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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    Speaking of #9496, should anything be taken from the fact that it is currently only available on Amazon from third party sellers (unless I'm missing something anyway)? Or, is this merely a lag time between Amazon selling out and restocking?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    edited May 2013
    pharmjod said:

    Speaking of #9496, should anything be taken from the fact that it is currently only available on Amazon from third party sellers (unless I'm missing something anyway)? Or, is this merely a lag time between Amazon selling out and restocking?

    You can take a few things...

    1) It's only available on Amazon from 3rd party sellers
    2) You may be missing something
    3) It may be a lag time between Amazon selling out and restocking
    4) Buy it at Walmart
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    ^Oh boy. Hahahaha
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    I believe it sold out quickly when they matched Target's ~$17 price, so it should be back, albeit for closer to RRP.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    ^^Thanks for the reply dripping with sarcasm. Very helpful.
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    edited May 2013
    #9496 was 16.15 in target and it ran out by tuesday. http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/10642/us-swchima-sale-target#latest i don't know amazon price matched it ever this year. i was looking for it to get there so that i can pick up few sets :P if amazon did then i missed it :P

    #9488 went oos on both target and amazon at $8.55 . amazon was flip-flopping between 9.54 and 8.55 on thursday and friday.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited May 2013
    sidersdd said:

    I'm hoping that the glow-in-the-dark version of the VC will do extremely well in the long run. I believe these were phased out in December. I'm not entirely sure though just how common knowledge it is that there are actually 2 versions of this set. Maybe they'll both just appreciate in unison together, but I'd like to think the 1st edition would become sought after.

    Okay...do tell. Did these two sets have different numbers? What's the telltale difference? Thanks in advance!
    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/10130/monster-fighter-sets-no-longer-have-all-the-same-glow-in-the-dark-features
    Thanks @sidersdd and @tensor.

    I think I must have the first edition (have to dig to see). I bought it last October...
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    edited May 2013
    seems like star war sets are waning off within 6 months of release and we are already seeing closer to 20% discounts already.

    #75002-1 RRP 19.99 Target Sale 16.15 (3.84) 19%
    #75003-1 RRP 24.99 Target Sale 18.00 (6.99) 28%
    #75004-1 RRP 49.99 Target Sale 40.85 (9.14) 18%
    #75005-1 RRP 59.99 Target Sale 49.40 (10.59) 18%

  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    edited May 2013
    pharmjod said:

    ^^Thanks for the reply dripping with sarcasm. Very helpful.

    It wasn't sarcasm, it was 100% serious and here's why it was helpful. The fact remains that every piece of information you can gather about that set, or any set for that matter, doesn't definitively tell you anything about when it will retire. You can use the info points as fuzzy indicators to gauge when something could feasibly might possibly maybe will retire, but that's as good as you're going to get. Some sets have had every indication of retiring and yet remain in our faces (yeah, those two). Then others, like Zombies and Winter Bakery, disappear in the blink of an eye leaving many to go "What? Wait! No!"

    If this were easy and predictable, we'd all be rich.
    CCC
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,430
    tensor said:

    pharmjod said:


    If this were easy and predictable, we'd all be rich.

    If this was predictable, everyone would do it and no one would be rich ;o)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    These are the exact reasons why I don't always wait for a sale to buy my Lego. There are some sets, even at full RRP, that will do very well after retirement. Winter Bakery is a fine example because it left us "in a blink of an eye", but there was ample time to grab a few before it went bye bye. Zombies was a Target "exclusive", so it is a little different story, but same deal. It was available at [email protected] as well, so even if you weren't near a Target you could still grab one. I don't know why people wait til the last minute?
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    would luv to know those sets :) .. who don't like $$$$.. right...

    me new in lego so don't know much about discounts or seasons.. still trying to get accustomed with starwar theme :P since i luv those little figures so much
    Pitfall69 said:

    These are the exact reasons why I don't always wait for a sale to buy my Lego. There are some sets, even at full RRP, that will do very well after retirement. Winter Bakery is a fine example because it left us "in a blink of an eye", but there was ample time to grab a few before it went bye bye. Zombies was a Target "exclusive", so it is a little different story, but same deal. It was available at [email protected] as well, so even if you weren't near a Target you could still grab one. I don't know why people wait til the last minute?

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,565
    Pitfall69 said:

    These are the exact reasons why I don't always wait for a sale to buy my Lego. There are some sets, even at full RRP, that will do very well after retirement. Winter Bakery is a fine example because it left us "in a blink of an eye", but there was ample time to grab a few before it went bye bye. Zombies was a Target "exclusive", so it is a little different story, but same deal. It was available at [email protected] as well, so even if you weren't near a Target you could still grab one. I don't know why people wait til the last minute?

    IMO Winter Bakery did not go in the blink of an eye.
    Helicopter and limo went in the blink of an eye, Zombies went in the blink of an eye.
    Bakery was out for 2-3 years, available at many retailers, and on clearance at times for 2 of those years if I am not mistaken.

    I do agree that if you want a set, get one especially if it is an exclusive set at one particular store, as you just do not know how long the set will be available
    Some exclusives have only lasted 6 months, others have lasted longer so it really is unknown.
    All I'm saying is if you are in the US and want a Helicopter Rescue I would not wait much longer (as it is a Walmart Exclusive).
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    I guess what I meant was that people waited until it was too late to buy Winter Bakery. All of a sudden it was sold out when people thought they would wait to get a good discount. Also, Winter Bakery was a seasonal item and not always available at the Lego Store and/or [email protected]
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,565
    edited May 2013
    Pitfall69 said:

    I guess what I meant was that people waited until it was too late to buy Winter Bakery. All of a sudden it was sold out when people thought they would wait to get a good discount. Also, Winter Bakery was a seasonal item and not always available at the Lego Store and/or [email protected]

    True, but there still were out there for 2-3 years, seasonal or not.
    I think the bigger example are the retailer exclusives that were out for about 6 months though.

    I guess the main message here is if you want to buy a set, buy it when you see it, and do not assume it will be out forever.

    Of course this is the reason why I still expect sets like FB and DS to briefly rise rapidly when discontinued (though they will hit a ceiling like other well stocked sets in the after market).
    There are just those that will always assume that set will be around, especially when if that set was already out for 4 years.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,395
    Did Zombies go in the blink of an eye. I recall reports of people buying on clearance after six months. I guess most people assumed it would come back for the rest of the year.
  • SirKevbagsSirKevbags Fairy Land Member Posts: 4,027
    I would love to know the story behind the Zombies set. An exclusive in the UK and US plus [email protected] and brand stores of course. Was it limited to one retailer in other markets? Was it always planned as a limited run with perhaps a seasonal element to it? Were there complaints because of the set design? I find that unlikely as I'm sure it would have leaked out somewhere.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited May 2013
    ^ exclusive in Australia as well (Big W), one benifit we seem to get is that sometimes retailers get a shipment after EOL in other markets.

    Zombies for example, I picked up about 12 when it was gone in the US and selling for close to $100. I paid $58 for them which was $12 below our retail.

    Diagon Allley is another good example (Target Exclusive), had a supper high retail of $279.99 so didn't sell well. Only 8 weeks ago I picked up another couple for $179 which I think is an ok price considering it was already EOL.

    Just two weeks ago an online store here had Medieval Market Village for $102 shipped. I think before EOL the cheapest I could get one shipped from OS was about $110.
  • SirKevbagsSirKevbags Fairy Land Member Posts: 4,027
    Maybe retailer driven on the Zombies then. They wanted enough to see them through Halloween and after that were happy enough to drop it? Would have been nice for [email protected] to still carry it but maybe exclusive retailer agreements prohibit that.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    tensor said:

    pharmjod said:

    ^^Thanks for the reply dripping with sarcasm. Very helpful.

    It wasn't sarcasm, it was 100% serious and here's why it was helpful. The fact remains that every piece of information you can gather about that set, or any set for that matter, doesn't definitively tell you anything about when it will retire. You can use the info points as fuzzy indicators to gauge when something could feasibly might possibly maybe will retire, but that's as good as you're going to get. Some sets have had every indication of retiring and yet remain in our faces (yeah, those two). Then others, like Zombies and Winter Bakery, disappear in the blink of an eye leaving many to go "What? Wait! No!"

    If this were easy and predictable, we'd all be rich.
    I'm not an idiot. I am well aware of all of these fact. I have been buying/selling/collecting LEGO since 1998 so I have a clue. No one ever said it was easy.

    In my reading of your post the response came across as both snarky and dismissive. This particular thread is named "Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value" so I was just bringing up a different set to talk about. Per your "helpful" response, we might as well close this thread since nothing useful can be gained from respectfully discussing or predicting set retirement. Again, thanks for your relatively unhelpful response to my legitimate attempt at dialogue.

    @y2josh actually gave a what I think can be defined as a "helpful" response to the question for what it's worth.
    Dougout
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,565
    CCC said:

    Did Zombies go in the blink of an eye. I recall reports of people buying on clearance after six months. I guess most people assumed it would come back for the rest of the year.

    Well Ill qualify my comments in saying these were gone pretty quick in US.
    While I'm sure these could have been on clearance at a few Targets, just because it can be found on clearance at a couple of stores (in relation to all Targets total) does not detract from it being gone pretty darn quick from stores and LEGO for that matter.
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    The last time I ever saw Zombies at a Target was when they had it on sale for $30 + they had a $5 off $25 coupon. Picked up two during that sale and they never showed up on shelves again after that.
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    looks like lego store are having 20% off on chima and monster except the haunted house. that's what i saw today :D
  • PoochyPoochy USAMember Posts: 479
    iccarus said:

    The last time I ever saw Zombies at a Target was when they had it on sale for $30 + they had a $5 off $25 coupon.

    Same, went to pick up two Podracers for $30, saw the sale on the Zombies and picked up a couple just for the heck of it. Should have ignored the Podracers and picked up all the Zombies instead. Oh well ...

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Whew...just saw the price for the MF Zombie set on eBay. Good grief! I never picked up the set, but if I had I would be selling it quick. I just can't see it holding the price it's at for long. I could be wrong...maybe it will peak closer to Halloween, but I would think that would be its high. There are other better MF sets that are still available. A reseller's dream...
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    edited May 2013

    Whew...just saw the price for the MF Zombie set on eBay. Good grief! I never picked up the set, but if I had I would be selling it quick. I just can't see it holding the price it's at for long. I could be wrong...maybe it will peak closer to Halloween, but I would think that would be its high. There are other better MF sets that are still available. A reseller's dream...

    I know what you mean, even at £24.99 it still didnt make me buy them, who these people are paying the prices for them at the moment i'll never know.

    But i guess its still nice to know there are still small sets out there in 2013 that can be good investments


  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    It's most likely collectors who just want to complete their Monster Fighter collection. I doubt they would even open the set.
    cardgenius
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^I parted-out two of them when they were $30 at Target. Now, I'm reverse engineering them.
    Farmer_John
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,355
    Because it needs to be brought up for the 1000th time, Death Star is no longer listed at Walmart.com....
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Wait, the DS can't retire yet. It's only been available for 5 years. Well 5 years as of June 21.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    DS retired? This thread will never be the same
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    dougts said:

    the writing seems to be on the wall for Fire Brigade. TRU has pulled it off their site completely, my local LEGO store has been out for several weeks, and the manager told me they haven't been getting any in their weekly shipments, and no more are coming in next week either.

    i don't expect it to last the season.

    Circa de 2011 October.... FB beats DS in the thread, and it's been pulled from more sites more times and been "EOL'd" like a champ, but not.

    If the DODO bird was FB, it wouldnt be extinct yet.

    (sorry, I couldnt help but bring up FB...DS and FB are like Thelma and Louise)
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    you go on as though 5 years is a long time, wasnt the UCS ISD out for a similar period?

    I guess just not as many people were aware of the fact back then

    On Brickpicker i see threads everyday such as when will this set EOL, what about this set, when will this set be discontinued, is this set going to be discontinued? even though the set hasnt even been out for a year, seems like everyone on that website is so desperate for sets to EOL they'll probably start discussing when Tower of orthanc will be retired LOL

    Jeez, enjoy Lego for what it is and stop obsessing over EOL dates! everything seems to be about making money when it comes to Lego i know its an investing forum but still.....
    Thanos75
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 934
    ISD was 2002 - around 2008!
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    So I ask myself if DS was retiring immediately where existing quantity on Amazon was all that was left...(like the IS and DA countdowns), would I actually buy any?

    Honestly, I probably wouldn't.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 934
    Given the thousands that people already have stashed away :)
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,110
    ^ i wouldn't touch DS at full retail at this point. not saying you won't eventually make money, but it's going to be a long wait to get there...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    dougts said:

    ^ i wouldn't touch DS at full retail at this point. not saying you won't eventually make money, but it's going to be a long wait to get there...

    I concur. I don't think the DS is the next UCS MF, in fact, I don't think there will ever be another UCS MF. I have only bought one DS and it is still in its shipping container. I don't plan on buying anymore unless there is a huge sale. Don't get me wrong, the DS is a great looking set...a lot of play value there, but I think I'm better off with sets the size of Diagon Alley (box size). Smaller boxes and easier to store.
    Thanos75cloaked7
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    dougts said:

    ^ i wouldn't touch DS at full retail at this point. not saying you won't eventually make money, but it's going to be a long wait to get there...

    Actually full retail at this point is better than full retail five years ago if you factor in time value of money.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    ...as far as FB is concerned, I didn't buy a lot of them. I still think it will do well after it is retired because there are still people getting into Lego for the first time, people coming out of their Dark Ages and people that are just now starting to take a plunge into collecting the modulars. Fire Brigade is a great set for MOC's as well.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    dougts said:

    ^ i wouldn't touch DS at full retail at this point. not saying you won't eventually make money, but it's going to be a long wait to get there...

    It's not the long wait post-EOL that stops me from buying several Death Stars, as I still maintain, even if you bought them at retail, you'll be able to make a good two hundred dollars or so relatively quickly. For me, it's the fact that the Death Star shows no signs of retiring any time soon, and I simply don't want to store them for a long time.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    The only way I see the Death Star going up in price that quickly is if it EOLs right before the holidays. It's still a $400 playset aimed at kids. It's not a UCS or a modular which are aimed at adults. You have to have a lot of disposable income at hand to fork over $600 to an online reseller. There are limits that even rich parents adhere to.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    I disagree with you about limits that even rich parents stick to comment. Stupid knows no limit. There are plenty of parents out there with the money and lack of discipline or common sense that would drop $1k on their kid without blinking an eye.
    BrickDancerLegoFanTexas
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,565
    edited May 2013
    I think you also have to account for those that will panic buy, and also those that will be more than happy to buy a DS for 600 thinking it will double in 1 year.
    So I think the price jumps but then stabilizes at one amount due to stock out there.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    So the trick is to instinctually buy right before it EOLs and sell immediately following.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    mathew said:

    So the trick is to instinctually buy right before it EOLs and sell immediately following.

    Some call it instinct, others call it skill
    Pitfall69LegoFanTexas
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    Based on Walmart being sold out and information about the Ewok Village emerging I think we can ascertain that the Death Star will finally EOL this year. I'm guessing late summer is when we'll see other retailers sell out. I don't see Lego advertising this as "Retiring Soon".
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    Resellers are like day traders. Timing is everything. You basically have to be glued to a computer or smart phone, so you can buy when there's a great sale. You also have to have enough money so you can pull the trigger just like that.
    Dougout
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Pitfall69 said:

    Resellers are like day traders. Timing is everything. You basically have to be glued to a computer or smart phone, so you can buy when there's a great sale. You also have to have enough money so you can pull the trigger just like that.

    :) I don't think it is "quite" the same, since we don't sell just as fast...
    Pitfall69
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    mathew said:

    Based on Walmart being sold out and information about the Ewok Village emerging I think we can ascertain that the Death Star will finally EOL this year. I'm guessing late summer is when we'll see other retailers sell out. I don't see Lego advertising this as "Retiring Soon".

    While that is possible, DS has been "sold out" many times before only to come back.

    When it says "sold out" at [email protected], then I'll be concerned...

    For what it is worth, my info says it will be here until the end of 2014. We shall see if that turns out to be true. I do not believe that Ewok Village is set to replace it.
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