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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    Gavin83 said:

    Unexpected Gathering and Haunted house should be around for a while yet. The Falcon will likely disappear soon but as fitzyfitz said, they always have one available, if it goes EOL they'll be another (hopefully improved) version shortly after. As for the Grand Emporium, who knows. In theory it should have already disappeared but then again they may well retire FB first, or could even retire both at the same time.

    If I was in your position I'd buy the Grand Emporium. Although it'll likely be around for a while yet it could disappear and if it does you'll be extremely disappointed with yourself.

    I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the Millennium Falcon as a possible short-term investment, especially this Christmas (and possibly even 2014), as it will likely be gone and not yet replaced by that point.

    The Falcon, for all of its iconic status, has not yet been an 'always on' set. From early 2002 to mid-2004 there was no System scale Falcon available, and then there was an even longer absence between 2006 and 2011. I'm not guaranteeing that this Falcon won't be immediately replaced with a new one, of course, but I feel it's pretty unlikely.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    CCC said:

    Swings and roundabouts. The biggest loss will be the resellers.

    No doubt, but keep in mind that "resellers losing" does not automatically equal "TLG winning".

    It is not a zero sum game.
    forumreader
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    @y2josh

    Is the Millennium Falcon a fast ship?
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited March 2013
    ^^^I want to echo @y2josh's comment on the MF not always being available. I'm not even sure why the perception came from since it's not true once you exclude the mini, midi and UCS versions. And as josh succinctly pointed out the lack of availability was more prevalent. There's only been 3 system scale versions, just like the AT-AT. Look at how that one has been doing sinc EOL, quite nicely.

    And when do we expect the next version to show up, 2 years minimum? Same should apply to those debating the current MF. If you think you're gonna still be around in 5 years, then you might want to chance an improved model will be released by then. Otherwise, what are you really waiting for?
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    edited March 2013
    ^^(in Walken voice) Ha. Fast. Shiiip? You've never. Heard of. The Millennium. Faaaalcon? It's the ship. That made. The Kessel Run. In less than. Twelve paaarsecs. She's. Fast enough. For you. Old man.

    That sucked. I'm sorry. Ya know... I had it.
    Rennycloaked7
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,305
    I usually buy mods when they are on sale, so Ill get a Palace Cinema, probably around the Fall Winter when they will probably wind up in a BOGO50 or B2G1F at TRU
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    edited March 2013
    ^^You were fine. Although you probably sounded more like dead man Walken.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    edited March 2013
    ^That whole body of text was from the bit, actually. It was on SNL back when I was in high school and Kevin Spacey did an AMAZING Christopher Walken. He also did a pretty spectacular Matthau auditioning for Obi-Wan and Jack Lemmon as Chewbacca. It's great stuff.

    http://www.milkandcookies.com/link/31791/detail/

    Completely off-topic, but certainly worth a watch. I only wish it was the whole bit.

    To keep it mildly on-topic, though... I think the current Falcon is a solid investment, especially if you were able to get it back when it was under $100, but even at $140, I'd be surprised if you couldn't make fair money off of it within six months.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    I concur. I don't care what anyone says.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    Personally, I like the current Falcon and think it will do fine once it's EOL'd (unless it stays out as long as the DS or FB).

    With the new wave of Marvel and DC sets, I am curious when the first wave will be EOL'd. They've been over 14 months now and I think they should be about ready to go.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    I only have 3, but intend to get more.
  • luckyrussluckyruss UKMember Posts: 871
    I think there's some sense in that - whilst I'm confident there will be another Falcon, at that price point it's perhaps harder for TLG to keep one in production all the time (they only want so many sets at each level). If you want to resell, it does mean you want to flip fairly quickly as suggested.

    On the other hand the X-wing is at a price point where it's easier to keep one out in a near continuous run (astoundingly my TRU is still carrying both #6212 and #9493!).

    Of course it may get more interesting when the "new UCS" Falcon comes back ;-)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,305
    Ill buy Falcon's but only at a good price (around 100, if not less- IMO)
    Im guessing the Falcon will be out the length of time other falcons were out (excluding the UCS) which is about 2 years
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,252
    edited March 2013
    ^Same. It's a nice set, but re-done so many times... I'd only be tempted to buy it if it was at a very good price.

    I haven't seen this set in the flesh, but from looking at pictures I see almost no differences from 4504. But that's just probably my own ignorance.
  • cardgeniuscardgenius Member Posts: 153
    edited March 2013
    What does everyone think about the Architecture line? Will these hold their value or go up any once they retire? Have any of these sets had their price go up once retired?

    I like the Robie House set and plan on buying one soon but was curious if I should pick up another one to keep sealed for when it retires?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,305
    edited March 2013
    ^--I think they may go up, most EOL sets do, but how much is the question and relative to sale prices, or RRP?
    I do not see these going up too much.. maybe if the Robie house, or Farnsworth house were minifig scale, but then they would be a heck of a lot more to buy
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^^Its a new line, so may be unpredictable. However, my overall impression is that mini-scale sets do not perform exceedingly well post-EOL (except for some of the older SW mini, which saw moderate gain.) Just check out the mini Amusement Park, Airport, Skyline, etc. And the mini-Modulars in the near future also, which I do not expect to sky rocket after EOL either.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    samiam391 said:

    ^Same. It's a nice set, but re-done so many times... I'd only be tempted to buy it if it was at a very good price.

    I haven't seen this set in the flesh, but from looking at pictures I see almost no differences from 4504. But that's just probably my own ignorance.

    It's actually VERY similar to 4504, only with a much more solid frame (which explains the ~300 extra pieces as well as higher price point). The interior is a little less elaborate than 4504, but overall, I prefer 7965.
  • brclark82brclark82 Member Posts: 195
    So far the 21001 ($20 rrp) has gone to $60+, the cheapest new set on BL right now is $75 and the original 21000 that says Sears Tower (before they switched the name to Willis Tower) is $50+ even with the exact same model still in production. The 21016 disappeared randomly last month but barely gets much over RRP right now. So who knows, but I think there could be some value in the aftermarket for the collectors that have to have every set in a collection because I own both 21000 and 21001 and they are terrible sets. Not worth even RRP in my opinion but again will sell because of the completionists.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,592

    CCC said:

    Swings and roundabouts. The biggest loss will be the resellers.

    No doubt, but keep in mind that "resellers losing" does not automatically equal "TLG winning".

    It is not a zero sum game.
    Exactly. It is up to lego decide whether to keep sets in production longer and keep their items available to the general public for longer (damaging resellers' businesses in the process - whether or not they care about this, who knows?) or stick to what they have done in the past and EOL sets relatively frequently.

    There have been strange cases - the lifetime of FB, the lifetime of The Zombies. One goes on and on, the other they cut very quickly. Was the latter because they want people (including resellers) to grab all sets on release in case they EOL quickly? Many people missed stocking up on that one. Would resellers change habits and buy lots of stock at release in the hope they EOL quickly? I doubt it.

    Does cutting one set in a range harm the rest of the range? If you can no longer get the whole set, does it matter to consumers?

    No doubt lego try to model how sales will go depending on their choice of production strategy.
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    ^^ I think the Zombie was a weird occurence, and not the norm. You had a retailer exclusive, a once and done line, and a HUGE new wave of shelf liners in the form of Chima, GS, and TMNT all at once (Not to mention a modest new SW line).
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,592
    edited March 2013
    It was only an exclusive in the US.
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    So retailer exclusive (if only in the US) had no bearing on the EOL? I would disagree.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,592
    Why would the retailer want it to EOL so quick? Surely they'd want exclusives to be long lived, so as to maximise the number of people coming in to buy it.
  • SirKevbagsSirKevbags Fairy Land Member Posts: 4,030
    Wasn't the Zombies exclusive to Argos in the UK?
  • coachiecoachie South WalesMember Posts: 476
    ^Yes, and LLW.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,814
    Personally I think there is too much product out there now, and we could do with a raft of retirements. You can see the issues certain retailers are having if you go in stores, as often they simply cannot stock or display anything like the full range. Give it another 8 weeks and we will start to see the summer ranges!!
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    @CCC i can see a retailer having an limited exclusive with a once and done production line. They would want "in and out" while the poker was hot.

    MF has already cooled off (at least here in the states). B&M stores have gone through a couple rounds of clearance about the time that Zombies disappeared. I'm starting to suspect that MF was opted as a line that got nixed initially, but then some kind of second wave came.

    My thoughts are it was a Lego issue...not the retailers with Zombies set, though...especially if all the stock disappeared all at once, (and then resumed suddenly when all the new line stock came in).

    That's how it played out here, anyway
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,592
    edited March 2013
    jasor said:


    MF has already cooled off (at least here in the states). B&M stores have gone through a couple rounds of clearance about the time that Zombies disappeared. I'm starting to suspect that MF was opted as a line that got nixed initially, but then some kind of second wave came.

    I think it has cooled here too. In fact, frozen in some cases! I was fortunate enough to pick up The Zombies while in the US, and never looked for it here, so cannot really comment on when it disappeared here. We have had serious discounting of some sets in the MF range though - The Crazy Scientist set at £9 (so $15) has to be one of the craziest.

    Although it would be a nice range to resurrect (!) the way they have been on sale suggests price point errors / lack of interest.
  • nbaisfantasticalnbaisfantastical Member Posts: 8
    S&H has LOTR 9472 AoW listed as "call for availability" and only 8 sets left as of this post. Could this be discontinuing or do these sets sometime get updated to "out of stock"?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,592
    ^ They sometimes go out of stock, then back in again.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited March 2013
    This is my take on the Zombies set.

    It was a Target exclusive if I recall correctly. So I'm sure Target had a lot to do with how many were produced and sold. For one thing I bet the Target person/group over toys didn't give the Zombie set much thought. For two, they probably saw the whole Monster Hunters theme as somewhat seasonal and didn't want a huge supply of the Zombie set on the shelves for months, because they only have so much shelf space for LEGOS and know new sets are going to be arriving. For three, I'm sure Target felt there were bigger fish to fry and after the initial order of Zombies never revisited the set much, if any.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,592
    ^ Have Target had (new) stocks of the other MF sets since July? If so, it is unlikely that they would have limited the exclusive, yet not limited the non-exclusive.
  • SirKevbagsSirKevbags Fairy Land Member Posts: 4,030
    It was gone in the UK around the first week of December, maybe even late November. There was a worldwide supply issue with this set so I doubt Target or any other retailer had a say in how many were produced.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    Isn't Luke's Landspeeder a Walmart exclusive? It was out for a long time. It disappears after Christmas and then reappears last month online.
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,074
    ^^from what i remember the zombies dissapeared in Germany around the same time as in the US! My first thought why they took it out of production was that it's somehow a "controversial"set (a graveyard with bride&groom jumping out of their coffins),maybe some parents complained about that?
  • jasorjasor United StatesMember Posts: 839
    I still hold that it was a whole MF line hiccup. All the sets disappeared, including Zombies...some even clearanced out. Now, there is a resurgence of them here lining the shelves....like the same stores that previously clearanced them out.

    Helm's Deep is endangered species. The only one holding any stock to speak of around here, is TRU ( i wonder why...). How does everyone think it'll perform aftermarket? (by aftermarket, I mean if it EOL'd soon and through the Hobbit trilogy end)
  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,117
    I find Helms Deep everywhere here in the New Orleans area. I bought one last christmas when WAL-Mart had it for sale for $89. I want to get another one before it does go. The cheapest I have seen it currently is at Target for $115.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    jasor said:

    I still hold that it was a whole MF line hiccup. All the sets disappeared, including Zombies...some even clearanced out. Now, there is a resurgence of them here lining the shelves....like the same stores that previously clearanced them out.

    Helm's Deep is endangered species. The only one holding any stock to speak of around here, is TRU ( i wonder why...). How does everyone think it'll perform aftermarket? (by aftermarket, I mean if it EOL'd soon and through the Hobbit trilogy end)

    This one's a tough call for me. I personally think it's a pretty poor model that has a very 'incomplete' feel, but others like it quite a bit. I also feel like the main aftermarket pull of LotR will be in the minifigs, but I'm not sure Théoden and Haldir will be big draws.

    Personally, I'd focus on Weathertop and Mines of Moria, given the next wave, but only if you can get 25% off or better (though at around 30% off, I'd probably snag another couple of Helm's Deeps as well).
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,139
    On a side note, does anyone else here think that the re-release of Jurassic Park in the theaters in 3D will boost the sales of the Dino theme? I know they are marked as retired but TRU still has a few of them in stock.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    I think they are doing a JP4 as well. It really doesn't matter. All 6-year-old boys love dinos and always will.

    The sweet spot is selling dino sets during Xmas season when there are no active dino sets in the stores.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Speaking sets that quickly disappear... what happened with the last 3 Master Builder Academy kits (7-9). Lost Village, Forbidden Bridge, The Lair. You can still get sets 1-6 on lego.com, but not 7-9. Did they make fewer of 7-9 or were they a lot more popular, or both?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    prevere said:

    I think they are doing a JP4 as well. It really doesn't matter. All 6-year-old boys love dinos and always will.

    The sweet spot is selling dino sets during Xmas season when there are no active dino sets in the stores.

    Lego probably won't be doing JP4 because Hasbro has the license for their Kre-o line.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    edited March 2013
    ^Speaking of Kre-o and other clone brands, TLG better get back into the game because they are missing out on some big licenses. Star Trek, Halo, Jurassic Park to name a few.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    edited March 2013
    ^ Of course not, TLG is responding by acquiring... the Simpsons license

    ETA: The above statement was intended to be read with a handful of sarcasm...
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    I laughed.

    TLG can only license so much. Star Wars, DC and Marvel alone are phenomenal for one company to have.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ True, but keep in mind that DC and Marvel are the same company, and now even with Star Wars, since Disney owns all three.

    For that matter, Disney is quickly becoming the go-to license for LEGO.

    PotC, PoP, The Lone Ranger, Cars, Toy Story, Duplo Disney Princess, Star Wars, DC, Marvel, all are Disney properties...
  • neomonkeyneomonkey Member Posts: 82
    Time Warner owns DC, not Disney.
    y2joshjasorThe_Mack
  • wilburwilbur Member Posts: 49
    Regarding the MF line. How sure are we it's going for good? I know it seemed that it disappeared for a time, but currently it's presence online is extremely strong. Amazon has it down a few bucks with target matching.
    I understand they aren't making any new sets this year, or so it seems. Does that mean the line is just going to fade away? I guess what I'm asking is.... Do we KNOW its gone for sure? Or are we speculating? Or is it a combination of both; sometimes we make educated guesses quite accurately. Is anybody here educated in the ways of fighting lego monsters?


    Also could I line like that fade away after only one year, while at the same time leaving its flagship model (the haunted house) in production for many years? That set has modular sales and longevity potential IMO; it's pretty much an instant classic the day it was released!
  • morbiczermorbiczer Member Posts: 50
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^Speaking of Kre-o and other clone brands, TLG better get back into the game because they are missing out on some big licenses. Star Trek, Halo, Jurassic Park to name a few.

    I would assume the Star Wars licence has an exclusivity clause and TLG can't do another science fiction licence.
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