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Neither are going anywhere until the end of this year.
And I figure, I can easily buy the remaining modulars that are out, even if my cashflow is limited.
A Lego Modular is equal to the cost of a 6-inch sub. $4.17 to be exact (pre-tax).
I figure if I skip one 6-inch sub a month, I'll have enough money to buy a $150 modular. Each modular is out now roughly three years, 36 x $4.17 = $150.12. Now, if I skip one Coke a month too...
DS might well be out all of 2014 as well, so it isn't a sure thing either. No matter how iconic it is, at some point it is out so long it no longer matters, everyone and their brother owns it and several more to sell. It will rise of course, but it needed to go last year to do well.
Eat the sub, skip the coke:-) Imagine all the health benefits, a win win I say:-)
These people will want to buy the Fire Brigade well after it's been retired. I think we all agree that FB will never reach CC, MS and GG levels, but I do predict at least 2.5x RRP, even with all the stock out there.
I just wonder what we will talk about once that does really retire?
"Remember the good ol days when we pondered when DS will retire?"
Fire Brigade has been missing from the last years fall/winter catalogs too, if I am not mistaken... so it is most likely going this year, as to when this year all I have to say to that is.... When is DS retiring, again?
And there you have it.
There should be
enoyreve dluohs od siht ot diova noisufnoc
I have to wonder if TLG is treating the FB as a trial balloon to see what to do with their other modulars regarding manufacturing and EOL. For instance, can a set be left on sale indefinitely (scarey, I know, if you're holding dozens of FBs)? Perhaps it can if it is produced at a significantly lower rate. Will the speculators continue to speculate and suck up the slack? Etc.
I guess that's one of the nice things about licensed sets...the license agreement ends at some point and they have to quit selling them.
-Grand Emporium (will eventually want all of the available modulars)
-Millenium Falcon
-Unexpected Gathering
-Haunted house
You'll find that the following thread has an incredible amount of information on the topic that you are researching:
http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/1958/predictions-on-discontinuing-sets-and-their-secondary-market-value#latest
Hope that helps and best of luck!
Unless you don't like Halloween, which would be sad.
If I was in your position I'd buy the Grand Emporium. Although it'll likely be around for a while yet it could disappear and if it does you'll be extremely disappointed with yourself.
One of those costs is just space and capital tied up into a slow moving product.
Another cost is the appearance that big sets will "always" be for sale. As it stands, there will "always" be a police and fire station in City, so no worries to buy one now, there will be one in some form next year, and the year after that.
What is the rush to buy something like Pet Shop Modular if it will "always" be for sale? I'll buy that "later". But later never comes...
I purchased UCS B-Wing the day it came out, but have since sold it. I now know that at some point in the next 2 years, I'll find it on sale at some point.
I bought Town Hall day 1 of release, but don't have Palace Cinema yet and probably won't for a few years. As it stands, it appears I have at least 4 years to pickup Palace Cinema, so no worries on that.
Something to keep in mind...
The Falcon, for all of its iconic status, has not yet been an 'always on' set. From early 2002 to mid-2004 there was no System scale Falcon available, and then there was an even longer absence between 2006 and 2011. I'm not guaranteeing that this Falcon won't be immediately replaced with a new one, of course, but I feel it's pretty unlikely.
It is not a zero sum game.