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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,435
    Of course until the next time ;)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    y2josh said:

    @LegoFanTexas - Here again, I disagree.

    And that is ok. :) There are many ways to scramble an egg, I have my way of doing it, others have their ways, and that is what makes life interesting. :)

    I may know a thing or two about scrambling eggs, but that doesn't make me the world's exclusive authority on scrambled eggs. :)
  • GoldchainsGoldchains Member Posts: 795
    I make amazing scrambled eggs. I add some gruyere and some paprika and mix it in before I cook them. Good stuff.
    y2josh
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,435
    ^I pity the fool that can't scramble an egg
  • GoldchainsGoldchains Member Posts: 795
    Don't be gettin' on no plane, fool. *Drinks tall glass of Milk* Ahhh! *Thud*
    LegoFanTexasBumblepants
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    y2josh said:

    I think on the shipping cost, especially, you're grabbing at a number, since they're averaging about $270 shipped

    I wasn't trying to debate what they were actually selling for, rather what formula I use to easily figure what it would take to double my money. If your $95 example was based on current prices, then yes, I see your point on that.

    But in that regard, 4842 is the exception and not the rule. 10217 retailed for $20 more, was discounted less often, and is still selling for less than 4842.

    The trick is to pick the winners, which is harder to do on a regular basis. :)
    y2josh said:

    A hobby seller is typically going to use either the box they received it in

    I agree with you.
    y2josh said:

    most people on this board aren't making a living off of selling LEGO, nor are they storing more than a bedroom's closet full of sets, so I think it's more important to note that, for the majority who simply want to fund their hobby, a tidy profit can already be made from this particular set.

    I agree completely on this specific set, and there are others that will do similar numbers (Black Pearl is a good example).

    However most sets don't perform this well and what happens if you end up with the losers?

    For your small seller who is just trying to self-fund, they aren't going to account for all that. But it is worth noting that just selling for twice what you paid often nets far less than most people think. A lot of people don't keep funds separate, so don't really notice that they are working for peanuts. The three big expenses come out at different times from different places. eBay takes their cut at the end of the month in a lump sum, PayPal takes their cut as the money comes in, and then you pay the shipping separately.

    How many people honestly add up the costs and figure their gross profit, even ignoring all other costs?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    Don't be gettin' on no plane, fool. *Drinks tall glass of Milk* Ahhh! *Thud*

    I got no time for the jibba-jabba.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^I pity the fool that can't scramble an egg

    Hannibal is on the jazz.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited March 2013

    How many people honestly add up the costs and figure their gross profit, even ignoring all other costs?

    Really?

    Maybe I give people too much credit, but I would think that just about everybody who actually goes out and buys stock with the intent to re-sell would know what fee's they have to pay, I know I do.

    Yeah, my time I don’t worry about, which I know some people would. I also know that it takes no longer than 1 hour for me to buy, list, pack & send any set I sell. So even if I was to only make $20 on a set I sell I think that it is ok as I enjoy doing it. I do aim for at least $35 though.
    y2josh
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,435
    ^That's really all that matters. Lego is to be enjoyed mostly.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    Basta said:

    Maybe I give people too much credit, but I would think that just about everybody who actually goes out and buys stock with the intent to re-sell would know what fee's they have to pay, I know I do.

    I think your 'I'm going to buy this to resell later' type users are actually a lot more likely to check this than the average Joe running an eBay store. I get most of the figures and statues I sell directly from the manufacturers, and I see people with eBay stores selling them at prices so close to cost they have to be losing money (or dealing in stolen goods, I suppose).

    The door swings both ways, of course, and there are just as many buyers who seem to do no research whatsoever on what they're buying. So I guess it evens out in the end.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited March 2013
    Couple of things I'll add,

    I'm sure that there are some out there that go to eBay for the first time and sell an item without realising what the fees are, but I would assume that after 1 or 2 sales they would work out if they are making money or not. I can't see too many people continuing to sell on eBay if they only sell items at 10% above cost.

    95% of what I sell is current or just EOL sets. I don’t hold on to most of my stock for longer than it takes me to sell it. So I may get 5 copies of a set, it may take 2 weeks to get shipped to me and then it will take another 4 to 6 weeks to sell them all. It’s not like I have $150-$200 sets sitting in my cupboard for 2 or 3 years, to then sell for just $35 profit.

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,921
    Basta said:

    I can't see too many people continuing to sell on eBay if they only sell items at 10% above cost.

    Actually I think you're going to see a lot of this in the next few years. People dumping sets for minimal profit, because of that darn "USA Today article" or little birdie that said making money on Lego is fast easy money.

    For example, there will be those who bought FB and Minecraft, who may dump even after EOL.

    dragonhawk
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    While you guys were debating that, DS was EOLed.....wait, no it wasnt.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    To change the discussion a bit. What is your take on the Chima line ? The first generation Chima speedorz sets are 20% off at [email protected] Is this an indication of future performance or is this a great time to stock up ?

    Also does anyone remember if TLG discounted first generation / red Ninjago spinners only a few months after release ?
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Asking adults about Chima?! O_o

    TV show hasn't kicked in yet, got another TV "event" this Wednesday to pique more interest, summer will be telling what kids want for Xmas. I can honestly say that more than half of the Lego I've seen folks buy at retailers has been Chima. The fate of the Speedorz I'd say has to do with how attached kids get to the characters, probably with Crominus and Leonidas at the top. Probably.
  • UKtsumiUKtsumi Member Posts: 626
    alot of "dumping" going on at the moment on ebay and amazon.... postage is about to double (from £2.20 up to £5.30) on the sets above 8cm height.
    -I "dumped" loads of mine but am struggling to get my money back this week as everyone is doing the same.... (friday and monday are bank holidays - last day to post Sat!) time to pick up a bargain!!!!


  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,921
    Chima isn't cracking the top 10 on Amazon or top 5 on Lego.com today (Minecraft #1 on both). Cragger's command ship is the highest ranked around 15 or so, but it's also been steadily discounted for awhile.

    A small sampling, but I haven't heard much of all about Chima from the kids I see at my daughter's school or in the neighborhood. It's SW #1, Ninjago #2, Town/City #3.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited March 2013
    I've noticed a dip in prices on ebay. I was trying to sell my Shuttle Expedition, but I think I'll wait for the Holidays... or build it.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,798
    I think the 20% off Speedorz is more of an attempted 'hook' than a 'crap these aren't selling'. Hoping that if they get those in the hands of a lot of kids they will have Cragger Command Ships and Lion Fortresses on the top of their Christmas list at the end of the year.

    Remember, Ninjago wasn't a stud right out of the gate, I think Chima will continue to pick up steam especially when wave 2 hits and tv show gets lots of airtime.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    I remember the Ninjago taking a while to catch on. My initial thoughts on Chima is that its not for me, but I missed out on stocking up on Ninjago as it was not for me either.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    Would the current double VIP campaign at [email protected] be the best time to purchase a few Haunted Houses? Is it too early still in it's lifecycle to start stocking up?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    The best time to get it is when you can get it at 15% off > $150 purchase & free shipping which could happen 5/4.

    I don't know if I would count on it though, 2012 was horrid for May the 4th and Black Friday deals :(
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    it's pretty early in the cycle I would say - this thing will be around a couple more years. My guess is at some point you will see better than 10% - you know you can already get 15% at LEGO stores, and you even know when you can get it at that price. Amazon and others will likely have much better sales even at some point down the road.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    @Brickarmor
    I automatically try to come up with a new topic whenever I see a post on DS being EOLd ;)

    I was curious what the others think on this line since supposedly TLG used lessons learned from Ninjago to come up with the line. I did not follow it close enough when Ninjago came out so I was not privy to how it was received in the beginning.

    @prevere That is pretty constent with my own small sampling of my son and his friends. He is pretty loyal to Ninjago especially knowing it is coming back next year.

    @Bumblepants discounts as hooks perfectly make sense
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,921
    There will be a moment in time when Amazon will have the HH @ $150 or better. It may happen briefly, or be a week-long event. I would save my pennies for that moment.

    Of course - you better be able to have them shipped to your mom, brother, uncle Freddy, and nephew little Billy if you want a big supply.

    P.S. - Make sure little Billy knows they aren't for him.
    MathBuilder
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    edited March 2013
    Sounds like waiting is the best option right now then, thanks :) I personally only have 1 Amazon account so whatever limits they set in place that is what I will purchase. My limit for any set is no more than 5 (although I make a few exceptions for sets like Minecraft which are very easy to store). That way I can spread my funds across multiple sets and not heavily invest in something that may not pan out. Granted the HH looks like a guaranteed hit, but having too much of any set still makes me nervous ;)
  • WindfieldWindfield USAMember Posts: 33
    @prevere, is this the article you meant?
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2012/12/27/lego-investors-profit/1732525/

    also, check out this one from Wired.com:
    http://www.wired.com/geekdad/2012/12/get-rich-investing-in-lego/

    Why do you think this is bad for Lego investors? I think the more exposure we as Lego collectors get, the better.

    Of course there is always a risk of people flooding into this niche market and crashing the prices momentarily because Supply will be greater than Demand. But in the long term, I think it will create a well sustained buy and sell ratio for all of us.

    I actually encouraged one of my good buddies to jump into Lego collecting and investing, and he is now in! He is not only a seller, but a buyer also, which is good.

    That's just my opinion of it, of course. :)
    chrisdojo
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited March 2013
    I really think that pre-Chinese Lego factory sets will do better than average down the road. Perhaps not a large premium, but one all the same. Whether it be politics, lead poisoning, or poor quality, non-Chinese Lego products will do better. As for the Chinese Lego plant only producing for the locals, I'll believe it when I see it. Ebay will be flooded with the Chinese sets once the factory opens because insiders will be able to get better margins on resale.

    Hence, resellers may be able to sell the sets they have today (non-Chinese) at some level of premium (theoretically).

    JMO...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Windfield said:

    Why do you think this is bad for Lego investors? I think the more exposure we as Lego collectors get, the better.

    Take it to its logical conclusion, if there were 10 times as many people reselling, what would happen to aftermarket prices?

    Tell me how this is, in any way at all, a good thing for a reseller (investors)?

    It is great for someone who misses sets and wants to pick them up in the aftermarket at a lower price, but for resellers it is nothing but bad.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    edited March 2013

    Windfield said:

    Why do you think this is bad for Lego investors? I think the more exposure we as Lego collectors get, the better.

    Take it to its logical conclusion, if there were 10 times as many people reselling, what would happen to aftermarket prices?

    Tell me how this is, in any way at all, a good thing for a reseller (investors)?

    It is great for someone who misses sets and wants to pick them up in the aftermarket at a lower price, but for resellers it is nothing but bad.
    An example of what can happen re-selling chinese toys (albiet not lego) : 12-18Months Months back I was selling Disney Pixar Transforming Wall e, for £65 - £75 each - they cost me £12 each at the time in the UK, so I though a nice tidy profit and kept on looking for new stock - paying up to £30 a time. Then the moment came where there was an influx of a chinese element - that being a reproduction type run of the product, which meant that folks could buy for £25 each...killing my re-selling potential. Luckily I had got rid of my stock by the time this happened, but it just shows what can happen.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Windfield said:


    I actually encouraged one of my good buddies to jump into Lego collecting and investing, and he is now in! He is not only a seller, but a buyer also, which is good.

    That's just my opinion of it, of course. :)

    Another way to look at it...

    Lets say you're a professional reseller and you have $1 Million in inventory. Suddenly an influx of new resellers comes in and drags down prices by 20%.

    This will cost you $200,000 in lost income.

    Would you then still think it is great that everyone and their brother starts selling?
    madforLEGO
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited March 2013
    It's not necessarily all bad. We're assuming that the newbies would flood the market, but which market exactly?

    One good thing is that these would-be resellers might finally realize that it's not their bag and have inventory that they eventually decide to just dump. And by dump, I mean all at once instead of piecemealing it out one set at a time to the end user. Who better to pick up some deals on dumped lots than other resellers?

    This is all speculation, but possible nevertheless, and it certainly isn't a new concept. Google "wholesale" and "retail" and go to town.
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,977
    wagnerml2 said:

    I remember the Ninjago taking a while to catch on. My initial thoughts on Chima is that its not for me, but I missed out on stocking up on Ninjago as it was not for me either.

    I suspect the red boxes/skeletons impacted the first wave of Ninjago. I did not care for it at all, and it seemed fairly 'dark' just at first glance in a store. My son had negative interest.

    Cue the snakes.

    His interest sky-rocketed the moment he saw the first box at the store, and then the show continued it. It was at that point I finally looked at it more.

    As for Chima... no interest. It is hard to say if this is representative for the age group, or if the show will hook him further. Maybe next year's wave will pull him in more.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    My Doomsday Prepping for the bottoming out of aftermarket sets amounts to having emergency part out space and storage available.
    y2josh
  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,120
    Coming from a comic background I have seen this trend before...in the 90's. It started out great for resellers/dealers...everyone was buying everything...prices started going up and up...most things got to the point where the average /collector was pretty much priced out and most of the sales were dealers selling to eachother. Once they realized they had created a "false" customer base the prices dropped like a rock...nearly taking the whole comic industry with it. I would hate to see the LEGO hobby go through the samething.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    ^Then better close your eyes...
  • epyon396epyon396 Member Posts: 268
    Thanos75 said:

    Coming from a comic background I have seen this trend before...in the 90's. It started out great for resellers/dealers...everyone was buying everything...prices started going up and up...most things got to the point where the average /collector was pretty much priced out and most of the sales were dealers selling to eachother. Once they realized they had created a "false" customer base the prices dropped like a rock...nearly taking the whole comic industry with it. I would hate to see the LEGO hobby go through the samething.

    ...stop talking like that. You're scaring me.
    I've been afraid of that happening with retro games (SNES games are insane right now). My collection is worth about $20k currently and if the market collapses, nothing on this planet could save me from the wife.
  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,120
    I really think that your current LEGO collection will never go down in worth. Actually I think all LEGO prices are about to skyrocket...more and more people are getting into the reselling side of the hobby. They will buy up everything they can get their hands on driving the prices up....a wise man will sell at that point.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    edited March 2013
    ^^SNES games are a lot different as you can't really 'stock up' on them at any kind of reasonable rate (unless you're buying up every copy of NHL '95 in the hopes of it suddenly enjoying a renaissance). Your Chrono Triggers, your Secret of Manas, your Final Fantasy IIs and IIIs... you can't easily buy those to horde anymore, so there's no real danger of a sudden influx of product ruining that market.

    Of course, there's no real danger in the LEGO aftermarket being 'ruined,' either. The 'safe bets' may have diminishing returns, and you may have to hold sets a bit longer while the bandwagoners are about, but if you happen to be sitting on a handful of Fire Brigades or Death Stars, you're not going to lose money unless you're someone who thought reselling LEGO was the key to making a quick buck - in which case you didn't do your research to begin with and I have no sympathy for you anyway. :D
    epyon396
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    the difference of course is this:

    if the comic book loses it's value, you are left with the value of the components: which is paper. pretty much worthless.
    if a LEGO set loses it's value, you are left with the value of it's components: X number of LEGO parts and pieces, which are compatible with all other LEGO parts and pieces made for the past 60 years or for the foreseeable future.

    Unless you bought at post-EOL valuation prices, you would be hard-pressed to lose much actual money over cost. You are losing the potential gain, not the price paid.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    I vote that we talk about SNES for 3 pages.

    Again.
    FollowsCloselyy2joshTitus
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,435
    Please no.

    I also don't want to talk about baseball cards, comic books, beanie babies or action figures and how they compare to Lego.
    Titus
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited March 2013
    I'm concerned, but not overly so, with new resellers coming into the LEGO market. For one, most won't know what they're doing. It requires a lot more than just buying any LEGO set at RRP and holding it for a few months to make a good profit. You need a good idea of what to buy, when to buy it, how much to buy it for, how many to buy, how long to hold it, what to sell it for, how to ship it. And, that's just the obvious aspects. Knowing the nuances of LEGOS and eBay, etc. is not something instantly learned.

    Someone coming into reselling LEGO with limited knowledge and over buying will end up losing money, not making money. And, they'll give up on the get rich scheme quickly.

    But, most importantly for me. Reselling is no where near my main income. It's pretty much mad money. A bit of an interesting challenge. What to buy, when to buy, as I just mentioned. I do pretty good at it. Have many more winners than losers, but my life doesn't depend on reselling LEGOS. It's a fun challenge for me. When it stops being fun I will stop reselling. So if it ends one day - "Don't cry because it's over. Smile because it happened." - Dr Seuss
    Pitfall69cardgenius
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited March 2013
    You forgot "how to store them." If they expect their boxes to remain nice/protected/insured, it's much more complicated that shoving them in a closet, garage or spare room.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,435
    edited March 2013
    I agree. I can't come up with any statistics, but there are plenty if people who have given up on reselling Lego, so those people have opened the door for newbies and a percentage of the newbies will eventually drop out.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    85% of statistics are made up on the spot.
    pharmjodPitfall69FollowsCloselyUKtsumi
  • KumbazoKumbazo Member Posts: 24

    To change the discussion a bit. What is your take on the Chima line ? The first generation Chima speedorz sets are 20% off at [email protected] Is this an indication of future performance or is this a great time to stock up ?

    Also does anyone remember if TLG discounted first generation / red Ninjago spinners only a few months after release ?

    I don't recall a group discount on the spinners when Ninjago first started. I watched all of the Ninjago episodes with my son. They became the Sunday night treat. They were great, but did not get great until season 1, episode 7 "Tick Tock" where Zane discovers he's a nindroid and unlocks his true potential - bonkers, but epic. From there, they could do no wrong (especially the mystery of the Green Ninja). The characters were just good enough to care about. We were skeptical that Lego could re-do their success with Chima. We really disliked the pilot episodes. A very lame premise for an enormous tribal battle.

    That said, the sets (especially the minifigs) are nice and the Speedorz are more fun than the spinners (for us). IF the show gets some substance, it could take off. But we all know ninjas are waaay cooler than lions/eagles/crocs/etc...

  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439

    I really think that pre-Chinese Lego factory sets will do better than average down the road. Perhaps not a large premium, but one all the same. Whether it be politics, lead poisoning, or poor quality, non-Chinese Lego products will do better. As for the Chinese Lego plant only producing for the locals, I'll believe it when I see it. Ebay will be flooded with the Chinese sets once the factory opens because insiders will be able to get better margins on resale.

    Hence, resellers may be able to sell the sets they have today (non-Chinese) at some level of premium (theoretically).

    JMO...

    I don't quite follow your logic. Pre-Chinese factory? Even after that opens sets for NA will be produced in Mexico and sets for EU will be produced in Hungary (and maybe Denmark). And when we are speaking about sets these will be easily identifiable through the languages of the text present on the box. So you'll be able to buy new non-Chinese sets with ease even after that.

    When it comes to parts and minifigs it will be a harder call.
  • margotmargot Member Posts: 2,310
    tensor said:


    I don't know if I would count on it though, 2012 was horrid for May the 4th and Black Friday deals :(

    I'll say, I am still bummed out about Black Friday last year. I wasted a lot of time and energy fretting over getting in on the good deals and there weren't any.

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