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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    ^odd thing, I added 2 to my cart, I'm not going to buy them, I just want to know if it had any effect.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,258

    *champaign popping galore*

    Did someone have premature cork popping?
    I WAS EXCITED!!!!! I tried to think about Death Star EOLing, but dang it.
    Bumblepants
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited January 2013
    Just grabbed one; I need to build it. I have one of the older Imperial Landing Craft sets, but this set is just so much cooler.
  • masterX244masterX244 GermanyMember Posts: 531
    edited January 2013
    wondering when the last 2 poofs, too.
    but not from me. not enough money inflow
    @Farmer_John you ninja'd me
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    ONE left
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    Gone!
  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237
    Looks like we're done.

    Who wants to buy an MISB IS? A bargain at $500.

    Sorry! Mods, you can move this thread to Marketplace.
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    LOL
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Can I return the two I just bought and keep the suspense alive for another minute?
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,457
    *Cue Fireworks
    *Champagne cork flying through air
    *Party hats
    *Confetti falling from the sky


    On a side note, it will be interesting to see what the IS being out of stock everywhere does to the eBay market in the next few days.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I find it very funny that the 7166 IS is ONLY $230 with shipping on Amazon.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454

    *champaign popping galore*



    Did someone have premature cork popping?
    You can use Cialabrick for that.

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    al veta zane
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    That was fun. A moment of harmony among resellers. See you all here agian one day when FB and DS finally fade away.
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    edited January 2013
    In germany the IS is EOL already at least 6 weeks and on europe amazon I tink 4 weeks. Resellers still keep the price at ~300 (last week was under 300) at the moment. means in europe it is not rising that fast as expected
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    Just remember...you have to be patient. Don't go selling the IS for $400 in a few months ;)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    bp10030 said:

    In germany the IS is EOL already at least 6 weeks and on europe amazon I tink 4 weeks. Resellers still keep the price at ~300 (last week was under 300) at the moment. means in europe it is not rising that fast as expected

    Of course not, because it was still in the US in stock, that holds the price down.

    I think we'll see $400 by Christmas.
  • JamesJTJamesJT Member Posts: 440
    prevere said:

    al veta zane

    I'm laughing but I'm not sure if I got the right joke, you mean "Auf Wiedersehen"?

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Bitte.
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,157
    JamesJT: Donkey-shite! (if you did mean Auf wiedersehen)
  • ReliantReliant Member Posts: 68
    Thanks for the tip. Maybe it will sellout tonight. My guess 9pm
  • ReliantReliant Member Posts: 68
    Just checked the other thread the are gone :)
  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,120
    I bought 4 of them around 2pm and they had 40 left.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    edited January 2013
    I think the first stop for IS will be $440....around Xmas. This is why it did not meet my criteria at RRP....at $195 it was very much in the sweet spot.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^But surely there's an opportunity cost there. You passed on something else to get the ISs. I bought some today, so that means I'll pass on the next wave of clearance items.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259

    bp10030 said:

    In germany the IS is EOL already at least 6 weeks and on europe amazon I tink 4 weeks. Resellers still keep the price at ~300 (last week was under 300) at the moment. means in europe it is not rising that fast as expected

    Of course not, because it was still in the US in stock, that holds the price down.

    I think we'll see $400 by Christmas.
    Only $50 less then Australian RRP :/
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    prevere said:

    ^But surely there's an opportunity cost there. You passed on something else to get the ISs. I bought some today, so that means I'll pass on the next wave of clearance items.

    There are not many sets that were going to do double my cost within 1 year. I have my fill of 10219, 10217, 4842, 8043 and 10212. Did not have to pass on any sets, storage and $$$ are not an obstacle. There may have been some Ninjago that might do better than 2x but to be honest I am clueless on that theme and will steer clear.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    ^I think storage is a huge obstacle. I'm already having to shuffle things around to house all my Legos. I don't know how it is overseas, but from what I have heard, houses and apartments seem to be much smaller than ones in the US.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited January 2013
    @Pitfall69 I think England on average would have smaller houses from what I have seen, Australia would be on the large size, not sure how we compare with the US.

    I have a 7x7 meter garage that is just for storage and my house is on a 1200sq meter block. So space isnt a huge issue, although I only have a few sets set aside for resale, all my personal sets I haven't built yet take up a bit if space though.
  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,120
    I have no problem with the metric system.....but both sides of the pond needs to get on the same page....either one I dont care....just pick one.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    A little help for Thanos75:
    Translated: Garage is approx 23'x23' and his house sits on a lot that is approx 3,937 sq feet.
  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,120
    4,000 sq feet is a pretty good size house......even for the USA....
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    Basta said:

    @Pitfall69 I think England on average would have smaller houses from what I have seen, Australia would be on the large size, not sure how we compare with the US.

    Depends on where in the US. In New York, people live in apartments or small houses, the big ones cost a ton.

    In Texas, houses cost much less, about 1/3 of what they cost in Australia, at least the places that are similar in style and area.
  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,120
    I would love to transfer to Texas....I work for Valero but am stuck in New Orleans.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    Thanos75 said:

    I would love to transfer to Texas....I work for Valero but am stuck in New Orleans.

    @Thanos75 but you got all the good deals from Walmarts in New Orleans (per the Walmart sale thread). If you move to Texas, you have to compete with LFT ;)

    To change topic a bit, any prediction on prices of QAR by xmas 2013 ? It seems to be selling for around $190 on eBay at the moment
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Thanos75 said:

    I would love to transfer to Texas....I work for Valero but am stuck in New Orleans.

    I second that.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited January 2013
    Where I live (Southern California), you can choose between a $500k two-bedroom cracker box condo in Newport Beach, or you can drive 45 minutes inland (with no traffic) and get a very large house in Corona. Of course, then you have to live in Corona where it's 25+ degrees hotter in the summer and the people might be, um, different. All preference, I suppose. You'd have a ton of room to store Lego in Corona if you can put up with living there!
  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,120
    I did get lucky with WM this season. I think i'm the only buyer on the East bank...someone did get to the West bank before me...lol...I love my job but I love how much more you can get for the dollar in Texas. Land is expensive in New Orleans.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    ^Lol. I didn't mean for everyone to compare homes and apartment sizes. I guess that is what us men do :) I was just saying that storing large amounts of Lego in our living quarters is a challenge no matter what size place you live in.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited January 2013
    We'll be moving to Texas soon and my wife has made it clear that we have to purchase an extra room for all my boxes...preferably one that nobody will ever see. Kind of like the final scene in the first Indiana Jones movie...
    FollowsClosely
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    edited January 2013
    ^Top. Men.

    (though, we really need a Porkins to come in here and say that)
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    edited January 2013
    To be honest from the European perspective IS doesn't seem such an outstanding investment. Over here (Hungary) its regular price was about 350 USD and the cheapest you could get it was about 300 USD. I don't see that doubling soon enough. Some of the smaller / cheaper sets (like Maersk Train, DA, Shuttle, WVB, QAR, maybe MMV) which have more room to rise in value seem to be safer / better bets for me.
  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237
    Like all investments, buying price is key. The good thing about the IS is that buying at the £170 level means I can be pretty optimistic that I'll get to double my money.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,712
    edited January 2013
    After seeing how many people just in the discussion are buying a ton of these at RRP, I'm glad I did not.
    I can also rest easy knowing I have a few already and bought them all at a sale price and not RRP.
    Are they going to go up? Sure, but for RRP, it is not worth it to me to buy another of a set that will probably need to sit around for at least 1 year to really do well on it.
    Especially when I'm guessing some people will be more than happy to make 50 dollars per set on eBay and not realize that are really only making about half , or less, that after the fees are taken out.
    Combine this with all the others buying this set at retail that will need to hold on to this set to make a decent profit on it and I am hazarding a guess and say this is going to take a while to really climb.

    Now if you have the time and storage was it worth it? I'm guessing yes, but I just could not pull the trigger on another

    DISCLAIMER: I could just as easily be wrong and these skyrocket on eBay, these are my own opinions and not a fact.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,404
    ^ Yea, that is a key question, how much storage do you have and how long can you wait for a return.

    Also, it will take longer than 1 day to see a trend in eBay prices. Lets all see where this is come Feb 12th, 30 days from now, to see if this has risen much.
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    ^Tracking my fees for PP/ebay in a spreadsheet for the last few months has really made me understand how much fees eat up your profits. I get how much of an uphill climb it is for sets at RRP.

    My IS showed up this morning. I went with Saturday delivery, since I had heard the faster shipping methods often result in better packaging. It arrived less than perfect, but nothing worse that a few bumps along one edge. 99% of the box looks flawless.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,712
    ^ Yeah, I sprang on a Excavator at TRU since it was at retail again and I had some TRU rewards to spend, the box looks like someone kicked the corner of it, but I guess you roll the dice with large boxes sets nowadays
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I am expecting my IS set to arrive in "less than perfect condition." They always do from Amazon, which uses cardboard boxes slightly thicker than 2-ply toilet paper. BUT...I purchased the set in order to build it with the kids, so the box condition isn't as important to me.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    I think the IS will sell well later this year. I consider it an iconic SW set. I did buy 2 for RRP yesterday, but got all the others at a good discount. I'm pleased with my purchases. I've sold over 1K of items on eBay. Yes, the fees just go up and up, and often means selling for 2x or 3x over what I paid to make it worth it. But, on a big set like the IS I will be OK with clearing $100 ea on them. I think that will be possible.
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    200 pages!!
    pmercik
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