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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    edited February 2013
    Sprung on one with a gift card as well. Will need to watch the TH to see if the price goes down again
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,891
    TH should retire when....maybe 2016?
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,904
    ^ha! At the rate they are going probably. I snagged two from TRU during bogo and then managed to get two from Walmart much later during the insane sale for ~$120 a piece. At that price I didn't care if it stays for 4 or 5 years. You never find modulars for 40% off.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432

    sidersdd said:

    Maersk Train popped back in stock this morning at ToysRUs.com.

    Appears gone now, wonder if it was a mix up, or they found a few in the back (although I think most of those probably wind up on eBay)?
    Dunno, I had placed an order for two of them. We'll see if they deliver.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ yeah, it was at 154 when i bought it
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    I'm watching the TH still, if the price drops again Ill be contacting Amazon for the price correction.
    Still 155 still is not bad for such a set..
    While that 120 was an insane price, who knows if it will ever drop that low again or if you will catch it at that price when it does drop to that...
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    So what are people's thoughts on the monster fighters theme? The more I think about it the more I think the vampyre castle could do really well in the aftermarket as its just so unique... And I could imagine a lot of different types of collectors liking having a spooky theme in their collections.. Interested to hear the communities views.

    Lp
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,904
    $155 is pretty good. 20% off for modulars is a good buy, especially if it is to build. Not bad for resale if you can get close to EOL but as we are learning, that is challenging
  • timinchicagotiminchicago USAMember Posts: 239
    In addition to Town Hall being $154.39 at Amazon, I notice that the "List Price" is $179.99 and not $199.99 like it is at LEGO [email protected] Not sure what Amazon is basing their list price on. Is this just a mistake on Amazon's part?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,453

    So what are people's thoughts on the monster fighters theme? The more I think about it the more I think the vampyre castle could do really well in the aftermarket as its just so unique... And I could imagine a lot of different types of collectors liking having a spooky theme in their collections.. Interested to hear the communities views.

    Lp

    For me, HH is better than the castle. The building itself is made from bricks in a decent colour, rather than panels. Although the bats are nice, they are too similar to the CMF line. And the butler in HH is just wonderful. Of course there is the price difference issue. I think the castle has been stored in quite large numbers too, since it has been available on large discount, whereas HH hasn't.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    edited February 2013
    ^-- Ive noticed this too. I do not think it is a mistake, as I think that Walmart.com has the same 180 price.. I think it is just competing against Walmart's price points.
    That and quite frankly 200 is a big number for people when it comes to a mod I think.


    That and the TH just jumped to 179.00... Dunno if will drop again
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited February 2013
    What about #9471 Uruk-Hai Army? I consider it a Battle Pack. Which means that some people will buy more than 1 set. I think it will be one of the best performing LOTR sets when it retires. Any thoughts?

    If you think it will do well when it retires, what would be a good price to get the sets for?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    edited February 2013
    Im guessing it may be better quality than a battlepack.. With the added bonus being a castle wall to expand Helms deep, or whatever castle you may have I think.
    I have been waiting for these to drop in price somewhere to get a few.
    But I still think that the Orc Forge will be the better seller due to the White Hand armor, plus the fact only Target has them.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Orc Forge. Excellent point. Doubt I'll be able to get it at a discount. Which means I probably won't get any for resell.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    ^ True, but because it will not be on sale much that may in turn cause less to buy it... I guess there are arguments on both ends to that. But since it too is an 'army builder' then Im guessing that they still may have decent demand even after EOL.. there are always VIP points as well....
    I would also say watch for BOGO says at Target or set sales, they are rare but the Zombies set is doing pretty well for anyone that managed to get them for 30 each.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,904
    The zombie set is doing well period. Doesn't matter if you got it on sale or payed RRP. Sale just sweetens the pot.
    Pitfall69
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    In Australia The Zombies is not doing as well as in the US yet, partly due to the store that has the exclusive still having them in stock in a lot of locations. It's a $69.99 RRP (is sold at $58 in store) prices are only just hitting $80 on the secondary market at the moment. I only have a few but if I could get them for $30 I would be stocking up.

  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    Received shipping confirmation for the Maersk trains
    BrianmadforLEGOFollowsClosely
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    cloaked7 said:

    What about #9471 Uruk-Hai Army? I consider it a Battle Pack. Which means that some people will buy more than 1 set. I think it will be one of the best performing LOTR sets when it retires. Any thoughts?

    If you think it will do well when it retires, what would be a good price to get the sets for?

    9471 is a homerun in my opinion. 6 minifigs, all of them essentially useful for army building, in a $30 RRP set

    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^I grabbed 4 when TRU had a BOGO sale, surprisingly they weren't marked up and I got one for free as a gift. I plan on getting more, but I think they would pair well with Helms Deep as one listing instead of selling individually. As I said before, it is better for me to list one big item/sell/ship then it is for smaller items.
  • rchaddrchadd Member Posts: 187
    Will Fire Brigade be going when the Palace Cinema is released?
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    rchadd said:

    Will Fire Brigade be going when the Palace Cinema is released?

    From various sources it will be available throughout the entire year. No information on 2014 yet.

  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,079
    Hmm i'm not really sure about #9471 it seems like everybody who's into army-building already bought a couple of these or will buy the figures solo (the Uruk's are pretty cheap on BL)! I guess the Forge will do better IF the printed shield/helmet will not get redone in another set!
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    10229 - Winter Cottage, is this thing gone for good?
  • bigjsdbigjsd Member Posts: 62
    Amazon doesn't have any Fire Brigade in stock. Will they get more considering they seemed to be dumping it the past month for $119.00 ???
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    ^ They ran out before at $119.00 and I think that they'll be back for at least one more round. The question is if they will drop the price again. Walmart is currently out of stock and Target is back up to $150.
  • CrownieCrownie WA StateMember Posts: 228
    edited February 2013
    ^ I'd feel pretty safe betting that, yes Amazon will certainly get more Fire Brigade in stock. For now. I think the previous prediction that pointed to Fall 2013 sounds about right.

    Of course, everyone seems to be so jumpy that the minute a seller runs out of stock, we all cry "EOL!? EOL!?"

    It's all a bit silly. (And pretty darn funny.)
  • TheCultLeaderTheCultLeader Member Posts: 48
    a
    tensor said:

    10229 - Winter Cottage, is this thing gone for good?

    It was just released Oct 2012. It will likely be around for another couple of holiday seasons.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    I'm not heavily armed with Ninjago, but I'm wondering if Chima will be successful enough to make it a distant memory by this Christmas. Also wondering how long the green wave will last if no new sets are coming out this year. #9450 has been well priced lately, making it hard to be disciplined. I guess by summer we should know how much of hit Chima is, and hopefully Ninjago 2014 plans will filter out soon thereafter. Basically I'm babbling here to avoid spending a crippling amount on Amazon.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited February 2013
    Crownie said:

    ^ I'd feel pretty safe betting that, yes Amazon will certainly get more Fire Brigade in stock. For now. I think the previous prediction that pointed to Fall 2013 sounds about right.

    Of course, everyone seems to be so jumpy that the minute a seller runs out of stock, we all cry "EOL!? EOL!?"

    It's all a bit silly. (And pretty darn funny.)

    Is it silly? Zombies? Winter Bakery anyone?

  • CrownieCrownie WA StateMember Posts: 228
    tensor said:

    Crownie said:

    ^ I'd feel pretty safe betting that, yes Amazon will certainly get more Fire Brigade in stock. For now. I think the previous prediction that pointed to Fall 2013 sounds about right.

    Of course, everyone seems to be so jumpy that the minute a seller runs out of stock, we all cry "EOL!? EOL!?"

    It's all a bit silly. (And pretty darn funny.)

    Is it silly? Zombies? Winter Bakery anyone?

    I'm not saying there isn't money to be made, and I'd be lying if I said I wish I didn't own a closet full of both of those sets, but from an - occasionally removed perspective - I do find humor in this. ;-)
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    Winter Bakery should not have surprised anyone. It followed the same 2 year pattern the Toy Shop did. Next year the Post Office will be offered for the final time as well if the pattern holds true. Only difference I saw was stock ran out prior to a price reduction for the Bakery but if you wanted one the writing was on the wall.

    Zombies on the other hand was a joke. 3-4 month availability and exclusive on top of it. Not sure what Lego was thinking there.
    legoprods
  • JP3804JP3804 Member Posts: 332
    This happened twice in 2010.

    3222 Helo and Limo was a Walmart exclusive and was only out 3 months

    8403 City House was a Targat exclusive and was around for 4 months
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    It's odd because there are quite a few other exclusives that stick around for quite some time like the Landspeeder or Orc Forge. I guess if you want a set that is exclusive for your own collection it is best to pick it up within the first few months.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited February 2013
    Renny said:

    Winter Bakery should not have surprised anyone. It followed the same 2 year pattern the Toy Shop did.

    I do not see a retired label on the Winter Bakery, only sold out. It would not surprise me in the least to see it available again this year, and even next. The only pattern I see this set has followed is it is available fall thru Xmas...the same as every other Winter set.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^Has Lego tagged every set they are no longer producing? With that logic we should see The Zombies come back then...right?
  • Tevans333Tevans333 Member Posts: 152

    Renny said:

    Winter Bakery should not have surprised anyone. It followed the same 2 year pattern the Toy Shop did.

    I do not see a retired label on the Winter Bakery, only sold out. It would not surprise me in the least to see it available again this year, and even next. The only pattern I see this set has followed is it is available fall thru Xmas...the same as every other Winter set.

    Being that it was only sold online ths year and not at lego stores is a good indication of its retirement.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Renny said:

    Winter Bakery should not have surprised anyone. It followed the same 2 year pattern the Toy Shop did. Next year the Post Office will be offered for the final time as well if the pattern holds true. Only difference I saw was stock ran out prior to a price reduction for the Bakery but if you wanted one the writing was on the wall.

    Two data points do not make a pattern unfortunately, merely a coincidence. Plus, there was an additional difference with the Bakery, as it went out of stock a month or more earlier than did the Toy Shop.


  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Just MO. I believe the marketing folks at TLG are giving this line the modular treatment. As far as I can tell the set has no pieces that are no longer in production. Again all just my opinion. Good luck.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,904
    I'd say it went out of stock a month earlier than Toy Shop because LEGO has gotten better at inventory this year. They blew the Toy Shop out in clearance type pricing when it retired. Better to sell all you have at full price than have to dump a ton at clearance. Of course they could bring them back, but I would wager the Winter Village theme will be primarily 2 years each set then done.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    Well Id say that with LEGO who knows what is the 'pattern'. Seeing as the FB has been out for 3 going on 4 years now, if I am not mistaken.
    I would not be surprised if the Bakery comes back.
    I kinda hope it does to be honest. I though I had bought many more than I had. I got a a few on discount over the past few years but gave a couple away as Christmas gifts, so in the end I think I only have 1 or 2. I think I was waiting for them to go on clearance again but they sold out really quick, Wonder if the speculators decided to buy as many as they could in anticipation that they would be gone after this year.
    Would not mind it if they came back and I could get a few more, it is a neat little set.
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,417
    I think it's pretty obvious why the Fire Brigade is still out..... PEOPLE KEEP BUYING IT! I think comparing it to any other modular at this point seems kinda silly.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    so... by your reasoning, the bakery should no longer be out because you assume people are not going to buy it?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2013
    There was a thread (or news) back in the Fall of 2011 that stated TLG planned to EOL the Winter themed sets after three Christmas seasons. The same thread stated that the WTS was to be EOL'd (which it was) and that the WB would be EOL'd during the 2012 Christmas season (which it appears to have been). Of course, TLG can change their mind anytime they want, but I would personally be surprised to see the WB on shelves again...and next year the the WPO may be next so plan accordingly.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,453
    Diggydoes said:

    Hmm i'm not really sure about #9471 it seems like everybody who's into army-building already bought a couple of these or will buy the figures solo (the Uruk's are pretty cheap on BL)! I guess the Forge will do better IF the printed shield/helmet will not get redone in another set!

    It wasn't exclusive in the UK, and it has been on sale with a couple of retailers (which brought it down to about $30US converted). Remember also that in the UK we had the uruk-hai poly in the Sun promo, which has meant that there are loads of cheap ones floating about for army builders.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited February 2013
    ^ @CCC The poly you mentioned, is it Uruk-Hai with Ballista #30211 ? We got that in the U.S. too, but either I didn't know about it until they were gone, the supply was low, or re-sellers snatched them up. Because I never saw them in stores and only got 1 at a marked up price on eBay. Would have snagged a lot if they were available to me at RRP, but alas they weren't.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,453
    ^ yes. This (I believe) is what is responsible for keeping the price of uruks low.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Speaking of polys and army building. Would like to see a Rohan Soldier in a poly. The Mirkwood Elf poly was great, alas it's from The Hobbit. Would like to see a good guy poly from LOTR.
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    edited February 2013
    Anyone else wondering when MMV will start moving up in value? I have a few of these and many others do as well as it was an over produced set that was available forever. Still a great set in my opinion. I've noticed they're selling in the $120-130 range on eBay here in the U.S., which doesn't leave much room for profit after fees even if you bought MMV at $90. I know tons of people have this set and I'm not planning to unload any of mine for quite sometime (at least a year or so). I'm curious to see what it will be going for later this year when the holiday's approach. Opinions? I'm also mad I didn't stock up on more QAR's, Maersk's, and DA's than I did. All 3 seem to be doing exceptionally well.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    sidersdd said:

    Received shipping confirmation for the Maersk trains

    Two fresh Maersk Trains appeared at my doorstep today. Set boxes were a little beat up, and somebody slapped a sticky note saying "Slot this" on one of them. I guess that's their way of saying "up yours reseller" as I couldn't remove it without tearing a bit off the box.
    FatMattBrickarmor
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