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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711

    Is #21016 Sungnyemun already discontinued? Can't see it for sale anywhere in the UK.

    It was listed on LEGO [email protected] as 'retiring soon' about 30 days ago.
  • tategoitategoi Member Posts: 19
    Anyone read the article on Lego in Bloomberg published yesterday? Lego had toppled Mattel as the most valuable toymaker. It manufactured 45.7 billion bricks last year and enjoyed a healthy 71 pct gross margin.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    So Lego President Jørgen Vig Knudstorp is sitting in big chair today going ...
    45.7 Biiilllllon ...
    jasorColoradoBricksLegoFanTexas
  • ShouldavilleShouldaville Member Posts: 51
    RE: 76000 ...maybe never worth anything, but snag the "Artic" misprint box before they are replaced with the corrected version.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Are they going to replace the "artic" boxes? Somehow I think they'll just let'em ship...
    alzamba
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    ^^ They've already started pushing them out. I do like that the Brickset pic is "Artic" though. haha. I think the set will at least hold it's worth fairly well. Especially with reissue of Mr. Freeze for people's Arkham Asylum's
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    edited March 2013
    The aftermarket value of Superman vs Lex Power Armor will be an indication of how Arctic will do, IMHO.

    Will the value of the misprinted box have value? Maybe a little. Reminds me of the Billy Ripken snafu from Fleer. At least Lego didn't let this happen! "Bad word" error is first, corrected second.
  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,117
    I was at my local B&N today and noticed 6 of the #21016 sets on the shelf. I have never picked up any of the sets from that line but I might have to go back and get one or two .
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432

    Is #21016 Sungnyemun already discontinued? Can't see it for sale anywhere in the UK.

    I bought two of these during a BOGO at TRU about a month ago. A week went by and they supposedly shipped it. In checking the shipping status about a week later it appeared the shipping label was created but it never actually left the warehouse. I called them last week to find out what happened because it still had not shipped. They told me to expect a call from the warehouse as they look into the issue. No call, but I received an email yesterday saying my order was cancelled. Crap.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    sidersdd said:

    ...they supposedly shipped it. In checking the shipping status about a week later it appeared the shipping label was created but it never actually left...

    This is a common annoyance I see when I'm buying stuff on eBay too. But a month? That's just terrible, no matter how big or smaller the vendor.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    Sungnyemun is kind of an odd duck. The Architecture sets seem to hang around forever, but this one has only been out for about a year. Unfortunately, the set itself is rather small and not impressive so I didn't purchase it. B&N stores seem to have a few sitting around (along with misc. Atlantis sets) so if you want it then that would be the best place to go.
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,328
    Perhaps this is just by chance, but today I noticed that there are exactly 10188 sets in the database.

    It seems like all the stars are aligning :-O

    Penkid11BumblepantsGurooo
  • itsnotmeitsnotme Member Posts: 112
    Been a little quiet on this thread lately and thought this might drive some discussion.

    I just refreshed my spreadsheet with current eBay prices (lowest BIN price plus shipping) to measure the performance of some of the sets I purchased over the last nine months that are now generally EOL. Basic snapshot, not perfect - appreciation percentage is gross, doesn't account for fees and shipping costs, etc.

    Results attached. Some observations...

    - QAR is leading the pack
    - Winter Village Bakery surging despite the fact that it's March
    - Red Cargo Train has been a pleasant surprise
    - Granted MMV and IS just EOL'd VERY recently are are doing fine overall, but it really seems that you can feel the effects of reseller stockpiling on these as opposed to a set like the Maersk Train

    ss.jpg 60.8K
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited March 2013
    ^Good work! But it should be correlated with true RRP cost basis for more accurate comparison.

    I always knew QAR would be a fast moving gem post-EOL compared to the BP. Picked up my inventory of a dozen of these at $80 & $50 respectively a year ago. So already at 3xInvestment in 1 year holding. Question is still when to start letting some fly, since I believe both will have very high max prices in long term.

    The Lighthouse is outperforming for a Creator set, especially since it was widely available for a good amount of time. Maersk and the Bakery moved really fast! I'm surprised on the Post Office though, guess folks are playing overly safe on that one. But wheres the Toy Shop in all this?
  • itsnotmeitsnotme Member Posts: 112
    ^ Thanks. While I agree that the right way to talk about lego appreciation broadly over time is relative to RRP, I wanted to show cost basis in this context to reflect the results of purchasing sets at prices where they were recently available (within the last 9 months). While not RRP, this is also not a "low water mark" - it's more of a representation of where a portfolio realistically could have been (and was) constructed. Those are actually my costs bases averaged over multiple copies of each set.

    As for the Toy Shop, I didn't include it because it EOL'd a while back. However, I show a current price based on the standard used above of $195. I actually purchased a few copies on bricklink last summer for $88 including shipping, which works out to 121% gross appreciation to date.
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    The future for the Lighthouse was predicted by LFT a few months ago. It's simple beautiful, unique and timeless and has seldom parts. What needs more?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    Nice work,
    Post office is probably back next year. Which is why I can see it dot doing much on the market.
    Like @BrickDancer says, you have to judge by RRP in terms of how well something is doing, because RRP is a standard, where as a price someone may have found the set as, is not IMO.
    RRP should really be used to determine general lines IMO.
    Then if someone happens to do better than that, more power to them, but I think the true indicator is at RRP as a baseline.
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    itsnotme said:

    Been a little quiet on this thread lately and thought this might drive some discussion.

    I just refreshed my spreadsheet with current eBay prices (lowest BIN price plus shipping) to measure the performance of some of the sets I purchased over the last nine months that are now generally EOL. Basic snapshot, not perfect - appreciation percentage is gross, doesn't account for fees and shipping costs, etc.

    Results attached. Some observations...

    - QAR is leading the pack
    - Winter Village Bakery surging despite the fact that it's March
    - Red Cargo Train has been a pleasant surprise
    - Granted MMV and IS just EOL'd VERY recently are are doing fine overall, but it really seems that you can feel the effects of reseller stockpiling on these as opposed to a set like the Maersk Train

    Is my phone browser cutting something off or did you not include the BIN prices?

    How do you generally decide when to sell?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    edited March 2013
    ^-- click on it, it seems to be cutting off in the preview window.

    When to sell is all subjective. Ask 6 people and you are getting at least 3 different answers.
    It all really depends on how long you can hold them. If the set is likely to still rise fairly quickly, has it peaked in demand for its supply, how many others have bought of that set. Is it a theme that will hold attn (like train or SW), will the set be redone by LEGO and drop the EOL'd price down, What kind of profit are you looking for, etc.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Yes, but something else needs to be in there...

    Those eBay BIN prices are nice, but take eBay and PayPal fees out and the percentage isn't nearly as nice.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Also, why are you paying sales tax?

    If you're buying for resale, you shouldn't be, and you do have to collect sales tax on any instate sales, regardless if you paid tax when you bought the item or not.
  • itsnotmeitsnotme Member Posts: 112

    Yes, but something else needs to be in there...

    Those eBay BIN prices are nice, but take eBay and PayPal fees out and the percentage isn't nearly as nice.

    I noted that fact in my comment. I know that's not my actual gain, just a basic approach to judge how sets have performed relative to one another.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    Interestingly, using similar calculations, #9465 the Zombies can easily take over the 2nd spot on that list. Actual cost $44 ($39.99+10% tax+free shipping per Target red card) and can be sold easily on eBay for $120 (shipping included).
    Now for the ones with the luck or foresights to get it for $33 (assuming 10% tax), their gross ROI % will be higher than QAR
  • itsnotmeitsnotme Member Posts: 112

    Also, why are you paying sales tax?

    If you're buying for resale, you shouldn't be, and you do have to collect sales tax on any instate sales, regardless if you paid tax when you bought the item or not.

    My scale is relatively small - not enough to justify the additional effort of maximizing tax efficiency. Not every purchase involved tax. But If I find a good deal at a local retail store I'll pay the 6% and move on. May take a closer look in the future if my investment grows materially.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited March 2013
    Yup, the lighthouse #5770 was a pretty safe bet. It's at a good price point, is unique, from what I've heard has some hard to find curved red pieces, and will be in demand by boys, girls, and adults. I think the Creator houses are a safer bet than SW's sets.

    I have several lighthouses and should easily double, and maybe triple, my investment. And, do so relatively quickly.

    But, the set I really invested heavy (heavy for me, probably not for LFT) in was the Excavator #8043. I should eventually double my investment in that set too. And, given the cost/selling price of the set it will mean much, much more in total $$ to me than the lighthouse.

    But, I love sets like the lighthouse, because they are so easy to ship. A great Priority Mail set.
  • epyon396epyon396 Member Posts: 268
    My Walmart has some Moria sets on clearance for $50.
    Is it worth picking a few up to hold on to?
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119

    ^-- click on it, it seems to be cutting off in the preview window.

    When to sell is all subjective. Ask 6 people and you are getting at least 3 different answers.
    It all really depends on how long you can hold them. If the set is likely to still rise fairly quickly, has it peaked in demand for its supply, how many others have bought of that set. Is it a theme that will hold attn (like train or SW), will the set be redone by LEGO and drop the EOL'd price down, What kind of profit are you looking for, etc.

    Well that's the point of this thread, right? Take a generic, non seasonally themed set like the lighthouse or the black pearl. Nothing new announced for the rest of the year that would directly impact demand. When would you start letting go? What factors would you consider?

  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    epyon396 said:

    My Walmart has some Moria sets on clearance for $50.
    Is it worth picking a few up to hold on to?

    I think the value of that set is going to be entirely dependent on whether or not they make any more sets with Boromir, as the set itself is generally considered to be awful, even by people less critical of the theme than myself. Legolas is going to be included in the corsair, so he'll still remain a relatively expensive minifig on his own, but I don't think he'll be a factor in driving aftermarket sales on this set.

    Generally speaking, though, the value of the LotR minifigs that aren't army builders has pretty much plummeted since their release last summer, so I think the $50 would be more safely tied up in a couple of Uruk-hai Army sets or even Weathertop for the ringwraiths.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    flyingpig said:

    ^-- click on it, it seems to be cutting off in the preview window.

    When to sell is all subjective. Ask 6 people and you are getting at least 3 different answers.
    It all really depends on how long you can hold them. If the set is likely to still rise fairly quickly, has it peaked in demand for its supply, how many others have bought of that set. Is it a theme that will hold attn (like train or SW), will the set be redone by LEGO and drop the EOL'd price down, What kind of profit are you looking for, etc.

    Well that's the point of this thread, right? Take a generic, non seasonally themed set like the lighthouse or the black pearl. Nothing new announced for the rest of the year that would directly impact demand. When would you start letting go? What factors would you consider?

    For myself, the only factor I consider is at what point I can net double what I paid. That's all I need to fund my hobby and it keeps the amount of time I have to hold a set to a minimum (with the exception of MMV... which I finally just sold off for about $30 of profit a piece... because I was absolutely sick of holding that set).
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited March 2013
    The most important factor for me would be the expected max high price. Some sets tend to be dogs and will see only 1.5-2xRRP, so it makes more sense to flip them early for modest gain or even break even to free up cash flow. But others like QAR, Maersk, EN, IF, IS, DA is a waiting game of seeing how high it can go by withholding supply from the market.

    EN is a good example of this as it was RRP of $100, clearanced out right at EOL by Lego themselves at ~$75. Lots of folks piled on this one hard and the pace of post-EOL climb suffered for it. A few folks started off loading them last summer at $150-175, so a nice tidy doubling of money in half a year. But still quite low in most respects all the way to Christmas where the market got flooded and kept the price level at about $200. Not quite as great a return by this time as some had suggested. Since the new year, EN is picking up steam (pun intended) and about to consistently hit $250. Even once it hits $300 (3xRRP level), I wouldn't be hesitant to let it go because of the price levels of equivalent trains before it (Sante Fe & BNSF). Those were $40 or $35 per engine or cabin, but now going for $280 & $250 roughly for 7xRRP. Assuming EN takes a similar path and eventually gets to 7x, I'll be pleased to let it fly at $500 or better depending on needs versus time to spare.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited March 2013
    A lot of those lighthouses on ebay are going for less than $75. I'm seeing sold listings in the $60-70 range and some of those are including shipping or reduced shipping rates. No way you can ship this set NIB for less than $10 unless it's locally.

    You also forgot to mention 10231. It's close to hitting $170 NIB + s/h. This one should be double RRP by the fall.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    You can conceivably double your money on MMV at this time by parting it out. I see the buildings go for $60 a piece and the tree itself is going for $40. There's definitely a market for Lego trees even if they fall apart easily.
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    About to dump a bunch of legos and I noticed that The Burrow seems to be holding at the $100-$130 range, while Diagon Alley hasn't moved much at all in the last year ($150-$175). Anyone know why? Is it the minifigs?
  • itsnotmeitsnotme Member Posts: 112
    mathew said:

    A lot of those lighthouses on ebay are going for less than $75. I'm seeing sold listings in the $60-70 range and some of those are including shipping or reduced shipping rates. No way you can ship this set NIB for less than $10 unless it's locally.

    You also forgot to mention 10231. It's close to hitting $170 NIB + s/h. This one should be double RRP by the fall.

    Yeah, I just used buy it now as a standard for comparison purposes, understanding that completed auctions frequently go for less. For this exercise I sacrificed conservatism for the time savings of not digging through a bunch of completed auctions, establishing a time window, averaging results, etc. Some sets have far fewer data points than others. Again, not saying that the appreciation shown is my expected profit.

    I didn't forget 10231, I just didn't buy any. Same for 10217 and a few others.
  • wilburwilbur Member Posts: 49
    From an investment standpoint I care much more about the amount of time it takes for a set to double than I care about what its max price will be. Max price is a total unknown to me, but for certain sets the time it takes to double is pretty reliable once the set retires and starts appreciating. For example, based on what I've seen the past few months I'm fairly confident MT will double by Christmas season and maybe even triple (I bought a bunch right before Christmas 2012). But I'm much less confident that it will double again (to 4x or 6x respectively) by holiday season 2014. So its a better use of my capital to sell after a year and reinvest in a different set than to stick it out for two years. In other words, most of the time the Annual rate of return, or Compound Annual Growth Rate is diminished the longer you hold onto a set.

    I understand theres a slight flaw in this logic! By this reasoning, I ought to sell my MT's right now and then reinvest in some new set! The reason I wouldn't do that is that it's too risky! Sure I'd nearly double my money after only three months of holding onto a set! But then I have to reinvest in something thats gonna retire in a month and also nearly double after only two months! Anybody know of a set like that? If you do you should definitely keep that kind of information to yourself!

    Even if I picked a set that retires in April, how do I know it will appreciate quickly? And even if it does, how do I know MT wouldn't have done better if I'd just held onto it for 8 more months? I don't! But I'm fairly certain the set wont "redouble" as I call it, between holiday season 2013 and 2014. So I sell in 2013.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^Thats the flaw exactly with the flip early-reinvest strategy, the fact that you have to have a new stock to replenish with. The current offerings pale in comparison to the recent retired sets. Thus I'm stuck in the 'hold' group since I don't see anywhere available choices worth swapping to.
  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265
    ^ I have some retired toy story sets that I will give you a deal on :)
    On that note, any idea if they will be making a T/S 4... that would likely help the resale value of the older ones, or how about a LEGO T/S game? (only if they make another movie)
    happy GREEN day!
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    jcb193 said:

    About to dump a bunch of legos and I noticed that The Burrow seems to be holding at the $100-$130 range, while Diagon Alley hasn't moved much at all in the last year ($150-$175). Anyone know why? Is it the minifigs?

    I'm not positive where you're located, but in the US, Diagon Alley just became completely unavailable at retail in early January... and it's pretty consistently fetching ~$240 (shipped).
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^^I would consider Toy Story as one of the 'dog' themes, but not as bad as PQ, AC, PoP or Atlantis. Thanks for the offer though :) With that said, I already have my fill of Woodys Roundup, Trash Compacter, and the Zurg spaceship sets so ill have to pass on more :P.

    ^DA is moving fast, so is the big Hogwarts. Little Hogwarts is starting to pick up too.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Yes, please state where you are at before you post numbers. Oh and when something isn't available in your area. It drives us nuts :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    The trains have been discussed before in terms if their performance in the aftermarket. I think the Maersk Train will do very well. I think it will do better than any of the last few trains (Santa Fe, BNSF and EN)
  • KumbazoKumbazo Member Posts: 24
    Hello everybody, I am new to posting here, but have been following this forum for a few months now - excellent thread!

    Looks like 10222 has been retired at [email protected]
    http://search2.lego.com/?q=winter+village&lang=2057&cc=US
    ...do they un-retire it near Xmas time?

    Also, no more Star Wars re-releases (even though the next wave of Lego SW is mostly Episode 2 related)
    http://www.deadline.com/2013/01/exclusive-no-more-star-wars-3d-prequel-releases-lucasfilm-passes-to-focus-on-new-trilogy/
    ...do we think this will postively/negatively effect SW set prices?
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    edited March 2013
    Difficult to say for the 10222 Winter Village Post Office set. As stated before in this thread that theme usually follows a 2 year pattern in which a new set is introduced and the oldest is retired. Toy Store was retired last year and it's believed the Bakery is retired this year. The Post Office (and Cottage) should return this Christmas, but that is not 100%. The new "Retired" labels on the Lego site were not there I believe last year at this time so I don't recall what labels were used.

    As for Star Wars, I think they will miss out on gaining some new fans who would watch the movie but I still think sales of their prequel sets will meet their expectations. Even if you haven't seen the movies I'm sure a kid would be impressed by seeing the AT-TE or Republic Gunship in person on a store shelf.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    edited March 2013
    111ins said:

    ^ I have some retired toy story sets that I will give you a deal on :)
    On that note, any idea if they will be making a T/S 4... that would likely help the resale value of the older ones, or how about a LEGO T/S game? (only if they make another movie)
    happy GREEN day!

    I've got a few too, especially the train. TS4 is way off yet. It'll be awhile for these puppies.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    Pitfall69 said:

    The trains have been discussed before in terms if their performance in the aftermarket. I think the Maersk Train will do very well. I think it will do better than any of the last few trains (Santa Fe, BNSF and EN)

    Well I think the BNSF had A lOT of locos present in the stores and it is only one locomotive, and not a set, but the Series II cars are pretty popular still, but again I think people have a hard time to pay that much for one train loco or car.
    But I agree the Maersk should do better than EN, IMO, only because it is Maersk related in addition to being a train AND it has Maersk Intermodal containers which also are usually in demand with those with large layouts (Im guessing on that but every AFOL train layout you usually see a frieght yard or intermodal train) So I can see the demand only rise, unless of course they re-do it in the future.
    I also see both EN and MT doing better than the Horizon Express (when it EOLs) as well because there just does not seem like there is much to it that makes it unique IMO, that and many are going to horde them anyway.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    Kumbazo said:

    Hello everybody, I am new to posting here, but have been following this forum for a few months now - excellent thread!

    Looks like 10222 has been retired at [email protected]
    http://search2.lego.com/?q=winter+village&lang=2057&cc=US
    ...do they un-retire it near Xmas time?

    What is surprising is that the Post Office is listed as retired, but the bakery is listed as 'sold out'

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^That is interesting. If the post office is retired then Lego would have totally caught us off guard. I know that the bakery is a better set and probably sold better, but wouldn't that be something if they retired the Post Office and produced more Bakeries?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    edited March 2013
    ^-- Well Im not sure the PO got really high marks, I thought the bakery is in more demand, but maybe that is more due to the rumors of it EOLing more than anything else. But like you said if PO is gone then it will be interesting to see what occurs on the secondary market. I will say I think I have more Bakeries than Post Offices, so I would be wishing I had gotten a view more if they are in fact gone for good
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    I still think PO is back in the fall for its last season. I don't care what [email protected] says.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^Alright there maverick ;)
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