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at the end of the day, the pool of willing collectors grows smaller and smaller and thus reduces the selling price of a discontinued set.
best time frame is around 1 to 2 years post EOL. after that you see a marked decrease in price. very few would actually achieve the batman 1 sets' prices.
UNLESS it is SW then the jury is out as they could readily re-release a newer version of the set that EOL and cause a collapse on the secondary market of the original set.
But there are many sets either holding their value or going up still after 1-2 EOL.
The real take away from this is that Lego has adjusted their tactics due to their overwhelming success in the last few years. More sets are going to people's hands as sets sit longer in production. You won't see the steep discounts that the Taj and UCS Falcon saw because everything in this category now gets gobbled up at a mere 20% off or more. Consumers are happy not having to overpay and more cash in Lego's pockets, but a blow to the aftermarket.
Question - Are modulars going to be around (released at 1 per year) for the next decade?
Even with Lego extending the lives of these, they delay the inevitable increase in value.
This does not take into consideration the number of people already buying the set for personal use throughout the years, which will decrease demands. High supply and lower demand (comparatively) equals disaster, no ?
Supply/Demand. Supply goes down. Demand stays constant. Prices goes up.
# of resellers are not going to outnumber the buyers. If that would happen, then you have a crash scenario on your hands.
Getting over $3k and staying there will be tough, there is a very limited market for any LEGO set over $3k.
In my opinion. :)
I'm sure there are lists on Brickset of what's not bee done yet. I do think the B-Wing is a bit of a dud at the price it's at. Hopefully the next one is a killer, say the Republic Gunship?
so if a UCS X-Wing hits the radar, shift those MF's :P
The only way i see a UCS MF coming back, would be to say goodbye to the licence in 10 years
Naturally the buyer wants to know where it is. This has never happened to me before, but I fear it is lost in the vast wasteland of the USPS.
My question is, what now? On the one hand, I did my part by packing and shipping it within 12 hours of pruchase and I don't want to be on the hook for the postal services ineptness. On the other hand, the buyer clearly doesn't want to be out their money either. I didn't insure it, and the set sold for <$50. Anyone with similar experience(s) have any suggestions on what I should do, or what the appropriate solution is?
(as an aside, while I always insure expensive sets, I never do anything <$100 as I find it almost offensive that the USPS is basically saying "we may lose or otherwise maul your package, but unless you pay us, tough luck.")
You sent it out at the appropriate pace. and the PO, not you, is the one holding it. Furthermore it is not lost. It is showing at the PO, and there is a record of it.
That being said I understand that you do not want a negative feedback but at the same time I fail to see you are at fault.
I would say maybe contact the PO and ask about the tracking and see if it fell behind or something.. Also ensure it was sent Priority and not parcel (if you used electronic mailing to make the shipping label) just to ensure you did not accidentally mark it as parcel post.
This is why I try not to sell anything on eBay right before Christmas.. the delivery is a wild card (even though they say it should be there in 'x' amount of days)
In this case, a few days are to be expected with Christmas rush, I would contact the buyer and point them to tracking and say it was shipped 12 hours after order and it should arrive soon, but that the post office is backed up.
I personally also point out that if the item never does arrive, the buyer has nothing to worry about because I will take care of it. I find that reassurance is very often helpful to a buyer knowing they can relax.
If the item never does arrive, ultimately you will have to refund the buyer. But you are a ways from that. I ask buyers to wait 5 weeks, often items do turn up. Paypal allows claims up to 6 weeks after payment, so this gives them a one week cushion to feel secure about it.
If the item has not been marked delivered by then, just refund them and move on. It happens.
I have an item sent via USPS Parcel Post a few days ago that only shows "Electronic Information Received" as the delivery confirmation status. I took it to the post office and handed it to a clerk behind the desk with 7 other packages which are all showing the packages moving along to their destinations.
I called USPS customer service to see if they could do anything. They said USPS employees technically only have to scan the delivery confirmation barcode when the item is delivered.
I've never had this happen before, but I imagine there are piles of packages being sent all over.
I know these things happen, but I am also not Amazon. @LFT - this is what I am struggling with. Assuming it never shows up one of us is screwed. As a large reseller or Amazon, "it happens" and is a cost of doing business. For smaller resellers its tougher to stomach.
Using the same thought process, if I am willing to accept that it happens and refund the buyer, shouldn't the vastly larger USPS also understand that "it happens" and reimburse me even though I didn't buy insurance. It's <$100 and I obviously have transactional proof of the value. Does the USPS even pay for claims on undelivered packages?
I'm likely out something either way. This was obviously purchased for Christmas, so even if it does ultimately show up, I'm sure it will be returned. Since I offer free shipping, I am at least out the shipping costs.
I have mailed over 1,000 items via the USPS over years, and never had one never show up. I have had a few that took weeks to arrive, but they finally made it.