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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Renny said:

    I would like to see a new "red baron" #10024 plane to go with the new Sopwith. Either will do extremely well once EOL'd.

    With a Snoopy mini figure please ;)

    Amen!!! Gotta LOVE Snoopy, but he should have been released with the Sopwith Camel. Either way, I'll take him with the Red Baron plane!
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    Renny said:

    I would like to see a new "red baron" #10024 plane to go with the new Sopwith. Either will do extremely well once EOL'd.

    With a Snoopy mini figure please ;)

    Shouldn't Snoopy have been included with the Sopwith Camel?

    And, just because you might enjoy it...
    Renny
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    ^ Yes, he pilots the Sopwith :) Talking about the Red Baron made me wishful for a Snoopy figure release. Although I don't think there will ever be a Peanuts license theme :(
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    ^ Still available in US
    http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Hayabusa-21101

    mathew said:

    With long distance space travel it doesn't quite work that way.

    Just consider... December 1903, watching Orville and Wilber Wright flying the first airplane, had someone then said that within a person's lifetime man would walk on the moon... that person would have been laughed at. (perhaps commited!)

    Warp drive, or whatever ends up being faster than light drive, is hard and impossible, right up until it isn't.

    How long was it between the time that fission was even discovered, and the first atomic bomb was exploded? Fission wasn't even known, until 1938. It only took 7 years between that, and the first atomic bomb explosion.

    Once the "secret" is found for FTL travel, it will come quickly.
    C'mon, everyone knows that warp drives will be available in the next 50 years. After World War 3, a scientist will launch a space ship capable of warp 1, which in turn will be detected by some Vulcans. Thus warp travel and alien encounter will happen in 1 night.
    If you are lucky you might see some people from the 24th century helping out here and there

    What? A TNG reference in a board full of SW fans ? It is Saturday night, I am bored, bring it on ;)
    PoochyBrickDancerparadisia
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,236
    mathew said:

    ^ A Cantina set would be great. The problem is that to do it right would involve a ton of minifigs and a sizable amount of bricks. I mean it could be done in a way like Mines of Moria with just a few walls and tables, but with it being Star Wars it would be priced at at least $120 USD if not more.

    120? That is fine :-)
    I would not mind seeing the Cantina done REALLY well and paying 180 for it to be honest.
    I would not mind them doing a Cloud City REALLY well and have it be the replacement for the DS.
    dragonhawkPitfall69Yodaliciousmomof2boys99
  • jturnbull65jturnbull65 Member Posts: 19

    Shame, rather than spending a trillion dollars on the banks, why didn't we just use that money to build a permanent moon base and a mission to Mars? I have no doubt a trillion dollars would do both things.

    Oversimplifying, yes? It wasn't an "either/or" decision. And the bailout wasn't actually a trillion dollars; it was initially authorized to be $700 billion and Dodd-Frank reduced it to $475 billion. Only $350 billion ended up going towards bailing out banks, and that money purchased assets and equity. As it turns out, all the money lent to banks has been paid back (assets and equity repurchased, actually).

    This is a whole different animal than funding a space program, which would be real expenditures in materials and labor not able to be reclaimed.
    pharmjod said:

    If you can actually cite real world evidence of this that isn't some government spun data I would LOVE to see that.

    Here is a recent article that summarizes it concisely:
    http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/19/news/economy/tarp-breaking-even/index.html
    And there's a chart in this wikipedia article that also breaks out the repayments:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troubled_Asset_Relief_Program

    I'm not sure if you still categorize this as government spun data, but I'm pretty sure the data is accurate as you can painstakingly check the balance sheets of the banks in the quarters that they repurchased.
    Dougout
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    There was talk of a modular cantina in another thread a while back. That would be fine. Sort of like they are doing with Jabbas Palace and the Rancor pit.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^That's fine, but look at all the products and technologies that the space program has created. Far outweighs any bailout in my opinion.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Anyway, I wouldn't mind a Cantina Playset like that of the Death Star. Just get it done in one fell "swoop".
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    pharmjod said:

    itsnotme said:

    I must point out that the government (taxpayers) has made a profit on the "bailout"

    If you can actually cite real world evidence of this that isn't some government spun data I would LOVE to see that. Considering we had to borrow our butts off just to fund the "bailout" and are continuing to have to borrow our butts off just to function on a daily basis, I'm calling BS on this comment. A depression may have been avoided but at what cost? China continues to own us and we have a government that can't/won't stop spending money it doesn't have (which is what put us in the position to need a "bailout" in the first place). People love to bash it for a reason. It was a terrible idea then, and is a terrible idea now.
    The profit came from the way in which the gov't "bailed out" the financial institutions involved. Although many of the "bailouts" were described as "bailouts," they were much more akin to bridge loans than anything else. When the financial crisis hit in 2008, most of the institutions who received huge chunks of TARP money, for example, were not fundamentally unsound. The problem they ran into was that most relied on multi-billion dollar loans that came due and were typically renewed each day. Once Lehman failed, everyone got spooked and the overnight lenders became less willing to lend for fear that they might be lending to the next Lehman and that, as a result, they might lose their loan. Once that happened, the banks and other institutions who relied on short term funding found themselves in a situation where they couldn't fund their day to day activities. It wasn't that they lacked the assets to cover the money they needed on a day to day basis, but was completely a situation where they couldn't access the value of those assets to fund their operations. When the government stepped in, it basically pumped money into those institutions to facilitate lending and increase confidence in the market so that everyone would start lending again. In return, the government took equity positions in those companies. Once the market stabilized and the value of that equity rose, the government sold out and made money off of those sales. This is an overly simplistic explanation that doesn't account for a lot of the nuance, but it is the basic gist of how the government ended up making money.


    Dougout
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    Sorry, but I feel the need to jump into this conversation:). The bailouts did not avert a depression, but rather they only put off the inevitable. The constitution does not provide for the government to run the economy. They work for us, remember that. The government's spending is out of control, and we are rapidly accruing debt that is near impossible to pay off, debt to China. What is going to happen when China decides to collect that debt that we can't pay. The dollar has been devalued so much. Our dollar is not backed by gold. The fall of the USD will in turn lead to an economic collapse of much greater scale than that of the Great Depression. Yet, we follow like blind sheep and believe everything the government and main stream media tells us. We follow along, even if it is against the constitution, because the government knows best. The government does not care about what is in our best interest, they care about their agendas and lining their pockets.
    gmpiratemdellemanFollowsCloselymurrough
  • jturnbull65jturnbull65 Member Posts: 19
    mathew said:

    As much as I admire the history of NASA, the future of space travel will be mostly funded privately. I don't have a problem with this. I think we need to fix the problems here on earth before we invest it in going to Mars. Mars unfortunately appears to be desolate of life. I truly believe there is life out there, but we'll need a better form of space travel than rockets to ever get beyond our solar system.

    I agree that private funding is the new reality for the US, but unlike you, I think there are problems with this. There's no doubt the approaches and solutions will be innovative and necessarily more cost-efficient, but it also means we're replacing collaboration with competition. The goals will be smaller and some truly monumental advancements will be out of scope for a long time.

    The real travesty is that the human race has not been able to come together to make these advancements, and instead nations waste time and money on duplicating work. I think eventually we will collaborate, probably when faced with the realization of our imminent demise. My hope, then, is that it won't be too late.

    This is a tangent, but this is a real great quote from Hammerbacher, the former research scientist at Facebook: "The best minds of my generation are thinking about how to make people click ads. That sucks."

    By the way, a strong motivation for finding life, or the evidence of prior life, is to understand and develop the conditions to sustain it. Even if it turns out that our Mars exploration yielded nothing promising, the mission itself advanced space exploration and the processes we use to gather and evaluate data. Landing on the moon just to walk on it didn't yield much value, but the technologies we developed to reach that goal, such as long range communications, and inspiring a generation of scientists are what was important.
    Dougout
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    So...I wonder when the Death Star will EOL???
  • samiam391samiam391 A log cabin in PA, United StatesMember Posts: 4,395
    edited January 2013
    Perhaps it's time for a thread title change...

    Predictions on discontinuing NASA and the dollar's secondary market value?

    I think this type of discussion is excellent, however this is a LEGO forum.

    So.. lets try and get back on the LEGO topic.... politics, dollar value, government can be discussed elsewhere please..
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    Pitfall69 said:

    So...I wonder when the Death Star will EOL???

    Just before I have the money to buy one.
    LegobrandonCPFollowsCloselyYodaliciousPenkid11
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited January 2013
    ^ I agree with most of what you are saying. Unfortunately, we have hit a certain dead-end with space travel using current technology. It's just not feasible to send a man (or woman) to Mars and be able to bring them back using primitive rockets. That's not to say that moth balling the US shuttle program is the right thing to do. Hopefully NASA will develop a new space program that rivals the shuttle one. BTW, it took the shuttle program to re-ignite public interest in the space program. The trick is in getting the public interested enough to vote with their tax dollars to increase funding. That's just not going to happen at this time or in the foreseeable future.

    Just to add: There's an interesting documentary called Man on a Mission: Richard Garriott's Road to the Stars that is worth checking out.

    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1611990/
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    Oversimplifying, yes? It wasn't an "either/or" decision. And the bailout wasn't actually a trillion dollars; it was initially authorized to be $700 billion and Dodd-Frank reduced it to $475 billion. Only $350 billion ended up going towards bailing out banks, and that money purchased assets and equity. As it turns out, all the money lent to banks has been paid back (assets and equity repurchased, actually).

    You have been lied to, but that's ok... :) Most people don't want to hear the truth, but the bailout was much larger than that, they just didn't tell anyone. It is not secret, it is just burried on page 144 of a 266 page document that no one actually reads.

    Hidden in plain sight:

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/60553686/GAO-Fed-Investigation#outer_page_144

    Over $16 Trillion (yes, that is Trillion with a T) has been loaned to the banks in the past few years.

    It is all funny money, and I suppose the banks have to give it back at some point, but the truth is much uglier than TARP.

    -----

    Now as a side note, I get it, I really do. If they had not done so, our very way of life would have ended 4 years ago. So they had to do it.

    Why? Because events have been happening over the past 40 years that set this up. We shouldn't have left the gold standard, we shouldn't be allowing the Fed to control the money supply, and we sure as heck shouldn't allow the banks to do this:

    http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/derivatives/bank_exposure.html

    But we did, so they had no choice. It will be interesting to see in 10-20 years what becomes of all this.
    mdellemanpharmjod
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    Here is a recent article that summarizes it concisely:
    http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/19/news/economy/tarp-breaking-even/index.html
    And there's a chart in this wikipedia article that also breaks out the repayments:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troubled_Asset_Relief_Program

    I'm not sure if you still categorize this as government spun data, but I'm pretty sure the data is accurate as you can painstakingly check the balance sheets of the banks in the quarters that they repurchased.

    BTW, the above just shows the masterfulness of "hey look over here in this hand, TARP, lots of money, now watch my hand very carefully".

    And while doing so, no one watches the other hand (or most people don't).

    Old trick, works well.

    So yes, TARP is fine. But TARP isn't the issue.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^The bubble wrap discussion is looking mighty good right about now
    BumblepantsUKtsumimadforLEGO
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^Everyone has a point whether it is considered good or bad. We should definitely end and keep to the thread topic.

    "Good. Bad. I'm the guy with the gun"
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ But did Han shoot first?
    FollowsClosely
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    275 copies of Imperial Shuttle left on Amazon.

    Those may well last a lot longer now that they aren't on sale.

    2 weeks is my guess, but really I'm just tossing darts at the dart board on this one.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    edited January 2013

    ^ But did Han shoot first?

    Why should he ? When you can dodge laser beam from 4 feet away, shooting 2nd is always an option ;)

    On topic, I am not touching IS or DS as I do not think I can sell a LEGO set for $400 or $600 even after OOS. There, more IS and DS for you guys. Btw, I heard DS is retiring soon....

  • jturnbull65jturnbull65 Member Posts: 19
    edited January 2013


    You have been lied to, but that's ok... :) Most people don't want to hear the truth, but the bailout was much larger than that, they just didn't tell anyone. It is not secret, it is just burried on page 144 of a 266 page document that no one actually reads.

    Hidden in plain sight:

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/60553686/GAO-Fed-Investigation#outer_page_144

    Over $16 Trillion (yes, that is Trillion with a T) has been loaned to the banks in the past few years.

    It is all funny money, and I suppose the banks have to give it back at some point, but the truth is much uglier than TARP.

    Those funds you are referencing are short term loans auctioned to banks under TAF run by the federal reserve. That's a different thing entirely than government spending on banks where they could have otherwise funded the space program.

    Since those were short term loans, they have all been repaid as shown in a chart in the same doc you linked:
    http://www.scribd.com/doc/60553686/GAO-Fed-Investigation#outer_page_150

    I sense where you are wanting to go with wording like "lied to", "truth", "didn't tell anyone", "buried", but I don't think that's an exercise fit for this forum.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    y2josh said:

    I know we like to kid around about the Death Star, but has anyone legitimately considered that the pendulum may have swung the other way on this one? At this point, wouldn't 10188 ACTUALLY retiring be an honest surprise? Additionally, we say 'everyone and their brother' is hording these, but is it really a set that Joe Average can sit on for years? It's a heavy investment, and it takes up a lot of space. I'm just curious to see what others think, as even with all the talk of it being a dead investment at this point, I still maintain that it will hit $600 nearly immediately upon EOL.</blockquote
    To an extent I agree yes. I cant see many hording 10188 in vast quanties except maybe LFT ;-). As like you its a heavy investment and take up space. I have an understanding wife (at times!) who has let me have a room full of IS's, I only have 2 DS's at the moment as I have to flip all the IS's first. That will take me some time so I hope DS doesnt retire until 2014/15 ;-). In saying that I cant see that many people having say 20+ copies by the time it retires. Its such a popular set IMO demand would out strip supply assuming folks are not asking for say $800 to start with.


  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited January 2013
    DS is a great buy, considering price for piece count (as LFT has said). But it will require a long wait to get a true net 2x return, weight being a big factor there. I see a lot of people who will get impatient and dump for a modest $100 gain.

    Once 2x is reached, the rise to 3x and 4x will be quicker.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I.E. - Let's say you bought 1 for $360 (and many of us bought these for $400). To get net 2x - this will need to sell for $900, factoring in 15% eBay/Paypal fees; $40 for shipping; and the $360 cost of purchase. This is pre-tax profit as well. Just ballparking it.
  • BELTRADBELTRAD Scotland, United KingdomMember Posts: 91
    When 10188 is retired do you think it will reach the same heights as 10143? And how quickly do think it will happen?

    I think that the 10143 is a better looking model for display (I know a lot think 10188 is better looking) but if I can pick up the newer one and in few years I can swap for older one might a be a move I'd consider.
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    The FB was down to $111 on Walmart.com US last night. It quickly went out of stock. Why is everyone discounting this set so heavily? Then again they had the DS for $269 last August so who knows.....
  • thehockeyboythehockeyboy Member Posts: 97
    With all the pointless arguments and useless ramblings, this forum is now unreadable and useless.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    With all the pointless arguments and useless ramblings, this forum is now unreadable and useless.

    :). We try to keep it all in here...

    May the Force be with you... Always...
    FollowsCloselythehockeyboyPenkid11Yodalicious
  • xeeeejxeeeej Member Posts: 71

    With all the pointless arguments and useless ramblings, this forum is now unreadable and useless.

    A clever strategy, really. Make it useless, drive away the riffraff, then recommence with the real discussion.

    FollowsCloselyLegoFanTexasthehockeyboypharmjodPitfall69Penkid11hoyatablesmdelleman
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Uh-Oh. xeeeej has cracked the code!
    thehockeyboy
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Too early to start discussing shortages for the new BTTF Cuusoo model that was approved? I am excited for this one....huge fan of the movies. Hope they choose a high price point and sell strong so the Michael J Fox Foundation gets a good chunk.

    Yodalicious
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890

    Too early to start discussing shortages for the new BTTF Cuusoo model that was approved? I am excited for this one....huge fan of the movies. Hope they choose a high price point and sell strong so the Michael J Fox Foundation gets a good chunk.

    I don't see this being anything at all like minecraft, regarding demand. This really just appeals to 35+ year old AFOL BTTF freaks, if you ask me. Kids won't be asking for this...
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,053

    Too early to start discussing shortages for the new BTTF Cuusoo model that was approved? I am excited for this one....huge fan of the movies. Hope they choose a high price point and sell strong so the Michael J Fox Foundation gets a good chunk.

    I think this one will disappoint. The audience is too small, I am surprised that TLG moved forward with this set.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Yeah...there are no impending movie releases to bring it back to the forefront. Kids would much rather have Ninjago...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^True, but from time to time you see Back to the Future themed commercials. I just saw one the other day.
    tk79
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    While I am loathe to admit it, I also agree that BTTF will be nowhere near as big as munecraft was/is. I hope I'm proved wrong, but we will see. At least it will likely be easier to get, which will make me happy.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    edited January 2013
    Pitfall69 said:
    ^^ This seller has to be a scam. They had an IF with bids of $2,100+ last night. Plus look at everything they have for sale. I find it extremely hard they have all of that in stock, and yet not a single photo other than images pulled from online sources.
  • smellywormsmellyworm Member Posts: 34
    That guy has the best of the best. Why not throw up a diamond ring while he is at it. Ebay has become a complete disaster.
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    ^^ someone on brickpicker reported this eBay seller a week ago. Last week he had 10+ Maersk trains for sale, all over $200 with multiple bids. Huge scam of you ask me....
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^Ha, yeah I haven't monitored this account, but scam or not, does the completed listings get deleted if the seller is reported?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I should have probably done my research before posting :(
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    BTTF will be a fun set to see in production. Definitely excited about it. There isn't much to compare it too from a resell perspective. However, if the initial batch is small (like Minecraft), I could see it sellout quick, with some fast resell opportunities. Then when Lego restocks, it doesn't sell out again.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    prevere said:

    BTTF will be a fun set to see in production. Definitely excited about it. There isn't much to compare it too from a resell perspective. However, if the initial batch is small (like Minecraft), I could see it sellout quick, with some fast resell opportunities. Then when Lego restocks, it doesn't sell out again.

    I'll be onto this set like a rat up a drainpipe :-)

  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    I think BTTF will do really well, second only to Minecraft as far as cuusoo sets.

    Minecraft was a bit of an anomaly, but I do not think BTTF will be a failure at all.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,236
    <
    prevere said:

    DS is a great buy, considering price for piece count (as LFT has said). But it will require a long wait to get a true net 2x return, weight being a big factor there. I see a lot of people who will get impatient and dump for a modest $100 gain.

    Once 2x is reached, the rise to 3x and 4x will be quicker.

    I think DS is on sale right now on Walmart for 358 or something like that, unless it was taken back up to 399
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,236
    edited January 2013
    RichB said:

    The FB was down to $111 on Walmart.com US last night. It quickly went out of stock. Why is everyone discounting this set so heavily? Then again they had the DS for $269 last August so who knows.....

    I think cause they simply are not selling at Retail and maybe, just maybe, they are gone in the early spring like someone suggested. Surprised that Amazon did not price match this yet (if they will) Id buy them for 111 and apparently a lot of others would too.
    I think this is what happens if LEGO keeps a set out forever.. will they sell? Sure but most that would be willing to pay the 150 already have them with only a handful of new buyers, where as I'm sure many more people will buy the Palace Cinema regardless if it is at 150 IMO( although I would wait for them to be on sale as would most here)..
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