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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited March 2013
    Yup, same here. Not expecting it to be any better this year.

    Best to keep my expectations low to moderate and be gladly surprised rather than except something great and be disappointed. :-)

    Also, if I recall correctly, someone has the inside scoop a few days ahead of time and shares it. And, the info it typically pretty accurate. If that happens this year we'll know way before midnight and will be able to make plans.
    margot
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited March 2013
    BF was really bad, but I still found a way to spend that earmarked cash on Lego. And this ... is exactly what Lego knows.

    They've cut back greatly on their Sales and Deals Page the past 24 months give or take a year. We used to always get the old holiday sets on clearance, but not since last Easter have we seen that (minus the brick bubble ornaments).

    But free shipping and cool freebies continue, and I'm glad for that.
    FollowsClosely
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited March 2013
    This year is going to be a tough one. Lego has really cut back on the sales so you will need to be quick to jump on brief walmart sales and amazon price match. Not a whole lot of good resale sets to EOL this year either....I am thinking my best strategy is to hold onto last years crop of 10212, 10217, 10219, 8043, 4842, 10193 etc for another year and resell xmas 2014.....so far I am looking at VW Van, Tower Bridge and FB.....what else am I missing?
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,072
    ^If the Sopwith Camel EOLs at the end of the year that will be worth getting to hang on to for 2014/15 especially if Walmart and Amazon have closeout deals on them. That puts it at the year and a half or so of shelf life we saw with the Maersk Train so it could easily go out the door then.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,258

    I really think that pre-Chinese Lego factory sets will do better than average down the road.

    I understand the sentiment of the prediction here, but it relies on two premises yet to be proven, and which we won't know until it hits the ground.

    1. Asian sets will not be differently packaged (box, art, language, etc)
    2. The Chinese parts will be of inferior quality.

    Clearly, if 1 is false and 2 is true, the problem (generally speaking) will reside with the parts not the sets. But if 2 is false, 1 is irrelevant. Fingers crossed, TLG gets it right and the Chinese elements are neither inferior nor waaaaay overproduced. Oh, and the workers are treated fairly and the plant isn't a toxic blight on the environment. We can hope, right? In TLG We Trust.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923

    ^If the Sopwith Camel EOLs at the end of the year that will be worth getting to hang on to for 2014/15 especially if Walmart and Amazon have closeout deals on them. That puts it at the year and a half or so of shelf life we saw with the Maersk Train so it could easily go out the door then.

    I'm not big on the Sopwith, since the original can still be purchased for nearly retail.
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,079
    ^I´m pretty sure the Sopwith will perform very well, it contains a lot of Rare/unique parts, some even in high quantity! And (to me) it looks way better than the first version!
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    edited March 2013
    ^If you are buying it used. The original Sopwith Camel retailed for about $50 in the US. New sealed sets are selling on average for $150 on Brick Link as well as some recent ebay sales. The new version, having built it, is a really fun build. The use the strings and how the controls all tie together is great. The colors are beautiful and it has almost 300 more pieces than the original making it much more detailed. It may have more of a niche audience but it should still do very well I think. It's definitely one I have on a my radar.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,930

    Oh, and the workers are treated fairly and the plant isn't a toxic blight on the environment. We can hope, right? In TLG We Trust.

    I doubt most people will care about that when purchasing. They don't care about workers rights when it comes to Apple products, so I doubt they will care when it comes to lego.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,233
    Thanos75 said:

    Coming from a comic background I have seen this trend before...in the 90's. It started out great for resellers/dealers...everyone was buying everything...prices started going up and up...most things got to the point where the average /collector was pretty much priced out and most of the sales were dealers selling to eachother. Once they realized they had created a "false" customer base the prices dropped like a rock...nearly taking the whole comic industry with it. I would hate to see the LEGO hobby go through the samething.

    Part of the reason why comics, and baseball cards for that matter, declined is that the industry kept making more and more chase cards, and special cards, special editions of the same stuff and flooded the market with 'collectables'.
    If LEGO does this I will be surprised, and as @dougts points out, there is inherent value in the parts.
    The mods being out longer than anticipated has caused worry for those sets, but as long as there is a limited supply (after all sets are stopped from being produced) and there are people that want those sets (which i think will still be the case) then there will be a market, but like @LegoFanTexas states, there will be lower profit for those reselling.
    Only two people write articles professing the way to make money on something:
    1) Sour grape type that cannot get in on it or are upset that people are banking on it so ruin it for everyone else
    2) Those who made all the money they think they can on the idea, so they make even more by selling others on an idea that is long past its prime.. think of it like a pyramid scam.

    But will it collapse? I think as long is there is a demand and a finite supply of regular LEGO sets then I think it will not be as bad as those collapses, BUT the introduction of 'Mr Gold' I think is the beginning salvo of the final straw of the CMF 'collectable' market. Once you start introducing 'special' this and that expect the worst. Next thing they will have silver coated and bronze coated chase figures as well
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,079
    Personally i think that this "Mr.Gold"figure will be a S10-thing only! To celebrate the 10th series,just like they did with the Chrome Vader/C-3PO for special anniversaries! I don't think that TLG will throw in "chase-figures"from now on in every upcoming series!
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,258
    @CCC They won't, because they never have, but they should.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    CCC said:

    I doubt most people will care about that when purchasing. They don't care about workers rights when it comes to Apple products, so I doubt they will care when it comes to lego.

    When buying a laptop I have no choice but to purchase Chinese supplied components. That said I would gladly pay double or triple to purchase a US made Macbook, Ipad or Iphone. Never going to happen but I can dream....I believe if folks got to see these factories with the walls, barbed wire,the dorms, the pennies per day wages they would shudder at purchasing these items.....no Chinese Lego for me.

    Brickarmor
  • pmercikpmercik Member Posts: 55
    And now there's dilemma with the cheapest ever DS available at Smyths... :)
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,930
    You'd gladly pay treble the price just to buy US made? Maybe apple does need to set up a factory there.
    pharmjod
  • chrisdojochrisdojo Member Posts: 169

    Windfield said:

    Why do you think this is bad for Lego investors? I think the more exposure we as Lego collectors get, the better.

    Take it to its logical conclusion, if there were 10 times as many people reselling, what would happen to aftermarket prices?

    Tell me how this is, in any way at all, a good thing for a reseller (investors)?

    It is great for someone who misses sets and wants to pick them up in the aftermarket at a lower price, but for resellers it is nothing but bad.
    Not everyone that jumps on board to try and "get rich" by reselling LEGO will stay in it for long. It takes time, effort, top notch customer service, and a little savvy-ness on the business side of things (accounting, taxes, etc) to truly be successful. Not to mention rolling the dice on what to actually buy and resell! I suspect many will try, but few will succeed, just as any other market is. Not EVERYONE starts a business in the USA, though it's "easy" to do. Turning a decent profit is another story.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    chrisdojo said:

    Not EVERYONE starts a business in the USA, though it's "easy" to do. Turning a decent profit is another story.

    Yes, this is true, but I continue to be amazed at how many people are willing to go to the trouble to start a business, only to work for almost nothing.

    Many, many people who call themselves "business owners" really just have self-employed jobs. There is no crime in that, if that was the intent, more power to them, it is a perfectly reasonable goal.

    It is just that so many people end up working for next to nothing, it is rather hard to compete with that. Same reason LEGO bricks aren't made in America, we can't compete with the people in Mexico willing to work for a lot less.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    CCC said:

    You'd gladly pay treble the price just to buy US made? Maybe apple does need to set up a factory there.

    Many people say that, but the proof is in the pudding, so to speak.

    When it comes time to take out your wallet, how many people will really step up to the plate?

    A few will, but I suspect when the $499 Chinese iPad is next to the $999 USA iPad and they both do exactly the same thing, most people will shrug and buy the Chinese iPad.

    Not all, but the majority would. Apple is large enough they could try it just to see what would happen. It would be an interesting experiment, that's for sure. :)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited March 2013
    Diggydoes said:

    Personally i think that this "Mr.Gold"figure will be a S10-thing only! To celebrate the 10th series,just like they did with the Chrome Vader/C-3PO for special anniversaries! I don't think that TLG will throw in "chase-figures"from now on in every upcoming series!

    S10 only I agree. But Lego has stepped up the "exclusive" fig offerings through video games, books, tradeshows and other products. Besides tradeshows, the other figs perceived higher value is all over the place.

    And great thoughts on the Sopwith everyone, I appreciate this group's honesty and excellent focus on detail!
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited March 2013
    ^^Buying goods from China is only unavoidable given the current economical circumstances. It was not always the case and it does not necessarily mean it will be like this forever. There are almost 200 countries in the world, some of which are just beginning to industrialize.

    To believe China has the USA, and/or the world as a whole, bent over a barrel forever into the future is false. Things can change if the rest of the world decides they've had enough and there are other viable options. How many hack attacks, IP theft of critical tech like military or space, spying, support of enemy regimes, etc will you let a single country/government get away with before the cheap goods aren't worth the cost difference? And this is before we even get to the human rights issues regarding labor.
  • The_MackThe_Mack Member Posts: 239

    Apple is large enough they could try it just to see what would happen. It would be an interesting experiment, that's for sure. :)

    Be-careful what you wish for...
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/connieguglielmo/2012/12/06/apples-cook-says-some-u-s-manufacturing-will-return-why-android-ipad-rivals-should-pack-it-in/
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,079
    I will def.try to get one of the first chinese produced sets that will be produced! Curious to see how the box will look like with the different asian characters :)
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    CCC said:


    I doubt most people will care about that when purchasing. They don't care about workers rights when it comes to Apple products, so I doubt they will care when it comes to lego.

    You do realize that every consumer electronic device you can possibly buy is made in china in the same or similar factories as the ones Apple uses, right? And likely in lesser conditions than Apple factories, given the scrutiny Apple is forced to deal with... I don't get why people continue to bag on just Apple in this respect. It's an industry wide issue.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    If there's a company you want to get mad at, it would be Samsung. Stole Apple IP to create the Galaxy, all labor and parts come from China at lesser quality factories than Foxxcon, then colluded with the Chinese media on a smear campaign to defame Apple in the fast growing market, got caught red-handed by the public, and now backtracking to cover it up. In the meanwhile, Apple announces a desire to move some manufacturing back to US as a show of support to small businesses here, since they will be working with contractors instead of Apple-owned operations.

    So as @Bandit said, it shouldn't be Apple that gets bashed alone. And if you were to support any of them at all based on personal ethics, who would you rather choose?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    We're way off topic here.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^Par for the course.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,258
    It's not too widely off topic, for the quality of a product tomorrow has immense ramifications for buying today. Granted, it is not slated to open until 2017, and hopefully more and more crucial details will be revealed as pertains to regionally specific production and distribution. As for restructuring the global geopolitical economy, OT I concede. But interesting. And likely to start fights.

    There are only 12 CMF scheduled, correct?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Bandit said:

    I don't get why people continue to bag on just Apple in this respect. It's an industry wide issue.

    For the same reason everyone bags on Walmart when Target and everyone else does the same stuff, large easy target.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,930
    Bandit said:

    CCC said:


    I doubt most people will care about that when purchasing. They don't care about workers rights when it comes to Apple products, so I doubt they will care when it comes to lego.

    You do realize that every consumer electronic device you can possibly buy is made in china in the same or similar factories as the ones Apple uses, right? And likely in lesser conditions than Apple factories, given the scrutiny Apple is forced to deal with... I don't get why people continue to bag on just Apple in this respect. It's an industry wide issue.
    Yeah, it is because everyone bangs on about them, rather than electronics in general. For electronics (apple included), I have not problem with it. If they meet safety standards, I'm fine with it.

    And to show you can always bring manufacture back from China, this one has been all over our local news. Moving production of Chinese food from China to Yorkshire ...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-21775142
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816

    This year is going to be a tough one. Lego has really cut back on the sales so you will need to be quick to jump on brief walmart sales and amazon price match. Not a whole lot of good resale sets to EOL this year either....I am thinking my best strategy is to hold onto last years crop of 10212, 10217, 10219, 8043, 4842, 10193 etc for another year and resell xmas 2014.....so far I am looking at VW Van, Tower Bridge and FB.....what else am I missing?

    ^This. Exactly how I feel, Really can't see what to stock up on. I think you have got to watch the market though rather than just decide to hold for longer. Some sets are all over the place. #10231 peaked ( in the UK ) 2 weeks after EOL.

    12 months ago #10195 was moving for £350, now it's £250. #8038 struggled for £100 at Christmas. I seriously keep thinking about piling in on #10197 whilst double vip points are on as even though I have too many that I have had for too long, it just sings value whilst the price stays the same and everything else increases. I think things have changed so that you can't determine what will make a good return, but rather try and determine what you can't lose on.

  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited March 2013


    Many people say that, but the proof is in the pudding, so to speak.

    When it comes time to take out your wallet, how many people will really step up to the plate?

    A few will, but I suspect when the $499 Chinese iPad is next to the $999 USA iPad and they both do exactly the same thing, most people will shrug and buy the Chinese iPad.

    Well if the marketing gurus had half a brain they would differentiate them in some way - slightly different design or engraving.....early access to software and items on iTunes....special free app day on 4th July etc....of course it will never happen...too much $$$ to be made overseas...Steve Jobs to the President Feb 2011 "Those jobs are gone, and they’re not coming back." Once machines can manufacture cheaper than Chinese labor then manufacturing will return, but there will be few jobs created in the process. What will become of China?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,930


    Many people say that, but the proof is in the pudding, so to speak.

    When it comes time to take out your wallet, how many people will really step up to the plate?

    A few will, but I suspect when the $499 Chinese iPad is next to the $999 USA iPad and they both do exactly the same thing, most people will shrug and buy the Chinese iPad.

    Well if the marketing gurus had half a brain they would differentiate them in some way - slightly different design or engraving.....early access to software and items on iTunes....special free app day on 4th July etc....of course it will never happen...too much $$$ to be made overseas...Steve Jobs to the President Feb 2011 "Those jobs are gone, and they’re not coming back." Once machines can manufacture cheaper than Chinese labor then manufacturing will return, but there will be few jobs created in the process. What will become of China?
    Why would they want to differentiate them, if they are the same machine made by their company? The only difference is personal - whether you want to pay twice the price for a model made at home compared to exactly the same model abroad. The company has no need to reward people buying a home built one through a token offering. If they want to do politics and produce them at home rather than abroad, they have the final say. Bring manufacturing home and charge more.

    On lego topic, if I can buy two sets made in China by lego for the same price as one made in Hungary (I'm European) or even Denmark, I'd go for the two made in China every day. If they meet lego's strict manufacturing quality, that is good enough for me.
  • FenrisAkashiFenrisAkashi Member Posts: 242


    There are only 12 CMF scheduled, correct?

    Is this confirmed anywhere?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,930


    There are only 12 CMF scheduled, correct?

    Is this confirmed anywhere?
    No. And I somehow doubt lego would ever give out that information.
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 158
    edited March 2013
    Has anyone ever knowingly sold lego sets to buyers that were likely scam artists just to get rid of product? I know if you ship with tracking, you'll EVENTUALLY get your money back from paypal....any thoughts?

    Example: I had a set that I had priced very high. It was bought by a probably scammer. I'd still like to unload the set.
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,395
    ^Maybe I'm tired and reading your question wrong... but why would anyone ever sell to someone they knew was a scam artist in the first place?
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 158
    If the buyer is paypal verified and you ship with tracking, you'll get your money.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Why would Lego stop a popular series as the CMF's? Series 10 seems to be their strongest offering in recent series. Even without Mr. Gold.

    I still think the Chinese topic should have its own thread. As far as an IPad made in the US and one made in China. Cannon Camera does something similar. My brother n law says thatiif you buy a Cannon Camera of Amazon or another site and it doesn't say Cannon USA you will not have the warranty. He says people come into his camera shop wanting to have their camera sent out to get fixed and he tells them "sorry, I can't help you" He also says there is a company that makes camera bags. They have some that are made in China and ones made here, by the same company. The Chinese ones are cheaper than the US made ones and mire times than not, people choose the Chinese made bag.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    @jcb193

    Where in the world did that question come from?
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 158
    As I said before...I had a lego set that was priced very high. It was bought by a likely scammer. I'm thinking of shipping it (be glad to be rid of the set, and will eventually get my paypal money). Right?
  • FenrisAkashiFenrisAkashi Member Posts: 242
    CCC said:


    No. And I somehow doubt lego would ever give out that information.

    I didnt think so but I was curious as I had never heard such a thing before.
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,395
    edited March 2013
    ^What makes you think he is a scammer?

    And no, I would never, ever... ever... EVER ship a set to a person I thought was a scammer. You are not 100% guaranteed to get your money back.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,930
    jcb193 said:

    As I said before...I had a lego set that was priced very high. It was bought by a likely scammer. I'm thinking of shipping it (be glad to be rid of the set, and will eventually get my paypal money). Right?

    Not necessarily, especially if it is obviously a scam.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    You also need to remember that a scammer is very rarely using their own account/card. There are some that just file fraudulent chargebacks, but a lot of time they're using hacked accounts. So in wittingly selling a set to someone who you believe is scamming you, you're probably hurting someone else, as the money eventually has to come from somewhere.
    FatMatt
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 158
    samiam391 said:

    ^What makes you think he is a scammer?

    I'm guessing he is a scammer because he:
    1.) grossly overpaid
    2.) has no feedback
    3.) emailed me right away to see if I shipped

  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited March 2013
    Regarding the grossly overpaid part, an Ebay transaction is a legal contract. You're really on the hook here to deliver the item as you agreed, or you may suffer consequences (negative feedback, etc.).

    I don't AT ALL like shipping to people with low/zero feedback, but Ebay doesn't let you discriminate like that. You are likely covered by Paypal's seller protection, but you must make sure you see the green "OK to ship" checkbox on the transaction and you follow all their rules (shipping only to address on their Paypal account, provide tracking, etc.).

    Btw, the three points you used there describe an ignorant newbie Ebay user as well, so it might not actually be a scam.
    FatMattdragonhawkmadforLEGO
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    I had four scammers buy from me in December. I was quite confident they were likely scammers before I shipped the order. But what can I do? There is nothing to report because they haven't done anything yet. If I don't ship or try to cancel it can hurt my top rated discount status an feedback rating. My only choice was to ship and protect myself as best I could. I eventually won all four cases but I had $1000 locked up for weeks in the meantime
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,258
    ^That stinks, sorry to hear that. In early January I sold 3 or 4 big sets to buyers with 0-1 feedback and was very worried. For the QAR I contacted them before shipping to clarify their situation. The 45 days have passed now for all of them, so...
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,395
    edited March 2013
    "^What makes you think he is a scammer?

    I'm guessing he is a scammer because he:
    1.) grossly overpaid
    2.) has no feedback
    3.) emailed me right away to see if I shipped"

    Yes, probably a scammer. But as already mentioned, you are under contract with him too ship the item he has paid for.

    Just do everything you can to protect yourself in the possibility of having to open a case:
    -Get insurance
    -Get tracking
    -Signature confirmation
    -Proof of delivery
    -Take pictures of the item before you ship it out
    -Take pictures of the packaging
    -Take pictures of the address label
    -Take a few more pictures of the set itself

    And for future reference, when selling such a high priced item, put the setting on it that they must have more than 0 feedback. You may get scammers with 2 or so feedback, but it should limit them some, if only a little.

  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 158
    Actually, I was mistaken. I confused him with another likely scammer (Russian buyer). This guy actually has one positive feedback, but the feedback says "warning, this buyer will chargeback." What to do?
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