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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,804
    rchadd said:

    Any insights on the VW van? It is on my to-buy list but I have a backlog to complete. Can I afford to wait a couple of months or so before I buy it?

    Its a great model and fun to build.
    I would say that it probably will be out at least until end of the year..
    That being said, who knows what LEGO is thinking these days and you may just want to get it if you want one for yourself.
    If you are in the US, check Amazon for them and pounce when it hits 99.99

  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    tom4086 said:

    I've reserved the last Droid Escape #9490 at my nearest Argos today and it's now disappeared from their catalog, could this be an indication its due to EOL?

    Doubtful...it came out last year this time and would have gone to "Sold Out" status on [email protected] within the last month if it were going EOL this time of year.

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,902
    ^^I like the VW Camper a lot too. $100 is a good spot for that guy.
    legoprods
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    We haven't had a Western Theme in such a long time. I think it will do very well as long the sets are intriguing enough on their own without having to watch the movie. I'm really looking forward to it.

  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited January 2013
    ^ Yup, they can be snagged for $100. That's what I paid for the ones I have. Just not sure when will be the BEST time to stock up on them. :-)
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    edited January 2013
    roxio said:

    How about 8038 Endor? I was sat on a stack hoping for a Xmas 2012 price spike that didn't really materialise. Average buying price was £50 so I should be ok in the long run. Maybe an Ewok Village set would help ;)

    I was sat on 20 but decided to bail out on these. Just 2 left now. Paid £57 on all mine and was selling for £100 to £110 so £28 to £38 profit per set. I packed all my Christmas sales stuff in August and obviously this takes up so much more space so something had to be sacrificed. I decided these had to go. I shifted them and put it into #10217's and #4195's. I had run out of space. I also use boxes for packing which I get for free but they are 240mm deep so ultimately once packed 1 x #8038 was taking up the space of 3.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Yup, the Endor set surprised me too. They seemed to sell better for me the Christmas after they first came out vs when they retired. Maybe because supply was limited then? I think it's a great set of a great movie scene. Plus, it has lots of minifigs and great playability. It's as if people's interest moved from the Endor set to other sets. Or, maybe LEGO cranked up production on it and there was an over supply.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    ^ It's the gamble. I could pull £120 or £125 on them at the end of October so thought they could do £150 late November but the over supply came then. You keep learning, and I keep saying it's the price you buy them at that saves you and keeps you in profit. Just like someone else keep saying and I can't remember who, patience!
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    wagnerml2 said:

    The Non Star Wars or HP licensed sets are a crap-shoot. I think that the Lone Ranger could end up like PoP at the end of the day. PoP at least had some rarer pieces and colors going for it. I STILL find PoP sets in the odd TRU waiting to be given a good home. We live in a society (At least in the US) where the attention span is very short. Lone Ranger will be hot for a few weeks and then the interst in the movie will pass. What happens to the sets at that point, cowboys or no cowboys, will be interesting to watch.

    I don't know about comparing TLR with PoP is very reliable. TLR is a pretty long-standing entertainment icon that's been around for many decades, though in fairness, it's been a while since it's been "hot." Then there's the general theme of the American Old West, which always comes around again in popularity. Heck, even I went and played Red Dead Redemption again just because TLR got me excited about the West again.

    Plus (apparently) the train in the theme is going to be a full-oval, which broadens it's appeal even more. I wonder if it'll be PF compatible.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    ^^ while i agree partially consider this, TLR represents a reboot of a traditional US series from decades prior. Speed Racer represented a reboot of a beloved cartoon series from decades prior. TLR has cowboys (appealing), Speed Racer had Racecars (also appealing). We all know how Speed Racer went. It will be intersting to see how it goes. I love the look of TLR sets and I am excited, moreso than I have been for any Lego release in quite awhile.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    As an aside, for those of us sportsfans in the St. Louis area, "TLR" was the old sports forum abbreviation for Tony LARussa when he managed the Cardinals. It's funny to me to see it in another forum on lego!
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,804
    I think that any LEGO train that is mean for train tracks can be converted for PF in one form or another
    Dougout
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950

    I think that any LEGO train that is mean for train tracks can be converted for PF in one form or another

    I think that is obvious, but being compatible and being convertible are two different things. The Horizon Express is compatible with PF while the Ghost Train is convertible to PF. Here's hoping the Tony LaRussa Train is the former.
    Kanohi
  • charlatan13charlatan13 Member Posts: 118
    Well, I had hoped to order Orc Forge online Friday (payday) only to look tonight to find it out-of-stock at Target. I then expanded my online search, found a Target three towns over that stated 'limited availability' and was able to grab the only set off the shelf. [email protected] still lists them as available but it has been my experience that once it becomes out-of-stock online through Target your chances really are hit-or-miss.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    ^ FWIW, it was out-of-stock on-line at Target about 2-3 weeks ago as well. And out-of-stock in almost all stores around me (Indianapolis). But shelves seem to be restocked now.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890

    Tevans333 said:

    kim43235 said:

    Shuttle Adventure (10213) is available at [email protected]
    http://www.ebay.com/itm/LEGO-Creator-Shuttle-Adventure-10213-/350700190228

    I know this is a previous version of 10231. Do you think we can ask Lego for service pack to make it like 10231?

    Anyone think this one wil rise as well as SE?

    I'm more curious about the fact that TRU somehow had 26 10213s in stock, considering they have been discontinued for at least a year...
    Wonder if there will be 26 cancellation notices

    I ordered 2 of these and one came today. Well, kind of. I got a 10231. So that answers that question. I'm not complaining though. :)
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    I ordered two that came yesterday -- was afraid to order more :(
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    gmpirate said:

    I ordered two that came yesterday -- was afraid to order more :(

    So no 10213s for you either I'm assuming?
    Don't feel bad, there was a limit of 2. A least there was for me when I tried to order a 3rd. :)
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ I'll have to open the box tomorrow to see what I received. They actually just came in a Lego case pack.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,994
    Are there actually many cowboys in The Lone Ranger sets? Obviously there is the title character, but the others seem to be bandits and then the soldiers.

    I'm glad I saved a small army of S6 bandits, especially as they have no yellow skin showing on their torsos, so it is an easy head exchange to get a army of compatible fleshie bandits.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,804
    So I'm curious on thoughts about #10195 has it hit its ceiling?
    I do not recall it getting past 400 dollars, not as long as I can remember.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,804
    Bandit said:

    Tevans333 said:

    kim43235 said:

    Shuttle Adventure (10213) is available at [email protected]
    http://www.ebay.com/itm/LEGO-Creator-Shuttle-Adventure-10213-/350700190228

    I know this is a previous version of 10231. Do you think we can ask Lego for service pack to make it like 10231?

    Anyone think this one wil rise as well as SE?

    I'm more curious about the fact that TRU somehow had 26 10213s in stock, considering they have been discontinued for at least a year...
    Wonder if there will be 26 cancellation notices

    I ordered 2 of these and one came today. Well, kind of. I got a 10231. So that answers that question. I'm not complaining though. :)
    Ahh, so apparently a bit of dyslexia at the TRU eBay account then?
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379

    So I'm curious on thoughts about #10195 has it hit its ceiling?
    I do not recall it getting past 400 dollars, not as long as I can remember.

    I think that it is doubtful that this set has hit its ceiling...there have been some sales above $400 and the price has rose steadily if somewhat slowly over the past year. This is one set whose EOL price likely reflects the presence of additional resellers in the market. There hasn't been a great shortage of sets available and the price reflects that. However, as the available sets get sold, the price will surely climb further...how much and how quickly is anyone's guess.

  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    This past summer 10195 was hitting upwards of around $460 for some completed listings.
  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,119
    edited January 2013
    I have to agree that the Target exclusive Orc Forge #9476 will be a winner. Its the first set that I ever invested in on a big scale. It's sold out at Target online and very hard to find in stores. Its at a price point that I think was a little high for the set so it might have discouraged buyers.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890

    Bandit said:

    Tevans333 said:

    kim43235 said:

    Shuttle Adventure (10213) is available at [email protected]
    http://www.ebay.com/itm/LEGO-Creator-Shuttle-Adventure-10213-/350700190228

    I know this is a previous version of 10231. Do you think we can ask Lego for service pack to make it like 10231?

    Anyone think this one wil rise as well as SE?

    I'm more curious about the fact that TRU somehow had 26 10213s in stock, considering they have been discontinued for at least a year...
    Wonder if there will be 26 cancellation notices

    I ordered 2 of these and one came today. Well, kind of. I got a 10231. So that answers that question. I'm not complaining though. :)
    Ahh, so apparently a bit of dyslexia at the TRU eBay account then?
    LOL apparently. I wonder if I complain if they'll give me some % off or something.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    Bandit said:

    Bandit said:

    Tevans333 said:

    kim43235 said:

    Shuttle Adventure (10213) is available at [email protected]
    http://www.ebay.com/itm/LEGO-Creator-Shuttle-Adventure-10213-/350700190228

    I know this is a previous version of 10231. Do you think we can ask Lego for service pack to make it like 10231?

    Anyone think this one wil rise as well as SE?

    I'm more curious about the fact that TRU somehow had 26 10213s in stock, considering they have been discontinued for at least a year...
    Wonder if there will be 26 cancellation notices

    I ordered 2 of these and one came today. Well, kind of. I got a 10231. So that answers that question. I'm not complaining though. :)
    Ahh, so apparently a bit of dyslexia at the TRU eBay account then?
    LOL apparently. I wonder if I complain if they'll give me some % off or something.
    Ask the for 15% off, you may end up with 51% off ;-)

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,804
    ^--LOL
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^^ LOLOL love it.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,902
    At 51% discount with TRU, you'll be a regular retail price!
    DougoutPenkid11
  • PoochyPoochy USAMember Posts: 479
    ^ Maybe. Consider http://www.toysrus.com/product/index.jsp?productId=17819486, even at the current %60 off (online), it's still above MSRP :).
  • morbiczermorbiczer Member Posts: 50
    legoprods said:

    But cowboy themes may only appeal to a reduced number of people. I don't thing many people in Europe or Asia are appealed much by it.

    When I was a boy 20-25 years ago in Germany, we all played Cowboys and Indians a lot. Not sure how popular Karl May's Winnettou series is in the US, but it used to be very popular with boys in my childhood. No idea about these days though.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    SiE said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    SiE said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    ^Speaking of which...What's the ceiling on the Carousel? Does anyone have some still stock or have sold one recently?

    I sold one outside of ebay for 700 before xmas. Inside your looking at 800. Of course thats for a sealed set. Used can be found for a lot less (450-550)
    $700-800 USD or £'s. Completed listings are showing the Carousel being sold at around $1,100-1,300 and new listings as high as $1,800+

    £ sorry I always forget to mention that. I have another listed on eBay at the moment for £850 and they seem to be going up and up. I am tempted to take it off and wait another 6-12 months.
    £1200 now! Form an orderly queue....
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    ^An incredible set with unique pieces.

  • bri4jennbri4jenn United StatesMember Posts: 96
    @legoBrandonCP I just received my service pack for the shuttle with the stability issues in December 2012. It was well worth the call. The pack contained a fair number of pieces.
  • kim43235kim43235 Member Posts: 165
    JamesJT said:

    SiE said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    SiE said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    ^Speaking of which...What's the ceiling on the Carousel? Does anyone have some still stock or have sold one recently?

    I sold one outside of ebay for 700 before xmas. Inside your looking at 800. Of course thats for a sealed set. Used can be found for a lot less (450-550)
    $700-800 USD or £'s. Completed listings are showing the Carousel being sold at around $1,100-1,300 and new listings as high as $1,800+

    £ sorry I always forget to mention that. I have another listed on eBay at the moment for £850 and they seem to be going up and up. I am tempted to take it off and wait another 6-12 months.
    £1200 now! Form an orderly queue....
    I sold mine (new in open box, sealed bags) at $900 plus shipping. Did I undersold it?
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    CCC said:

    Are there actually many cowboys in The Lone Ranger sets? Obviously there is the title character, but the others seem to be bandits and then the soldiers.

    I'm glad I saved a small army of S6 bandits, especially as they have no yellow skin showing on their torsos, so it is an easy head exchange to get a army of compatible fleshie bandits.

    At least three of the sets have characters with cowboy hats, but most of them are repeats.

    Also, in terms of interest in the line, I think there's quite a bit out there. Every time I check the stats on my blog, some variation of "lego lone ranger" is one of the top search terms.
  • SiESiE Member Posts: 238
    JamesJT said:

    SiE said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    SiE said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    ^Speaking of which...What's the ceiling on the Carousel? Does anyone have some still stock or have sold one recently?

    I sold one outside of ebay for 700 before xmas. Inside your looking at 800. Of course thats for a sealed set. Used can be found for a lot less (450-550)
    $700-800 USD or £'s. Completed listings are showing the Carousel being sold at around $1,100-1,300 and new listings as high as $1,800+

    £ sorry I always forget to mention that. I have another listed on eBay at the moment for £850 and they seem to be going up and up. I am tempted to take it off and wait another 6-12 months.
    £1200 now! Form an orderly queue....
    I raised it based on international prices. Its on the way up again at the moment. Like i said, i was gonna pull it as its going through a lot of movement at the moment. I reckon these will sell for 1000+ from now on. Just gutted its my only one now. I dont think there are many in the wild still sealed.

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,994
    iccarus said:

    CCC said:

    Are there actually many cowboys in The Lone Ranger sets? Obviously there is the title character, but the others seem to be bandits and then the soldiers.

    I'm glad I saved a small army of S6 bandits, especially as they have no yellow skin showing on their torsos, so it is an easy head exchange to get a army of compatible fleshie bandits.

    At least three of the sets have characters with cowboy hats, but most of them are repeats.

    Also, in terms of interest in the line, I think there's quite a bit out there. Every time I check the stats on my blog, some variation of "lego lone ranger" is one of the top search terms.
    I don't doubt their is interest. I just wasn't that excited by the lack of variation in the sets. There are just too many Lone Rangers and Tontos. I guess that is the problem with so few main characters, all the sets have the same ones in. It's a shame there is no variation in the key characters torsos from set to set.

    All the other cowboy hat guys seem to be bandits. I guess I'll wait to see what printing they have on their torsos before deciding whether to get them for cowboys.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    I predict that the Lone Ranger sets will be shelf warmers.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    mathew said:

    I predict that the Lone Ranger sets will be shelf warmers.

    Same here. Id be looking for 80% off to buy.

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,994
    I'll clear the shelves at 70%.
  • ShpadoinkleShpadoinkle 13 hours West of BillundMember Posts: 420
    Depends entirely on how the movie does. I'm not going to play movie critic on here but from what I've seen from the trailer I'll probably wait until it's on basic cable before seeing it.
    legoprods
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Like PoP...
  • Tevans333Tevans333 Member Posts: 152
    Kids aren't into cowboys these days, hell even my generation (mid thirties) wasn't into them. My parents geneartion and older were, so unless these sets are desirable to 40+ old AFOL's I don't see them doing well.

    If the movie is a huge hit (and I really have my doubts), they might do OK, but certainly will see a quick dropoff after the movie dies down as kids have a short attention span. I definitely don't see any long term potential short of a rare minifig or two that AFOL's may want.

    Of course this is all biased by my lack of interest in cowboys, when I was a kid it was all transformers, TMNT, Star Wars etc.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^ exactly. I'm dubious of this theme. Kids are *so* not into cowboys and indians. If anything, it will spark interest from AFOLs. I thought the movie looked like it was going to be ok at first, and then I saw Tonto, with that crazy face paint and giant dead bird stuck on his head. That's the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen. Saturday Night Live couldn't even make that up. :)
    madforLEGO
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,804
    Agreed, in trying to 'kidify' it using Depp they are going to alienate many people who watched TLR groing up.. Then again Im guessing not many of those are going to be buying LEGO for themselves.. maybe for their grandkids..

    In any case the set themselves at least lok nice for those wanting to get a Wild West theme going on, and I really do like that train.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,804
    Oh, and Amazon US has the Fire Brigade back down to 119 for those interested in getting one for the first time of for those that want parts.
  • kim43235kim43235 Member Posts: 165
    edited January 2013
    [email protected] just offered 10% for sending me 10231 instead of 10213 after I complained about it. I'll take it!
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,804
    Nice
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