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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    It's kinda like the Brickset sitcom lost one of its main characters. Can we all hit a 'reset' button?
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I am thinking LFT was actually put off when the mods reprimanded the countdown of 10212 going EOL. Let's be honest, this thread has more views than all of the others combined, and LFT was responsible for drawing in a lot of those page views. He can take a lot of the credit for making this site what it is today. His posts were passionate, informative and entertaining. I know he also interacted often in the marketplace. I have a feeling the mods may have bit the hand that fed them. If he pops up on another forum you can bet all the traffic will follow. There are an abundance of dull, sterile forums discussing bricks to choose from....not many have contributors like LFT that hook you into refreshing your browser constantly....hopefully he will return.
    dragonhawkBumblepantsBlueMoonUSADougout
  • kwkwkwkw USAMember Posts: 1,177
    ^I don't think it was the Mods that drove him away, but the people who were throwing negative and disrespectful comments aimed at him and others on this forum. This forum used to be a place of civil and thoughtful discussion but a few bad apples left a bad taste in his mouth (and others). I am not speaking for LFT, but that is my feeling as to why he has left us. :(
  • LostInTranslationLostInTranslation UKMember Posts: 5,557
    Maybe LFT just has real life (as opposed to Lego life :-)) stuff going on at the moment and doesn't have the time for the forum. Or is just taking a break/vacation. We all need to do that occasionally, right?
    I think it's wrong to speculate as to what "drove him away". But I guess speculation is what this thread is all about :-)
    MathBuildery2joshmadforLEGODougoutYellowcastle
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,939
    I think there are more people here that miss LFTs input than are not bothered that he's taking some time off. I see that he's been in for a look frequently as I see new "like" icons on some posts with his icon. I hope to see him contributing again here really soon. I think this forum in general has been weighted towards at minimum the hobbyist reseller, with lots of threads related to reselling, whether they be for ebay topics, shouting out a bargain etc. There are other forums out there that may be better suited to those that seem to despise reselling in general.

    I occasionally pop in on Eurobricks - that place is all about the build - prices and reselling almost never get a mention and half the threads seem to be for showcasing MOCs (my main reason for taking a look).

    You do see some people coming in here purely to sell their stuff. They pop in, say their hellos and then list their stuff, never to be hard from again. Those are the types of members that offer little to the forum IMO.

    I've been a bit quiet myself lately - i'm in the middle of a garage conversion that i'm doing 90% of the graft for (everything but the plastering, and it has been eating into my free time a lot lately. Hopefully i'll find a bargain 10221 soon to get me back into building of the ABS kind again!

    Come back soon LFT!
    y2joshxeeeej
  • pvancil27pvancil27 Member Posts: 588
    Would hope I'm not one of the ones theat drove him off, I disagreed with the whole reseller thing but always tried to be reasonable and not make it personal.
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,345



    You do see some people coming in here purely to sell their stuff. They pop in, say their hellos and then list their stuff, never to be hard from again. Those are the types of members that offer little to the forum IMO.

    They offer little in terms of engaging with and improving the forum, but they do give the opportunity for active members to snag a bargain - I've haggled several down to low prices :)
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,359
    Maybe we should have an LFT Memorial thread and share our favorite memories of him. I'll start: "He once sold me a Death Star for a good price. However, he wasn't sure whether or not it was going to EOL soon."
    y2josh
  • rchaddrchadd Member Posts: 187
    i think when fire brigade finally does go EOL there will be a real glut on the after market. i think this is one that everyone has been stocking up on in anticipation. i doubt this set will follow previous trends with the modulars. over supply and demand will keep the resale prices low on this one.
  • rchaddrchadd Member Posts: 187

    I think it's pretty obvious why the Fire Brigade is still out..... PEOPLE KEEP BUYING IT! I think comparing it to any other modular at this point seems kinda silly.

    and how many of those buying are speculators?


  • chrisdojochrisdojo Member Posts: 168
    I do recall LFT saying a while ago that he was planning on paring back reselling because it was so time consuming, that he hadn't built an actual set in a couple of months. I hope he enjoys his respite.
    Dougout
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    prevere said:

    If you wait long enough, FB will be worth it. Those who need to dump the set will. It might take 3-5 years, but it will be worth 2x RRP+.

    Just to put some perspective here, shooting to "double your money" on the FB, assuming a few things:

    a) Bought at RRP ($150)
    b) Selling fees are 15% (could be less, but 15% is safe)
    c) Shipping costs are a wash (i.e. you charge the exact amount it costs to pack/ship)
    d) Sales tax is a wash
    d) No charge for "my time" to stock/package/etc.

    To double the $150 investment, you have to pull in $300 net, which is 15% under gross due to the fees, so the selling price would have to be about $353 (which is about 2.35 times RRP).

    Let's say it takes 5 years to get to $353 (this would be from the point of purchase, not necessarily EOL), by using the rule of 72, 5 years to double means the corresponding annual percentage rate would be about 14.4%. If it happens in 4 years, 18%. 3 years, 24%. 1 year, 72%! If it took 10 years, that's still a 7.2% return.

    Even at 10 years yielding a 7.2% return, that's not bad.

    This is a simple analysis, as there are MANY more factors to consider for risk including changes to the assumptions above (you paid more or less than RRP, you have to pay for it to be stored, stock gets damaged, you have other set "dogs" that drive down your overall profits, buyers scam you for a loss, etc.). Also, there's the concept that you have a physical commodity that (in theory) shouldn't spoil or go bad, which is a big plus.
    sidersddPoochymadforLEGO
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited February 2013
    There's also the possibility that he just doesn't see Lego reselling as being all that viable anymore. He's sitting on a lot of inventory that he is probably starting to worry about being able to profit on. I think he took things too far when he started calling the Brickpicker guys idiots.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337

    Maybe LFT just has real life (as opposed to Lego life :-)) stuff going on at the moment and doesn't have the time for the forum. Or is just taking a break/vacation. We all need to do that occasionally, right?

    Maybe he accidentally fed one of those cute Amazon Gund bears after midnight and all hell broke loose.
    thenosPenkid11pharmjodMathBuilderYellowcastle
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,687
    Is it time to rename this thread Predictions on what LFT is doing and will he post again?
    thenosDougoutCrownie
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    mathew said:

    There's also the possibility that he just doesn't see Lego reselling as being all that viable anymore. He's sitting on a lot of inventory that he is probably starting to worry about being able to profit on. I think he took things too far when he started calling the Brickpicker guys idiots.

    Well, that's once stance of his I (and I bet a lot of others here) agree on. ;). We're all entitled to our opinions!
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    @Legofantexas is a very bright guy. He knows enough to not get caught flat footed with a ton of inventory after a bubble bursts. His posts were/are very intelligent and thought provoking. His economic logic cannot be questioned on many occassions. You may disagree with some of his opinions, but his logic is always solid. My guess is he is away taking a deep breath and just lurking.

    Did the Mods really get on him about the countdown? I don;t have time to comb back through the pages and look. I actually found that entertaining and really don't see the harm in it.

    I do like the idea of the LFT memorial thread.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    This thread is getting way off topic.
    forumreaderBumblepantsprincedravenDougout
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,359
    ^You must be new to this particular thread if off-topic surprises you :)
    wagnerml2Pitfall69sidersddmadforLEGOdragonhawkFatMatt
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I've dabbled in the stock market before and never saw the returns I get from selling a Lego set.

    Fire Brigade EOL or @LegoFanTexas coming back...Predictions anyone??

    I'm trying to stay on topic...wait...what is the topic again?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^You should put them in the Marketplace.
    wagnerml2
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Hmmm.....maybe LFT got picked up to do a reality show.....Brick Wars:Texas.
  • Chang405Chang405 Member Posts: 81
    I would be careful about investing in LFT's comments. We don't know that he is truely EOLed and he could decide to make another batch of comments which would reduce your investment value. Heck, you may even need to sell at a steep loss. ;)
  • jasonord69ajasonord69a UKMember Posts: 422
    I'm thinking that somebody should make a @Legofantexas statue (minifigure size of course). Predictions of the future value of that? Or even a Ninjago style shrine so we can pay our respects if he never returns.
  • MatthewMatthew Cheshire, UKAdministrator Posts: 3,734
    Could we try and skip the whole withdrawal stage please, and get back to LEGO. I'm sure LFT will be back in time.
    LostInTranslationMinifigsMeprincedravenVaderXDougout
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    @Matthew - BUT IT HURTS SO BADDDDD!!!! :)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,707
    Pitfall69 said:

    I've dabbled in the stock market before and never saw the returns I get from selling a Lego set.

    Fire Brigade EOL or @LegoFanTexas coming back...Predictions anyone??

    I'm trying to stay on topic...wait...what is the topic again?

    Whats the 'over under' on these?

    I doubt that LFT is gone due to 'negativity'. and I think there are many possible reasons why he is not posting. That being said, I would be shocked to hear him say it is due to the negative comments.

    I just hope that whatever the reason LFT is not posting is a minor one and not a serious one.

    Maybe he is building a life size house with all of the brick from his FBs?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,707
    edited February 2013
    Back on topic (kinda anyway) seeing that retailers (well Amazon and apparently now LEGO) appear to be cracking down on the 'resellers', I'm sure much of this is fallout from the minecraft situation last year (as others have noted)
    However does this mean that AFOLs that buy sets on discount solely for parts for creations are also going to suffer?
    I wonder if this will also be enforced at LEGO stores as well?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    ^It will slow some of the mass hoarding during EOL week - so to speak - i.e. like with UCS IS. I went balls to the wall with DA at the end and got a slap on the wrist from Amazon, but it was well worth it.

    Discounts are great, but if you really love a set, just go buy some here and there. And save up for a kiddie fund for when those super-duper deals come around.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited February 2013
    wagnerml2 said:

    @Legofantexas is a very bright guy. He knows enough to not get caught flat footed with a ton of inventory after a bubble bursts.

    I don't know about that. He seemed to get caught up in his own hype. I know he was sitting on a bunch of Pharaoh's Quest and towards the end and he was trying to clear out his Imperial Flagships. I remember him saying that IF would possibly hit $500 this last Christmas.
  • lulwutlulwut Member Posts: 417
    edited February 2013
    Pretty sure that brickpicker site drove LFT out of the Lego investing market.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Hahahaha... sure they did :)
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited February 2013
    Frankly this thread is no where near as interesting or enjoyable to follow as it was a year ago. Very few posts actually have useful information in them anymore, and most of them warrant skimming. Now we have captain negative posting every 20 posts (not you Pitfall, you post every 10 posts and I actually read yours, nor are you negative:), someone who was vehemently opposed to the idea of reselling when he joined last year. Now it consists of random babblings into off topic conversation which is fine, but has grown old. There is also the regular posting of some newbie reseller who is too lazy to do there own homework which also leads to a rehash of conversation that has been discussed 10 other times in this thread........I'm tired of of reading about when the DS and FB are going to EOL:)
    ......and in response to a subject that was discussed a while back, yes there is a smattering of posters on this forum who give misinformation from time to time in order to misdirect. Don't be so naive to think there aren't. Some of the best misinformation is a little lie hidden in a lot of truth.
    y2joshVaderXBumblepantsgmpiratedragonhawkthornieLegoboy
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    edited February 2013
    Well then, lets get this train back on the tracks. Will the reissue of the Sail Barge and Gunship really have an effect on the previous versions? I had a very clean used copy of #7676 that I had up on Ebay last week and it only went for $127. THis is $50 to $60 under some that I sold a few months back. I don;t think anyone probably has these sets stockpiled, but sailbarge and gunships have been strong preformers.

    I know this came up awhile back and many had opinions, but this is a concrete example. Is is an indicator or an outlier? Thoughts?
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    edited February 2013
    I think it will definitely have an impact. I'll use Jabba's Palace as an example. I remember when I bought a sealed copy of the original the prices were in the $225-$275 range. I ended up selling it for only $170 (news of a new one was already circulated). I had it listed on ebay with a best offer option and I barely averaged 1 offer a month. Regardless of whether a new version of a set is better or not, the fact remains there are now 2 options (or however many versions of a set there are) for a Lego fan to obtain. Buy the newer, easily acquired version at msrp/sale price or pay a lot more for the older version.

    Collectors will still want to get the old sets but I think a lot of fans don't care and would rather get the newer model that is usually better at a much nicer price point. Plus, when a new version of a set comes out a lot of sellers usually try to dump the previous version which results in a lot of competition, setting up a buyers market and resulting in dropping price points.

    For example I had some interest in picking up the older Sail barge but now I'm going to most likely just buy the new one.
    madforLEGO
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I am curious about the Super Heroes sets that could EOL? There are several that have been out for over a year, and I'm betting there could be some surprise EOLing of a few sets.

    Also, which has the best potential for aftermarket: Marvel or DC? I like DC better, although I always read Marvel growing up. Gotta like Batman...
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    I could see most of the Avengers sets going away as we get closer to the release of Iron Man 3.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    As long as I have one rendition of a ship I'm good to go. I must say, the new Jabbas Sail Barge is awful, although the minifigures are awesome.

    @FatMat Yes, there are some "Debbie Downers" on here (I love those SNL skits) I try to make most of my posts on topic and positive, but it is hard sometimes. As much as it was criticized, the IS countdown was funny.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I was not impressed with the first pictures of The Lone Ranger sets, but now I like them a lot. I have a good feeling that these sets might out perform most of the POTC sets.

    The new Creator House looks like a winner as well.
    Legoboy
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    edited February 2013
    ^ I have to say they really did a fantastic job on the Lone Ranger. There really is not a dud in the bunch, and the Cavalry set will be ridiculously popular for army builders.

    the showdown set is an amazing 8.5 cents per piece
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    Pitfall69 said:

    I was not impressed with the first pictures of The Lone Ranger sets, but now I like them a lot. I have a good feeling that these sets might out perform most of the POTC sets.

    The new Creator House looks like a winner as well.

    both the family house and the tree house look really cool, and make up for the dud of a shack they just released

  • SiESiE Member Posts: 238
    That new barge is a stinker. It looks tiny compared to the original which is a fantastic set. The old jabba will always be worth more in the after market but it has slumped a little. I only have one used set and I must admit it occurred to me to sell it as soon as the new one was announced but the original is brilliant. I reckon we will see a lot of no minifigure listings of the new set and people may mix and match to create a great Jedi scene.

    I'm considering starting to buy a few SSD's next. It's gonna go this year and its size alone should mean it does well in the after market. I have also been wondering what the affect of the new films will have on the price of sets in the after market. The last set of films created a surge in value of the original Kenner toys. Maybe these films will have a similar affect on the lego sets. Maybe a good reason to start heavily investing again in Star Wars, i have cut back a lot in the last 12 months and have invested elsewhere other than IS.
  • RocketBaseAlphaRocketBaseAlpha Member Posts: 9
    Fire Brigade is nearly done: I was at my local Lego store today (Glendale, California) to buy the Grand Emporium for my son... okay, okay, for myself... and saw that FB had a "Retiring Soon" placard next to it.

    An employee said they'd been told it would stop shipping to stores in late March/April. She said it was to be discontinued in favor of the Cinema Palace.

    I realize that this, because it's my first post on Brickset (after a few months of lurking), probably looks like trolling/crying wolf ("Popular set is EOL'D!!!!"), but I promise you the only thing being trolled is my bank account -- I left the store with one GE and one FB.

    You see -- what if the Emporium were to catch fire and no firemen were available to put out the blaze? That potential tragedy has been averted.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,687
    LR stagecoach could well be popular too. Decent minifigs and a nice vehicle build to go with it. And at the suggest price, it looks like a steal.

    Maybe that will be the problem - too many people will grab a few for later resale.

    Even if the movie bombs, the sets will fit into cowboy type scenarios well.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I would love if Lego would come out with an exclusive Classic Lone Ranger and Tonto minifigure. Maybe as a Comic Con or Toy Fair Exclusive.
    y2josh
  • CrownieCrownie WA StateMember Posts: 228
    CCC said:

    Is it time to rename this thread Predictions on what LFT is doing and will he post again?

    Well, that is kind of what's going through my mind every time I open up this thread... ;-)

    I am curious about the Super Heroes sets that could EOL? There are several that have been out for over a year, and I'm betting there could be some surprise EOLing of a few sets.

    I'm seeing the Quinjet, Captain America, and the Catwoman sets heavily clearanced around here; but I'd say the Marvel sets will disappear before DC - especially as far as Batman is concerned. Long term, I see the DC sets doing better, because of Batman. The sets are far more fun and creative, and if the past couple decades are any indication, Batman seems to have more cultural 'staying power' than most of the Avengers.

    ---

    The Lone Ranger sets look absolutely spectacular. If you haven't seen the videos from Toyfair on FBTB yet, take a look: http://www.fbtb.net/2013/02/13/the-lone-rangers-videos-explode-onto-youtube/

    I see these doing just as well as the Indiana Jones sets EOL, regardless of the movies' performance...
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    Crownie said:

    I'm seeing the Quinjet, Captain America, and the Catwoman sets heavily clearanced around here; but I'd say the Marvel sets will disappear before DC - especially as far as Batman is concerned. Long term, I see the DC sets doing better, because of Batman. The sets are far more fun and creative, and if the past couple decades are any indication, Batman seems to have more cultural 'staying power' than most of the Avengers.

    I think it could go either way, honestly. All of the sets are pretty poor in my opinion, with the main draw being the minifigs. To that end, the Marvel sets are doing a much better job of offering a larger selection of different characters. On the other hand, Batman pretty much single-handedly carries the disaster that is DC comics, so the abundance of Batman may, as you've said, work well in the end.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ and ^^ Helpful info, because I was never into super heroes or comics. From the outside looking in I thought Batman would do well. What with the Batcave and Arkham Asylum. Personally I like Ironman too, but I don't have a clue if his sets or minifigs will end up in demand after EOL.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    edited February 2013
    This first wave of Marvel & DC will be long-term favorites of many a kid and AFOL. As y2josh said though, these are minifig driven, and that is the key to which ones will produce more profit in the end.

    By way of comparison, let's look at the initial Star Wars offering in year 1, circa 1999. Little sets like 7101 went for $6 and mid-size sets went for $30, like 7151. Could you have picked out the winners before they EOL'd?

    http://www.bricklink.com/catalogList.asp?itemYear=1999&catString=65&catType=S
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