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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • mressinmressin Member Posts: 843
    thornie said:

    TLG is releasing a new Castle line in 2013.

    Is that a certainty? Any details?
  • thorniethornie Member Posts: 245
    mressin said:

    thornie said:

    TLG is releasing a new Castle line in 2013.

    Is that a certainty? Any details?
    It's an absolute certainty. The photos leaked a few weeks ago, but they had the "confidential" watermark, so they were all taken down. Here are the set names...

    70400 Forest Ambush
    70401 Gold Getaway
    70402 Gatehouse Raid
    70403 Dragon Mountain
    70404 King’s Castle

  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    legoprods said:

    So then, in LFT and Grogall we trust?

    May I part out the sets I have stored now?

    Remember that part about all of this being opinions?
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    legoprods said:


    May I part out the sets I have stored now?

    YES!

    Or send them my way, I'll be happy to handle it. :-)
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Dragon Mountain sounds interesting. I'm thinking it has a dragon?
  • thorniethornie Member Posts: 245
    edited January 2013
    ^ Yeah the new Castle theme will have Fantasy elements. If I remember correctly, it had a large black and red winged dragon.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    prevere said:

    legoprods said:

    So then, in LFT and Grogall we trust?

    May I part out the sets I have stored now?

    Remember that part about all of this being opinions?
    ^ This is true... Grogall has a better track record than I do, so I'll leave "we trust" to him. :)

    Some of what I've posted turned out to be true, and some did not. I've learned better what sources to listen to and which are full of hot air, but sometimes the info is still wrong.

    I just try to pass along what I believe to be true to help everyone out. This forum has taught me so much and provided so much, I'm very grateful for it being here.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    prevere said:

    legoprods said:

    So then, in LFT and Grogall we trust?

    May I part out the sets I have stored now?

    Remember that part about all of this being opinions?
    I don't know if this would be considered opinions because each person has a supposedly reliable source.

    I didn't grab many FB and GE anyway because my gut feeling told me they were going to be around longer than expected. Regardless, they will still do well in the future and that is my opinion and with that said...

    *This forum member and supporting information is furnished by me and is accepted/used by the recipient with the understanding that I make no warranties, expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of this information, of its constituent parts, or of any supporting data.

    I shall be under no liability whatsoever resulting from any use of this information.

    This information should not be relied upon as the sole basis for buying and reselling Lego.

    Whew!!!

  • asmodaiasmodai Member Posts: 16
    ^ I actually mentally read that in accelerated speech
    FollowsCloselylegoprodsSharifa
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I have to cover myself just in case :)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,787
    FollowsClosely said:

    Grogall said:

    For those of you who are speculating about 10197 FB or 10211 GE, I have news that TLG has decided to keep these sets in production throughout 2013, So this year we will have 5 Modular Buildings available till at least the end of the year!

    Sounds like many more years in the very back of my storage room.
    That's OK..
    I do not mind LEGO shooting themselves in the foot on FB and eventually having to clearance these down to 100-125 IMO.

    Walmart and Amazon are already trying to move FB at 119. I just do not see the sense in this from LEGO's standpoint.
  • The_MackThe_Mack Member Posts: 239
    edited January 2013
    ^ LEGO isn't doing anything except making money. They sell to Retail at a certain price point. The retailer decides what to sell it at to move the volume. It's why the LEGO website never really offers deep discounts, they have agreements not to undermine retailers (it's also why the VIP program exist). Also why they can afford to open retail locations. Their profit is increased because they are not selling to a 3rd party retailer. When you make the soap and sell the soap at full retail, your profit margins become very high. Except in this case it's LEGO.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    edited January 2013
    madforLEGO said:

    That's OK..
    I do not mind LEGO shooting themselves in the foot on FB and eventually having to clearance these down to 100-125 IMO.

    Walmart and Amazon are already trying to move FB at 119. I just do not see the sense in this from LEGO's standpoint.

    Yep I don't get it either. I would rather see another new modular on the shelf or website rather than a languishing FB. Why can't they release two new sets in a year if they insist on trying to sell me 5 at once? I also won't be purchasing the new cinema until 2017 - 2018 because I know I have that long to wait for a good sale. Kudos to the marketing department.....lol.

  • LegobrandonCPLegobrandonCP Member Posts: 1,917
    It's been nearly a year after I purchased the FB because of the predictions on this thread.
  • JP3804JP3804 Member Posts: 332
    @ Pitfall69 I get it. I just don't like it.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^I see. What don't you like?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    LegobrandonCP said:

    It's been nearly a year after I purchased the FB because of the predictions on this thread.

    Yes indeed, but in 2000 did you take all your money out of the bank and fill all your bath tubs up with water? The Mayans were wrong as well. This thread is all about predicting and sometimes we are wrong.

  • JP3804JP3804 Member Posts: 332
    ^ I am a contractor. I need a three page contract just to change a lightbulb or risk not being payed or sued.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Oh. Haha. Yeah, we own 2 businesses and I feel your pain
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    JP3804 said:

    ^ I am a contractor. I need a three page contract just to change a lightbulb or risk not being payed or sued.

    I miss the world where a handshake was enough to do business with...
    FollowsCloselylegoprods
  • JP3804JP3804 Member Posts: 332
    ^ I guess I'm showing my age. The days of a handshake are gone.
    The few deals I've made on here are closer to the old days than anything.
    Let's keep it that way.
    Great group. :-)
    FollowsClosely
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited January 2013
    Pitfall69 said:


    *This forum member and supporting information is furnished by me and is accepted/used by the recipient with the understanding that I make no warranties, expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of this information, of its constituent parts, or of any supporting data.

    I shall be under no liability whatsoever resulting from any use of this information.

    This information should not be relied upon as the sole basis for buying and reselling Lego.

    he he I need to add a disclaimer to all of my posts too. Maybe something along the lines of what's on the drug industry commercials.

    * Reading this post may cause dizziness, blurry vision, redness of eyes, and possible gastrointestinal pain. Also, possible reactions are brain freeze (a sharp pain just behind the eyes), ringing of ears, and/or terrible rashes. If you have urges to buy LEGOS in mass quantities lasting more than 4 hours consult a physician. You may be losing blood to your brain.

    Sort of messed up the quoting from a previous post. Sorry.
  • JP3804JP3804 Member Posts: 332
    edited January 2013
    @Pitfall69. I didn't mean to come off as an a**. I guess it just hit a nerve. Bad day. :-)
  • DeadareusDeadareus Member Posts: 264
    Doesn't appear that #9446 is coming back in stock at [email protected]

    Can we assume that this set is EOL based on it's post christmas sale price? Or has it been confirmed elsewhere and I just missed it. Did a search in here but found nothing concrete.

    On a related note... catching up on all this Ninjago stuff has been timely and costly over the past 2 months. I'll have it all for the little guy just in time for him to start into the next theme. But who am I kidding... I love it.
  • charlatan13charlatan13 Member Posts: 118
    Actually took the time to finally register (long-time lurker) to comment on Diagon Alley. I couldn't bring myself to buy another one (trying to get the rest of LoTR before starting the Hobbit sets) but I found it to be a wonderful build. With that being said, I think the fact that Universal Orlando is rumored to be building an expansion to their current Harry Potter offerings will only serve to increase the value of the set (the rumor being that Gringott's bank will be the focus with a possibility of a Hogwarts Express ride connecting the two parks - Islands of Adventure (park with existing HP) and new area in Universal Studios (the second park)). Anyway, my son played with Diagon Alley and his other HP sets extensively after we visited and I would imagine a price point of $300 for a boxed set to be reasonable (especially when you consider how expensive all of the HP merchandise is in the park). I know the whole inflation aspect but I also think that set will be coveted for years to come.

    Of course, I just enjoy Lego and reading about it so I could totally be wrong, but I just feel as if the books will continue to be popular for many, many years to come.
    momof2boys99
  • RennyRenny Member Posts: 1,145
    ^Welcome :) Friendly tip, you may want to put a disclaimer at the end of every one of your posts. Anything you say may be used against you in a court of law or heated brick debate ;)
    FollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^Lol. Baptism by fire.
  • charlatan13charlatan13 Member Posts: 118
    Ha! I just figured the 'Prediction' part of the title meant just that. I've got my single Minecraft set that my son gets at Easter so no worries there. I can't keep up with the three lego lines I already want let alone buying ones to sell.

    Absolutely love the site. Already got in trouble with the wife by excitedly telling her that the new Mindstorms robot is coming out this August and is only $350. Someone else had mentioned that he referenced the fact that others on here spend thousands of dollars and that he was doing well with staying below that threshold. That didn't work for me either but it probably didn't help to have a half-finished Death Star along with nine other boxed sets in the background when I made my comment. Gotta love it.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Think I saw something on Mac Rumors about an iPhone app to control a Mindstorms robot.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I've mentioned before that I haven't seen 1 Harry Potter movie, but with all those movies one would think that there would have been many more scenes to recreate in Lego. There really wasn't that many sets. Take away the rehashes, how many unique sets did Lego produce?
  • VaderXVaderX Member Posts: 220
    I just laugh at all of the people who are crying about Lego keeping the modulars around for a longer time frame. They do this because of all the people still buying them up and stuffing them in their closets thinking the will be worth thousands in a year or two. I recently purchased FB and waited a very long time to make a purchase decision. If they had a shorter shelf life I simply would not own one.

    Or they may be keeping longer product time frames because this is what people complained about in the last year or two with the sets that had limited releases and ridiculous after market prices. Lego does not care about aftermarket price speculations. As long as sets continue to sell they will produce them by the thousands. It's just that simple.

    I not saying anything bad about aftermarket speculation. I myself have bought sets purely for the intent to sell down the road, but sets like this for me are few and far between. I use this technique as a way of making a hobby less expensive. I also believe this bubble will soon burst and it will no longer be an avenue for diluting my hobby costs. I could also be wrong :). If it does burst I will not have to buy and sell anymore so its a win, win for me either way.

    Thoughts?
    lulwut
  • DeadareusDeadareus Member Posts: 264
    ^ I agree.

    Not sure if the bubble will burst or not but in the short time that I have been involved in the hobby it seems as though TLG has changed their tactics on how to discontinue sets.

    The sales I heard of from years past simply didn't materialize for me this year.

    Also, the addition of the 'retiring' soon tag is a pretty huge indicator that Lego wants those who are looking for any particular set to be aware of when sets will no longer be available.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    Little Timmy and his finally full piggy bank staring at the hole where Emerald Night used be is probably what got TLG's attention. That or UCS MF.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^I maybe wrong, but I think the "complaining" is more about storage space than anything. The fact that boxes of FB will not see the light for at least 16-24 months sucks for people with limited storage space. Fire Brigade IMO will still be valuable in the future. The question is how valuable? It was mentioned that the part-out value right now is $250. Maybe that might be a viable option for some who want to free up some storage storage space.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    For me it takes the excitement away from purchasing the modulars. I love to collect, and half the fun of collecting is knowing you have something that had fairly limited availability. TLG only produces a handful of spectacular sets every year and it is a shame some of these spectacular sets will no longer be rare. I could care less about the reselling aspect, there will always be other sets and other markets entirely to make good $$$ on. Since we know modulars will be on shelves for 5-6 years it would be nice if they allowed us to pre-order limited edition versions - change up the box art and throw in some exclusive figs.....give me some motivation to buy now rather than 5 years down the track.
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Brickarmor said:

    Little Timmy and his finally full piggy bank staring at the hole where Emerald Night used be is probably what got TLG's attention. That or UCS MF.

    "Little Timmy" will still complain that he didn't have enough time to purchase Fire Brigade or some other set. One day "Little Timmy" will grow up and rather spend his money elsewhere. His car, his girl...college, beer. Then one day 10 years later he'll get back into Lego and maybe there will still be a few of us left that still have a Fire Brigade stuffed somewhere and he will be happy to fork over 2x rrp for it and maybe praise the reseller for having it.

  • lulwutlulwut Member Posts: 417
    edited January 2013
    I'm sure TLG has learned what happens when you market to collectors: they destroy everything they touch.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited January 2013
    I also like the collectible aspect of the Modulars and the Winter Village sets. We will see what happens with future releases. It can go 2 ways. If it is true that Lego is only selling the Modulars to resellers, what happens when the resellers stop buying? They may be left with too much stock and will have to cut back and maybe change their business model again to a limited run.
  • VaderXVaderX Member Posts: 220
    ^LOL "little timmy" reminds me of last January, and Walmarts 50% sales. Damn little Timmy for beating me to Walmart this year :)

    I do fill a small hole where my third sealed copy of EN was, but the money netted from #3 payed for its #2 brother on the shelf. How many EN passenger cars do I really need around the Christmas Tree once a year.

    (50!) haha ;)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^I would love to see those all lined up on the track
  • VaderXVaderX Member Posts: 220
    Lol, I'm teasing and dreaming at the same time. I only have two now
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^You should have used a disclaimer; )
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,787
    edited January 2013
    I think the 'little timmy' garbage needs to go.
    It was 'cute' and funny when it was used once.. now in its 296th incarnation it is getting old...Let it go already.
    legoprodsLostInTranslationPenkid11
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    How about "Vertically Challenged Sam"?
  • VaderXVaderX Member Posts: 220
    ***Disclaimer*** Internet forum publications made by the fictional character "Vader X" Avatar may or may not be truthful when dreaming about all the Lego possibilities running through his head, only to learn his non-fictional budget crushes him every time :). Better?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Lol. This disclaimer stuff may have "jumped the shark" just like Li...oops. I almost mentioned the thing that should not be. Maybe it is like Beetlejuice and you have to say it three times.
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,492
    Pitfall69 said:

    How about "Vertically Challenged Sam"?

    No... no that one just doesn't work for me.

    Pitfall69Penkid11
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    Really, if they extend the life of all the modulars, it will only make it all the easier for me to skip a lackluster set like Café Corner or Grand Emporium. I'm sure I'm not the 'typical' buyer, but there has to be a small subset of people like me who will be less likely to buy an 'iffy' model the longer they have to think about it.

    I suppose it's fortunate for TLG, then, that the Palace Cinema is such a great model... and it could definitely be a big boon if this longer shelf life forces all the modulars to be just as well-made moving forward.
  • legoprodslegoprods Member Posts: 445
    LegoFanTexas said:



    I just try to pass along what I believe to be true to help everyone out. This forum has taught me so much and provided so much, I'm very grateful for it being here.

    And I, and many others, thank you for that.

    Oh, and I think we should drop this *disclaimer* stuff now. The revolution is over, everyone on the village is back to their regular programming. :)

    AND WHEN WILL THE LIVE STAR RETssshh!
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    doriansdad said:

    For me it takes the excitement away from purchasing the modulars. I love to collect, and half the fun of collecting is knowing you have something that had fairly limited availability. TLG only produces a handful of spectacular sets every year and it is a shame some of these spectacular sets will no longer be rare. I could care less about the reselling aspect, there will always be other sets and other markets entirely to make good $$$ on. Since we know modulars will be on shelves for 5-6 years it would be nice if they allowed us to pre-order limited edition versions - change up the box art and throw in some exclusive figs.....give me some motivation to buy now rather than 5 years down the track.

    The obvious problem is less sold = less profit. Unless you increase the selling price and thus charge the buyers for the exclusivity.

    The development costs are the same whether they sell 100, 10000, or 1000000. The price they charge you for development obviously depends on how many people that is spread over.

    What extra would you pay for a different box (contents exactly the same) if it was an exclusive? $10, $100?
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