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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    Just back on TMNT, I honestly think the Michelangelo figure in the biggest set is my favourite figure for some time. My daughter thinks it's hilarious too. It's a shame that the set is rather so so.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    edited February 2013
    ^The Shellraiser is easily the worst set out of the initial offerings (which is really saying something, given my low opinion of the sets themselves), but I still maintain that, for resellers who like to deal in current sets, I wouldn't dismiss TMNT in the short term. I know a lot can change between now and Christmas, but, at least in Midwest Indiana, the Lair and the Dragon Bike are consistently hard to find.
  • BrikingBriking Member Posts: 768
    Got my Spring 2013 Catalogue in the post today. On p15 they have a full spread on #10232 Palace Cinema. In the blurb it says

    Collect and build an entire town with the LEGO Modular Buildings collection:
    #10224 Town Hall, #10218 Pet Shop and #10211 Grand Emporium!

    Hold the Front Page?? Is the FB finally retiring?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ Sure, it will sooner or later, but don't be surprised to see FB on the shelves come this Christmas.

    I don't expect it to still be out in 2014, but rather it may go out towards Christmas this year. I posted before Christmas last year that my source told me to expect it to go out Sept-Oct 2013, depending on supply. Nothing else I've heard since disputes that information.

    Given that it will have been out for 4 years, I expect a slow rise in price on that one, too much over supply, too many false alarms for retirement. :)
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^^ there are already "retiring soon" signs in stores as well . . .
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    ^ only in a couple apparently, and they may well be mavericks who have mis-labeled the shelves. we did the same big song and dance about FB when it didn't show up in the catalog 9 months ago alongside the other modulars - yet it's still here.

    i too expect it to go sometime by end of year. but i don't think it will be in the next couple months.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,834
    ^---dunno, sets have discontinued before the fall, although it is rare.
    Then again it was rare to see a mod on sale for 4 years.

    All I know is it is time to focus on getting more haunted houses, if anything for the parts.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    When a new modular comes out there's probably a trickle down effect. Example being someone may buy another modular to go along with it. Then it would make sense to keep Fire Brigade around just to pick up a few additional sales.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk Member Posts: 633
    ^ If that is the case then FB will NEVER retire :)
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    ^ True, but I think Lego has a good feel for the market. That's why we see certain sets stay on the market for longer than others. Fire Brigade is one example of a set that has lasting appeal. Same goes for the Death Star and previously for MMV.
  • 2011Legomaniac2011Legomaniac Member Posts: 32
    Does anyone have any predictions on when train station 7937 will be retired? My guess is probably about 6 months or so from now. I think this will be a sleeper set, and will perform very well in the aftermarket. It should have no problem hitting $100+ about 6months-1yr. after retirement. Set 7936 (retail $20) Level Crossing was retired a yr. ago, and is close to $70! I see this set going in that same direction...plus all trains need a train stations, and look at all the trains out, and only 1 train station in production, I believe....sounds like a winner to me. =) I recently stocked up on these during TRU BOGO sale, but plan on getting some more before they retire, and was wondering about how much time I had on. Thx
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,555
    edited March 2013
    It depends on how long it is until a new train station comes out. Stations are also easy to moc. I cannot believe the price of the crossing these days - part out cost is about $30. If you just want the crossing (no barriers), maybe $5.
    Pitfall69
  • 2011Legomaniac2011Legomaniac Member Posts: 32
    Also, I believe the new Ninjago set 70505 Temple of light, will be the next Burrow 4840. I know they just came out, but I will start stocking up on these as soon as the next sale comes, and if I have the funds available...I wouldn't mind getting 100 of these, if I can find them for the right price. This set will shoot up to 150 fairly quickly after retirement, IMO.
  • BrikingBriking Member Posts: 768
    I've laid in a few #2507 Fire Temples from Smyths over the last week. It strikes me as a set that ought to have a future, so I'm wondering whether to let my (now in-) flexible friend tak a bit more strain.

    What's the general view on this set?
  • pmercikpmercik Member Posts: 55
    ^^ Could be but i seriously doubt it. #4840 is a HP set, this location has not been remade like most of the others from HP and it contains 4 unique minifigs including 3 characters only available in this set (Molly and Arthur Weasley and Bellatrix)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited March 2013
    2011Legomaniac said:

    Does anyone have any predictions on when train station 7937 will be retired? My guess is probably about 6 months or so from now. I think this will be a sleeper set, and will perform very well in the aftermarket. It should have no problem hitting $100+ about 6months-1yr. after retirement. Set 7936 (retail $20) Level Crossing was retired a yr. ago, and is close to $70! I see this set going in that same direction...plus all trains need a train stations, and look at all the trains out, and only 1 train station in production, I believe....sounds like a winner to me. =) I recently stocked up on these during TRU BOGO sale, but plan on getting some more before they retire, and was wondering about how much time I had on. Thx

    CCC said:

    It depends on how long it is until a new train station comes out. Stations are also easy to moc. I cannot believe the price of the crossing these days - part out cost is about $30. If you just want the crossing (no barriers), maybe $5.

    IMO, this is one of the worst Train Stations Lego has ever produced. I don't even want to call it a train station. My favorite has always #2150 the Red version. Most of the train stations are fairly cheap to build yourself. I would have taken all that money you spent on those train stations and put it into Diagon Alley or the Imperial Shuttle just before they retired, but that's just me.

  • JessyDooDahJessyDooDah Member Posts: 228
    ^ Anyone know how much the burrow will cost to bricklink?
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    Yeah, the current train station is rather a train stop. I also think that TLG will release a new one once this retires. I think #7937 will do just okay on the aftermarket, but not great.

    #2507 is an interesting set. I don't know why but it doesn't seem to be that hot among kids. Which is a bit weird as it has a nice building plus a dragon, and Ninjago dragons are very popular as we all know. Given this I'd also rather choose the Golden Dragon set over the Temple of Light one for investment.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    2507 was out too long in my opinion. It would have done much better if it retired after 1 year like all the other red box sets.

    It was also on sale many times, I've picked up many copies of it for $80 or so, which is 33% off retail.

    I sold most of them before Christmas, many just the week before, as it became very hard to find, but the market has held up well enough for it, but I have a hard time seeing it go above $200, given the show is gone, new sets are small, and something new is out.

    Oh well. :)

    Green Dragon should do well, to a point, but it should have retired last year as well. The fact that it didn't means it will do no better than 2507 IMHO.

    The one to watch is Golden Dragon, if it retires quickly this summer without warning after 6 months, it will do very well indeed.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    Ninjago... Predicting these sets is nigh impossible. I really don't get why TLG changed their mind about the scheduled end of Ninjago when Chima was apparently slated to be the heir. It's crazy, but I can't see the green boxes sticking around through summer, though the misnamed "Final" Battles will surely be out all year. If kids are as fickle as, well, kids, high doses of the Chima cartoon this summer may leave AFOLs as the only Ninjago buyers.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,727
    I imagine they will keep at least most of the current Ninjago line on the shelves the whole year to tie over until they can get the new wave rolling next January.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,834
    #7937 has been out for some time, whereas the Level Crossing just kinda went away a bit early, and that set was more likely passed over by those who thought they could get it at a later date, finally, to top it all off it was a bit overpriced as well IMO (which explains why it was discounted before going away)
    Those factors are what made the level crossing set go up so fast IMO.
    I just do not see the station going up like the level crossing due to the following reasons:
    -This set has been out longer and it is a 'staple' of a train layout.
    -It is relatively cheap, especially when it is always on sale.
    -Many other people are probably also hording them in various numbers
    -How long it takes old versions of recent train stations to 'appreciate'
    -Iif LEGO needs to discount them to remove old stock at EOL
    -LEGO usually puts out a new station with the new train sets due out, and it is usually a better design that the old lately.
    All of these reason is why I dunno if I would use that much space in hording these IMO.
    I guess if you only clear about 10-20 in profit in 6-12 months (which is what I think it will do MAYBE), but have 50 of them it is not bad, you will make money, but you better have bulk.. Not to mention telling others that it is a sleeper set to stock up on probably does not help
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^This

    and the fact, to me, its not really a train station.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Unless you have super insight on what city sets will be super investments, I usually shy away from them.
  • BrikingBriking Member Posts: 768
    #70003 Eris' Eagle Interceptor has been out less than 2 months, but is 1/3 off both on Amazon UK and in Tesco. Presumably this is part of kick-starting the theme. Does this mean it is likely to be the first Chima set to be retired? In which case it should have a very happy after-life.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    ^ nowhere near retiring in my view. Nice figs on the set, so could do well though when eventually goes.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    With few exception sets don't retire midyear. The train station is in the 2013 assortment, so it may retire at year-end.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,834
    Pitfall69 said:

    Unless you have super insight on what city sets will be super investments, I usually shy away from them.

    Most 99 and up city do OK; you are rolling the dice that LEGO will not re-release the theme for a bit when you buy as well (like a police, and fire, station every other year.) But then again isn't SW the same crapshoot nowadays? Would not be surprised to see another Slave 1 next year.. kinda surprised there is not already another Grievous star fighter or sith infiltrator yet.

  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    ^ Agreed, I'd say most $99 and up excluding police and fire. For example, the garages, street corners, airports, these always seem to go up. The fire and police have active sets every year, which usually kills any reselling of older versions.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,727
    Prediction: #75013 Umbaran MHC will do well in the aftermarket. Exclusive to Target/S@H in the US, exclusive Older-Asoka minifig plus 2 purple alien minifigs should drive it up. Plus Target exclusives can disappear without warning like Zombies did and the Republic Tank a few years back.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    I also THINK the set will probably resell well, but I don't always get them right.

    For the same reasons you give I thought Cad Bane's Speeder #8128 would resell well, but it didn't. If the last few SW Target exclusives are a gauge it will be around for a good while. #9494 is still available. Well sort of. Every time I check at Target it's not in the store. :-)
  • ShpadoinkleShpadoinkle Member Posts: 420
    I think it has the signs of being one of those "rogue" sets. In the city I live in there are three Targets. None of them have this set in stock. In fact, only one of them ever had one set (and that's the one I now have on my coffee table.) In fact, looking at current stock levels the nearest one to me right now is an hour and fifteen minutes away. It's a neat set but very hard to find (at least in my area.)

    Also, I think the Umbaran series from the show was one of the best story lines they have yet done. All of the CW sets (with the exception of the Barc speeder) are from that series of episodes, but the MHC is the only set in which you get actual Umbaran soldiers.

    Might be a hit, might not, though it will easily outperform Cad Bane's speeder (way more elements to play with.) But for what its worth it seems very hard to find at the present time.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    cloaked7 said:

    I also THINK the set will probably resell well, but I don't always get them right.

    For the same reasons you give I thought Cad Bane's Speeder #8128 would resell well, but it didn't. If the last few SW Target exclusives are a gauge it will be around for a good while. #9494 is still available. Well sort of. Every time I check at Target it's not in the store. :-)

    @Cloaked7 - Don't feel bad. The Cad Bane Speeder is why the word "diversification" was invented for Lego investing. A lot of my data pointed to that one being a solid buy. Luckily, I only bought a few and at discount when they were being clearanced towards the end there.
  • BillybrownBillybrown Member Posts: 748
    prevere said:

    cloaked7 said:

    I also THINK the set will probably resell well, but I don't always get them right.

    For the same reasons you give I thought Cad Bane's Speeder #8128 would resell well, but it didn't. If the last few SW Target exclusives are a gauge it will be around for a good while. #9494 is still available. Well sort of. Every time I check at Target it's not in the store. :-)

    @Cloaked7 - Don't feel bad. The Cad Bane Speeder is why the word "diversification" was invented for Lego investing. A lot of my data pointed to that one being a solid buy. Luckily, I only bought a few and at discount when they were being clearanced towards the end there.
    Cad Bane has topped up to £100 in the Uk for me so not bad considering I paid £30

  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited March 2013
    ^^ Yup, diversification is good. Not every SW set is a Rogue Shadow. :-)

    I had 8 Bane Speeders, I think. I broke even on them, although I got all of them at a discount.

    I'm beginning to stay away from the smaller sets and lean more toward sets like the Excavator, Shuttle Expedition, etc. Small SW sets are so hit and miss. But, I think it would be difficult to pick a bad 'classic' set.

    Also, I think it is obvious that it benefits if the customer base is larger. That is, boys and girls, kids and adults. I see SW being more for boys. Where maybe the Shuttle Expedition or Modulars touch all 3 groups. Boys, girls, adults. Enough of my rambling. :-) I got off on a tangent. I went from diversification to demographics, oops. My apologies...
    TheLoneTensor
  • RennyRenny Member Posts: 1,145
    I don't think it hurts to pick up a diverse selection of the smaller Star Wars sets but I like to buy no more than 2 to 5 of a set for reselling purposes. I do agree though that I too am shifting more towards purchasing only the bigger sets.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    cloaked7 said:

    diversification is good

    This sentiment alone is one of the most important tenets that any would-be Lego investor (or any investor for that matter) should subscribe to. You'll always get dogs (Helloooooo Atlantis!*) but if you have enough diversification to offset them, you come out ahead.

    * For the record, I think the Atlantis sets have yet to hit their prime. The sets are beautiful and the minifigs (at least the bad guys) are awesome. Maybe when the polar ice caps freeze and we're all in Waterworld they will finally be appreciated!

  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    So Sungnyemun #21016 looks to be completely gone now for anything close to RRP. Any guesses on how it will do now that it has retired? Short print run, odd retirement timing, no real sales....

    Last Architecture set to go was John Hancock Center #21001, which was terrible as a set but still commands a premium as people want to complete the series. Low sales volume of course.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    ^On the one hand, it was only available for eight months, which usually helps a set spike in price very quickly. On the other hand, the Architecture series already caters to an extremely niche market, so your prospective audience is going to be a small subset of this already narrow demographic that either really loves this model or simply wants to complete the series.

    That said, I think if you were only sitting on a small amount, you'd be in good shape, but I have to imagine this will be a very slow mover.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,727
    I think the Cad Bane Speeder was hurt by Cad also appearing in the much more desirable Clone Turbo Tank. Plus the ship just wasn't very exciting to look at.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,170
    Re Cad Bane's speeder: It was an ugly ship in a pricey package for what it was - General Grievous' star fighter was a far better deal at the same pricepoint.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    Yeah...I purchased all (about 4) of my Bane sets at a discount. There were better fish to fry at the time (e.g., IF, EN, etc.).
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^ Hey man, stop stealing my cliches :) ...and it is " bigger fish to fry"
  • NoizetankNoizetank Member Posts: 48
    edited March 2013
    I'm after some of the modular sets ( well all the ones available) and wanted to know what ones are retiring in the next couple of months so I can get my buying priorities right.
    I'm also after the haunted house does this fit in with the modular sets once its de monster fightered as I like the idea of an old spooky house at the end of a street for all the local lego kids to get freaked out by!
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited March 2013
    ^They were better fish too... :-) Gotta love the IF and EN!!!
  • bigjsdbigjsd Member Posts: 62
    Ok I'll bite. Fire Brigade will never retire. Grand Emporium will probably go soon after that. Buy this two first and you should be good until after Christmas.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited March 2013
    Doesn't anybody read anymore? Maybe there should be Cliffs Notes for Modulars :)
  • starfire2starfire2 Member Posts: 1,335
    bigjsd said:

    Ok I'll bite. Fire Brigade will never retire. Grand Emporium will probably go soon after that. Buy this two first and you should be good until after Christmas.

    The Fire Brigade is not listed in the new Spring Catalog. I think it will get marked down soon.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    He's being facetious.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    No he's not, it will remain in production until we are all dust. FB forever!
    jasor
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