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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    edited January 2013
    I don't own any of the modulars, although that may soon change, I'm also not a reseller. So, either my opinion is worthless or seeing things through novice eyes and with no particular point to prove and as a potential buyer it may be interesting?

    When I first saw the fire brigade in pictures, catalogues etc it looked amazing. Not necessarily as evoking as 10182 but very special, it was a WOW moment. Looking at it now a few years later and having seen a few in the flesh I'm much less impressed. Within the context of more recent releases both in the modular range and, perhaps more importantly, outside of the modular range such as the Haunted House, it just looks really really blocky. Especially compared to the Palace Cinema it's really 'square'. Of course, its not a corner, its a more traditional style etc etc. But to me it definitely looks like its lost some of its lustre without doing anything - just because its competition has raised the bar. It hasn't aged well - imo.

    Standing in a Lego Shop with the option of buying Fire Brigade, Town Hall or the Palace Cinema? Well FB's got price on its side especially against the TH but if the RRP of Palace Cinema stays as advertised then its a simple decision and I'd walk away with the cinema (knowing that i might not be able to get FB 12 months from now might change that).

    What has happened to it? Did TLG create a second run/extent its life because of such good sales or because of the bad bags? Presumably they have done something, it was talked about being EOL, out of stock online etc about two years ago. If they have, and continuing stock in store, online and at other retailers suggest they must have, then that must have a potentially massive impact on future sales, far more than resellers stocking up. Its been out for three and half years and no signs of it going. Potential buyers have had longer to pick one up, theres far more supply etc.

    Do resellers have millions of them stashed away? I'm not the person to answer that but reading comments here over the last twelve months makes me believe its got to be one of, if not the most, stashed away 'big' set. Its at a price where people can afford to buy multiples and in some cases many many multiples. Its probably the first modular thats been around where the massive money to be made from CC has been understood, its been threatened to go EOL a number of times, its been discounted a fair amount.

    I can't see people loosing money, or coming close to that, its a good set with a good value RRP, but for all the above I don't see it doing particularly well after EOL - whenever that is. And given how long some people must have been holding on to these, with their money tied up, its not going to be a particularly good investment.

    Of course, all the above could be rubbish
    andhemathew
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    tensor said:

    I've been thinking recently about the Fire Brigade #10197 and I've been trying to figure it out, mostly with the below questions.

    1) Is this a good resell set? I can't help but think it's stellar. It's a beautiful building (the brickwork alone is gorgeous), full of fun, very detailed interior, very good ppp, includes a vehicle, receives high (near-perfect) marks in most reviews and even had a hidden bat. What's not to love about this set?

    2) Why has this been $119 at Amazon for as long as it has (a few weeks now)? Maybe people are tired of it, or do not see the value. Maybe there are a billion of these things in warehouses.

    3) When will it EOL? I've been hearing it nearing, if not simply being, EOL for at least 6 months, yet here we are with brand new sets well below RRP at amazon, and apparently fully in stock most other places as well.

    I'm not quite sure why this was moved into this thread. Honestly, as neat as this thread has become, it's not very useful when anything to do with any resale is plopped into a thread with 10000 comments. I've seen this happen a few times with other posters regarding other specific sets.

    Perhaps we need a new forum section on "retired/retiring sets" and allow specific discussions of specific sets/themes in there instead of merging everything into what has become a single, very-formidable-to-read thread for anyone new.


    FollowsClosely
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,339
    @tensor- I think it was moved where it need to be.. if you take the time to read through a few pages, you'll find posts upon posts of information on 10197 with people asking the exact same questions as you, and receiving lots of very helpful answers.

    Now I realize sorting through 200+ pages is inconceivable, however there is a search bar in the upper right hand corner of your screen. Merely type "10197" into that, and you'll see all the posts that mention your keyword.

    With a quick search of my own, I've already found answers to most of your questions! :-)
    UKtsumitiminchicago
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    True, and that's useful, but I don't think it's ideal to have one single thread have everything. That defeats the whole purpose of multiple forums no?

    The mere fact that this single thread has more comments than just about every other forum section combined makes it seem ripe for splitting up.
    FollowsCloselydougts
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,339
    @tensor- I believe that it negates unnecessary repetition.

    I think you'd find that if you split it all up, the forums would be much, much messier and repetitive.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    samiam391 said:

    @tensor- I believe that it negates unnecessary repetition.

    I think you'd find that if you split it all up, the forums would be much, much messier and repetitive.

    I get what you're saying, and you make good points. However, looking back in this thread I think you'll find a phenomenal amount of repetition.
  • UKtsumiUKtsumi Member Posts: 626
    ^ only because people don't bother to read before they post, or maybe they are new, but generally either way they get a decent reply.
    timinchicago
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,339
    UKtsumi said:

    ^ only because people don't bother to read before they post, or maybe they are new, but generally either way they get a decent reply.

    Exactly.

    And, @tensor, I never said that this thread doesn't have its repetition, because my goodness it does. First to admit that it doesn't, is a goof!

    No, what I'm merely saying that if it was split up, I believe that there would be even more clutter in the forums, and possibly even more repetition than what you already find here ;-)

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    Is the Death Star leaving us soon :P
    madforLEGO
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,339
    Pitfall69 said:

    Is the Death Star leaving us soon :P

    Like clockwork..

    legoprods
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,902
    ^HeeHee.

    Question on b&m retail availability of 1st Super Heroes wave.

    So now that Wally, Target, and other retail establishments have restocked post Xmas, I don't see Superman vs. Lex, Two-Face, Batwing, and other solid SH sets. It's Chima, Chima, Chima, Star Wars, Town, Space Bugs, and this/that with SH and other series.

    Opinions that these be available only at B&M Lego stores; Amazon; TRU; and [email protected] only until supplies run out?
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002

    But to me it definitely looks like its lost some of its lustre without doing anything - just because its competition has raised the bar. It hasn't aged well - imo.

    I would suggest the opposite of this, as I think Fire Brigade actually blows Pet Shop and Town Hall out of the water, whereas Green Grocer looks pretty basic by today's standards and Café Corner is an eyesore (although, to be fair, I felt it was an eyesore way back when - I just felt compelled to get it because it was a corner). I do like the exterior of Palace Cinema better than Fire Brigade, but I think FB remains the best modular all-around, and it will take something really special to knock it off that pedestal.

    As to splitting this thread, I think the general sentiment is that many forum members find the reselling aspect of LEGO to be distasteful and would prefer it not overtake the forum, so this has become a kind of 'all-purpose' thread for most things related to reselling.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    ^As far as reading through all these pages. I understand it is quite a task, but I look at it this way. If you are a serious collector or collector/reseller, you would not have to read through so much because you would be visiting the forums frequently. I understand people have jobs and family. So do I. In fact I own 2 businesses, have a family and work out 2 hours a day. My wife is due in the next few weeks and I can see it now. My wife is in labor lying in the bed and I probably will say "That's great honey, keep pushing...OMG!!! Death Star is EOLing!!! Can you wait a second, I just need to buy a few from Amazon."
    FollowsCloselyTheLoneTensor
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,902
    Just shipped some parts to someone in New Hope, MN. Boy, I wish that was the name of my town!
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    Well, I live an hour away from Hell, Michigan.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    edited January 2013
    tensor said:

    I'm not quite sure why this was moved into this thread. Honestly, as neat as this thread has become, it's not very useful when anything to do with any resale is plopped into a thread with 10000 comments. I've seen this happen a few times with other posters regarding other specific sets.

    Perhaps we need a new forum section on "retired/retiring sets" and allow specific discussions of specific sets/themes in there instead of merging everything into what has become a single, very-formidable-to-read thread for anyone new.

    I merged your post into this thread, and I did it because your questions about whether or not 10197 is a good set to resell and when it will EOL match this discussion topic exactly. The staff and I don't feel a separate topic is needed for each set, because rather than one discussion that is unwieldy the result will be an entire forum that is unwieldy.

    The answers to your question can easily be found in this thread. Even though this discussion is over 200 pages long, the Fire Brigade and Death Star have been the most discussed topic in this thread, and I would guess that there's nearly 50 pages cumulatively devoted to them. But if that's too much information for you to parse, try using the search box from the right-hand navigation for a more directed search. Here is an example query: http://www.bricksetforum.com/search?Search=Fire+Brigade+EOL

    Does this translate into a little more work for you to have your questions answered? Yes. But if it's too much work, you're probably going to find that it's just the tip of the iceberg of the work required to resell LEGO.
    Pitfall69jasonord69ay2joshLegoFanTexasBumblepantsCCCtiminchicago
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,994
    Pitfall69 said:

    My wife is in labor lying in the bed and I probably will say "That's great honey, keep pushing...OMG!!! Death Star is EOLing!!! Can you wait a second, I just need to buy a few from Amazon."

    It will be OK if you add the excuse "They are for the new baby, after all".
  • legoprodslegoprods SpainMember Posts: 445
    And having one single thread is a nice way to keep yourself updated.

    I would get lost if we had 10+ different threads at once!
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    ^What child wouldn't want a space station that can destroy planets?
    thecleator
  • legoprodslegoprods SpainMember Posts: 445
    Geez @CCC

    I just saw my profile... what do you have against me? Why those random five spam/abuses?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    ^Please, this is not the place.
    legoprods
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    rocao said:

    Does this translate into a little more work for you to have your questions answered? Yes. But if it's too much work, you're probably going to find that it's just the tip of the iceberg of the work required to resell LEGO.

    Best post ever!!! :)
    Pitfall69FollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410

    rocao said:

    Does this translate into a little more work for you to have your questions answered? Yes. But if it's too much work, you're probably going to find that it's just the tip of the iceberg of the work required to resell LEGO.

    Best post ever!!! :)
    How many times can I "like" before I'm reported for abuse? Fantastic post @rocao

    LegoFanTexas
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited January 2013

    rocao said:

    Does this translate into a little more work for you to have your questions answered? Yes. But if it's too much work, you're probably going to find that it's just the tip of the iceberg of the work required to resell LEGO.

    Best post ever!!! :)
    Here's the funny thing though. As much as Rocao has a good point, you and others just love flogging the same discussion over and over. There are dozens of sets that retire every year, yet you and others discuss only a handful. If you're such an expert on reselling then why don't you want to open up and lead the discussion into new directions?
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098

    Within the context of more recent releases both in the modular range and, perhaps more importantly, outside of the modular range such as the Haunted House, it just looks really really blocky. Especially compared to the Palace Cinema it's really 'square'.

    This is actually one of my main complaints about the modular line. They have really confined themselves to blocky style buildings. There is so much more possibility if they could just break away from the interconnected nature of the modular system. The Haunted House is a good example. When you walk down a city street there are alleys, parks and other open spaces. Imagine how much more interesting the Town Hall could of been if they would of incorporated a small garden around it.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    ^Please, by all means, what Lego sets would you like to discuss in further detail? Has Construct-a-Zurg officially retired yet? If so, how do you think it will perform?

    Also, please enlighten us on how to build a better Modular. We are obviously not mavens and we are humbled by your expertise.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    #6864-1 is one example of a recently retired set. How about the LotR line? Brickset lists several of these sets as being recently EOL'd (Helm's Deep and Weathertop for example). Yet other sets are still listed as being available (Moria). To be honest there's not a lot of recent in-depth discussion for a thread that is over 200 pages long.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    ^We can't discuss every set in every theme. We usually just pick out the winners from each theme. Just recently we discussed Luke's Landspeeder and up to that point I don't remember it ever being discussed.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    edited January 2013
    Not everyone loves or collects every theme. A lot of people don't even resell. Ninjago is one theme that I don't collect or really even resell, but it is discussed and I go with the flow. Minecraft is another example.

    If you don't like what is currently being discussed, then make a suggestion. If you want to know about a set or theme, use the search option as rocao pointed out.

    Maybe nobody is discussing other sets because they don't want to. That is just my observation.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,902
    6864 isn't retired yet, fyi. Just out of stock. This goes back to my earlier question that was sandwiched between some back-and-forth jabbing.

    There is way too much arguing over arguing on this thread.
    madforLEGO
  • LURKERnumber2149LURKERnumber2149 Member Posts: 15
    edited January 2013
    @mathew helms deep and weathertop are not eol they are just out of stock...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    6864 has not retired, it is simply backordered... I don't expect that to retire until Christmas.

    Helm's Deep and Weathertop are both also backordered, those won't go until Summer or Winter 2013.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    ^Yes, this was news to me as well. I just assumed everyone is restocking after the Christmas purge.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    prevere said:

    6864 isn't retired yet, fyi. Just out of stock. This goes back to my earlier question that was sandwiched between some back-and-forth jabbing.

    There is way too much arguing over arguing on this thread.

    That's why I try not to comment to further the argument, but sometimes one can't help themselves.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    As far as the Super Heroes theme, I haven't been inside a store for some time, so I don't know what they have. Maybe, your question wasn't answered because most people don't know the answer.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    @prevere I've been to several Big Box stores since they've done their clearance-resets and all of them still have at least the Quinjet and the Batcave, not sure about the smaller sets. As for TRU's Funhouse I've only been to two stores and not seen it at either. Interesting to me is that there is no shelf slot at Target for the Vampyre Castle. Or Zombies. Duh. I wonder if Zombies got prematurely nixed because the Bride is absolutely horrifying. I can in all seriousness imagine children bursting into tears at the sight of her.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    ^My 3.5 year old daughter loves the Vampyre Castle and Haunted House. The Bride doesn't scare her at all.

    My daughter is an anomaly though
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,509
    ^^ I seem to recall several years ago the Target exclusive SW Republic Tank disappearing from [email protected] and Target after Christmas than reappearing the next August in both places. Purely speculation but the possibility exists Zombies could follow that model. I certainly wouldn't bet on it though.
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181

    Well ive got one of those £5 vouchers.... So 2 of them will be £52.50, so would bring my average price up to £42.50...... I think Ill go for it :D

    Can you use 1 voucher per transaction so £50? Worth a go.

    Thanks for the suggestion, I will indeed employ this tactic!

    Again moving OT, of my lego stock I probably have around 20 % of it for sale at anyone time, once it ticks certain boxes.....

    Of the themes I have at the moment Harry Potter seems to be outperforming everything, have other people found this theme has done very well? The only box I seem to not be shifting (and its probably my price) is Diagon alley, but im not willing to let this one go cheaply..
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,349
    ^what are you asking for DA ? Sold all but 2 of mine pre-Xmas for £190-£200
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    edited January 2013
    Not really asking as such, I suppose if I put it like this, I have 3 themes running at the moment, and even though HP has more "big", and more expensive boxes, I have virtually none left, POTC has been quite slow and my older Star Wars stuff has sold as steady as ever, but im almost totally out of HP... And it was a theme I "wasn't sure of" when I originally took the plunge on it.... RE Diagon specifically , I get the impression, quite few people have the set and wondered what others impressions were... Im looking for more like 250 for my first round sale of Diagons which seems above the current level...
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,349
    edited January 2013
    ^ seems a bit steep but is probably wrong time of year to ask for top money on EOL sets, can easily see DA doing £250+ at Xmas 2013.
    Plus it's all relative to cost price, if I'd paid rrp then £190 isn't great resale price but the most I paid was £89 (tesco 3for2), cheapest £77.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,994
    mathew said:

    Brickset lists several of these sets as being recently EOL'd (Helm's Deep and Weathertop for example). Yet other sets are still listed as being available (Moria).

    I had to have a double take there too. Strangely out of Moria, Helm's Deep and Weathertop, it is Moria that is not in the recent (UK) catalogue. The other two are.
  • mressinmressin Lego City... erm LondonMember Posts: 843
    Links to reselling, but slightly off-topic (apologies in advance): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21145592

    Let's hope that TLG never has to confess to doping at Oprah's. ;)
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    ^That man is scarily out of touch - it wasn't just rumours, its been over three months since the report was published.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Cant imagine the import fees were cheap if you got 2 if they are from US
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,349
    ^they aren't but the set still comes in cheaper than UK rrp
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    roxio said:

    ^they aren't but the set still comes in cheaper than UK rrp

    Thats ok then:)

  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367

    ^^ I seem to recall several years ago the Target exclusive SW Republic Tank disappearing from [email protected] and Target after Christmas than reappearing the next August in both places. Purely speculation but the possibility exists Zombies could follow that model. I certainly wouldn't bet on it though.

    The Zombies already seems to be pushing an average of $90 on ebay over the last few weeks. Makes me really wish I had loaded up on them when they were on sale for $30.
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 868
    One of the things I love about this thread is that it helps me decide which sets to snatch up because they are one-of-a-kind and ones I'll likely regret not gettting a few years down the line. LEGO does repeat itself, but not on everything across the board, and sometimes you just get one shot.

    To that end, there was a bit of discussion upstream about the Joust. Was looking at it over the weekend and I'm starting to admire it a little more each time I look at it. There's nothing quite like it, and a lot of pieces and detail for the price to boot. Now that I know we're having a girl, I'm re-evaluating my LEGO investments with less focus on Star Wars and gravitating more to Castle, which is more gender-equal (plenty of female as well as male minifigs). I already have MMV and MVR, as well as a bunch of classic 80s stuff (Lion and Black Falcon and Forestmen stuff). I've managed to hold out so far in building the MMV and MVR sets, and I'm thinking I might pick up Joust as well and hold onto it.

    Someone suggested Joust would likely be around for the remainder of the year -- just wanted to confirm that. I'd like to wait for a good sale -- ideally a good discount at Amazon to below $100 or alternatively, a good LEGO store sale opportunity (Double VIP? May the 4th?), but I want to make sure I will have the time to do that. If not, I may have to make sure I grab it before it is too late. I'd also appreciate any thoughts whether it is reasonable to expect it to go below $100 based on recent trends - I do see it is at $110 at Walmart right now....
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