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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    ^8547 prices recovered well after the RRP for EV3 was revealed.

    I have £300 to "invest" tonight. Campers with Iron man figure, Logging truck from amazon france (£70) or MF VC from Amazon UK (£60): All look like very good bets to me. Anymore winners available right now? Cheers

  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    JamesJT said:

    ^8547 prices recovered well after the RRP for EV3 was revealed.

    I have £300 to "invest" tonight. Campers with Iron man figure, Logging truck from amazon france (£70) or MF VC from Amazon UK (£60): All look like very good bets to me. Anymore winners available right now? Cheers

    You use the term "invest" well in that case MF VC as this will retire before Logging truck. Will be plenty more opportunities for Logging truck. £60 is a good price still for MF VC, but Im out as I got my 12 for 40 each some time back ;-)

  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    stevemack, Yes, you should sell the Mindstorms set you have before the new one is released in the fall. The upcoming set will have new features like connectivity with mobile devices and I think it will decrease the value of the older models. I've also seen a few of those show up the last few days at amazon for full retail of 279.99, and they're gone quickly, like most hard-to-find items. If you sell and ship you'd better pay extra and get signature confirmation. Too expensive to have it setting on someone's doorstep unattended...
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Denver, CO, USAMember Posts: 1,673
    Mindstorm NXT 2.0 is back on Amazon.com at RRP, sold by Amazon...
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Orc Forge 9476 has been out of stock at target's site for almost a week. Any chance this one's biting the dust early to make room for new sets? I've seen a few in their stores, they're not being discounted. [email protected] H has them. Looks like Shelob Attacks and the small Gandalf set will soon be history; I see them on clearance at some stores. I never see a Helm's Deep at WMart any more. In my area, stores quit ordering them a long time ago. Finally, I know a WMart within driving distance that's got 17 Weathertops (it's retired) but they're still at full retail, $60, which seems awful steep for this set. Wish they'd clear 'em out at 50% off, but they'll probably start at 30% off, and I'll have to sweat over buying at that point or holding out for a deeper discount and risking others buying them all up. Looks like Helms Deep and Mines of Moria have longer to run, but the rest of wave 1 will soon be history. Orc Forge is the wild card.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,174
    Orc Forge is a Target exclusive, but until it is gone from LEGO site I would not put much stock into it.
    Any exclusives should be watched, but for every 'limo and helicopter' set there is a 'Cad Bane Speeder' set...
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    ^^ Orc Forge will get an aftermarket uptick with Orthanc coming out, and it being an exclusive still, IMHO.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Part of what caused Limo and Helicopter to go up was the 6 month lifespan, as much as it being an exclusive.

    Look at Zombies, yes it was a Target exclusive, but even more it was out less than 6 months.
    madforLEGO
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    jasor said:

    ^^ Orc Forge will get an aftermarket uptick with Orthanc coming out, and it being an exclusive still, IMHO.

    I think this is debatable. I'd agree that more people might want it to add it to their Orthanc set. On the other hand others who would have needed it for the once exclusive helmets and shields with the white hand print might now let it pass.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    How about the set with the shortest lifespan?

    Having done practically zero research, this one comes to mind. (And it could easily return this holiday season, making the point moot).

    21 days.

    http://www.brickset.com/detail/?set=40034-1
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 931
    Although the big LOTR Tower is going to be lego exclusive at first, I presume it will reach normal shops eventually?
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    prevere said:

    How about the set with the shortest lifespan?

    Having done practically zero research, this one comes to mind. (And it could easily return this holiday season, making the point moot).

    21 days.

    http://www.brickset.com/detail/?set=40034-1

    i think you have to exclude seasonal/promotional/limited items in any such list.

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^Yeah. You're probably right. Has to be a "regular or licensed" set available globally. Zombies, Market Street and Ice Dragon were all short.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    It's a strange mindset for such sets that have become a commodity. I have a Zombies set that remains in pristine condition, yet come Halloween, I'll likely open it to help expand our holiday scene because it's a cool set. I suppose I have a $100 bill sitting there, but then again I look at it as the $20 bill I spent when I picked it up at Target last year.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited May 2013
    ^ He he.
    Look at table, see $100.
    Turn away.
    Turn back.
    Look at table, see $20.

    I understand very well. Oh, so well! :-) I am the same way when I look at my UCS Falcon. Am I looking at $2,000 or $350?
    sidersdd
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    tensor said:

    It's a strange mindset for such sets that have become a commodity. I have a Zombies set that remains in pristine condition, yet come Halloween, I'll likely open it to help expand our holiday scene because it's a cool set. I suppose I have a $100 bill sitting there, but then again I look at it as the $20 bill I spent when I picked it up at Target last year.

    Wish to god id bought the two that were on sale in Argos for 24.99 :(

    I remember looking at them on the clearence section bit, oh well i guess you just never know
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited May 2013

    tensor said:

    It's a strange mindset for such sets that have become a commodity. I have a Zombies set that remains in pristine condition, yet come Halloween, I'll likely open it to help expand our holiday scene because it's a cool set. I suppose I have a $100 bill sitting there, but then again I look at it as the $20 bill I spent when I picked it up at Target last year.

    Wish to god id bought the two that were on sale in Argos for 24.99 :(

    I remember looking at them on the clearence section bit, oh well i guess you just never know
    I like to think of it this way, for every Zombies I may have left on the clearance rack, there were probably 10 Rise of the Sphinx's that I also left. And so, all is right with the world.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    And currently, 10 Speedorz vs. 1 Vampyre Castle...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    cloaked7 said:

    I understand very well. Oh, so well! :-) I am the same way when I look at my UCS Falcon. Am I looking at $2,000 or $350?

    Whatever helps you sleep at night. :)

    In truth, you're looking at $2,000. What you paid for something means nothing, what it will sell for to a willing buyer, today, is what it is worth.

    If you got that UCS Falcon for free, does that make it worthless? :)

    Of course, people (including myself) often play tricks with our brains to come to the answer we want. But I sold my UCS Falcon when someone put $2,000 on the table. For that amount of money, I can be without that 20lb pile of plastic bricks. :)

    "What a piece of junk!"
    dragonhawkpharmjod
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    You are NOT goading me into an inane Star Wars quote this time. Even though I want to ;)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I don't know if I can bring myself to sell my UCS Falcon. The box was damaged, but everything inside is ok.
    My wife grabbed the last Zombies set they had at Target (bless her soul) I love the set, but I'll take $100+ for it any day.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    You are NOT goading me into an inane Star Wars quote this time. Even though I want to ;)

    Wait, so you're saying that I shot first? :)
    Pitfall69
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited May 2013

    Of course, people (including myself) often play tricks with our brains to come to the answer we want. But I sold my UCS Falcon when someone put $2,000 on the table. For that amount of money, I can be without that 20lb pile of plastic bricks. :)

    Just call me a sentimental old fool. :-) Not sure if I'll ever sell my UCS Falcon. Just something about having that quintessential set that I only paid $350 for. :-)

    When you get right down to it NONE of the LEGO sets I have are worth keeping. I should sell ALL of them. They're just plastic. I could sell my whole inventory and buy something that's really worth something. Like gold or silver. :-) Prices are down now, so it's a great time to buy.

    Also, I'm an accountant. So, the Falcon is still on my books at $350. It won't be worth $2,000 until I sell it for $2,000. Or, did I just get my FIFO and LIFO mixed up? :-)
    Geddes
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    edited May 2013
    cloaked7 said:

    Also, I'm an accountant. So, the Falcon is still on my books at $350. It won't be worth $2,000 until I sell it for $2,000. Or, did I just get my FIFO and LIFO mixed up? :-)

    You're an accountant and don't know what mark to market rules are? :)

    I guess if I never try and sell my original GM shares, then they are still worth the $20 a share I paid for them, right? :)
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    I'm going to hand my sealed UCS Falcon down to my grand kids one day. It'll be an heirloom.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited May 2013
    Nah, I'm not using any of those new fancy accounting principles on my LEGO inventory. FIFO works just fine. :-) I already told you I was a sentimental old fool! :-)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^Must...resist..."old fool"...must...resist
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    sidersdd said:

    I'm going to hand my sealed UCS Falcon down to my grand kids one day. It'll be an heirloom.

    but one day the tape seals are gunna dry up and fall off and it'll be no longer sealed, break that seal while you still can :D :D :D
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432

    sidersdd said:

    I'm going to hand my sealed UCS Falcon down to my grand kids one day. It'll be an heirloom.

    but one day the tape seals are gunna dry up and fall off and it'll be no longer sealed, break that seal while you still can :D :D :D
    Yeah, maybe just the box will be the heirloom. It alone is worth about what I paid for the falcon.
  • pillpodpillpod Member Posts: 273
    I didn't want to create a new post for this question, so I decided to come here:

    During the holidays, will the Winter Village sets be on sale? Or will they most likely be at retail price?
  • thorniethornie Member Posts: 245
    edited May 2013
    I have a question regarding selling retired sets... As I've stated many times before, I'm no reseller, just a hobbyist. I do however have a good amount of sealed retired sets that I've never built due to time/space issues. Any way, I'm trying to widdle down my collection by selling some of my MISB retired sets and I noticed ebay is absolutely flooded with stock of pretty much everything. Are you resellers finding it hard to move stock with so much competition? I remember when I sold my Indiana Jones collection, there was hardly anyone selling those sets. Did everyone in the last year or so jump on the reseller bandwagon? Doesn't that drive prices way down?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    thornie said:

    I noticed ebay is absolutely flooded with stock of pretty much everything. Are you resellers finding it hard to move stock with so much competition? I remember when I sold my Indiana Jones collection, there was hardly anyone selling those sets. Did everyone in the last year or so jump on the reseller bandwagon? Doesn't that drive prices way down?

    Yes, my inventory is twice was it was this time last year and sales are down by 10% vs. last year, the difference is noticible, which is why I've said before I'm considering moving on to something else.

    Yes, it does feel that everyone and their brother is doing this now. It isn't true of course, but there are more people doing it than last year and with more inventory.

    It won't drive prices way down, but it does depress them a bit. My average sale is still about the same as it was last year, but there are fewer of them because I'm waiting out the lower priced sellers.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,834
    thornie said:

    I have a question regarding selling retired sets... As I've stated many times before, I'm no reseller, just a hobbyist. I do however have a good amount of sealed retired sets that I've never built due to time/space issues. Any way, I'm trying to widdle down my collection by selling some of my MISB retired sets and I noticed ebay is absolutely flooded with stock of pretty much everything. Are you resellers finding it hard to move stock with so much competition? I remember when I sold my Indiana Jones collection, there was hardly anyone selling those sets. Did everyone in the last year or so jump on the reseller bandwagon? Doesn't that drive prices way down?

    Yeah, and some people will quickly flip on ebay $50 sets for $60 thinking they are making a profit, especially if they bought too many and realise they need the money.
    cloaked7
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    Not checked in on this thread for a long time, but a quick check of ebay shows that ebay uk really is flooded with all manner of sets from the last couple of years. I don't reckon reselling is as easy as some people think..
    legoprods
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    edited May 2013
    ^^ I imagine this will happen quite frequently in the near future with the rise of newbie sellers. The good ones will realize this very very quickly and adjust accordingly. Unfortunately, there will be too many who won't see this until 2 or 3 months down the road
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    thornie said:

    Are you resellers finding it hard to move stock with so much competition? I remember when I sold my Indiana Jones collection, there was hardly anyone selling those sets. Did everyone in the last year or so jump on the reseller bandwagon? Doesn't that drive prices way down?

    Most seem content to give ebay the lion's share and sell their quality stock for meager profits only a few months after retirement. It happens every year and is probably an indicator of poor cashflow management. What we have left is a mountain of poor sets that will take an eternity to move. As with any other form of investing patience brings rewards. Good luck.
  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237
    thornie said:

    I'm trying to widdle down my collection

    A bit late but I think that would seriously devalue the sets.
    leego76dragonhawkthorniejasonord69aPenkid11FollowsClosely
  • legogregorslegogregors Member Posts: 402
    It seems like the B-wing is a good example. Some initial activity but I saw one on ebay go for around $125 shipped that actually included the hoth han and yoda poster. Unless the seller really likes Chima, this was not worth their while and they probably lost money on the sale. It is harder to pick sure winners with the increase in resellers and limited demand.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Not an expert reseller, but even a novice like me understands that you have to hold sets for awhile to get a decent return. Of course there are exceptions for every rule, but on average I would expect to have to hold a set about a year after EOLing.

    This coming from a guy sitting on a pile of Indiana Jones sets I purchased new when they were available...so much for the average of a year. ;-)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    This coming from a guy sitting on a pile of Indiana Jones sets I purchased new when they were available...so much for the average of a year. ;-)

    Why?

    Are you expecting them to go up more? Sell those things! :)
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    The Indy sets I had did quite well, but I didn't buy into the whole theme. The set that had the plane in it (forget the name, Escape from Cairo?) did extremely well for me.

    I don't buy totally into any theme. I pick sets that I think will do well and buy several of those instead of a few of all.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited May 2013



    Why?

    Are you expecting them to go up more? Sell those things! :)

    I agree wholeheartedly...but it's all a matter of having the time. I plan to have my daughter, who is going to college this year, start selling sets as a summer job to fund her education. That was the goal all along.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    ^ The Indy theme is the one that I wish I would of not missed out on. One of the first sets I purchased coming out of my Dark Age in early 2012 was Temple Escape. Unfortunately it was missing a bunch of pieces (I bought used off of ebay). I need to go through it again and see if it's possible to bricklink.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Well, the Fed is printing 85billion a month. If your sets aren't keeping up with inflation, then there is no need to hang on to them. You are just losing money.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    cloaked7 said:

    The Indy sets I had did quite well, but I didn't buy into the whole theme. The set that had the plane in it (forget the name, Escape from Cairo?) did extremely well for me.

    I don't buy totally into any theme. I pick sets that I think will do well and buy several of those instead of a few of all.

    Peril in Peru?

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    Well, the Fed is printing 85billion a month. If your sets aren't keeping up with inflation, then there is no need to hang on to them. You are just losing money.

    But... But... I thought our government said there wasn't any inflation!

    They wouldn't lie to us, would they?
    FollowsCloselyFatMatt
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I believe the current rate of inflation is 1.06%
    LegoFanTexas
  • wilburwilbur Member Posts: 49
    No they don't lie they plead the 5th instead
    Pitfall69LegoFanTexascloaked7pharmjodFarmer_JohndougtsFollowsCloselyBrickDaddychrisdojo
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited May 2013
    ^^Yeah, what I meant was an account with a higher % than the current rate of inflation.

    Yeah, I didn't understand all the Facebook posts about pleading the 5th.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I'm alittle off today. The 3 month old was crying all day and now the 3 year old is crying.
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