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As a parent of soon to be two children, Lego really don't need me to learn the lesson that Lego are con artists and traders steal all the best lego.
Either way their child will no longer be getting a £2 minifugure every time they go to the Lego store.
We now hear that folks buy up loads, from all sources, and return them to the suckers at the lego shop who are too stupid to realise how clever they are. These people are the ones that say "i bought 6000 minecraft, lego must love me" but they don't and they wonder why. Lego at the end of the day are a manufacturer of childrens toys, they don't like to see children crying on Christmas day because traders bought all the stock. It doesn't do the brand any good long term, if I couldn't get my son the Lego set he wanted one Christmas (or struggled to) that child would be strongly convinced that next yeat he wanted a Scalextrix.
What we will see is new policies to prevent all this, and sadly it won't be to ban certain people from purchasing Lego. But a catch all that could be one of the following.
1. Simply tighten up the returns policy, demand receipts, ban returns on certain items unless they're faulty. Ban all returns because you've just changed your mind, charge a restocking fee, etc.
2. Limit purchases even further, one per customer. If you have two kids, its tough.
3. Generally discourage the adult market. Make the minifigures more child orientated, stop producing sets aimed at adults like expert models.
I have no idea if this applies to minifigure packs, but I can’t see why not, it would be easy to cut the bag behind the flap on the rear, slide out the parts you want and glue it down. If I was a store manager I don’t think I would risk it. But we only get told about this stuff very rarely in my dept. so I could be wrong.
Lego are partly responsible for the problem here, with their highly skewed distributions which is making some figures difficult to find anyway.
If they think they can also make money from the ones that work as multiples (the "army" builders, but not necessarily just soldiers, the ones they are choosing to have 6 per box), then they could sell battle packs of four or five of them. They could probably price them at 50% more than the unknown minifigs and still sell them. Otherwise, they will always have the problem of feeling out for elves, spartans, romans, etc.
After the recent change in CMF distribution its highly likely that even from a brand new box kids are going to get many duplicates unless they stand and feel. If we assume that standing and feeling is OK, then its highly unlikely that a kid will find a complete set as the figs with just two per box will likely have been picked out already (by one of us that knows exactly when a new set is released). So the likelihood of not getting what you want is just as high either way - returning or feeling.
This is 100% a problem of LEGO's own making but there's no simple answer.
Have completely equal distribution and any popular 'army builders' will become relatively scarce due to LEGO players.
Have a skewed distribution to have more of the likely 'army builders' and the less common figs will become even scarcer due to LEGO collectors.
But then thats the trouble -there are really two different markets at work here. The collecting market that want a full series and the playing market that wants lots of the cool ones. Going down the route of boxed sets takes away from the whole CMF thing - cheap pocket money impulse buys, but I can't see a better response.
Carefully inspecting returns and tracking customers who frequently return seems like it should be sufficient. Randomly open a percentage of returned sets as part of the return process seems like it would go far to discourage would-be scammers. If and when tampered sets slip through the cracks and are discovered by customers, replace them and offer some small compensation. Of course, track customers making those discoveries, too :P
Scissors, always scissors.
The point of a collection is to encourage us to collect it. Blind packaging is designed to create a sense of chase, for the ones you want, and implicitly includes the question of can you get them all. For many, this is the whole point, and they are the target audience of such a release.
Series 1-8 had 3 sets per a box (plus extras). In theory this box has the potential to please 3 people chasing a full set. From series 9 we have only 2 sets per box. This potentially pleases just 2 people chasing a set, with an abundance of spares.
Net result TLG have intentionally reduced the number of people any box will please by a third. The target audience (people collecting 'the collection') will be MORE hard pressed than ever to complete their collection, while we will all have the same spares. People who don't care for the set, and just get ones they like, are merely a factor which further reduces the chances of complete sets for the collector.
If TLG cared about pleasing the consumer, they'd make more sets per box, with an equitable chance of any figure, not worsen the odds. Unfortunately by making sets a lot harder to complete (potentially turning off every person who fails to complete their as present perfect collection), and going so far as to introduce a golden chase figure, they have threatened to take a knife to the throat of the range, and many collectors might just stop trying. Which leaves the casual shopper...
Most parents who buy a few figs as a pocket money present for the children/grandchildren are going to stop buying ANY of these figs when they inevitably start seeing the same few figs (series 9 being police, cyclops, knight) turning up time and time again - parents do not like to feel that they are being ripped off, and will simply start saying "these are just a big con now, always the same - i don't believe they've even made any of those other ones". Plus there's no room for them to make swaps, as everyone ends up with an abundance of the same figs, but hardly any of the rest (and if they got one of the 2'ers, they are not likely to swap it for a fig they can easily get).
(sorry, i rambled a bit).
If TLG wants to stop people buying a box/returning figs, they've gone a very funny way about it - this spread of figs if just going to make it worse.
They may not be building an army but they want the ones that interest them the most (which tend to also be the popular 'army builder types' and couldn't care less about ones they don't care about s8 fairy for example.
'Army building' cmf's probably isn't a good term for the category/market its more a 'pick-the-ones-i-like' market which for most kids would be just one of them but for CCC and those on eurobricks will be closer to 100 of them! Either way, its a very different market than the collector market and although girls may have different preferences amongst most boys aged 4-13 they are probably relatively uniform - i.e. not s8 fairy ;)
As for the distributions, I put some trust into TLG that the reason they changed the distributions was to improve the situation rather than make it worse. That the more even distribution of the past led to a lot of left over stock of the more unpopular ones, hence raise the proportion of the popular ones. Indeed when you look at the ones TLG have kept low they're likely to be not very popular with kids - fortune teller, plumber, waiter, females in general. Whilst those kids would like - knights, monsters, aliens, policemen have become more common. If TLG were trying to be evil they'd do it the other way around.
And @andhe the keyhole is the hole in the packaging that fits over the rack rod. It's like...the only hole in the bag. Rip into that from the inside, pull it apart and you don't risk cutting anything in the pack.
I tend to group series into usable and not-usable. Any that I will use, I generally try to get 3-4 minimum. Ones I won't use, I will trade.
I find it very rare that I get just one of a figure. I either don't want them at all or I get multiples. I think the only ones I have just one of are Liberty, Genie and Red Riding Hood - they are nice figures, but I don't use them much and if I do, it is individually.
I totally get that (I have lots of nephews). I think the point i was trying to make, but didn't quite get it out, was that in the end as we are all seeking the ones we want, (whether it be the army-builder, or the one-off fig collector), our buying habits kind of factors itself out of the equation, as people will go for different ones. In addition rarity creates a demand of its own. So army builder figs might be sought in number, but equally, forced rarity drives the demand for other figs.
So I say just let the market find itself. There's always going to be a fig that people want above another. Putting a predetermined skew of distribution doesn't solve it, it just makes it worse. Everybody ends up with lots of 'x6' category 'common' figs, whether you want them or not, which then nobody can swap away either, while the 'x2' rare figs have either all long gone to collectors, and anyone with a spare could demand too high a premium to swap for it (and might just keep it purely because of the perceived premium it holds to collectors - making it even harder again to get one in the wild - rarity is a self-perpetuating cycle of evil! lol).
Whereas if every fig were in x4, the army builders would be able to swap unwanted figs with the collectors who don't want an army (or with the people collecting their personal favourites and casual buyers not interested in tons of the same), for any other fig at more or less equal footing, and vice versa. Plus casual buyers would not be put off by getting the same figs all the time. But with a x2 vs x6 skew, there's almost nothing to swap with. The same 3 figs keep turning up all the time (or almost all the time, especially once the x2's have been sifted out by collectors desperate to finish a set).
I don't think anyone here is in dire need of any police or cyclops for instance (i've got loads of them, though i wanted a maiden and hollywood starlet), but equally, I can't swap them with people who do army build, as the person who wants lots of policeman or cyclops can easily pick them out of the box without trying - there's just so many.
I think, in the end, the root of all trouble is with the pre-determined skew of distribution. No fig should be less than 3 in 60.
Sorry for the waffle. :o)
Fitness girl? Zoo keeper? No-one (or very few) want them, at least more than one. The collectors stop once they have one for their set, the army builders won't keep any.
Army builders can only swap unwanted figs if the collector has an army of the army building figs and lack the "duds" (for army building). If there is an equal number (take S5), the collector is just as likely to get a fitness instructor as an evil dwarf. They won't have a problem getting a fitness instructor, no more than an evil dwarf.
This is what Lego have tried to address. They need to give more of the army types, but less of the duds. The problem then is identifying which is which. The forest maiden seems to be an army builder for some, yet is a 2x. The cyclops (I have 12) is a nice little army builder for me, but obviously others do not think so. Being a 6x is clearly too much.
I find it strange that the starlet or fortune teller would be army builders - maybe they are.
So the difficulty in getting these is possibly down to people knowing they are rarer, and wanting more for them.
The thing is I think TLG are letting the market find itself. I would like to think that the recent change has been at least partly based on experience from s1-8.
Scenario 1 - If all were equal then the 'army builders' would be picked out, making them rarer and hence harder to find. You're left with lots of the 'unpopular' lets call them girl (s8 fairy/cowgirl/skier) minifigs. ;)
Scenario 2 - If you force a skewed distribution (and correctly guess the army builders) then some of the non-army builders will become scarce and hard to find. You'll be left with lots of the army builders - knights, policeman, aliens.
Either way, you get scarce, harder to find minifigs. So then you look at the next issue.
So, lets imagine a child (and in all likelihood assume its a boy, called Timmy!) is given a cmf by their grandparent. Its just a random pick from a box at a till. Given either of the above scenarios. Which option is little Timmy going to prefer? A fairy (scenario 1) or a heroic knight (scenario 2)?
Perhaps there is sense in their madness?
S1 - nurse, cheerleader.
S2 - witch, lifeguard, popstar.
S3 - snowboarder, tennis, hula girl.
All of those look good in pairs or more. Maybe not armies, but multiples are good for play.
Nurses are great for hospitals. Even the NHS has more than one nurse in a theatre. Cheerleaders - when did you ever see just one cheerleader at a game?
I did a Baywatch style MOC once, five lifeguards, plus the legs of the lifeguard to make some trunks, then the surfers torso and male head.
Witches look good - three round a cauldron. Although less sought after now due to the Halloween pack.
Tennis: two or four for a match.
Hula girls look great when you have 8 or more of them. Ideal for pirates - Mutiny on the Bounty type scene when they arrive at Pitcairn. Although the reason I don't like this minifig is the skirt - I'd have preferred printed, like most other skirts are.
Snowboarder - not great in multiples, but mix and match parts with the other snow minifigures for mountain or winter scenes.
If done right, female figures can be collectable. I guess it is then down to will they be popular with girls and boys. Boys have cheerleaders at their sports. They don't really care too much for fitness instructors.
I thought the zoo keeper would have done better for MOCs, but I guess the problem here is the lack of single piece animals, like the dinosaurs. Why have a team of zoo keepers when you have no zoo.
For Series 3, there were only 2x Fisherman in a box.
For Series 4, there were only 2x Mad Scientists in a box.
As far as the concept of "army builders" goes, I agree with @CCC in that it's all relative. My 4 year old daughter was wishing this morning that she had an army of DJs to fight alongside Lloyd ZX in the battle against the Alien Conquest aliens. Those vinyl discs can be good weapons to defend Ninjago.
Like you say, whichever way it goes there is going to be popular figs and rare figs, (whether rare because they were popular/army builders, or by predetermined rarity). That being the case, i just don't see the argument for enforced rarity - because we run the risk of rare AND popular combined.
That doesn't mean i'm against armybuilders being increased somewhat (x5 was fine, just they often did it on the wrong fig before), but a shift to x2 on so many others imbalances the whole series. Remember, there's nothing wrong with breaking into another box for more army builders... but so many x2' figs... well, they're just not there.
To be honest, I think they only did the x2,4,6 thing in order to produce boxes of 30, and therefore needed even numbers). But the x6 vs x2 is just so imbalanced. 3 figs turn up as often as half the set. It'll put off so many casual buyers, and if you want groups of the x2's you're stuffed. :o/
http://www.brickset.com/news/article/?id=1072
There were also people (in the US) saying they were getting four fishermen per box.
It has never been clear if lego adjusted the contents part way through the run to address this or whatever. Similarly for the crazy scientist, see eg. here:
http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/1222/anyone-noticed-the-changed-distribution-in-series-4
The distribution seems to have changed, depending on when / where the boxes were bought.
The 16 CMF limit is a policy implemented by Brand Retail in an effort to ensure that any given customer can theoretically leave the store with a complete collection while preserving the same opportunity for the next person. It's LBR's solution to an LBR problem.
Changing the packaging or figure distribution is a product development and manufacturing decision. It may or may not solve the LBR problem better, but as anyone working in a large company surely knows, it's tough enough to get a different group to acknowledge a problem, let alone get them to agree to perform the resolution.
And I would argue that it's definitely true in this case. There is a balance that needs to be maintained, but make no mistake: the goal is to maximize sales and not to make it as easy as possible to obtain a complete set.
Ah, the "Robin Hood" justification. I love it.
So, so familiar to the late 1990s for sportscards, including the chase aspect. There is a tipping point on the "collectible fig" market, and I think we've just "jumped the shark".
And I have switched my monster boxes from cards to bricks to use for storing small bagged sets and minifigs. They work great. I so wish now I had bought Lego instead of cards back when I was a lawn-mowing phenom with potential.
^ A golden fig after 10 series is just playing catch up to Megabloks. Jumping the shark would be offering 4 special minifigs: bronze, silver, golden, and sparkling with different rarity / distribution.
@sidersdd
Just seen your post on box distribution.
You are partially correct.
S3 and S4 for the early boxes you could only get 2 full sets per box, however later boxes it was 3 full sets.
For S3 early distribution was 2 fisherman and 5 aliens.
Later S3 distribution was 4 fisherman and 3 Aliens
The distribution swap on S4 I can't recall now as it involved several figures.
But yes early distribution was 2 mad scientist, later series 4 distribution was 4 mad scientist.
Like many of you I see positives and negatives to the box buying and the restrictions stores set.
Today for example I was helping out a fellow brick setter (I think this is what we are called) complete his series 9. I class myself as a dab hand at feeling them out :) and I had this box in a different part of the shelf in Tesco. I had made sure the second box that existed was at a child's level just incase a little person wanted one. So feeling I went and this little boy stood next to me (I am 6ft7 and the boy must have been maybe 7).
He stood watching for maybe 3-4 minutes watching me go through the bags. He walked over and wanted to take one from the box I was going through.
What made it for me though was that I said to him there was another box at his level. He ran up to it and pondered for a split second and said one from the back and selected one at random. He then ran off with his prize lego bag which he picked himself.
Did he get one he didn't already have? Who knows? Did he care? Who knows? He seemed chuffed to bits from what I saw that he got his little mini figure.
That for me made me think that we all have a different reason for buying these little figures. Whether it is to buy and play with them, collect them and display them or even buy them and sell them on and make a profit (or a loss), it is our choice.
Is any persons reason right or wrong? For what my opinion is worth no I don't think so.
I've rambled on long enough, but just wanted to express my point of view. What I have learned is Lego will always receive complaints no matter what they do.
People can blame Lego all they want for "creating this monster" of a situation, but at the end of the day, the actions a person chose to do that day are theirs and theirs alone.
But then if they are 50% off, I'll buy all I can, and never return them to store. I'll trade the ones other people want for others I want. Maybe I'll sell some on BL. And any that nobody wants get harvested for parts if they are useful for MOC minifigs, even down to legs off hips if they have nice legs but horrible hips or vice versa. Same thing with hands and arms and torsos. After that, I'll wipe any parts with truly horrible prints, or dye them or customize them in some way. I take a holistic approach to minifigs. Every part can be used somehow.