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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

1164165167169170676

Comments

  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    This is way too early, but some of this years big SW sets are ugly to me personally. The B-Wing and Malevolence specifically, I wonder if other people think that and if it will impact future sales after they EOL.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002

    Love Helms Deep, but I'm a sucker for any castle. And i like the fact that you can add an infinite amount of Urak Hai sets to make it a little bigger. I have a huge one set up right now. Really dreading taking down 50-60 sets I have on display and selling them before I move. I'll keep the figs, but just can't take all the sets.

    I don't know what it is about 9474, but I think, in its default state, it's one of the worst modern castles TLG has designed. I have two of them set up right now (absolutely hated that there was no reason to blow up the deeping wall since it was so short that you could hop right over it), but I'm thinking about a third. I mentioned this in another thread, but Aglarond was always going to be a disappointing 'half-set' since it couldn't realistically feature the Glittering Caves... which are ostensibly the back half of the fortress.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002

    This is way too early, but some of this years big SW sets are ugly to me personally. The B-Wing and Malevolence specifically, I wonder if other people think that and if it will impact future sales after they EOL.

    I agree with you on the Malevolence (does anyone else find it odd that the Malevolence is marketed as the Malevolence but the Khettana is marketed as Jabba's Sail Barge?), but I actually really like the B-Wing. The only problem I see with the B-Wing, as seems to be the growing trend, is that it's ~20% too expensive at RRP.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    y2josh said:

    Love Helms Deep, but I'm a sucker for any castle. And i like the fact that you can add an infinite amount of Urak Hai sets to make it a little bigger. I have a huge one set up right now. Really dreading taking down 50-60 sets I have on display and selling them before I move. I'll keep the figs, but just can't take all the sets.

    I don't know what it is about 9474, but I think, in its default state, it's one of the worst modern castles TLG has designed. I have two of them set up right now (absolutely hated that there was no reason to blow up the deeping wall since it was so short that you could hop right over it), but I'm thinking about a third. I mentioned this in another thread, but Aglarond was always going to be a disappointing 'half-set' since it couldn't realistically feature the Glittering Caves... which are ostensibly the back half of the fortress.

    I agree the wall was too short to blow up, but I guess it would be a pain to blow up a larger wall and have a hard time putting it back together. I just really liked the curved walls. I've only built Helms Deep and Hogwarts as far as castles go, but I liked them both.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I love the LOTR sets, especially Helm's Deep with the Uruk-hai Army's you can add. There's no way this theme won't do well when it retires. I think the only reason it's always found on sale is because there is nothing to promote it.

    That will change once the Hobbit movies come out. New kids and AFOLs will be introduced that will want the LOTR sets they missed out on. Three new movies, even if they don't directly deal with LOTR, will push a lot of people into wanting the sets, but they won't be on retail shelves anymore at that point.

    I doubt we will see a Return of the King wave, but if there was I would love to see a Minas Tirith. It's highly improbable as it would have to be an expensive set and there is nothing to promote it. :(
  • legoprodslegoprods SpainMember Posts: 445
    So... too son to start discussing secondary marked value on the new Lone Rangers? :D

    For anyone who doesn't know, the new site is up at Lego.com
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ yes, there a separate thread on it . . .
  • UKtsumiUKtsumi Member Posts: 626
    Does anyone think (have any opinions) the #7597 toy story train and #7594 woodys round up will increase in value again now considering the Lone Ranger western theme is about to start?
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    gmpirate said:

    Does Walmart even carry Friends anymore? I haven't seen any sets in stores for it seems months.

    All of mine moved them out of the LEGO aisle a few months back to where Barbie, etc. is located.

  • mressinmressin Lego City... erm LondonMember Posts: 843
    ^ I think I read it here on Brickset somewhere that Lego encourages retailers to put Friends into a separate section from normal Lego.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Is anyone selling last year's SW Advent Calendar? If so, how's it doing?
  • thehockeyboythehockeyboy Member Posts: 97
    ^ mass produced and mass markdowns after Christmas, you most likely will want to wait one more year for any value. Also, majority of buyers ive encountered use it as an actual advent calendar, so the ship may have sailed for this year.
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    ^ On a related issue, I must say I am not keen on this years calendar as of up to day 9. Having far more excitement with my daughters friends calendar. I never thought I would be saying that. so many dull re-hashes in the star wars calendar.
  • itsnotmeitsnotme Member Posts: 112
    ^ Friends calendar has been a great introduction to the theme for my daughter. She loves it.
  • thehockeyboythehockeyboy Member Posts: 97
    Yeah, this years star wars calendar doesn't seem to cut it. I knew with the 2011 that worst case scenario (ie I need more storage room) I could always just part it out... there will always be a demand for Santa Yoda! Plus 11 minifigs... pretty easy to flip those. I just don't see the value in the 2012 SW and, with the higher $50 RRP, would only consider them at 70% off
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337


    Of course, it is also on the set that is already overpriced. :) If it was Helm's Deep for 30% off, it would be a no-brainer in my humble opinion.

    Kmart.com has it for 40% off right now when you purchase 2. B1G1 50% plus use KMART10PSAVINGS for another 10%. Checkout using your Discovercard for another 10% off. On SD now so you may want to hurry. Never had any interest in LOTR but I scooped this set...seems to be a good bet at this price.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    ^ OOS
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    yep, oos
  • Penkid11Penkid11 Member Posts: 789
    edited December 2012
    ^They will probably decrease being that all signs lead to better sets being produced than Toy Story. Also, why would someone overpay for a set that is inferior to a set still in production?

    We honestly have to see the sets first.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    With the new Rupublic Gunship and AT-TE coming out this year, does anyone think it is a good idea to sell #10195? This set can't hold it's value when those are released, can it?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    10195 is in a class all its own, and probably will never be done again, given its size.

    What will tank in value is 7676 and 7675

    Hmm... Anyone want to buy that pair? ;)
    FollowsClosely
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    edited December 2012
    ^ star wars in general seems to be tanking somewhat on the aftermarket. Well that's an exageration, but it is at least falling back. I blame the many rehashes. Obviously still a strong market for premium models like the ucs line and other classics such as the sandcrawler, but there seems to be some serious waning enthusiasm for many mid sized sets.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    ^Ok thanks, I honestly hope 7676 and 7675 drop a bit, it will give me a chance to get #7676 at a decent price.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    @richo not many SW sets make it onto my buy list for reselling even tho they are what originally got me into this game many years ago. I do go for the nicer UCS models and shippy OT sets such as the Tantive but most of it just does not fit my criteria as a good investment.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    I think the fact that the number of resellers has blown up is causing a slight devaluation in some of the SW stuff. 5 years ago I can't imagine there were that many.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I think rehash after rehash is the culprit, not large groups of phantom resellers.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654

    10195 is in a class all its own, and probably will never be done again, given its size.

    What will tank in value is 7676 and 7675

    Hmm... Anyone want to buy that pair? ;)

    Aye, is why I sold all mine earlier in the year. There's normally a 2 year period in between releases for such sets. TT's will have two years now, and soon the current Falcon's are going on vacation for a bit.
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,350

    I think the fact that the number of resellers has blown up is causing a slight devaluation in some of the SW stuff. 5 years ago I can't imagine there were that many.

    I agree, I've resold lots of small / medium SW sets at nice profits, but mainly the ones that aren't rehashes, namely 7667,7668,7673,7674,7753,7752,7751,7868,7669 etc

  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,350

    I think rehash after rehash is the culprit, not large groups of phantom resellers.

    quoted wrong post above, should've been this one by @doriansdad

    I agree, I've resold lots of small / medium SW sets at nice profits, but mainly the ones that aren't rehashes, namely 7667,7668,7673,7674,7753,7752,7751,7868,7669 etc
  • wilburwilbur Member Posts: 49
    edited December 2012
    Anybody have any insight into the Prince of Persia line? I know its been retired for over a year now. Amazon has moderate sales right now. I'm wondering particularly if 7573 (the Almut) will ever appreciate strongly. Everything I see (Ebay, Bricklink sales and prices, as well as the fact that they still have stock on Amazon) indicates it is sort of a dud so far. But then again it is a castle and is the only castle I know of that is Arabic in nature, other than the Taj Mahal
  • mressinmressin Lego City... erm LondonMember Posts: 843
    Technically, the Taj Mahal is not a castle, it is a tomb. Possibly the only one Lego ever made outside of a zombie theme? :)
  • wilburwilbur Member Posts: 49
    Good point! That doesnt keep me from wanting to live in it though!
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    @wilbur
    There is also set 7418 Scorpion Palace which kinda has that vibe.

    @mressin Sets 7621, 5958, and 7409 are all tombs. May be others.
    mressin
  • andystarandystar Member Posts: 275
    Looks like Amazon is just about out of #10219 Maersk Train. I bet it doesn't take long for the remaining stock to dry up after Amazon sells out.
  • allmybricksallmybricks Member Posts: 156
    I think I might have gotten the last (2) #10219 at Amazon... I bought when it said 2 left and got a confirmation. Now it says it's not available for me.
  • itsnotmeitsnotme Member Posts: 112
    ^ Yep, showing OOS at Amazon for me as well. Wonder if they might restock one last time given that TRU and Walmart just restocked within the last week or so after being OOS for a while. Currently $129.99 at TRU and $109.97 at Walmart.
  • wilburwilbur Member Posts: 49
    Thanks FatMatt! That set is pretty cool! Still thinking the Persia sets might not be worth it! The movie isn't timeless, and neither is gyllenhal or whatever his name is. Probably gonna pass...
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited December 2012
    ^Agreed, my personal opinion is if they are still selling for significantly under rrp, as most of them are, it will be a while before you could make a decent profit, if ever. Personally, I really like the Battle Of Alamut, as it is a pretty cool set, by far the best of the series, but for resale purposes, the series has proven to be a flop.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Who even remembers Prince of Persia? 10 years from now, people will still remember Harry Potter, LOTR, Star Wars... Prince of Persia what? Huh?

    That is the biggest problem I see.

    Any set that you can buy for under RRP a year or more after retirement, is almost always a terrible investment for resale.

    I bought one for personal use, the bricks are nice and it is interesting, but darn it, what a terrible investment. :)
  • flyingpigflyingpig Member Posts: 119
    #10219 Maersk Train rapidly disappearing at Walmart.com. Expect it to be gone by tomorrow. Starting to regret not getting more.

    What's next to go? MMV? DA? IS already is oos at Amazon.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,009
    #10219 is no longer at Walmart.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    flyingpig said:

    What's next to go? MMV? DA? IS already is oos at Amazon.

    http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Star-Imperial-Shuttle-10212/dp/B00883VGJK/

    Actually, IS is not out of stock at Amazon, for some reason Amazon created a whole new product page a few months ago.

    Notice there are no reviews on that page? They are on the old page, which never got restocked. Perhaps a new UPC was issued, or Amazon might be selling the European version of the set in the US, which does have a different UPC (EAN actually).
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Just checked out ebay US Never dreamt Dino defense HQ would start going up in price as quick as it has, although it has had a relatively short life i suppose.

    Do you think its worth picking up?, don't think its gained any value yet here in the UK.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Yes, I about fell down when I saw what happened to the price of Dino, boy did we all miss judge THAT one! :)

    I was going to give this to my son for Christmas, but if it ends up being a $200 set, I don't think I'll do that. Sheesh!!!
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622

    Yes, I about fell down when I saw what happened to the price of Dino, boy did we all miss judge THAT one! :)

    I was going to give this to my son for Christmas, but if it ends up being a $200 set, I don't think I'll do that. Sheesh!!!

    I was sure all of the Dino range was going to die a horrible death and be an extremely bad investment and end up not being able to give them away, looks like a rather disappointing theme if you ask me.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    ^ Lol to think that this was $80 a couple of months ago...
    How much is this driven by Christmas sales ?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    ^ Lol to think that this was $80 a couple of months ago...
    How much is this driven by Christmas sales ?

    A lot of it, I think... These should come down after Christmas, but given how well these are doing, it won't be another AC or PQ line, they should hold RRP so if you got them for 20% or more off RRP, you'll do ok.

    Next Christmas, they'll do even better, but does it make it worth holding them all year?

    Maybe...
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    That was one I was hoping to snag at 50% off for myself after Christmas... Oh well
    dragonhawkLegoFanTexas
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    pharmjod said:

    That was one I was hoping to snag at 50% off for myself after Christmas... Oh well

    I thought that would happen as well.

    LEGO has done a MUCH better job this year of not having that happen, other than SW Advent Calendar, they are allowing stock to run out without having to clearance stuff out, and the local Walmarts and Targets already are cleaned out mostly of the stuff I would expect to see on clearance.

    The mass 50% off of last year, I do not see being repeated again.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited December 2012
    Dino Defence HQ is still available at Below AU RRP on eBay AU ($100-$125), which is normal for current sets still widely available in large department stores.

    I saw a bunch over the weekend at a large department store. I think it will do better then some of the other flops mentioned above but as others have said I think you would want these a fair bit below RRP.

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