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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    Pitfall69 said:

    I'm alittle off today. The 3 month old was crying all day and now the 3 year old is crying.

    My 8 month old has been crying everyday for the last 6 months. God how I miss sleep. My blood type probably registers as pure Red Bull these days.

    Pitfall69LegoFanTexasGeddes
  • DevastatorDevastator Member Posts: 66
    So when I get audited in the next few months and plead the fifth, they will leave me alone right?

    Seriously though, I'm wondering how long I should wait to pick up Helm's Deep before it's cut off. Any recommendations on what to be looking for?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    So when I get audited in the next few months and plead the fifth, they will leave me alone right?

    :) No, it just means they can't make you talk. They can still decide you owe money and hand you a bill. :)

    Seriously though, I'm wondering how long I should wait to pick up Helm's Deep before it's cut off. Any recommendations on what to be looking for?

    I would now, my understanding is that it is going sometime between now and the end of the year. But that could be wrong, it might just be ITDs that can't order it past this summer.

    If you want one, I wouldn't wait.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^^Yeah, what I meant was an account with a higher % than the current rate of inflation.

    Sure, but to the average person, such accounts no longer exist.

    Inflation is actually running as much as 8% a year, depending on what numbers you care to use. The current Consumer Price Index number is a joke.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505144_162-57387655/inflation-not-as-low-as-you-think/

    Same thing with unemployment, they keep saying it is dropping. Currently for April the widely reported number is 7.5%. Sure, if you don't actually count everyone. The actual number of unemployed is actually over 14%.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertlenzner/2013/04/08/the-job-figures-should-spook-the-stock-market-bulls/

    10 minutes of Google searching on both subjects should give all Americans pause, but of course most people don't do this, so the train wreck carries on.
    FollowsCloselyFenrisAkashipharmjod
  • adam2edenadam2eden Member Posts: 13
    edited May 2013
    BN sends out another 20% for members, plus 10% I can get a set with 28% off, they have helm's deep, MF VC and the ghos train, wondering if this is a good price to get any. How I miss the old days, used to get mindstorm nxt 2.0 from them less than $200

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444

    So when I get audited in the next few months and plead the fifth, they will leave me alone right?

    :) No, it just means they can't make you talk. They can still decide you owe money and hand you a bill. :)

    Seriously though, I'm wondering how long I should wait to pick up Helm's Deep before it's cut off. Any recommendations on what to be looking for?

    I would now, my understanding is that it is going sometime between now and the end of the year. But that could be wrong, it might just be ITDs that can't order it past this summer.

    If you want one, I wouldn't wait.
    Ok, from what I gather....if you are a member of the Federal Government, you can't evoke the 5th Amendment.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    We need to stay on topic. Although I like when the train gets derailed from time to time ;)

  • pillpodpillpod Member Posts: 273
    Can anyone address this:

    During the holidays, will the Winter Village sets be on sale? Or will they most likely be at retail price?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    edited May 2013
    Actually, that may not be the case. When governments print money, they are devaluing the currency, which makes goods and services more expensive when paid for in that currency.

    LEGO bought today becomes worth more a year from now when the currency is worth less.

    At 7% inflation, currency will lose half its value in 10 years. Thus a LEGO set (or gold or a house or anything else that someone may buy in 10 years) would double in value, all else being equal.

    The "equal" part assumes that some new way to make LEGO (or gold or houses) doesn't come out that changes the real cost of production.

    But actually I don't see LEGO getting that much cheaper in 10 years, so it actually isn't such a bad hedge against inflation. I own gold for much the same reason.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    Ok, from what I gather....if you are a member of the Federal Government, you can't evoke the 5th Amendment.

    That is not correct, of course you can. Every citizen has the right to the 5th amendment protections against self-incrimination. That would be like saying members of the Federal Government don't have the right to free speech, freedom of assembly, or freedom of religion.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    We need to stay on topic. Although I like when the train gets derailed from time to time ;)

    Amen... it sure is fun, isn't it? :)

    So when is the Death Star retiring? :)
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    I could have sworn last night I read @LegoFanTexas confessing he was being played for fools. Now the post is gone... If you do not believe that big brother is watching you there is your proof. ;)

    So, which will retire first, FB or DS ?
  • PoochyPoochy USAMember Posts: 479
    pillpod said:

    During the holidays, will the Winter Village sets be on sale? Or will they most likely be at retail price?

    The IRS, oops, sorry, I meant they will most likely be at retail prices at the start and during the holidays. They may go on sale afterward depending on stock inventory, etc. For example, the WV Cottage went on sale post-Xmas at $70 around the SoCal areas.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    I could have sworn last night I read @LegoFanTexas confessing he was being played for fools. Now the post is gone... If you do not believe that big brother is watching you there is your proof. ;)

    So, which will retire first, FB or DS ?

    Yep, an admin deleted the post. Grr...

    As for FB vs DS, I expect FB to retire first, end of this year, DS will probably stay another year. :(
    dragonhawk
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited May 2013
    Can we please move this off-topic political discussion to another thread where it can be more easily ignored?
    madforLEGO
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    pillpod said:

    Can anyone address this:

    During the holidays, will the Winter Village sets be on sale? Or will they most likely be at retail price?

    Retail at first when it returns. Now this year, it was available for $70 in January at brand stores. A nice price for that set. I expect the Post Office to return. It has too, because I don't have one yet.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    pillpod said:

    Can anyone address this:

    During the holidays, will the Winter Village sets be on sale? Or will they most likely be at retail price?

    Whatever ones that will be on sale this year (and there is much speculation as to which those will actually be) are likely to be full price until after Xmas at least, at which point they may or may not go on sale.

    Also, some may actually retire quietly before Xmas, not unlike the Bakery.

    dragonhawk
  • legogregorslegogregors Member Posts: 402
    It is hard to predict specific sales but I would try to time these purchases with Bricktober or Black Friday deals.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    prevere said:

    I expect the Post Office to return. It has too, because I don't have one yet.

    :) Always perfectly reasonable logic!

    Actually, Post Office might well be retired, it does say retired on [email protected] and it seems to already be doing well in the aftermarket.

    If it does retire, it may well be higher than Bakery this coming Christmas, since it wasn't expected.
  • joel4motionjoel4motion United KingdomMember Posts: 959
    Read quite a bit lately to suggest that MF line will be EOL'd towards the end of this year. Anyone think HH and VC have great resale potential? Id like to think so myself, especially HH but its an expensive set to sit on in multiples.

    Is TH likely to be the next modular to go?
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    TH? No, it couldn't. FB, GE and PS have to go before TH. Fire Brigade will most likely be the next modular to go.

    As for HH and VC, I think they both definitely have potential.

    madforLEGO
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    edited May 2013
    HH will haunt resellers for years. It'll be around a long, long time.
    FollowsCloselyindigoboxmadforLEGO
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    MF is indeed retiring this year, however HH may be a special case, I would think it would stick around for a year or two longer, given the size and detail.

    TH isn't going anywhere, FB, GE, and PS all came out before it. FB is slated to go end of 2013, GE and PS are both slated to go end of 2014, TH will be here into 2015.

    Or so says what I've read. :) Subject to change without notice of course. :)

    VC will do ok, however a lot of copies were purchased for 30% off from various sources, many being held for later, so it is hard to tell. It also depends on if anyone remembers it or if the world moves on. Some one-and-done themes do well, most do not.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    edited May 2013
    tensor said:

    pillpod said:

    Can anyone address this:

    During the holidays, will the Winter Village sets be on sale? Or will they most likely be at retail price?

    Whatever ones that will be on sale this year (and there is much speculation as to which those will actually be) are likely to be full price until after Xmas at least, at which point they may or may not go on sale.

    Also, some may actually retire quietly before Xmas, not unlike the Bakery.

    IF Post Office is making a return this Christmas, I suggest grabbing them at full price. I was hoping to buy some Bakery during the "after Xmas sales" 2012, but they were apparently gone from [email protected] and the stores long before 12/25

  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    It's been said here before and I completely agree. The price of the VC will most likely be kept at bay as long as the HH is still available. The VC is a cool set, but I would choose the HH over it every time if the price was close.

    The HH is such an awesome set. I think it hit the perfect sweet spot that exists between play and display.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    ^ Great. So we can expect a few people with a stash of VCs asking when HH will retire. I am getting tired of asking about FB and DS anyway ;)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ When will GE retire?
    madforLEGO
  • FenrisAkashiFenrisAkashi Member Posts: 242
    edited May 2013
    CircleK said:

    It's been said here before and I completely agree. The price of the VC will most likely be kept at bay as long as the HH is still available.

    Likely so, but if the price does get close thats still almost 100% increase for those who got them on sale which isnt terrible. HH being around could also help drive demand for EOL MF sets so its likely to cut both ways.
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    ^^ Good Point.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    VC is a long range gamble for me. I say gamble because I intend to get a few more, even at near retail, in better condition than those that were kicked around Walmart, to hold for 5+ years in the hopes that there will not be another similar "Halloween" seasonal line.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    ^It's on backorder now.
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    edited May 2013
    some star war sets. what would be the potential on:
    #9488
    #9496
    #9489
    #7914

    i personally think #9496 will go well with #9516 and #75005. so may be true value will come out after the retirement of #75005 which won't be till end of 2014?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    I think there are some comparisons that can be drawn between Harry Potter's Burrow / DA & Monster Fighters VC / HH.

    One smaller building, one larger building(s).
    One smaller price point, one larger one.
    One EOL'd sooner over the other by a year or more.

    Burrow started to climb in value and held until DA retired, then climbed to another level (about $200 now). Like some comments above, I think that will hold true for the VC / HH relationship. I think VC will get to about $180, then after HH retires, maybe $250. (And if you bought at retail, that still isn't great, if you are targeting 3x of purchase price.)

    This is just my wild crazy theory; and I've been known to lose my mind once in awhile, so take it all with a grain of salt.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,645
    Would someone really pay $250 for VC? There's no way I would. Although bear in mind I MOC rather than collect sets.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    ^I think someone would in 2015 at Xmas time. For little Johnny who just loves vampires, and grandma wants to see his big smile.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734

    i personally think #9496 will go well with #9516 and #75005.

    #9496 is more likely to get a boost from #75020.

    Based on its own merits: It has two desirable unique minifigures in Lando and Boba Fett. Lando is unlikely to be seen again until the Jabba theme is refreshed. Boba Fett is unlikely to be seen again until Cloud City or Slave I is updated. There are also a few parts that are unique to the set.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ People already know this, but on any set a lot can depend on how many are produced and for how long. I see them making a ton of #9496. Will it be another Luke's Landspeeder? (as I look at my stack that goes to the ceiling, he he)
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    VC will probably do as well as any other castle. Maybe even better because it's fairly original in design. I predict $175-200 by Oct. 2014.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited May 2013

    I could have sworn last night I read @LegoFanTexas confessing he was being played for fools. Now the post is gone... If you do not believe that big brother is watching you there is your proof. ;)

    Not "Big Brother" in the Orwellian sense, but yes, parts of the conversation veered too far from the intent of this forum -- even for this thread. I left some of the more general comments, but the ones that were colored with political opinion were removed. I think the reasoning should be well understood, especially for some of the principals involved, but if you would like to discuss it further, you may PM me.
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    thanks for the insight. @binaryeye
    so what would be an optimum value for #9496 ? $75? in retirement?
    binaryeye said:

    i personally think #9496 will go well with #9516 and #75005.

    #9496 is more likely to get a boost from #75020.

    Based on its own merits: It has two desirable unique minifigures in Lando and Boba Fett. Lando is unlikely to be seen again until the Jabba theme is refreshed. Boba Fett is unlikely to be seen again until Cloud City or Slave I is updated. There are also a few parts that are unique to the set.
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    @cloaked7
    when you talk about luke's landspeeder :P how high you think its going? $60?
    cloaked7 said:

    ^ People already know this, but on any set a lot can depend on how many are produced and for how long. I see them making a ton of #9496. Will it be another Luke's Landspeeder? (as I look at my stack that goes to the ceiling, he he)

  • DevastatorDevastator Member Posts: 66
    adam2eden said:

    BN sends out another 20% for members

    BN = Barnes and Noble?
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited May 2013
    ^ Good question. I think it will take a long time to sell for $60. It was a WalMart exclusive and a limited edition. Initially I thought it would be out for about 9 mths, as with similar sets. (Zombies, anyone?) Then, it ended up being out for years, so everyone (and their brother) had opportunity to buy it. That's the big unknown with all sets. How long will it be out? Some buck the trend and make early exits (again, Zombies) or hang around forever (DS, FB, Luke's Landspeeder).

    They are selling on eBay now for $35 w/ free shipping, so that means pretty much zero profit after fees and shipping. I will get around to listing mine for $35-40 and be glad to be rid of them. Maybe hold them until Nov and maybe get $45? At least I won't lose anything on them.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    As long as you were able to get the Landspeeder for $12.50 or less, you'll do fine. It may take a little bit of time, but it's at least an easy set to store. I believe it has been said on here before, but it remains a great value because it is 1) an iconic ship 2) has 5 popular minifigures in one set. Great gift for a kid just getting into Star Wars. I think I ended up with 25 of them and could have probably had 50, but I wanted to spend money on other sets too.
  • BlueMoonUSABlueMoonUSA Member Posts: 116
    I'm hoping that the glow-in-the-dark version of the VC will do extremely well in the long run. I believe these were phased out in December. I'm not entirely sure though just how common knowledge it is that there are actually 2 versions of this set. Maybe they'll both just appreciate in unison together, but I'd like to think the 1st edition would become sought after.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404

    I'm hoping that the glow-in-the-dark version of the VC will do extremely well in the long run. I believe these were phased out in December. I'm not entirely sure though just how common knowledge it is that there are actually 2 versions of this set. Maybe they'll both just appreciate in unison together, but I'd like to think the 1st edition would become sought after.

    Okay...do tell. Did these two sets have different numbers? What's the telltale difference? Thanks in advance!
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432

    I'm hoping that the glow-in-the-dark version of the VC will do extremely well in the long run. I believe these were phased out in December. I'm not entirely sure though just how common knowledge it is that there are actually 2 versions of this set. Maybe they'll both just appreciate in unison together, but I'd like to think the 1st edition would become sought after.

    Okay...do tell. Did these two sets have different numbers? What's the telltale difference? Thanks in advance!
    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/10130/monster-fighter-sets-no-longer-have-all-the-same-glow-in-the-dark-features
  • BlueMoonUSABlueMoonUSA Member Posts: 116
    ^ What he said :) I'm wondering too whether the glow version of the mummy figure might be collectable. I'm not really knolwedgable nor much of a mini collector myself, so I could be way off base with the collectability of glow-in-the-dark lego.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    To summarize that other thread, Lego swapped out the glow printing/stickers with non-glowing versions on MF sets Vampyre Castle (stickers), Hearse (roof sticker) and Mummy (mummy fig). Molded glow in the dark things (mummy's horse, vampire head, etc.) were not changed. They didn't appear to change the set numbers or anything else except the UPC did change and the box art showing the once-glowing elements as no longer glowing, so it's easy to differentiate the boxes at a glance. So, if you're looking to buy one online, make sure you see the actual box of the item, and not a stock photo.

    @BlueMoonUSA is probably right, as the "first editions" will be worth more.
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