-sony-doing-joint-research#latest
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited June 2013
    Pitfall69 said:

    Ah, but what is really the difference? If you only paid $100 for a 2 carat diamond that is worth $20,000, would you let your daughter wear it while playing dress up?

    It's all perception really, and it also depends on the item we're talking about. If the item is a investment vehicle (like stocks), which exists solely to increase in value and provide a return to the investor, then yeah the certificate I own is only worth what it's currently valued at in the market.

    If, however, it's a bunch of colorful plastic bricks that I bought because they are a well-organized bunch of colorful plastic bricks, then in my view, they tend to be worth what I paid for them, unless there is a driving market for that item that increases its value so much that it causes me to shift my perception of the item.

    I can't tell you where the line would be drawn exactly, but I do know that with the GC example, it's about a 3.5-to-1 ratio. For that, the answer I would say is yes. With your 200-to-1 ratio example, my answer would be no.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    Ah, but what is really the difference? If you only paid $100 for a 2 carat diamond that is worth $20,000, would you let your daughter wear it while playing dress up?

    That depends, can I buy 50 more just like it for $100? :)

    If so, then yes, if not, then of course not.

    That is why I ultimatly started selling off my expensive sets. Once I decided that a whole shelf full of LEGO was "off limits" to my kids, I realized that I had a problem.

    My new rule is that almost any LEGO in the house is to be played with, if it is off limits because it is too expensive, then it is to be sold.

    The few exceptions are Eiffel Tower, UCS ISD, IS, etc. because:

    1. Those really can't be played with, they would fall apart.
    2. They are more house decorations in the front hall of our home, more than they are toys.

    Except for those, everything else is fair game. I even recently took Death Star down and gave it to my son. It looks really sad just sitting on the shelf, not getting played with.

    And frankly, the big sets may go at some point, I did sell UCS Falcon after all, the money was just too good. First person to offer me a thousand bucks for either UCS ISD or Eiffel Tower, and those sets are gone as well. :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    Well, either way, these sets are for my children and when they get old enough, they can do whatever they want with them. I have the boxes and the manuals for both.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    Lucky for me I like to display my Lego models at ny place of business. I had so many there at one time, people thought it was a toy store...lol. I do buy business related Lego for the kids to play with and books to read. Also, Iam putting a suspended 9V train rail all around the perimeter of the store. A lot of work so far.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    Change of topic. 9472 Attack on Weathertop was officially marked retired at [email protected] Any prediciton on how well this set will be received in 2014 ?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    Change of topic. 9472 Attack on Weathertop was officially marked retired at [email protected] Any prediciton on how well this set will be received in 2014 ?

    I'll be shocked if this doesn't go for $100 during Christmas. Will it go to $150? Probably not, but anything is possible.

    It strikes me as a $100 post EOL set, nothing more.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002

    Change of topic. 9472 Attack on Weathertop was officially marked retired at [email protected] Any prediciton on how well this set will be received in 2014 ?

    I'm almost certain the Nazgûl are going to be significant to driving the price of that set post-EOL. In the movies, Weathertop isn't as iconic as Helm's Deep, Minas Tirith or even Amon Hen... and the set isn't fantastic, though it is probably one of the better LotR sets.

    Aragorn obviously isn't doing the set any favors as he's in way too many sets already... same with Frodo (plus, the Hobbit figures don't seem to have very high value to begin with). So, in my opinion, that leaves the Nazgûl alone to drive the value of the set, which I think they can certainly do, so long as there are no Nazgûl on the market.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    I believe Merry is also an exclusive to that set.
    Pitfall69
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    edited June 2013
    He is. I didn't do a great job of highlighting it, but that was the intention of my parenthetical. Just that the Hobbit figures (Frodo and Merry both) probably weren't going to help the value of the set long-term.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,764
    y2josh said:

    So, in my opinion, that leaves the Nazgûl alone to drive the value of the set, which I think they can certainly do, so long as there are no Nazgûl on the market.

    I agree the Nazgûl give the most value to the set in the aftermarket. But I think Merry will help a bit, being part of the Fellowship.
  • mobilelinkagemobilelinkage Member Posts: 49
    If and only if, the 10234 Sydney Opera House is going to release, will the 21012 Sydney Opera House be gone sooner?
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ 10234 will be unlikely to have any effect whatsoever on when 21012 retires. they are completely different sets aimed at completely different audiences.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,524
    I think Weathertop will do well, once stocks run out everywhere else..
    But it has two ring wraiths in it as well (and the set is nice for parts).

    But seeing as TRU has a bunch of well EOL'd sets in stock because of their insane pricing that is holding prices of sets down I think until they run out.
    dragonhawk
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950

    I think Weathertop will do well, once stocks run out everywhere else..
    But it has two ring wraiths in it as well (and the set is nice for parts).

    But seeing as TRU has a bunch of well EOL'd sets in stock because of their insane pricing that is holding prices of sets down I think until they run out.

    Is Weathertop EOL? I notice Walmart and Meijer are holding onto lots of LOTR sets as well.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ It is quite possible that the major retailers are going to be keeping stocks longer, knowing that some sets continue to sell after EOL.

    Will they raise prices like TRU does? Unknown, but if I were Walmart/Amazon, stocking up on EOL LOTR sets seems like a wise decision to me. I wouldn't carry them in the stores (for Walmart), just online.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,524
    tensor said:

    I think Weathertop will do well, once stocks run out everywhere else..
    But it has two ring wraiths in it as well (and the set is nice for parts).

    But seeing as TRU has a bunch of well EOL'd sets in stock because of their insane pricing that is holding prices of sets down I think until they run out.

    Is Weathertop EOL? I notice Walmart and Meijer are holding onto lots of LOTR sets as well.
    LEGO.com no longer has them listed and has not for at least 30 days. LEGO also shows the set as 'retired'
    http://search2.lego.com/?q=weathertop&lang=2057&cc=US

    I think there was just A LOT of them out there, and I believe Amazon no longer has them.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633

    ^ It is quite possible that the major retailers are going to be keeping stocks longer, knowing that some sets continue to sell after EOL.

    Will they raise prices like TRU does? Unknown, but if I were Walmart/Amazon, stocking up on EOL LOTR sets seems like a wise decision to me. I wouldn't carry them in the stores (for Walmart), just online.

    Ugh one more competition to people with limited cash flows. I wonder how much influence this does to the aftermarket values. At the very least, the wide availability of sets after EOL will slow down the rise of their prices.
  • BrixyBrixy United statesMember Posts: 57
    My walmart has 41 weathertop, they had an inventory slip on the shelf with a red sticker. I checked but it's still full price hopefully they will be clearanced soon. I want to get more ringwraiths, two ins' t that intimidating.
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    The LotR stuff was never that popular in my area and has been warming the shelves for months now. I'm just now starting to see them get marked down to make way for new sets. The markdowns haven't been that great though and I could still buy the entire first wave by driving five miles down the road.

    I was actually surprised to see a second wave. I realize my area isn't necessarily indicative of overall theme popularity, but other themes did well here while LotR and the Hobbit have stunk it up. Weathertop is still available at all three of my big box shops currently. My local Kmart has them currently reduced to $50.

  • SupersympaSupersympa SwedenMember Posts: 534
    edited June 2013
    #6858 6858-1: Catwoman Catcycle City Chase is sold out on [email protected], I guess it is the first Super Heroes to get EOL...let's see how it does, but with two unique minifigures to this sets, might do ok i guess?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^Cheap set. Even cheaper on clearances isles ($5) sometimes. Easy to stock up on massive copies. So I think it'll be a very slow riser.

    However, down the road (2 years+), if Catwoman doesn't get reproduced for a third time. It could hit $25.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    And note, that set is just showing an out of stock notification, not "retired product". That's the telltale. Followed by the official retirement page with the Adventurer fig and his giant magnifying glass.

    Personally, I think the official retirement page should show a picture of Mr. Gold with a thumbs up.
    sidersddy2joshmadforLEGOCrownie
  • MathBuilderMathBuilder Member Posts: 150
    prevere said:

    Personally, I think the official retirement page should show a picture of Mr. Gold with a thumbs up.

    LOL

    But what minifigure should a POP, PhQ or Atlantis set have? The beggar from MMV?
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055

    #6858 6858-1: Catwoman Catcycle City Chase is sold out on [email protected], I guess it is the first Super Heroes to get EOL...let's see how it does, but with two unique minifigures to this sets, might do ok i guess?

    #6858 Catwoman Catcycle City Chase has completely vanished from my area and seemed to happen over night. I decided to quit screwing around and placed my order for #6857 Dynamic Duo Funhouse Escape b/c of it. I think it will be the true gem of the theme - TRU exclusive, iconic villian, exclusive Riddler and Harley figures (so far), both Bats & Robin, neat playset w/ bat vehicle, and decent price.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Funhouse has been out too long IMHO, a ton of resellers have them, including myself, picked up during various BOGO deals over the past year.

    I sold a bunch during Christmas, a few more recently, but still have a pile of them. I'll probably keep 5 or 10 of them, just in case it explodes in price, but I no longer think it will.

    Time will tell. :)

    ----------

    Of course, my general thinking these days is that most sets are no longer going to see the returns of the past, any time making money is this easy, it never lasts, everyone and their brother jumps in on it.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Funhouse is one of those sets where demand will be consistent. Let say it's January 2014 and the only Batman sets available are Arctic and Tumbler Chase, I think the second wave of Batman sets could appreciate nicely.

    Especially if Lego skips Batman for next year. (I'm not saying that would happen).

    There are more 8-year-old boys than 40-year-old resellers. As long as that's the case, sellers should be able to at least double their investment.
  • desultordesultor Southern California, USAMember Posts: 7
    The Pleasanton, CA LEGO Store thinks they won't be getting any more Haunted Houses (I bought their 2nd to last box with a manager's special: 50 bonus VIP points), or Olivia's Houses. They said that TLG has been quietly phasing monster fighters out. They are also out of the Fire Brigade, and think it's gone for good.

    Store predictions can be unreliable; what do you guys think?
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    ^ As stated before, HH will stick around well after MF's theme is gone....and Nbr One rule of FB: Dont talk about FB. HAHA
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    I've found store predictions to be nearly worthless for EOL sets, but useful for what is coming, the managers seem to know about sells well in advance, but the prediction rate on retired sets is so bad, I don't even ask anymore.
  • wrangler6915wrangler6915 USA - Lincoln NEMember Posts: 524
    Arundel Mills (MD) had about 20 HH this past weekend. Manager said that their store wasn't getting anymore, and production had stopped. Didn't put much creedence in it, but may be meaningful since the CA store said same thing?
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