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Comments
It's very suspicious that on the US SH site the Bakery is only sold out while the Post Office is actually labelled retired.
10199 winter toy shop december 2011 CORRECT
10193 medieval market village december 2012 CORRECT
10197 fire brigade december 2012 (INCORRECT)
10216 winter village bakery december 2012 (CORRECT according to Lego)
10219 maersk train december 2013 (INCORRECT - ACTUALLY RETIRED A YEAR EARLIER)
10211 grand emporium december 2013 (STILL COULD BE CORRECT)
10214 tower bridge december 2013 (extended due to popularity) (STILL COULD BE CORRECT)
10217 diagon alley december 2013 (INCORRECT - ACTUALLY RETIRED A YEAR EARLIER)
10218 pet shop december 2013 (STILL COULD BE CORRECT)
So for those who are saying this list is completely wrong (@jockosjungle, @hardrada), here is what Brickset's database says..
In the list I count three that are correct, three that are incorrect, one that is likely correct (Winter Village Bakery - based on everything Lego has said), and three that verdict is still out on (but that seem reasonable). This list is better than any other lists I've seen posted 6 months in advance (unless you can point me to another more "reliable" list somewhere). Lego reserves the rights to change their minds on when a set is EOL'd (based on sales, etc.), so that could explain sets that were EOL'd early or left to continue.
The point of this post is to validate that the Winter Village themed sets are usually available for three seasons and then gone. I see no evidence to contradict that schedule, so purchase accordingly.
Also I'm challenging your claim that the WVB retired according to LEGO. Where did LEGO officially claim that? The only info I see now is that LEGO actually claims the Post Office to be retired and not the Bakery. At least on the US S@H site.
But I'm happy that you have successfully established a pattern based on one example (that of the Toy Shop). Now when was it when LEGO broke the release/EOL pattern of the modulars at only the 3rd one making the suggested/expected pattern true for only the first two?
#10199 was out 2009, 2010 and in 2011, it went on sale BF and was gone soon after Xmas
#10216 was out 2010, 2011 and in 2012, it was gone around November
#10222 was out 2011, 2012 and is currently fate unknown
#10229 was out 2012 and is currently fate unknown
There was only one set (10199) that was available for three full holiday seasons. 10216 went out before December even hit, so it was less than three seasons. The fates of 10222 and 10229 are still unknown.
The point of this post is to state without ambiguity that there is nothing but ambiguity and speculation when it comes to some of these things, so purchase accordingly.
By the way, the guy's "one example" was correct 6 months ahead of time and his second example was correct one and one-half ahead of his posting...unless you can provide me with a link to purchase a Bakery set from Lego today. I'm not following your logic my friend.
#10199 was out 2009, 2010 and in 2011, it went on sale BF and was gone soon after Xmas
#10216 was out 2010, 2011 and in 2012, it was gone around November
#10222 was out 2011, 2012 and is currently fate unknown
#10229 was out 2012 and is currently fate unknown
There was only one set (10199) that was available for three full holiday seasons. 10216 went out before December even hit, so it was less than three seasons. The fates of 10222 and 10229 are still unknown.
The point of this post is to state without ambiguity that there is nothing but ambiguity and speculation when it comes to some of these things, so purchase accordingly.
The logic is sound my friend...I stated seasons...as in Christmas seasons; not years. The Winter Village Toy Shop went on sale in October of 2009 and off sale during the BF sale of 2011. There are technically three seasons the TS was available: 2009, 2010 and 2011. Black Friday sales are part of the winter/Christmas season. For the WVB, it was released in October 2010 and was EOL'd December 2012...so yes...Lego had it available for three Christmas seasons...2010, 2011 and 2012. Just because a set isn't available through Christmas doesn't mean it wasn't available for the Christmas season.
Also it doesn't matter whether the info in that post was authentic back in 2011 or not. I'd actually side with the opinion that it was correct insider information. But EOL plans do change so its weight as a proof that it's actually the Bakery that is gone is quite negligible. You can't claim that because in mid-2011 the Bakery was slated for end of 2012 retiring it was surely retired. There's no certainty to such a statement. If we accept the authenticity of that posting then it is the best proof for how EOL plans can change even in one year.
Anyhow this isn't leading anywhere so onto my next question:
Has a set ever bounced back from being labelled 'Retired product' before?
Whatever man, it doesn't really matter because plain and simple, nothing you or I write will change the fact that nobody around here knows what will be available this Winter.
In either case, we shall both see in a few months... If the WVPO is actually gone for good (which I doubt), then I should be able to get a decent price this winter season for my extras. But I'm not holding my breath.
Availability at LEGO.com
United States 03 Oct 10 - 02 Dec 12
$54.99
United Kingdom 03 Oct 10 - 03 Dec 12
£50.99
Both WVTS and WVB were available from TLG at least through the BF sales...the WVB being even longer...unless Brickset is wrong.
As for your second comment, I wholeheartedly agree...especially with the sets that refuse to die...FB and DS.
Okay...I'm really done commenting now...really...I mean it this time. ;-)
There's only one certain thing. That the Post Office is labelled retired. It can of course simply be a mistake, but this is the hardest proof we have so far.
http://www.walmart.com/ip/LEGO-Star-Wars-Luke-s-Landspeeder/13377932
I would not have expected Luke's Landspeeder to be still in stock at Walmart.com at this point.
http://www.ecommercebytes.com/
Btw what is everyone's thought about Kingdoms Joust? Is it likely to retire this year or might it be kept on to complement the new Castle theme?
Sheesh, it has been out almost 2 years, if you want it, buy the darn thing.
Nothing discontinues in spring/summer other than "series" sets, which is why I always find these discussions comical. It's pointless to discuss whether or not a set will discontinue in July. The answer is it won't.
People are confuse a sets discontinuation with a poor selling set that is readily available past the holidays.
BTW, it is June, not July, that is the EOL date on the 1H sets. Must all be in my mind then. :)
8065, 8110, 8261, 8264, 8291, 8295, 8270, 8271, 8272, 8273, 8275, etc.
According to Brickset, here are a few City sets that were discontinued in the Spring/Summer:
3365, 3366, 3367, 3368, 3648, 7279, 7286, 7288, 7498, etc.
Many of these sets sell for a decent premium. To your point, not as many sets are EOL'd during the Spring/Summer timeframe; however, there are still many that are...
I understand how most people can have a set EOL before they know it. I planned on getting more Unimogs, but got side tracked with other sets and other things. And, I follow this forum and LEGOS closely. I guess not close enough! For the average person it would be easy for a set to be on their radar and then off of it. Next thing they know it's retired and they panic. And, pay over RRP for the set.
It's been said many times. But, if you want a set for yourself make a point (if at all possible) to get it a few months after it comes out. If so, you should be able to get it below RRP somewhere. Then, you don't have to worry about it. Or, worse case you don't buy it early and forget to buy it and it EOL's and is out of stock too. Most sets are out for a couple of years. But, some for only 6 months or so. A current example for me is the Indy car. I know I want it for myself, so I've already gotten one. I may pick up more for resell (I think it will resell well), but maybe I miss out on that (like I did the Unimog). But, at least I got my personal copy.
http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/10175/database-problem#latest
If LEGO is still using the 'Retiring Soon' label one would think #8110 would get that designation before it EOL'd.
Regardless of the EOL date it's probably a good wake up call. If I wanted a Unimog, or more Unimogs, I'd be getting them now! I bet it will be gone quickly when, and if, it gets a Retiring Soon label. :-) The largest Technic set ever. Right? Will it turn out to be the Technic version of the UCS Falcon? :-)
But it will be a slow haul and a slow seller. Look at #8285 as a great example.
#8275 is another good example, but I expect that one to be redone in a year or two.
I find it so refreshing to read comments from those far more knowledgeable than the people who have been contributing to this thread for the last 236 pages.
telling @Farmer_John ' he can do better than that? Show the guy a bit of respect. He started this thread that has kept us all entertained since 2011.
I think most of the bigger technic will do well now that only TRU can have them (at least in US) and BOGO50 sales do not come around often.