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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • FenrisAkashiFenrisAkashi Member Posts: 242
    edited May 2013
    I personally really like the train and picked up two when amazon had them for 57.
    I think it will do reasonably well as its a very unique train and a very unique set in general. I see all the monster fighters sets doing well EOL.
    Its a fun series thats just "adult" enough for everyone to enjoy and display.

    unfortunately I am in Portland and there are a lot of AFOLs/resellers here and fewer Wal Marts, anytime ANY set gets clearanced the shelves are empty almost instantly.
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    At $34 I would have bought every one I found, even if I didn't think it was going to be huge. That is a great price for the set and would definitely make me feel like I had gotten my money's worth.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Thinking the Ghostie will follow the track of the Toy Story train. Horizon is a better bet.
  • FenrisAkashiFenrisAkashi Member Posts: 242
    prevere said:

    Thinking the Ghostie will follow the track of the Toy Story train. Horizon is a better bet.

    I'm curious what your reasoning behind a comparison like this is...

    Toy Story as I understand it did not do well. Its also a licensed line whose appeal is a bit low to begin with,

    Monster Fighters as a line has done reasonably well and is fairly universally liked.

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited May 2013
    ^ Toy Story/Ghost Train are really not comparable with Horizon. Horizon is a much better "classic" train set...GT is a more collectible oddity train (like the Holiday Train), which is why it might do well.
  • CircleKCircleK Member Posts: 1,055
    My area WM still had 6 Ghost Trains left @ $54 so I picked up one. That's all the further I am willing to commit on that one though. I would have loved to have nabbed the V. Castle at a clearance price but they have been long gone from my area. The best I have found so far is around $80 on eBay.

  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    where are you @CircleK
    i can't find any in my area :(
    CircleK said:

    My area WM still had 6 Ghost Trains left @ $54 so I picked up one. That's all the further I am willing to commit on that one though. I would have loved to have nabbed the V. Castle at a clearance price but they have been long gone from my area. The best I have found so far is around $80 on eBay.

  • CircleKCircleK Member Posts: 1,055
    Columbus, OH. I found them in a Wallymart about 45 minutes away. Actually, my sis found them and told me about it. She's a shopaholic so I trained her to always always always check the lego isle and clearance racks. She's done really well so far and actually nabbed me some good deals on a couple LOTR sets and some decent polys. God love her.

    Now if only my wife was so receptive to my addic... Err... I mean hobby.
    Dougoutindigobox
  • CircleKCircleK Member Posts: 1,055
    Brickarmor said:

    The sets are both playable and displayable (maybe not Crazy Scientist).

    I actually love the Crazy Scientist set bc I see it as the perfect compliment to Vampyre's Castle. If I was a kid that's how I would do it anyways. I would lay out it all out in a way that made it appear that the lab was just another part of the castle itself. I love the entire MF series as a whole though. The HH was actually the set that brought me to Lego. I was never really a fan before that, even as a child. My block of choice was Construx in those days. Of which I still have a billion of and still enjoy building with.

  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,987
    CircleK said:

    Brickarmor said:

    The sets are both playable and displayable (maybe not Crazy Scientist).

    I actually love the Crazy Scientist set bc I see it as the perfect compliment to Vampyre's Castle. If I was a kid that's how I would do it anyways. I would lay out it all out in a way that made it appear that the lab was just another part of the castle itself. I love the entire MF series as a whole though. The HH was actually the set that brought me to Lego. I was never really a fan before that, even as a child. My block of choice was Construx in those days. Of which I still have a billion of and still enjoy building with.

    These were the two sets my 6 year old was most interested in. (and the HH)
    It was the play value and characters that pulled him in.
    The ghost train did not peak his interest. The train has too much of one color and the characters were not as interesting to him.
    (My bro was similar with Construx.)

  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    @CircleK
    thanks. lucky man..
    CircleK said:

    Columbus, OH. I found them in a Wallymart about 45 minutes away. Actually, my sis found them and told me about it. She's a shopaholic so I trained her to always always always check the lego isle and clearance racks. She's done really well so far and actually nabbed me some good deals on a couple LOTR sets and some decent polys. God love her.

    Now if only my wife was so receptive to my addic... Err... I mean hobby.

  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    edited May 2013
    FenrisAkashi said:

    prevere said:

    Thinking the Ghostie will follow the track of the Toy Story train. Horizon is a better bet.

    I'm curious what your reasoning behind a comparison like this is...

    Toy Story as I understand it did not do well. Its also a licensed line whose appeal is a bit low to begin with,

    Monster Fighters as a line has done reasonably well and is fairly universally liked.

    Just plain old gut instinct. Trains that fit the "city landscape" style have a large appeal. Ones that don't fit the "cargo or passenger" models are more risky.
  • The_MackThe_Mack Member Posts: 239
    ^ You don't set up the annual halloween train around the pumpkin?
    prevereBrickDaddy
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    That actually sounds pretty cool. Ha!
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Member Posts: 3,639
    Can the Ghost Train be fitted for 9V track and motor?
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Member Posts: 1,659
    Use a large oval pumpkin, cut in half, empty, cut a D shape hole and each side.. voila, you have a nice tunnel for you train :)

    @BrickDancer, yes but lot of changes also the wheels of the cars are not train compatible...
  • The_MackThe_Mack Member Posts: 239
    BrickDancer said:

    Can the Ghost Train be fitted for 9V track and motor?

    The ghost train engine does fit the track, the cars need some modification to use the the proper wheels. You can always build a pusher/pull car with a train motor with 9V or PF. I think it's the easiest way to motorize a train, that isn't designed to be.

  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Farmer_John said:

    ^ Toy Story/Ghost Train are really not comparable with Horizon. Horizon is a much better "classic" train set...GT is a more collectible oddity train (like the Holiday Train), which is why it might do well.

    If you are comparing GT to 10173 you are in for a world of hurt IMO.

  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    I don't see the Ghost Train doing all that great long term. It's been sitting around on clearance for months and overall I don't personally care for it.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Member Posts: 3,639
    The_Mack said:

    BrickDancer said:

    Can the Ghost Train be fitted for 9V track and motor?

    The ghost train engine does fit the track, the cars need some modification to use the the proper wheels. You can always build a pusher/pull car with a train motor with 9V or PF. I think it's the easiest way to motorize a train, that isn't designed to be.

    Thanks @ColoradoBricks and @The_Mack ! Sounds like a bit of investigation and work is in order to see how easy it is to motorize this one. Very good suggestion on adding another car Mack.
  • CircleKCircleK Member Posts: 1,055
    I felt the Ghost Train was over priced. It was a little over .10 a piece at RRP, but it didn't contain any exclusive minifigures. The kid in me also thinks that the ghost just aren't as exciting as zombies, werewolfs and vampires. Everytime I look at that set I think to myself: "You should have been a Ghost Ship with a hauntingly awesome captain". So there were plenty of reasons to ignore it. As a set though, I like it much better than #9465 The Zombies. IMO, the only redeaming quality of The Zombies was the Bride and Groom minifigures. I was obviously way wrong on that one... This probably matters very little since it's all opinion based, but I do think the GT contains the best vehicle for the Fighters. I really like the plane. I wouldn't load my closet up with them and I certainly wouldn't pay retail, but I thought nabbing one @ $54 bucks was safe enough.

    If it's a stinker then I will build it and place it on the mantle during Halloween, much to my wife's disgust.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    The flapping wings on the carts are ingenious. But also unfortunately one of those things you don't know about until you build it.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    Anybody else's heart skip a beat, just a little, from the Lego Shop email today? "Battle ghosts and monsters..." etc. For a split second I thought it was introducing new MF sets, but apparently they're just trying to prepare them for a clear out by calling them "hard to find" now. "Retiring Soon" will probably come by June.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,837
    IMO Ghost Train will not do as well as a train like Horizon for one main reason. It is not designed for a standard LEGO train track.. It is why the Time twister train goes for very little.
    For a train to be 'sought after' it needs to work with standard LEGO track, whether it be 4.5v, 12v, 9V, PF, etc.
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    I think the best one can hope for with the Ghost Train is to be able to sell it around or a bit above RRP in 1-2 years after retirement. That might be good enough if you get it for a sufficiently large discount.

    When it's on sale it is also a good set for parting out, especially for train fans. I know I'll keep a set or two of the black train wheels for myself.
  • juggles7juggles7 Member Posts: 451
    I've been picking up every Vampyre Castle I stumble across, esp. those at WalMart for 30% off. I think the set will retire soon and appreciate in value. But, I think the availability of the Haunted House might keep it from appreciating too much. I mean why spend anywhere near, say 150 for a Castle, when the Haunted House would still be available for 180? The HH is a much better set, right? I'd like to learn more about the similarities and differences between the 2 sets. Anyone want to weigh in on this?
  • CircleKCircleK Member Posts: 1,055
    juggles7 said:

    I've been picking up every Vampyre Castle I stumble across, esp. those at WalMart for 30% off. I think the set will retire soon and appreciate in value. But, I think the availability of the Haunted House might keep it from appreciating too much. I mean why spend anywhere near, say 150 for a Castle, when the Haunted House would still be available for 180? The HH is a much better set, right? I'd like to learn more about the similarities and differences between the 2 sets. Anyone want to weigh in on this?

    You're fortunate to still have access to the VC, especially at clearance prices. I really don't get it. It seems like everything warms the shelves in my area except that one set. It has long been out of stock at every store around me and it was sold out well before the clearance markdowns came about. I swear - I probably saw 10 different pics of birthday parties on Facebook with that set in the background. It was extremely popular in my neck of the woods.

    I think you're right as long as the HH is available it will probably keep the price of the VC at bay just for the reason you listed. There really aren't any similarities between the two sets with the exception of two minifigs (Lord Vampire & his Bride) and the fact that both sets contain exclusive figures. The HH really doesn't fit in the MF theme honestly. There are no moonstones and none of the "Fighters" or their vehicles. The HH is more along the lines of a spooky modular - lots of display value and detail, but low on play features. It is an amazing set though. My favorite set by far.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    doriansdad said:

    If you are comparing GT to 10173 you are in for a world of hurt IMO.

    Actually, I am in a world of hurt...but it has more to do with my lower back than anything else. ;-)
  • PoochyPoochy Member Posts: 479
    ^ From carrying all those Lego boxes, I presume :).
  • chuxtoyboxchuxtoybox Member Posts: 711
    I rediscovered one of my old Lego catalogs from the early summer of 2011 and inside is the Death Star set 10188. I just looked up the year it was actually released and that was 2008! So what I'm wondering is, why haven't they retired this set yet? I assume they have to be making more of them. And if they are still producing this set then why couldn't they bring back the Falcon everybody wants or why did they retire that set in the first place?
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,506
    This question may have been asked once..
    or twice.

    or thrice..

    or four times..

    maybe five?
    six
    seven
    8...
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    ...maybe 14?
    Yes, probably 15..
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20 million..

    Approximately 2,000,001 times since the set was first released.

    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/1958/predictions-on-discontinuing-sets-and-their-secondary-market-value#latest

    You'll find everything you need on 10188 in that thread. Although you'll probably walk away with more questions than answers. Frankly, 10188 is a mystery :o)
    madforLEGO
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    10188 isn't a mystery, it continues to sell.

    My local store told me this past weekend that they continue to sell several copies every week. If each store is selling several, and online is selling a few dozen a week, and other places like Amazon are selling a few dozen a week, then overseas is selling a few dozen a week.

    That is hundreds of copies per week, perhaps 500-1000 copies of 10188 every month worldwide.

    Not counting the surge at Christmas, that is about $3.5 million worth of DS a year, but I suspect due to Christmas that set sells $10+ million worth a year, or more, just by itself.

    Why retire it if it continues to sell?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    The Lego set we dare not mention by name.
    madforLEGO
  • DevastatorDevastator Member Posts: 66
    I honestly am not a huge fan of 10188. That set seems all about the playability factor... Still I hope it stays on shelves for a while in case I get the itch. Of course, if it's sales numbers are anywhere near what you're saying, why wouldn't they keep cranking them out.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ 24 minifigs, nearly 4,000 parts, all the scenes from Star Wars and Return of the Jedi on both Death Stars, large spiral bound manual, huge play set with tons of things to do, what isn't to like?

    As for cranking them out, the development cost on this set is clearly long since covered, now it is just the cost to keep printing boxes and manuals and stamping out parts.

    My understanding is that there really isn't anything rare or unique in 10188, unlike UCS Falcon which had a number of parts that were unique to that set, 10188 is just made up of basic parts they already make.

    In that case, the actual cost to keep cranking out copies can't be all that high. And it isn't like they are going to replace it with some other huge battlestation in space. :)

    The only thing that makes sense to replace it would be Cloud City, but it sounds like the Ewok Village is coming next. Perhaps that will be a "combo" playset, starting off for $200 w/ Ewok Village, then next year the second half will be the $200 shield generator/landing platform/secret entrance battle, and they can be combined like Jabba's Palace/Rancor Pit into a $400 set if someone wants it, but it cuts it into a pair of $200 purchases making it easier on people's budgets.

    Then 5 years from now, they can do the big Cloud City playset. :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Pitfall69 said:

    The Lego set we dare not mention by name.

    The first rule about Death Star is that you don't talk about Death Star...
    madforLEGOYellowcastle
  • SirKevbagsSirKevbags Member Posts: 4,027
    If you're a man of a certain age then building 10188 is one huge trip down memory lane. Granted it was the first set I had built in 20 years so I was slow in building anyway but what slowed me more was actually playing with it.

    You put together that trash compactor, discover you're building a sliding door and all of a sudden you're five again watching SW on tv at Christmas.

    Understandably not a popular view in this particular thread but so long as it doesn't restrict the release of new sets I hope they just keep it going to enable more people to enjoy the experience that I did.
    y2joshLegoFanTexasBanditsidersddrichoYellowcastleBrickDancerGothamConstructionCo
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    My 5 year old son now has his eye on the Death Star, it's a lot of set for a 5 year old though.

    I have been waiting for Amazon to have it on sale again as they did last year, I think it was low $300's which meant it could be shipped here for just under $400.

    It might not mater though as Amazon isn't shipping DS to Australia at the moment.
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    juggles7 said:

    I've been picking up every Vampyre Castle I stumble across, esp. those at WalMart for 30% off. I think the set will retire soon and appreciate in value. But, I think the availability of the Haunted House might keep it from appreciating too much. I mean why spend anywhere near, say 150 for a Castle, when the Haunted House would still be available for 180? The HH is a much better set, right? I'd like to learn more about the similarities and differences between the 2 sets. Anyone want to weigh in on this?

    I picked up at load at close to 50% off in the UK. It's a nice set and will increase in value for sure. I'm thinking it won't really jump until the HH retires as well so to really up your profit on the set you might need to keep it for a few years. This depends on if you need the capital/have the space to store it for a few years.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    edited May 2013
    Just a quick update on the B-Wing:

    Lego S@H shows that it is in stock, but back up to $200. No mention of retirement. Just "Hard to Find". Amazon currently has it for $153.57 for those that want it but missed out on the May 4th sale. For resellers who gobbled up five at a time: Tough luck. Current ebay prices are hovering around $170 with free shipping. The box is big and heavy so shipping will be expensive. Not much of a return if you were looking for a quick flip. Long term it will do well, but that is a year or so off.

    So is the B-Wing officially retired? Or is it just in limbo? My guess is that there is still inventory out there. Enough that Lego is going to hold out on any more sales and supply will just dwindle out over the next few months.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,837
    My guess is that the B Wing lasts as long as most other LEGO sets.. til the end of the year. I only got one, as I do not have much space to be hording large 'UCS' type SW sets at this time. I also figured they'd be back.
    That 'sold out' was more likely sold out.. at THAT price. It was nice of LEGO to put these up as a back-order for the 50% off on Saturday after they sold out at that price initially, but I'm guessing they were selling limited quantities at that price.
    I say they are most likely around until at least the end of the year.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 889
    mathew said:

    Just a quick update on the B-Wing:

    Lego S@H shows that it is in stock, but back up to $200. No mention of retirement. Just "Hard to Find". Amazon currently has it for $153.57 for those that want it but missed out on the May 4th sale. For resellers who gobbled up five at a time: Tough luck. Current ebay prices are hovering around $170 with free shipping. The box is big and heavy so shipping will be expensive. Not much of a return if you were looking for a quick flip. Long term it will do well, but that is a year or so off.

    Tough luck? Why?? $99 is an incredible price for this set (minus cost of Han + chima if you choose to sell it), whether it EOLs now or in a year. Current ebay prices are irrelevant. No competent reseller is looking to sell this anytime soon. This was the reseller buy of the year, not 'tough luck'.
    FollowsCloselyitsnotme
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    edited May 2013
    ^ Tough luck for those that bought five thinking they could flip them for easy money. Sure, if you want to sit on them for a year or two.

    It's funny how you guys have OCD with the Death Star EOL'ing, but strangely are ho-hum about the possibility that the B-Wing hasn't been discontinued.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Mathew, just curious, but why do you hate money so much? Do you turn down raises at work? Do you hate profit?

    Will you come mow my lawn for free? :)
    FatMatt
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    ^ Why would I hate money? Who really hates money? Come on...
  • LootefiskLootefisk Member Posts: 67
    I believe LFT's point is if you can buy some thing and flip it for $40-$50 profit how is that 'tough luck'?
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Bandit said:

    No competent reseller is looking to sell this anytime soon. This was the reseller buy of the year, not 'tough luck'.

    mathew did state 'Not much of a return if you were looking for a quick flip.'

    I agree with both of you. And, you may even agree with each other. Just think of 'if you were looking for a quick flip' and 'no competent reseller' as the same thing, which they are.

  • SirKevbagsSirKevbags Member Posts: 4,027
    mathew said:

    ^ Why would I hate money? Who really hates money? Come on...

    Depending on my mood I sometimes prefer chocolate money.

  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    edited May 2013
    ^ Thing is that you're not making $40-50 profit. Shipping the B-Wing, assuming that you double box it is going to cost upwards of $20 or possibly more. Figure in ebay and paypal fees along with your own personal time and you probably have knocked any profit out of the picture. LFT is an expert on this so I would assume he would agree with me.

    So in other words, the resellers have flooded the market looking to make a quick buck. Then there are those who unfortunately missed out because of the said resellers gobbling up inventory to make the quick buck. Then there is the possibility that the B-Wing isn't discontinued, at least yet.

    If you don't want to discuss this then that's fine. Go back to your Mr. God feely-feeler and Death Star immortality discussions.
  • joel4motionjoel4motion Member Posts: 959
    ignore the above^^^
    Gavin83 said:

    juggles7 said:

    I've been picking up every Vampyre Castle I stumble across, esp. those at WalMart for 30% off. I think the set will retire soon and appreciate in value. But, I think the availability of the Haunted House might keep it from appreciating too much. I mean why spend anywhere near, say 150 for a Castle, when the Haunted House would still be available for 180? The HH is a much better set, right? I'd like to learn more about the similarities and differences between the 2 sets. Anyone want to weigh in on this?

    I picked up at load at close to 50% off in the UK. It's a nice set and will increase in value for sure. I'm thinking it won't really jump until the HH retires as well so to really up your profit on the set you might need to keep it for a few years. This depends on if you need the capital/have the space to store it for a few years.
    close to 50% off? where from? best ive seen is 25% off at asda.
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