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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • jturnbull65jturnbull65 Member Posts: 19
    LegoFanTexas said:

    Envy is an ugly color my friend...

    My ability or not to buy that much of a set is completly beside the point. Perhaps I can only afford 10 of them, it really doesn't change anything.

    My point is that there may not be many sets worth buying that much of (Fire Brigade is not, for example), but Minecraft was one of them. Note the "was" in that sentence, I think the time has past.

    Although envy seems to be your standard refrain when someone finds your bragging distasteful, it certainly is not applicable in my case. I am certain that I have bought, sold, and currently own more LEGO than you. But THAT, my friend, is truly beside the point.

    What is not beside the point is the reality of your LEGO investing not approaching anything near what you were suggesting you are willing to do. It's laughable to cite the pre-christmas Minecraft as an example to support your claim. That purchase would simultaneously require a time machine to allow hindsight to completely remove the element of risk and a reality distortion field to remove buying limits.

    Given those unrealistic parameters, who wouldn't buy everything they could? But that scenario is not the same as your assertion that you are willing to take a position equivalent to $125k on a set. You didn't mention risk, opportunity cost, or anything else as a case against it, but simply that the set wasn't popular enough. So, in your vast LEGO reselling experience, did you ever take anything near that large a position or was I correct about being an order of magnitude lower? If you haven't, it was simply because no set was popular enough, right?
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    edited January 2013
    LegoFanTexas said:

    flyingpig said:

    LFT, why continue to buy FB when you know (tens of) thousands are already stockpiled?

    That is a great question. Because even with that many copies out there, being able to buy them for $120 is still not a bad deal, I'll still double that in 1-2 years after it EOLs.
    I agree, by current standards $250 for an EOL MISB Modular is un-heard of and you would be disappointed if that is all it fetched. sure it would be nice for the FB to hit >$1000 but doubling your money in two years is still an excellent return, on top of that think of all those little TIMMY's (Cough! AFOL's Cough!) who may have missed getting the FB, being able to pick it up for a much more reasonable price.
  • jturnbull65jturnbull65 Member Posts: 19
    Dougts: I view you as a reseller who consistently contributes value to these discussions, so I will drop it, but I would like to clarify my intention which is not silly, petty, or completely off topic.

    LFT is never shy in offering his opinion or advice, and there are many who value it, which is a dangerous thing when left unchecked. I'm not saying he is deliberately giving poor advice, but i believe it was appropriate to call into question his willingness to invest six figures into a set without ever having come close to that kind of exposure.
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,492
    I think its time for everyone to take a break and build with some bricks... :)
    LegoFanTexas
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    @jturnbull65 just wanted to quickly add, as someone who values the advice of many on this forum including LFT, I personally did not think it was distasteful bragging.

    It came across more of a, "with what I know now and if I had the means I would do....", which most of us would. Same as me wishing I had grabbed a 100k worth of the first 3 Modular's at or below retail :)
    Pitfall69LegoFanTexas
  • btmarine23btmarine23 Member Posts: 3
    I don't think it scales very well at those kind of numbers. The ability to shift that much product would be..well difficult. Not too mention the fact you would be releasing so much product that the price would just crater on itself.

    As far as advice or information gleaned on these forums...I would say all info on here is worth what your paying for it.

    I would also say that a constructive conversation would be about what sets to consider (as a collective whole who value each others opinions) looking forward and not "I purchased 71 FB." It serves absolutely ZERO purpose in disclosing how much you purchased in real life or fantasy Lego life.

    I think its all low hanging fruit and that draws in a interesting crowd.
    forumreadermadforLEGOLegoFanTexas
  • itsnotmeitsnotme Member Posts: 126
    Quantifying your LEGO inventory is at least relevant to the topic. The same can't be said for advertising how much you make away from LEGO or what kind of car you drive, which I have seen here before.

    So, anyway, QAR seems to be performing well...
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    ^ reminds me, need to list my QARs and BPs....
  • Brick_ObsessionBrick_Obsession Member Posts: 656
    The QAR's are still low in my opinion right now. I see them roughly at $150.00 on BL.

    Can anyone speculate if they think they will go up further?
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited January 2013
    ^Based on #10210 which seems to sell for around $300 to $325 on ebay currently (about 160% to 180% of MSRP), I would venture an educated guess that we might see the QAR hover at around $190 to $215 for the near future.
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,492
    I think so. Even after $70 and lower sales (even continuing today at a few WMs), those things are fetching a fair price on eBay. It's definitely a wanted set, and even I am somewhat attracted to both pirate ships, I just haven't pulled the trigger. I think once the sales end at WM (almost there!), prices will trend up at a good rate.
  • RichBRichB Member Posts: 52
    edited January 2013
    itsnotme said:



    So, anyway, QAR seems to be performing well...

    Brick_Obsession said:

    The QAR's are still low in my opinion right now. I see them roughly at $150.00 on BL.

    Can anyone speculate if they think they will go up further?


    QAR does seem to be doing quite well. I see it getting to the mid $200s by summer or fall of this year. The Maersk Train isn't doing quite as well as QAR, but still seems to be doing pretty well. Where do you all see this set getting to later this year? I'm hoping mid $200s as well.

  • jturnbull65jturnbull65 Member Posts: 19
    @Basta: with all due respect, that wasn't what LFT said, and I think he would attest to it. He has previously been wistful when talking about the past, i.e. accumulating too much 50% PoP, Atlantis, or not recognizing the desirability of AT-OT. In those instances he clearly expressed the benefit of hindsight.
    LegoFanTexas said:

    Of course, even if there was no limit, 513 of them would be $123K worth and while I'm willing to go deep on a popular set, this one just isn't it. :)

    In this case he was talking about buying in the present, buying limit and unpopularity notwithstanding. So rather than the "with what I know now and if I had the means I would do" that you suggest, it reads as "I have the means, but I choose not to".
  • Penkid11Penkid11 Member Posts: 788
    I took a quick look at my now finished 2012 calendar's set images. And then it hit me. Pretty much every set here is going (or already is) EOL. And now looking a the 2013 calendar... I think what we've heard isn't as far out as it seems. O_o
  • jturnbull65jturnbull65 Member Posts: 19
    edited January 2013
    Before I'm stoned into submission, I thought I'd illustrate another example where exaggeration gets the better of LFT and creeps into his insight and advice
    LegoFanTexas said:

    momof2boys99 said:

    Oh LFT....don't ya think 6 figures of any set is too much supply? I think that is just way to much of a gamble. For gosh sake....that could buy my first house! Yikes!!

    $100,000 worth of minecraft at RRP is only 2,857 sets. A few months ago, I could have sold that many at 2x RRP in a week. So no, it isn't too much.
    Brickpicker reports the following across all of eBay:
    October - 1200 sold
    November - 1460 sold

    Bricklink shows: 940 sold over 6 months.

    How feasible does it look for one seller to move 2800 in just one week? Isn't this routine type of exaggeration a disservice?
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    @jturnbull65 I didn't mean to make it read like I was quoting LFT, just more the vibe of what he said and how I interpreted it. I stand by that.

    As far as selling 2800 in a week, don't forget he said at double retail, most of the ones you listed sold at much more then that, plus he has other avenues to sell them such as Amazon.

    Maybe 2800 in a week is a little ambitious but Who knows :)


  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    Guys, would someone mind telling me how to see how many is amazon.com have left as I'm hoping to bag 2 more next week :)
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    littlepuppi said:

    Guys, would someone mind telling me how to see how many is amazon.com have left as I'm hoping to bag 2 more next week :)

    On the mobile app at least add an item to your cart and then view your cart, in here change QTY to 999. Click done and you should get a message saying "you have added more then the xxx available" etc. I think it only works for things with less then 1000 available.

  • tom4086tom4086 Member Posts: 689
    I've the option to pick up additional #10216 sets at retail. Do we see this one doing well?
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ I don't think so. Its only 2x RRP right now.
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    tom4086 said:

    I've the option to pick up additional #10216 sets at retail. Do we see this one doing well?

    The Winter Toy Shop #10199 sells for about $150 on eBay at the moment, I'm not sure of the original RRP but I assume similar to #10216 so that's a pretty good increase. I recently got two extras, so I hope they do as well.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    I never realized the Bakery came back on S&H. Missed that. Also, I thought for sure there would be some in stores this past season. Oh, well . . .
  • ptericpteric Member Posts: 156
    Let me ask you guys something, before they were retired did anyone stockpile on Cafe Corner, Greem Grocer, and UCS Millinium Falcon? How many?
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    Basta said:

    littlepuppi said:

    Guys, would someone mind telling me how to see how many is amazon.com have left as I'm hoping to bag 2 more next week :)

    On the mobile app at least add an item to your cart and then view your cart, in here change QTY to 999. Click done and you should get a message saying "you have added more then the xxx available" etc. I think it only works for things with less then 1000 available.

    Thanks Basta, that worked a treat, 413 available for anyone interested... Get paid on the 6th, will grab my last 2!
  • BastaBasta Member Posts: 1,259
    littlepuppi said:

    Basta said:

    littlepuppi said:

    Guys, would someone mind telling me how to see how many is amazon.com have left as I'm hoping to bag 2 more next week :)

    On the mobile app at least add an item to your cart and then view your cart, in here change QTY to 999. Click done and you should get a message saying "you have added more then the xxx available" etc. I think it only works for things with less then 1000 available.

    Thanks Basta, that worked a treat, 413 available for anyone interested... Get paid on the 6th, will grab my last 2!
    Two Imperial Shuttles sold since I just checked before I posted the above then. So from this huge sample they sell 2 every 15 minutes, 8 an hour, 192 a day. Lol
  • BillybrownBillybrown Member Posts: 748
    edited January 2013
    The UK and assuming the rest of the EU have also got on the bandwagon for the IS. So the stock levels will take a battering from all parts of the world by the looks of things.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    edited January 2013
    LFT also said Lego could sell millions of the Minecraft set. Then like a week later [email protected] had stock for days. He has also given me bad advice in private concerning my own sales strategy. I ended up getting the price I wanted. I don't necessarily think he intentionally gives out bad advice. I just don't think he always knows what he is talking about.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    edited January 2013
    mathew said:

    LFT also said Lego could sell millions of the Minecraft set. Then like a week later [email protected] had stock for days.

    Amazingly, not everyone knows to look on [email protected] regularly. Look once, they give you a date long into the future when it is going to be restocked. So you look elsewhere and don't bother going back. Same thing happened in the UK. [email protected] had stock in before Christmas, yet is was still going at RRP+30% on ebay. Just because [email protected] have it instock, don't expect people to buy it from there. It is still easy to sell the set for more in a place where people look.
    mathew said:


    He has also given me bad advice in private concerning my own sales strategy. I ended up getting the price I wanted.

    "Ended up" suggests you waited. Maybe you were not clear in what you wanted in the advice - a quick sale for a decent profit or a longer wait for a better price. Advice is there to think about, but not necessarily always correct. No-one (not even LEGO) knows 100% what the market will do.

    No doubt you won't be getting private advice again.
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    Advice is just opinions at the end of the day, which are as fallible as anything else in this world. By adding opinions to your own knowledge gives you the capability to improve your opinion to be as accurate as possible, but as CCC says, you cannot predict the market, you just have to try as hard as possible to make the most rational choices and hope you get it right...

    From what I have read from LFT he puts himself out there, personally I like that, as I don't like to be as open as that, but its nice to read and follow someone who is, and as seems to happen, some people seem to like to shoot him down...

    LP
  • JP3804JP3804 Member Posts: 332
    ^ agree
    @ LegoFanTexas, You just can't win. Last Jan. it was the WalMart buying ( poor little Timmy ) and now this.
    I think if I were you I would just lurk in Jan. ;-)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Let's just squash this before it gets out of hand. @LegoFanTexas does put himself out there, but to assume that he puts out bad advice on purpose to throw people off seems alittle misguided. There are many times where I have read "I could be wrong" at the end of his comments. I think everyone should take any commentary here with a grain of salt. Nothing is concrete and one persons way of doing business may not work for another.

    I own a business, but my business model works for me. LFT's business model works for him.

    timinchicago
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,332
    pteric said:

    Let me ask you guys something, before they were retired did anyone stockpile on Cafe Corner, Greem Grocer, and UCS Millinium Falcon? How many?

    For me...
    MF x 2
    CC x 2
    GG x 20
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    jturnbull65 said:

    Before I'm stoned into submission, I thought I'd illustrate another example where exaggeration gets the better of LFT and creeps into his insight and advice

    LegoFanTexas said:

    momof2boys99 said:

    Oh LFT....don't ya think 6 figures of any set is too much supply? I think that is just way to much of a gamble. For gosh sake....that could buy my first house! Yikes!!

    $100,000 worth of minecraft at RRP is only 2,857 sets. A few months ago, I could have sold that many at 2x RRP in a week. So no, it isn't too much.
    Brickpicker reports the following across all of eBay:
    October - 1200 sold
    November - 1460 sold

    Bricklink shows: 940 sold over 6 months.

    How feasible does it look for one seller to move 2800 in just one week? Isn't this routine type of exaggeration a disservice?
    This is a silly argument because it doesn't account for Amazon. Given how quickly Minecraft sold out at Amazon, B&N, and WM when it came available during the holiday period, I have no doubt that someone could have moved thousands of copies of the set at 2x RRP if they had them available in the weeks leading up to Christmas.



    dragonhawk
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    JP3804 said:

    ^ agree
    @ LegoFanTexas, You just can't win. Last Jan. it was the WalMart buying ( poor little Timmy ) and now this.
    I think if I were you I would just lurk in Jan. ;-)

    The board does seem to be evolving given that there haven't been any posts (at least that I've seen) bemoaning all of the sets poor little Timmy missed out on because of cruel and heartless resellers.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    FollowsClosely said:

    pteric said:

    Let me ask you guys something, before they were retired did anyone stockpile on Cafe Corner, Greem Grocer, and UCS Millinium Falcon? How many?

    For me...
    MF x 2
    CC x 2
    GG x 20


    Fantastic! And curious, do you still have any of those stashed away?
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    And I will say I very much appreciate all of LFT's comments. Honest, insightful, fun. A pleasure to have on the forum.
    Sharifa
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    CCC said:

    mathew said:

    "Ended up" suggests you waited. Maybe you were not clear in what you wanted in the advice - a quick sale for a decent profit or a longer wait for a better price. Advice is there to think about, but not necessarily always correct. No-one (not even LEGO) knows 100% what the market will do.

    No doubt you won't be getting private advice again.

    Actually I wasn't asking for advice. He just told me in private that my asking price for a set that I was selling here on Brickset was too high. In the end I sold the set on ebay for even more than I was asking for on here.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,332
    prevere said:

    ...
    Fantastic! And curious, do you still have any of those stashed away?

    All 24 are long gone, I sold them at:

    MF @ $1,100
    CC @ $450
    GG x 5 @ $275 x15 @ $325

    As for stashed away, I still have a personal copy of each, that I have built (except the MF that is on my tobuild list). I do not regret selling any of them as I doubled my investment on each and every one.


  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    ^sounds like good advice then, you can usually get more on Ebay than here as brickset forum members tend to be savvy buyers.
    Pitfall69
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    tk79 said:

    ^sounds like good advice then, you can usually get more on Ebay than here as brickset forum members tend to be savvy buyers.

    That's true. I just thought it was presumptuous of him to tell me that my asking price was too high within hours of me listing it.



  • BillybrownBillybrown Member Posts: 748
    prevere said:

    And I will say I very much appreciate all of LFT's comments. Honest, insightful, fun. A pleasure to have on the forum.

    I concur, its all about opinions and comments, which are mostly subjective at the end of the day.

  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    edited January 2013
    jturnbull65 said:

    Before I'm stoned into submission, I thought I'd illustrate another example where exaggeration gets the better of LFT and creeps into his insight and advice

    LegoFanTexas said:

    momof2boys99 said:

    Oh LFT....don't ya think 6 figures of any set is too much supply? I think that is just way to much of a gamble. For gosh sake....that could buy my first house! Yikes!!

    $100,000 worth of minecraft at RRP is only 2,857 sets. A few months ago, I could have sold that many at 2x RRP in a week. So no, it isn't too much.
    Brickpicker reports the following across all of eBay:
    October - 1200 sold
    November - 1460 sold

    Bricklink shows: 940 sold over 6 months.

    How feasible does it look for one seller to move 2800 in just one week? Isn't this routine type of exaggeration a disservice?
    Bricklink sales often take a while to get going once a set is out. It often takes a while to get into the catalogue, fully inventoried, etc. During that time, many sets might get sold as custom lots. It also seems to be the way that when you first get the item, you put a crazy price on it and it will still sell to someone who desperately wants it. So this can slow down sales on bricklink, since most people on bricklink know they will be able to get it for a reasonable price if they wait until the price settles down and more sellers are in competition with each other. However, when sellers get stock see that they can get a crazy price, or they just list at the average sold price, then it can take a while to drop. I know I sold some Frodo polys for £12 (about $18) a piece back in July before it was in the database - so none of those are recorded. There was then some sales volume at £8 ($12) once in the database and others started selling them and then there was then quite slow sales at £4-5 ($6-8) in August-Oct as loads of sellers had them. Most of the time I kept my prices higher (not many people in Europe had them) as there was the odd sale at high price from people not wanting to buy from the US. I could easily have dumped them quickly at £4 and still made a profit.

    Often you will also find ebay auctions going for more than the crazy price the item is offered at on bricklink too. I managed to get rid of a load of Frodo polys at double bricklink average prices on ebay, even though the same item wasn't selling at fixed price for 1.5x the bricklink price.

    Something similar happened with Friends Chloe. I was the first person to sell a Chloe minifig on bricklink (officially, not as a custom) - two sold for £5 each - crazy price seeing as I paid less than £5 for the book she was in (and so I got all the other parts free) but someone wanted it and didn't want to wait for a drop in price. Her price was £5 / $8 for a couple of weeks as people listed theirs at the same price. It took a couple of weeks for them to drop to 50% of the value and for sales to start. I put this down to the way people list at bricklink for a new item. See what it sold for before, then slowly reduce the price. Don't start low, as once it is sold, it is sold. If it hasn't sold before, try a crazy price and see if it works. Meanwhile, sales are going on in many other venues. Some to lego fans, some to other people.

    Same thing happened with electrosuit batman. Same thing with Thor and the Cosmic Cube. Same thing has probably happened with many other sets and minifigs.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    I prefer ebay for both buying and selling. I know as a buyer I pay a premium for sets on ebay relative to bricklink but at the end of the day that is where I get the best customer service. Ebay and Paypal force sellers to stand behind their descriptions and delivery windows and as a consumer I have no problem paying extra for that.

  • Brick_ObsessionBrick_Obsession Member Posts: 656
    To quote my son:

    "Haters going to Hate!"

    Seriously, can we keep this thread for what it is intended for? If you want to discuss the art of selling real versus fantasy quantities and good versus bad advice then start another thread that is easy to ignore.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    edited January 2013
    Basta said:

    tom4086 said:

    I've the option to pick up additional #10216 sets at retail. Do we see this one doing well?

    The Winter Toy Shop #10199 sells for about $150 on eBay at the moment, I'm not sure of the original RRP but I assume similar to #10216 so that's a pretty good increase. I recently got two extras, so I hope they do as well.
    Why do I have the feeling TLG will be extending the life of their winter village series like they did with their modulars? Will we see 5 winter sets for sale concurrently in 2014?

  • BillybrownBillybrown Member Posts: 748
    Im curious as to whether Lego substantially reduced there production of 10216's as opposed to 10199's? For the UK 10199's was on sale for at least 2 weeks at £35 and then £25 (I think). It only now that its heading for 2 x RRP. Yet 10216 sold out well before Christmas without a sale, which has surprised those that had it on the wish list. Its been mentioned on other threads that Lego are wising up more in respect to their inventory.


  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Does this mean TLG isn't producing as much of these sets?
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    edited January 2013
    Reduced production. Likely. Coupled with better supply chain distribution based on sales.

    Honestly though, reduced BF or post-Xmas sales can be a huge help from a reselling perspective. Now, from a collector standpoint, it can force you to pay premiums if you missed something.
  • BillybrownBillybrown Member Posts: 748
    Pitfall69 said:

    Does this mean TLG isn't producing as much of these sets?

    Well thats my way of thinking at the moment. I suppose we'll never really know. It could be that they are passing off a lot of their stock to big retailers like Amazon, hence Lego.com have less online stock. But Im starting to think that they are producing less stock, the shops seem to be selling out quicker than last year as well.

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