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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value
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Comments
TLG should probably focus on less complex themes (HP) since kids drive the bulk of the Lego market. I'm with the previous poster that stated that 2013 is a down year for TLG. I mean, Chima???
On that note, I think LotR would be more sustainable if they just did maybe a single AFOL-oriented release per quarter or so. The buzz around Orthanc already seems to be much more positive than the general sentiment for the rest of the theme.
The main characters of HP being kids, that is a huge part of this.
In addition, Rowling was genius also in creating a series where she did 'classic' kid book technique of removing parents from the picture. In addition, she used a school environment, and incorporated fantasy/real world. These are three things that can further draw kids in.
In addition, look at the reading level of these books. The HP books are at an easier reading compared to the Tolkien books. From an 'interest' level standpoint, just a quick look at Scholastic, marks Tolkien books at an interest level of 9th-12th grade, and Harry Potter as 4th - 8th grade.
I'm not saying younger kids can't and don't read Tolkien. I read it at 10, and so did my daughter, but she also read HP at 8, so Tolkien still came after HP for her.
There are many valid reasons HP appeals more to kids than Tolkien. Many of the same points can be made with Percy Jackson.
Personally, I can't imagine allowing my kids to watch them until they are 16+, they are quite violent, and I try to keep extreme violence away from my kiddos.
The books are fine since a kid can imagine it any way they want.
Yes, I know you're talking about the special editions, which an old-school purist like me can't bear to watch :)
Just my opinion, we are each entitled to our own. :)
When is FB EOLing? :p
http://www.bricklink.com/store.asp?sID=27709&itemID=39119516
Looks like they have a few they are trying to unload at US$119.95.
NOTE: They have some pretty bad feedback. I've heard their service is awful - mostly in regards to the amount of time it takes to ship. And they may have terrible shipping rates. Best bet is to contact them first before placing an order to get squared away.
I've done business with them several times, all I'll say is be sure to pay via PayPal and make sure you don't let the 45 day complaint window pass, you may need it to get your stuff.
I actually think GE will do just as well as FB and maybe a little bit better seeing it is a corner Modular.
Now granted, there have been several chances to buy it for less than RRP, in which case it gets better, but that isn't very impressive all things considered.
To really make selling worthwhile, you need a set to get to 2.5x RRP, that usually doubles your money after expenses, if you paid RRP. Otherwise, if you paid 25% under RRP, you need it to get to 2x RRP to double your money.
I still like my Mark II idea, but they aren't doing that, they'll keep it as-is for awhile longer...
Anyone want a DS? :)
Well, no you don't, because at $250 you'll net $217.50 after 10% eBay fees and 2.9% PayPal fees (well, you will once the rates go up next month anyway). Then take off another $15 in shipping (or more if you don't have a UPS account)
So you pocket $72, which sounds nice, assuming your storage costs are free, your cost of acquisition is nothing, you didn't pay sales tax, and your expenses in processing the set and shipping it are somehow free.
Many small sellers (and some larger ones) don't bother to do the math of what those costs are. Perhaps storage is free because you use a bedroom closet, fair enough. Perhaps you were at the store anyway or it was shipped to you, fair enough. Perhaps you recycled the shipping box and did it on Sunday and don't care about the 10 minutes it took to ship, fair enough.
You can do that for 1 of them, or even 10 of them, which makes for a nice $72 profit.
To do 100 of them requires a lot more than a bedroom closet and 10 minutes on a Sunday. :) If you add all that up, it ends up being more than most people think. Plus then you must pay tax on that $7,200, less expenses.
You might clear $3,500 when all is said and done (expenses and taxes paid), if you paid full retail. Of course, if you got it on clearance for 25% off, then yes, much better, but then that is what I said, if you buy for 25% off, then 2x RRP is fine, but if you pay full retail, then 2.5x RRP is required to make it interesting.
I did after all say that to double your money, you need a set that you paid full retail for to get to 2.5x RRP. If you paid 25% less for 4842, then it cost you $97.49. At $250 selling price, you'll net about $200 after shipping and fees, a bit more if you get discounts, so that is a double.
Which is just what I said. :)
Wasn't trying to ruffle any feathers, just sharing my view of things. :)
Further, processing and shipping aren't free, though that cost is extremely low, and typically the cost of shipping supplies is figured into the charge, but I actually added $3 to seller costs (though, to be fair on this point, I'm using current fees as a model since the new fees don't take effect for another month or so) for someone that wanted to ship double-boxed in Uline cartons (and even that's a cost that's more restricted to someone doing this in bulk). A hobby seller is typically going to use either the box they received it in, or a recycled box, but I was hypothesizing an absolute worst case scenario (now, if you list with free shipping, that's typically a mistake, as you're at the mercy of buyer location for certain options, so actual cost is the way to go there).
That aside, if you view hobby reselling through the lens of a normal business owner, you're going to run into all those extra costs you talk about, but most people on this board aren't making a living off of selling LEGO, nor are they storing more than a bedroom's closet full of sets, so I think it's more important to note that, for the majority who simply want to fund their hobby, a tidy profit can already be made from this particular set.
Knowing this, I think you will understand LFT better