Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

pharmjod · May 2013

Speaking of #9496, should anything be taken from the fact that it is currently only available on Amazon from third party sellers (unless I'm missing something anyway)? Or, is this merely a lag time between Amazon selling out and restocking?

TheLoneTensor · May 2013

pharmjod said:
Speaking of #9496, should anything be taken from the fact that it is currently only available on Amazon from third party sellers (unless I'm missing something anyway)? Or, is this merely a lag time between Amazon selling out and restocking?

You can take a few things...

1) It's only available on Amazon from 3rd party sellers
2) You may be missing something
3) It may be a lag time between Amazon selling out and restocking
4) Buy it at Walmart

Pitfall69 · May 2013

^Oh boy. Hahahaha

y2josh · May 2013

I believe it sold out quickly when they matched Target's ~$17 price, so it should be back, albeit for closer to RRP.

pharmjod · May 2013

^^Thanks for the reply dripping with sarcasm. Very helpful.

starwarfan77 · May 2013

#9496 was 16.15 in target and it ran out by tuesday. http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/10642/us-swchima-sale-target#latest i don't know amazon price matched it ever this year. i was looking for it to get there so that i can pick up few sets :P if amazon did then i missed it :P

#9488 went oos on both target and amazon at $8.55 . amazon was flip-flopping between 9.54 and 8.55 on thursday and friday.

Farmer_John · May 2013

sidersdd said:

Farmer_John said:

BlueMoonUSA said:
I'm hoping that the glow-in-the-dark version of the VC will do extremely well in the long run. I believe these were phased out in December. I'm not entirely sure though just how common knowledge it is that there are actually 2 versions of this set. Maybe they'll both just appreciate in unison together, but I'd like to think the 1st edition would become sought after.
Okay...do tell. Did these two sets have different numbers? What's the telltale difference? Thanks in advance!
http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/10130/monster-fighter-sets-no-longer-have-all-the-same-glow-in-the-dark-features

Thanks @sidersdd and @tensor.

I think I must have the first edition (have to dig to see). I bought it last October...

starwarfan77 · May 2013

seems like star war sets are waning off within 6 months of release and we are already seeing closer to 20% discounts already.

#75002-1 RRP 19.99 Target Sale 16.15 (3.84) 19%
#75003-1 RRP 24.99 Target Sale 18.00 (6.99) 28%
#75004-1 RRP 49.99 Target Sale 40.85 (9.14) 18%
#75005-1 RRP 59.99 Target Sale 49.40 (10.59) 18%

TheLoneTensor · May 2013

pharmjod said:
^^Thanks for the reply dripping with sarcasm. Very helpful.

It wasn't sarcasm, it was 100% serious and here's why it was helpful. The fact remains that every piece of information you can gather about that set, or any set for that matter, doesn't definitively tell you anything about when it will retire. You can use the info points as fuzzy indicators to gauge when something could feasibly might possibly maybe will retire, but that's as good as you're going to get. Some sets have had every indication of retiring and yet remain in our faces (yeah, those two). Then others, like Zombies and Winter Bakery, disappear in the blink of an eye leaving many to go "What? Wait! No!"

If this were easy and predictable, we'd all be rich.

samiam391 · May 2013

tensor said:

pharmjod said:

If this were easy and predictable, we'd all be rich.
If this was predictable, everyone would do it and no one would be rich ;o)

Pitfall69 · May 2013

These are the exact reasons why I don't always wait for a sale to buy my Lego. There are some sets, even at full RRP, that will do very well after retirement. Winter Bakery is a fine example because it left us "in a blink of an eye", but there was ample time to grab a few before it went bye bye. Zombies was a Target "exclusive", so it is a little different story, but same deal. It was available at [email protected] as well, so even if you weren't near a Target you could still grab one. I don't know why people wait til the last minute?

starwarfan77 · May 2013

would luv to know those sets :) .. who don't like $$$$.. right...

me new in lego so don't know much about discounts or seasons.. still trying to get accustomed with starwar theme :P since i luv those little figures so much

Pitfall69 said:
These are the exact reasons why I don't always wait for a sale to buy my Lego. There are some sets, even at full RRP, that will do very well after retirement. Winter Bakery is a fine example because it left us "in a blink of an eye", but there was ample time to grab a few before it went bye bye. Zombies was a Target "exclusive", so it is a little different story, but same deal. It was available at [email protected] as well, so even if you weren't near a Target you could still grab one. I don't know why people wait til the last minute?

madforLEGO · May 2013

Pitfall69 said:
These are the exact reasons why I don't always wait for a sale to buy my Lego. There are some sets, even at full RRP, that will do very well after retirement. Winter Bakery is a fine example because it left us "in a blink of an eye", but there was ample time to grab a few before it went bye bye. Zombies was a Target "exclusive", so it is a little different story, but same deal. It was available at [email protected] as well, so even if you weren't near a Target you could still grab one. I don't know why people wait til the last minute?

IMO Winter Bakery did not go in the blink of an eye.
Helicopter and limo went in the blink of an eye, Zombies went in the blink of an eye.
Bakery was out for 2-3 years, available at many retailers, and on clearance at times for 2 of those years if I am not mistaken.

I do agree that if you want a set, get one especially if it is an exclusive set at one particular store, as you just do not know how long the set will be available
Some exclusives have only lasted 6 months, others have lasted longer so it really is unknown.
All I'm saying is if you are in the US and want a Helicopter Rescue I would not wait much longer (as it is a Walmart Exclusive).

Pitfall69 · May 2013

I guess what I meant was that people waited until it was too late to buy Winter Bakery. All of a sudden it was sold out when people thought they would wait to get a good discount. Also, Winter Bakery was a seasonal item and not always available at the Lego Store and/or [email protected]

madforLEGO · May 2013

Pitfall69 said:
I guess what I meant was that people waited until it was too late to buy Winter Bakery. All of a sudden it was sold out when people thought they would wait to get a good discount. Also, Winter Bakery was a seasonal item and not always available at the Lego Store and/or [email protected]

True, but there still were out there for 2-3 years, seasonal or not.
I think the bigger example are the retailer exclusives that were out for about 6 months though.

I guess the main message here is if you want to buy a set, buy it when you see it, and do not assume it will be out forever.

Of course this is the reason why I still expect sets like FB and DS to briefly rise rapidly when discontinued (though they will hit a ceiling like other well stocked sets in the after market).
There are just those that will always assume that set will be around, especially when if that set was already out for 4 years.

CCC · May 2013

Did Zombies go in the blink of an eye. I recall reports of people buying on clearance after six months. I guess most people assumed it would come back for the rest of the year.

SirKevbags · May 2013

I would love to know the story behind the Zombies set. An exclusive in the UK and US plus [email protected] and brand stores of course. Was it limited to one retailer in other markets? Was it always planned as a limited run with perhaps a seasonal element to it? Were there complaints because of the set design? I find that unlikely as I'm sure it would have leaked out somewhere.

Basta · May 2013

^ exclusive in Australia as well (Big W), one benifit we seem to get is that sometimes retailers get a shipment after EOL in other markets.

Zombies for example, I picked up about 12 when it was gone in the US and selling for close to $100. I paid $58 for them which was $12 below our retail.

Diagon Allley is another good example (Target Exclusive), had a supper high retail of $279.99 so didn't sell well. Only 8 weeks ago I picked up another couple for $179 which I think is an ok price considering it was already EOL.

Just two weeks ago an online store here had Medieval Market Village for $102 shipped. I think before EOL the cheapest I could get one shipped from OS was about $110.

SirKevbags · May 2013

Maybe retailer driven on the Zombies then. They wanted enough to see them through Halloween and after that were happy enough to drop it? Would have been nice for [email protected] to still carry it but maybe exclusive retailer agreements prohibit that.

pharmjod · May 2013

tensor said:

pharmjod said:
^^Thanks for the reply dripping with sarcasm. Very helpful.
It wasn't sarcasm, it was 100% serious and here's why it was helpful. The fact remains that every piece of information you can gather about that set, or any set for that matter, doesn't definitively tell you anything about when it will retire. You can use the info points as fuzzy indicators to gauge when something could feasibly might possibly maybe will retire, but that's as good as you're going to get. Some sets have had every indication of retiring and yet remain in our faces (yeah, those two). Then others, like Zombies and Winter Bakery, disappear in the blink of an eye leaving many to go "What? Wait! No!"

If this were easy and predictable, we'd all be rich.

I'm not an idiot. I am well aware of all of these fact. I have been buying/selling/collecting LEGO since 1998 so I have a clue. No one ever said it was easy.

In my reading of your post the response came across as both snarky and dismissive. This particular thread is named "Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value" so I was just bringing up a different set to talk about. Per your "helpful" response, we might as well close this thread since nothing useful can be gained from respectfully discussing or predicting set retirement. Again, thanks for your relatively unhelpful response to my legitimate attempt at dialogue.

@y2josh actually gave a what I think can be defined as a "helpful" response to the question for what it's worth.

madforLEGO · May 2013

CCC said:
Did Zombies go in the blink of an eye. I recall reports of people buying on clearance after six months. I guess most people assumed it would come back for the rest of the year.

Well Ill qualify my comments in saying these were gone pretty quick in US.
While I'm sure these could have been on clearance at a few Targets, just because it can be found on clearance at a couple of stores (in relation to all Targets total) does not detract from it being gone pretty darn quick from stores and LEGO for that matter.

BuriedinBricks · May 2013

The last time I ever saw Zombies at a Target was when they had it on sale for $30 + they had a $5 off $25 coupon. Picked up two during that sale and they never showed up on shelves again after that.

starwarfan77 · May 2013

looks like lego store are having 20% off on chima and monster except the haunted house. that's what i saw today :D

Poochy · May 2013

iccarus said:
The last time I ever saw Zombies at a Target was when they had it on sale for $30 + they had a $5 off $25 coupon.

Same, went to pick up two Podracers for $30, saw the sale on the Zombies and picked up a couple just for the heck of it. Should have ignored the Podracers and picked up all the Zombies instead. Oh well ...

Farmer_John · May 2013

Whew...just saw the price for the MF Zombie set on eBay. Good grief! I never picked up the set, but if I had I would be selling it quick. I just can't see it holding the price it's at for long. I could be wrong...maybe it will peak closer to Halloween, but I would think that would be its high. There are other better MF sets that are still available. A reseller's dream...

Legofanscott · May 2013

Farmer_John said:
Whew...just saw the price for the MF Zombie set on eBay. Good grief! I never picked up the set, but if I had I would be selling it quick. I just can't see it holding the price it's at for long. I could be wrong...maybe it will peak closer to Halloween, but I would think that would be its high. There are other better MF sets that are still available. A reseller's dream...

I know what you mean, even at £24.99 it still didnt make me buy them, who these people are paying the prices for them at the moment i'll never know.

But i guess its still nice to know there are still small sets out there in 2013 that can be good investments

Renny · May 2013

It's most likely collectors who just want to complete their Monster Fighter collection. I doubt they would even open the set.

prevere · May 2013

^I parted-out two of them when they were $30 at Target. Now, I'm reverse engineering them.

Bumblepants · May 2013

Because it needs to be brought up for the 1000th time, Death Star is no longer listed at Walmart.com....

prevere · May 2013

Wait, the DS can't retire yet. It's only been available for 5 years. Well 5 years as of June 21.

dragonhawk · May 2013

DS retired? This thread will never be the same

jasor · May 2013

dougts said:
the writing seems to be on the wall for Fire Brigade. TRU has pulled it off their site completely, my local LEGO store has been out for several weeks, and the manager told me they haven't been getting any in their weekly shipments, and no more are coming in next week either.

i don't expect it to last the season.

Circa de 2011 October.... FB beats DS in the thread, and it's been pulled from more sites more times and been "EOL'd" like a champ, but not.

If the DODO bird was FB, it wouldnt be extinct yet.

(sorry, I couldnt help but bring up FB...DS and FB are like Thelma and Louise)

Legofanscott · May 2013

you go on as though 5 years is a long time, wasnt the UCS ISD out for a similar period?

I guess just not as many people were aware of the fact back then

On Brickpicker i see threads everyday such as when will this set EOL, what about this set, when will this set be discontinued, is this set going to be discontinued? even though the set hasnt even been out for a year, seems like everyone on that website is so desperate for sets to EOL they'll probably start discussing when Tower of orthanc will be retired LOL

Jeez, enjoy Lego for what it is and stop obsessing over EOL dates! everything seems to be about making money when it comes to Lego i know its an investing forum but still.....

stevemack · May 2013

ISD was 2002 - around 2008!

prevere · May 2013

So I ask myself if DS was retiring immediately where existing quantity on Amazon was all that was left...(like the IS and DA countdowns), would I actually buy any?

Honestly, I probably wouldn't.

stevemack · May 2013

Given the thousands that people already have stashed away :)

dougts · May 2013

^ i wouldn't touch DS at full retail at this point. not saying you won't eventually make money, but it's going to be a long wait to get there...

Pitfall69 · May 2013

dougts said:
^ i wouldn't touch DS at full retail at this point. not saying you won't eventually make money, but it's going to be a long wait to get there...

I concur. I don't think the DS is the next UCS MF, in fact, I don't think there will ever be another UCS MF. I have only bought one DS and it is still in its shipping container. I don't plan on buying anymore unless there is a huge sale. Don't get me wrong, the DS is a great looking set...a lot of play value there, but I think I'm better off with sets the size of Diagon Alley (box size). Smaller boxes and easier to store.

Farmer_John · May 2013

dougts said:
^ i wouldn't touch DS at full retail at this point. not saying you won't eventually make money, but it's going to be a long wait to get there...

Actually full retail at this point is better than full retail five years ago if you factor in time value of money.

Pitfall69 · May 2013

...as far as FB is concerned, I didn't buy a lot of them. I still think it will do well after it is retired because there are still people getting into Lego for the first time, people coming out of their Dark Ages and people that are just now starting to take a plunge into collecting the modulars. Fire Brigade is a great set for MOC's as well.

y2josh · May 2013

dougts said:
^ i wouldn't touch DS at full retail at this point. not saying you won't eventually make money, but it's going to be a long wait to get there...

It's not the long wait post-EOL that stops me from buying several Death Stars, as I still maintain, even if you bought them at retail, you'll be able to make a good two hundred dollars or so relatively quickly. For me, it's the fact that the Death Star shows no signs of retiring any time soon, and I simply don't want to store them for a long time.

mathew · May 2013

The only way I see the Death Star going up in price that quickly is if it EOLs right before the holidays. It's still a $400 playset aimed at kids. It's not a UCS or a modular which are aimed at adults. You have to have a lot of disposable income at hand to fork over $600 to an online reseller. There are limits that even rich parents adhere to.

pharmjod · May 2013

I disagree with you about limits that even rich parents stick to comment. Stupid knows no limit. There are plenty of parents out there with the money and lack of discipline or common sense that would drop $1k on their kid without blinking an eye.

madforLEGO · May 2013

I think you also have to account for those that will panic buy, and also those that will be more than happy to buy a DS for 600 thinking it will double in 1 year.
So I think the price jumps but then stabilizes at one amount due to stock out there.

mathew · May 2013

So the trick is to instinctually buy right before it EOLs and sell immediately following.

dragonhawk · May 2013

mathew said:
So the trick is to instinctually buy right before it EOLs and sell immediately following.

Some call it instinct, others call it skill

mathew · May 2013

Based on Walmart being sold out and information about the Ewok Village emerging I think we can ascertain that the Death Star will finally EOL this year. I'm guessing late summer is when we'll see other retailers sell out. I don't see Lego advertising this as "Retiring Soon".

Pitfall69 · May 2013

Resellers are like day traders. Timing is everything. You basically have to be glued to a computer or smart phone, so you can buy when there's a great sale. You also have to have enough money so you can pull the trigger just like that.

LegoFanTexas · May 2013

Pitfall69 said:
Resellers are like day traders. Timing is everything. You basically have to be glued to a computer or smart phone, so you can buy when there's a great sale. You also have to have enough money so you can pull the trigger just like that.

:) I don't think it is "quite" the same, since we don't sell just as fast...

LegoFanTexas · May 2013

mathew said:
Based on Walmart being sold out and information about the Ewok Village emerging I think we can ascertain that the Death Star will finally EOL this year. I'm guessing late summer is when we'll see other retailers sell out. I don't see Lego advertising this as "Retiring Soon".

While that is possible, DS has been "sold out" many times before only to come back.

When it says "sold out" at [email protected], then I'll be concerned...

For what it is worth, my info says it will be here until the end of 2014. We shall see if that turns out to be true. I do not believe that Ewok Village is set to replace it.

Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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