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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    Please don't say that :(
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    FB will go this year because I have 20 and it has to!
    FollowsClosely
  • GreenArrow57GreenArrow57 GBMember Posts: 71
    starfire2 said:

    bigjsd said:

    Ok I'll bite. Fire Brigade will never retire. Grand Emporium will probably go soon after that. Buy this two first and you should be good until after Christmas.

    The Fire Brigade is not listed in the new Spring Catalog. I think it will get marked down soon.
    I was told by a Lego shop employee that Fire Brigade is definitely the next to retire. She also said that it's the least popular of all the modulars.

  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    GreenArrow57 said:

    starfire2 said:

    bigjsd said:

    Ok I'll bite. Fire Brigade will never retire. Grand Emporium will probably go soon after that. Buy this two first and you should be good until after Christmas.

    The Fire Brigade is not listed in the new Spring Catalog. I think it will get marked down soon.
    I was told by a Lego shop employee that Fire Brigade is definitely the next to retire. She also said that it's the least popular of all the modulars.

    Its probably least popular right now as its had its time and been out for so long - I suspect overall during its life time its been one of the most popular however. Im hoping this will end up being discounted, wouldnt be surprised. Depends how many units are still available.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,305
    edited March 2013
    They just need to stick a "retiring" badge on it, and the rest will go at RRP. No need to discount it.
    FollowsClosely
  • BrikingBriking Dorset, UKMember Posts: 761
    ^ Spoilsport
  • makmak Member Posts: 300
    ^ Don't give them any ideas :-)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,916
    Wondering if GE and PS will follow FB lead with consistent price points at $120 on Amazon?
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    From multiple reliable sources FB will be available throughout this entire year. Same with 10188. No word on 2014 but we are free to guess all we like.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Town Hall is strangely kept at 10% off. Gives one hope.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    doriansdad said:

    From multiple reliable sources FB will be available throughout this entire year. Same with 10188. No word on 2014 but we are free to guess all we like.

    ^ This... I have heard this from more than one source as well.

    Neither are going anywhere until the end of this year.
  • PoMoPinkPoMoPink UKMember Posts: 275
    That'd be great, as I really want the PC but am feeling I ought to buy the FB if it's going to disappear.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    I hardly think investing in FB is still a very good idea. It has been out the longest out of the modulars. Unlike DS, it is not as iconic so really limits the audience. I see a long and bumpy road to profit for FB in secondary market.
    LegoFanTexas
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,916
    FB will retire. It will go up in value. The only factor I can't predict is time.

    And I figure, I can easily buy the remaining modulars that are out, even if my cashflow is limited.

    A Lego Modular is equal to the cost of a 6-inch sub. $4.17 to be exact (pre-tax).

    I figure if I skip one 6-inch sub a month, I'll have enough money to buy a $150 modular. Each modular is out now roughly three years, 36 x $4.17 = $150.12. Now, if I skip one Coke a month too...
    LegoPodcasterPitfall69EKSamLegoFanTexas
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    dragonhawk said:

    I hardly think investing in FB is still a very good idea. It has been out the longest out of the modulars. Unlike DS, it is not as iconic so really limits the audience. I see a long and bumpy road to profit for FB in secondary market.

    Agreed... If it had gone after 2 years like CC and GG, then it would have been a sure winner. Even if it went this past year, it would have done well. As it stands, 4 years is just too long for this thing.

    DS might well be out all of 2014 as well, so it isn't a sure thing either. No matter how iconic it is, at some point it is out so long it no longer matters, everyone and their brother owns it and several more to sell. It will rise of course, but it needed to go last year to do well.
  • EKSamEKSam Member Posts: 349
    @prevere

    Eat the sub, skip the coke:-) Imagine all the health benefits, a win win I say:-)
    cloaked7legoprods
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    You have to understand that there are a large amount of people that are coming out of their Dark Ages, just getting into Lego and have been into Lego , but just now starting to get into collecting the Modulars.

    These people will want to buy the Fire Brigade well after it's been retired. I think we all agree that FB will never reach CC, MS and GG levels, but I do predict at least 2.5x RRP, even with all the stock out there.  
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,933
    So... when is the DS retiring?
    I just wonder what we will talk about once that does really retire?
    "Remember the good ol days when we pondered when DS will retire?"

    Fire Brigade has been missing from the last years fall/winter catalogs too, if I am not mistaken... so it is most likely going this year, as to when this year all I have to say to that is.... When is DS retiring, again?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,933
    Brickarmor said:

    Town Hall is strangely kept at 10% off. Gives one hope.

    Keep watching it tends to drop to 150-160 at Amazon for brief periods on time, at least it has in the past.

  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Pitfall69 said:

    You have to understand that there are a large amount of people that are coming out of their Dark Ages, just getting into Lego and have been into Lego , but just now starting to get into collecting the Modulars.

    These people will want to buy the Fire Brigade well after it's been retired. I think we all agree that FB will never reach CC, MS and GG levels, but I do predict at least 2.5x RRP, even with all the stock out there.  

    Yeah, I agree, in other words, every year there new candidates to buy modulars and the FB will be a favorite. I agree completely that the FB won't do as well as the GG/CC but I still think it'll do well.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    As discussed before, everyone has their own definition of what a good profit is. I would think it would be insane not to think one could make $100 off each FB after fees in a year or so after retirement.
    TheLoneTensor
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,933
    I think the FB will be fine.. People seem to like the modular sets, and apparently everyone loves Fire Stations (enough for FB to be out for 4 years) I think it will be fine for after market, will it take a bit of time? Sure, but it will go up.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/9736/tower-bridge-is-getting-discontinued#latest

    And there you have it.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    The fact that your title was in all caps makes this intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
    KanohiPitfall69thenosdougtsLegoFanTexaswagnerml2
  • PoochyPoochy USAMember Posts: 479
    ^ Not good, I don't even have a single TB :(.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    wagnerml2 said:

    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/9736/tower-bridge-is-getting-discontinued#latest

    And there you have it.

    You trust a source that just joined the forum a couple of hours ago?

  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    No. I can't type in sarcastic blue font on my phone.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    I clicked on the link just because he was shouting at me.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    edited March 2013
    Is there such thing as a sarcastic font?

    There should be
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^Wingding?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    edited March 2013
    Ahh, to be sarcastic, you use reverse italics.
  • kwkwkwkw USAMember Posts: 1,187
    edited March 2013
    on, ot eb citsacras ouy evah ot etirw sdrawkcab

    enoyreve dluohs od siht ot diova noisufnoc
    BrickarmorRTOFarmer_JohnFollowsCloselyjasor
  • leppgleppg Member Posts: 45
    ^lol, posting like that would take forever!
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    No, No...lol. You just slant the letters from top left to bottom right
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    There needs to be an app that reverses writing...somebody please get right on it.

    I have to wonder if TLG is treating the FB as a trial balloon to see what to do with their other modulars regarding manufacturing and EOL. For instance, can a set be left on sale indefinitely (scarey, I know, if you're holding dozens of FBs)? Perhaps it can if it is produced at a significantly lower rate. Will the speculators continue to speculate and suck up the slack? Etc.

    I guess that's one of the nice things about licensed sets...the license agreement ends at some point and they have to quit selling them.
  • Peder44Peder44 Member Posts: 0
    Hey, new to this site. I recently got back into lego (bought the fire brigade) and have several sets that i really want to get before they are discontinued. Only problem is being a student and wont have that much income until the summer will probably only be able to buy 1 of these sets between now and then. Could someone give me advice and the order to get them (want them all, don't really have a preference on any of them). the sets are:

    -Grand Emporium (will eventually want all of the available modulars)
    -Millenium Falcon
    -Unexpected Gathering
    -Haunted house
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,350
    Welcome to the forums!

    You'll find that the following thread has an incredible amount of information on the topic that you are researching:
    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/1958/predictions-on-discontinuing-sets-and-their-secondary-market-value#latest

    Hope that helps and best of luck!
  • fitzyfitzfitzyfitz ManchesterMember Posts: 94
    Because you're already on the modular trail and have said you do want all the current ones, I'd go for Grand Emporium. It will complement the Fire Brigade, and nobody really knows how much shelf life it has remaining. Millennium Falcons come and go, but there's always another one along shortly. Just like buses...
    yys4uMathBuilder
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited March 2013
    This will undoubtedly be merged into the monster uncatchupable-by-any-normal-human-just-starting thread referenced above, but of those four, I vote the HH. You cannot go wrong there as far as coolness goes.

    Unless you don't like Halloween, which would be sad.
    madforLEGO
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    Unexpected Gathering and Haunted house should be around for a while yet. The Falcon will likely disappear soon but as fitzyfitz said, they always have one available, if it goes EOL they'll be another (hopefully improved) version shortly after. As for the Grand Emporium, who knows. In theory it should have already disappeared but then again they may well retire FB first, or could even retire both at the same time.

    If I was in your position I'd buy the Grand Emporium. Although it'll likely be around for a while yet it could disappear and if it does you'll be extremely disappointed with yourself.
  • PoochyPoochy USAMember Posts: 479
    ^^ I'm with the "get GE from that list" crowd.
  • yys4uyys4u USA SoCalMember Posts: 1,092
    Grand Emporium. You said you wanted to get all the available modulars at some point so it seems that would be your "preference." Haunted House and Unexpected gathering will be around for a while, and the Millennium Falcon is overpriced in my opinion.
    Crownie
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,305
    I guess it depends on costs for keeping a set in production. If they sold "expired" modulars online only, so no shelf competition in store, no advertising, it might make people happy if they missed earlier ones. Would it hit overall sales? Who knows. Would it hit reseller sales? Yes.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    There is a cost to keep something in inventory, even if online only, and even if in low production.

    One of those costs is just space and capital tied up into a slow moving product.

    Another cost is the appearance that big sets will "always" be for sale. As it stands, there will "always" be a police and fire station in City, so no worries to buy one now, there will be one in some form next year, and the year after that.

    What is the rush to buy something like Pet Shop Modular if it will "always" be for sale? I'll buy that "later". But later never comes...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    As a side note to the above...

    I purchased UCS B-Wing the day it came out, but have since sold it. I now know that at some point in the next 2 years, I'll find it on sale at some point.

    I bought Town Hall day 1 of release, but don't have Palace Cinema yet and probably won't for a few years. As it stands, it appears I have at least 4 years to pickup Palace Cinema, so no worries on that.

    Something to keep in mind...
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,305
    Yeah, some people may put off buying stuff and never get round to it. Others may buy it later at a price they are happy with, when they wouldn't have paid twice retail. Swings and roundabouts. The biggest loss will be the resellers. Will Lego make more by doing it? Who knows. Maybe the current models are testing the water about length of production.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    I think it is all about who is going to flinch first. People are/were buying a lot of Fire Brigade. Whether it was because it is popular (Fire Station), because of what past modulars are going for now or maybe because it is a good set to part out and make MOC's. Whatever the reason, Lego has made a lot of them. Knowing what we know now, the same people that were buying Fire Brigade now will wait to buy Pet Shop, Grand Emporium and Town Hall. If this happens, will Lego stop manufacturing these sets because demand is not there? How do they determine how many of a particular set they are going to make?
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    I think another point that seems rarely considered insofar as the availability of all current modulars is concerned is that they don't feature any 'dead' parts the way that Café Corner and Green Grocer did at the time they went out. Ease of production must certainly play some sort of role in determining the longevity of a set, and I can certainly see this lending itself to Fire Brigades longer production run, given it doesn't use any (yet) retired molds.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    Gavin83 said:

    Unexpected Gathering and Haunted house should be around for a while yet. The Falcon will likely disappear soon but as fitzyfitz said, they always have one available, if it goes EOL they'll be another (hopefully improved) version shortly after. As for the Grand Emporium, who knows. In theory it should have already disappeared but then again they may well retire FB first, or could even retire both at the same time.

    If I was in your position I'd buy the Grand Emporium. Although it'll likely be around for a while yet it could disappear and if it does you'll be extremely disappointed with yourself.

    I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the Millennium Falcon as a possible short-term investment, especially this Christmas (and possibly even 2014), as it will likely be gone and not yet replaced by that point.

    The Falcon, for all of its iconic status, has not yet been an 'always on' set. From early 2002 to mid-2004 there was no System scale Falcon available, and then there was an even longer absence between 2006 and 2011. I'm not guaranteeing that this Falcon won't be immediately replaced with a new one, of course, but I feel it's pretty unlikely.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    CCC said:

    Swings and roundabouts. The biggest loss will be the resellers.

    No doubt, but keep in mind that "resellers losing" does not automatically equal "TLG winning".

    It is not a zero sum game.
    forumreader
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