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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    edited December 2012

    Sold my last IF last week. I sold about 20 IF this past month. I'm flipped those 20 IF into 50 DA, thx to the TRU sale last week. I was able to get 50 DA for a little more than 6K, which was what I sold my 20 IF for....figured the 50 DA would be worth a lot more that 20 IF a year or 2 from now. I'm also in the middle of cashing out my Burrows to trade into DA. I'm up to 75 DA right now. Trying to reach 100 before they are all sold out. =) This set is the easiest no-brainer....I'm almost certain I will double my investment in this set by just next Christmas! Do you guys/gals think that was a good move?

    I don't think Diagon Alley is a 'huge returns' set so much as it is a 'safe bet.' If you double your money, great, but given the amount you have, you're going to need to hope LEGO Harry Potter sets are still in high demand next Christmas. If you wind up catering to a niche market with those sets next year, you're going to have a hard time shifting a hundred of them without offering a significantly better value than the next guy.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    ^100 DA's huh. Beautiful set, but that seems like overkill to me, 50+ any set does. I like to spread my collection. Two of most "good" sets, maybe more depending on how much I like it.

    Investing that heavily into one set is taking a big risk, even if you get a good deal from the jerks at TRU.
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,362
    I've sold all my DA's, most came from amazon.de for £77, most sold for apprx £185 on ebay, held onto just a couple.
  • BrickbaseBrickbase Member Posts: 100
    But couldn't be the aftermarket for the UCS SSD be the same as for the UCS ISD. That model also had a lot of negativity surrounding the model, flimsy because of the magnets, etc. Right now it's being sold for €1.000 on BL. It has already been some years since it EOL'ed, but it has a good ROI.
  • jasonord69ajasonord69a UKMember Posts: 448
    @legomaniac2011 I salute you for a good decision

    I think anyone who has invested in DA is onto a winner. In the UK it has already reached 1.5x mrsp within a couple if months if eol. Given that most resellers purchase for at least 30% off, it represents an almost 2x already. I sold a few a month ago and could have sold for £30 more it I'd waited a few weeks. My remaining sets will be sat in he loft until they hit £300. I'm thinking next Christmas at the latest.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    Brickbase said:

    But couldn't be the aftermarket for the UCS SSD be the same as for the UCS ISD........

    IMO I think the ISD is much better looking and also it is more iconic, add to that I assume that reselling has become more popular since the ISD went EOL.

    But saying that, for all these reasons not as many resellers may be sitting on them so who knows?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Potter is like Star Wars to many around the world. It's going dark right now, but certainly will be back.

    Even if resellers are sitting on a bunch of DAs, it will do fine in the aftermarket.

    Your supply has now become fixed and permanent. The demand will fluctuate but the price is likely only going to go up.

    I think 2 Xmas seasons removed from EOL date, will be the norm to achieve 2x regular retail price on most sets going forward. (Assuming you're selling these on eBay/Amazon as the usual 15% fee standpoint.)
  • BrickbaseBrickbase Member Posts: 100
    Basta said:

    Brickbase said:

    But couldn't be the aftermarket for the UCS SSD be the same as for the UCS ISD........

    IMO I think the ISD is much better looking and also it is more iconic, add to that I assume that reselling has become more popular since the ISD went EOL.

    But saying that, for all these reasons not as many resellers may be sitting on them so who knows?
    I do agree that the UCS ISD looks quite impressive and I haven't seen the UCS SSD. Though I am planning on buying it first thing in 2013, we can buy it here in the Netherlands for 25% off. But I'm still thinking about buying a second one. Any input on this, like yours is greatly appreciated.

  • legoprodslegoprods SpainMember Posts: 445
    ^^True! I fell in love with the ISD the first time I saw it, even I that have never been a fan of SW movies. It's giant, sleek and elegant. I just love elegant things.

    I think the aftermarket for the ISD will be better, but also remember that ISD's price point is too high for the parts you get. As LFT pointed out a while ago, ISD should have been 249... maybe 300$
  • BrickbaseBrickbase Member Posts: 100
    @legoprods

    It was actually the model that pulled me out of my dark ages. I can still remember I bought it for 400 Euro, today that means about $300. How much that would be in Dollars back then, I have no idea.

    When I look at the UCS SSD, a similar feeling gets a hold of me. I will have to wait another month, to know for sure this model will impress me as much as the UCS ISD did.
  • legoprodslegoprods SpainMember Posts: 445
    Ok, my post needs a small edit.

    When I was referring to ISD, I was actually talking about the SSD, and the other way around.

    The one I fell in love with, was the Super Star Destroyer, the actual one.

    @Brickbase

    I think you wont regret buying the Super Star Destroyer, IMO, it's bigger, and sexier than the Imperial Star Destroyer. And of course... it's The Executor! ;)
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    The SSD in my view is a shocking risk for resellers. It's huge and difficult to display, takes up space and capital, is quite bland, and looks awful value against the death star. I am going to stick my neck out and predict hardly any demand for this after eol. After all, if I am one of the fractional number of people who is in the target demographic, and yet I don't desire it, then I am asking myself who is?
  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265
    as a display piece the ssd and death star do not compare, the ds is to play with, the ssd is not
    imo
  • BrickbaseBrickbase Member Posts: 100
    @legoprods

    Thanks for clearing that up. I could see myself having the same opinion as you have. I love the total sight of the SSD, it just appeals to me. In relation to the price of this set I must agree, at 400 Euro's I would never buy this.

    @richo

    Don't you think back in the day of the ISD people thought the same? The ISD in length might be shorter, but it's more wide. So it even takes more space, space that I would gladly sacrifice to display an awesome model.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    Brickbase said:

    @legoprods

    Thanks for clearing that up. I could see myself having the same opinion as you have. I love the total sight of the SSD, it just appeals to me. In relation to the price of this set I must agree, at 400 Euro's I would never buy this.

    @richo

    Don't you think back in the day of the ISD people thought the same? The ISD in length might be shorter, but it's more wide. So it even takes more space, space that I would gladly sacrifice to display an awesome model.

    The ISD certainly looks alot more imposing than the SSD, what i dont't like about the SSD is the micro scale aspect Lego went for as the greebling just looks rather uninteresting especially on the sides between the hulls, looks like Lego got really lazy.

    Compare the greebling on this:
    image

    To this:
    image

    The only thing the SSD has got going for it is that it may just be a too big of a risk for resellers and therefore there won't be many being stockpiled like the firebrigade is.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    I believe the SSD will go up decently once retired, being that it is a $400 UCS set and has easily been able to be found for close to $300. That said, I doubt there will be crazy demand for it. I personally only have one at the moment, and may pick up another one or two. I think anyone buying many of them is going to be selling them for a while. I think 100 of any large set is a big risk as they could easily take at least two years to sell at the price you would like to receive, and who knows what could happen between now and then. But I guess reward is not without risk..........Enough of this off-topic talk, let's get back to tax talk and bubble wrap.
  • legoprodslegoprods SpainMember Posts: 445
    @111ins @Brickbase True, SSD is a work of art, the DS is more for play. I personally don't like the DS that much, but my kid does, and I guess minifig collectors appreciate it much more.

    The SSD is just... imposing.

    Also, what @Legofanscott is true, not many people will have a lot of these. I think the secondary market will be slow, but steady. Of course, I have not much experience, and it would be nice for the others to chime in...
  • BrickbaseBrickbase Member Posts: 100
    @Legofanscott I do agree with you about the micro details on the SSD and I can still remember building the side parts for the ISD. Hard to forget. Both models look equally impressive to me and I would love to see them side by side in my display area next year.

    As for reselling, I agree with most people. It is worth buying a few, or even 1(depends on your wallet), for the sole purpose of reselling. I think there will always be a market for these huge models, which are quite impressive to look at. I can still hit myself for not buying the UCS DS II, right now I can't afford it anymore.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    The SSD could really go either way, I think. On the one hand, no one was buying the UCS ISD or Falcon, either... and those sets saw huge returns. On the other hand, with the exception of the rear, the SSD is just a really poor model that I can't imagine the casual LEGO fan finding highly desirable. It's the second-worst OT UCS model, and I just imagine post-EOL it's going to mostly sell to UCS completionists who may have missed it for whatever reason.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    edited December 2012
    y2josh said:

    The SSD could really go either way, I think. On the one hand, no one was buying the UCS ISD or Falcon, either... and those sets saw huge returns. On the other hand, with the exception of the rear, the SSD is just a really poor model that I can't imagine the casual LEGO fan finding highly desirable. It's the second-worst OT UCS model, and I just imagine post-EOL it's going to mostly sell to UCS completionists who may have missed it for whatever reason.

    Having just watched ROTJ, i must admit 10221 doesnt look as inaccurate as i thought it looked, im sure Lego used that film as reference for the model.

    I can sort of understand why they made it at the micro scale but i think that is part of the problem why it doesnt look as impressive as previous big ucs sets, im sure it wouldnt of hurt to bump up the detail.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ The problem is not really anything LEGO can do anything about...

    The actual SSD model is very long, very thin, and requires a lot of detail to actually appear "real".

    The actual shooting model is several times bigger than the LEGO model, and of course isn't limited by the size of LEGO studs. From talking to the staff at the local LEGO store, they tell me the single biggest reason people pass on the SSD is the size.

    Everyone says, "Oh, that is cool... wait, it is *how* long? Where would I put it?"

    If you build it, only to take it apart and put it back in the box, what's the point.

    To actually make it look right, it needs to be 10-12ft (2.5-3M) long. But then no one would buy it and it would cost $1,000.

    :)

    It really is just a lousy model to try and make out of LEGO as a commercially sellable set.
  • allmybricksallmybricks Member Posts: 156
    Amazon is price matching Walmart on several sets right now - Fire Brigade is $130, Shuttle Expedition is $85, Maresk Train in $110...
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    edited December 2012
    ^^True enough, but at $400 it's already out of a lot of people's price range, so why not just give me this:

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,223
    Regarding SSD: There will always be a secondary market for such a set... it may not be a very big market, but I'm sure there will be demand because if many people do not buy it, but still want it then it will be going up in price, as long as there is some market.
    I think you can take what that market will be from these comments, most do not see the point however there are those that really like it, and it will have to do for now especially for those that cannot afford a ISD, but unless it comes with special figures (I believe it does not) I think demand will be low but probably will be there.. that is of course also banking on someone not already having 20-30 of them lying around somewhere to sell later.
    OR LEGO deciding to re-release the ISD (which I'm guessing will not occur).
    This may be one of the few times where the supply is going to really outstrip demand.

    I just cannot see spending money on it.... Well MAYBE if they put it at 50% off someplace...
    legoprods
  • mressinmressin Lego City... erm LondonMember Posts: 843

    Everyone says, "Oh, that is cool... wait, it is *how* long? Where would I put it?"

    If you build it, only to take it apart and put it back in the box, what's the point.

    ... and it can't be re-built sensibly either because it's mostly plates and greebles. My opinion.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002

    ...but unless it comes with special figures (I believe it does not)...

    It comes with Admiral Piett whose torso is, I believe, still exclusive to that set. Dengar is also different from the version in 6209, though I believe this version is actually worse. And IG-88 is slightly different, too. Certainly not worth the set just to pick up those figures, however.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,258
    prevere said:

    A good move? You're definitely "pot committed" to DA.

    This next wave of retirements will be interesting, because it definitely represents a challenge if the market can handle the uptick in resellers stocking up on said sets for aftermarket profit and glory.

    Wholeheartedly agree, though anyone with a few sets put away finds all waves of retirement interesting! I had thought DS and FB were going to be next year's litmus tests, but DA and IS (and to some extent the anomalously long lived MMV) may serve just as well.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    prevere said:

    This next wave of retirements will be interesting, because it definitely represents a challenge if the market can handle the uptick in resellers stocking up on said sets for aftermarket profit and glory.

    Do you have actual evidence verifying this so called "uptick" in resellers? Every year I hear unsubstantiated stories about impending bubbles due to a large growth in resellers yet every year the market continues to outperform. I never see new faces at my local Lego store joining the reselling ranks so where are all these "new" resellers that are going to crash the market?
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited December 2012
    I'm not saying I necessarily agree with prevere, but I don't disagree. Those "faces" can be seen in this very thread every so often as a newcomer asks info as to learning the ropes on getting their hands dirty. We have seen a lot of that over the last year in here. How many of them are actually diving in, who knows. I do believe that the number of resellers is always increasing, but how that will actually affect the market, I don't know. It's not really small-timers that would drastically affect it, but if there were to be a substantial increase in the number large resellers, I could see it becoming very competitive.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    edited December 2012

    prevere said:

    This next wave of retirements will be interesting, because it definitely represents a challenge if the market can handle the uptick in resellers stocking up on said sets for aftermarket profit and glory.

    Do you have actual evidence verifying this so called "uptick" in resellers? Every year I hear unsubstantiated stories about impending bubbles due to a large growth in resellers yet every year the market continues to outperform. I never see new faces at my local Lego store joining the reselling ranks so where are all these "new" resellers that are going to crash the market?
    Youve also got to remember that there are new AFOLs all the time, even if more people are reselling there is still only so many sets that can be had once retirement comes.

    Then there is Lego's stock, do resellers really make a difference as to how many sets there will be in circulation after retirement comes?, if resellers don't buy it then Lego's general customers will, yes there will be plenty of sealed sets but im sure resellers won't make sets more common a few years down the line after EOL than a set that wasnt bought by resellers.

    Would there be far more 10179's or 10030's on ebay today had there been more resellers back then even though Lego made a set amount of them?

    Its really a case of predicting how desirable a set will be in the future
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    FatMatt said:

    I'm not saying I necessarily agree with prevere, but I don't disagree. Those "faces" can be seen in this very thread every so often as a newcomer asks info as to learning the ropes on getting their hands dirty. We have seen a lot of that over the last year in here. How many of them are actually diving in, who knows. I do believe that the number of resellers is always increasing, but how that will actually affect the market, I don't know. It's not really small-timers that would drastically affect it, but if there were to be a substantial increase in the number large resellers, I could see it becoming very competitive.

    Another thought...

    How many resellers are leaving the field? Every month I buy out the inventory from someone who thought they wanted to do it, only to discover that once it grew beyond 10-20 sets, it became another job.

    Also, what affects the market more...

    1 Large Reseller
    100 Small Resellers

    assuming the volume of sets is the same?

    Some resellers like ToyBerg have millions of dollars of inventory. A single one of that makes a much larger impact I think than a bunch of hobby sellers.

    Or perhaps not...
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited December 2012
    ^I would agree that a large reseller has a greater affect than the same amount of quantity dispersed among multiple small sellers as they(large) would have the greater potential to hold prices at bay so to speak.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    legofanscott said:
    Would there be far more 10179's or 10030's on ebay today had there been more resellers back then even though Lego made a set amount of them?
    Did Lego make a predetermined amount of those sets? I believe that production, with few exceptions, is based on producing until they decide it is enough, not a predetermined number.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    FatMatt said:

    legofanscott said:

    Would there be far more 10179's or 10030's on ebay today had there been more resellers back then even though Lego made a set amount of them?
    Did Lego make a predetermined amount of those sets? I believe that production, with few exceptions, is based on producing until they decide it is enough, not a predetermined number.

    But 10030 really baffles me, if hardly anyone was buying that set then why was it out for so long? Lego's EOL strategies really hurt my head :/
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    The longer I do this and the larger my inventory grows the more doubts I have about new people getting into it. Most people simply just don't have the space to acquire anything significant. And as far as I can tell, most of these same people have no business acumen or experience either.

    It's one thing to buy some extra sets and put them away in a closet, but it's quite another to manage the space of a six figure inventory and the books. And then there's understanding when to sell, what to sell, how, where etc.
  • thehockeyboythehockeyboy Member Posts: 97
    ^ but when you get 100 people putting stuff in their closets, the effect is greater than 5 people running a large business. When 100 different sellers hit the market, there is more likely to be a price war, especially if those sellers have much more limited space. Those smaller sellers will have a dramatic impact on the price... You may argue that eventually the price will increase as those small sellers sell inventory, but you're losing money every month you don't sell an item (storage cost, money tied up, risk of damage, etc).

    Also for the Modulars/star wars/etc, How many new AFOLs are being "made"? I feel like the people who are more apt to spend the $400+ on a secondary market have already been made into collectors, and so purchase the sets they want before they are EOLd.

  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    Something else to consider is that there's also a large portion of 'new' resellers who believe reselling LEGO is a surefire method of getting rich quick. I have no evidence to support this theory, but I have to believe that only a small minority of new resellers stick with it enough to make any kind of significant impact.

    That's not to say that I don't think the market will be depressed in some cases. I think the UCS Falcon, specifically, has pretty much guaranteed a lower ceiling on any retiring UCS set. Additionally, I do think the day of the 'quick return' may be behind us due to new resellers getting discouraged and trying to burn off their stock quickly, but I don't see any evidence of long-term investments not panning out, with the obvious caveat of the occasional dud set (8038 comes right to mind).
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Not trying to say there is zero impact from small sellers, just not as big as it may seem from just surfing these boards. Sometimes we get caught up in our own little world here :P
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    What theme seems to be selling the best and worst right now, with a little more than 2 weeks until Christmas? I mean, what theme(s) is/are TRU, Amazon, and WM selling out of? Which theme(s) are you seeing quite a bit of stock of?

    From my perspective, NinjaGo and Friends are gone from the shelves. LOTR is well stocked. Hobbit is well stocked too, but it's just out so it will take time for inventories to shrink. Doesn't look good for LOTR.
  • thehockeyboythehockeyboy Member Posts: 97
    I can understand that gm, surfing this board may make it seem like lots of people know what they're doing, at least until you realize that it's just 15 or so people who do most the posting!

    I think it's safe to say that most non-AFOLs who resell Legos (myself being one of them until a few years ago when I decided to delve more into details of the lego world) go after the sale items only -- so the big ROI items (and safer investments) are those sets which don't get clearanced at nationwide chains such as target. I can remember coming across a hundred tie crawlers 7664 for 75% off at local targets and buying all that I could... Those didn't get me very far! And I'm absolutely not saying that those clearances aren't profitable, but the sets that get sold out before the clearance hits can be more rare and more valuable based on their playability! "If desirable while available, they will be desirable when unavailable."

    And I consider Legos as a diversification in my investments as well as resale stock. There are plenty of items I can go out and purchase today that will give me a 100%+ ROI within a few months... I just have come to enjoy finding those lego gems that will do well (like the 50+ Dino HQs I bought prior to the recent resale price jump!!)
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Does Walmart even carry Friends anymore? I haven't seen any sets in stores for it seems months.
  • thehockeyboythehockeyboy Member Posts: 97
    Many stores I have seen (mainly walmart and target) keep their friends Legos in the girl toy isles, apart from the other Legos. I almost feel as though they are "hidden" away from resellers, unlike what you see at TRU where all Legos are clumped together.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,258
    It is my hope that the number of new AFOL/investors is coeval with both the number of resellers dropping out and the number of new AFOLs every year. But I would rather see 100 hobbyists benefit from rearranging their closet space than another new company warehousing thousands of sets. It's a qualitative consideration.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    cloaked7 said:

    What theme seems to be selling the best and worst right now, with a little more than 2 weeks until Christmas? I mean, what theme(s) is/are TRU, Amazon, and WM selling out of? Which theme(s) are you seeing quite a bit of stock of?

    From my perspective, NinjaGo and Friends are gone from the shelves. LOTR is well stocked. Hobbit is well stocked too, but it's just out so it will take time for inventories to shrink. Doesn't look good for LOTR.

    LotR is pretty well-stocked everywhere around me, but that's no real surprise. At least in terms of appearances, LotR hasn't seemed to be a very profitable venture for TLG. It really doesn't help that the three 'large' sets are mediocre at best and abysmal at worst (I'm looking at you, Mines of Moria). I'll be interested to see if the Hobbit film has any impact on what appears to be severely lagging sales, but Middle Earth is a very different beast than Star Wars, and there's not really a lot of cross-film appeal for an audience that may only wind up being familiar with what they see in An Unexpected Journey.

    I know I've said it before, but from an investment standpoint, I just feel like the returns on the LotR sets are going to be tied directly to the minifigs. In that regard, Mines of Moria may be the sleeper set in the first wave, especially if Boromir and the Cave Troll don't turn up elsewhere.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    I keep wanting to buy those Weathertop's at near 30% but when I see all the inventory in the stores I gotta think they will be clearanced shortly. Then again, 50% clearance may be a rarity in my parts. In any case, it will be interesting to see if The Hobbit movie has any effect on sales. Either way, I feel like some of the LotR sets will do well in the aftermarket with AFOL's.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ LOTR for 30% off isn't a bad deal...

    Of course, it is also on the set that is already overpriced. :) If it was Helm's Deep for 30% off, it would be a no-brainer in my humble opinion.

    Helm's Deep has the benefit of being a nice castle in its own right. One thing that I've started doing, and this isn't scientific, is just picking up each box to see "does this feel like a good value" based on the weight of the box. Not in pounds, but in perception (size of the box vs. heft of the box).

    Pickup some of the sets sometime... Helm's Deep feels much heavier than MMV does, for a similar price. Everyone always raves about what a "bargin" MMV is, but when I built it I was very underwhelmed.

    Of course, I haven't built Helm's Deep yet, so what the heck do I know, but the box sure does feel heavy.
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,270
    ^ It's only heavy because it probably has 3 50 page manuals to build it one piece per page.
    y2joshLegoFanTexas
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    Weathertop is a pretty neat set at 30% off but yeah I think you'll be able to find it on clearance within a month. I'm actually holding off on purchasing any Hobbit sets. To be honest the film doesn't look that great. Early reviews are also implying that. I'm thinking that it may be a box office flop. At least in regards to its budget and expectations. That means the Lego sets will be more abundant and heavily discounted in a few months.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    Something else to consider... the entire first wave of LotR has been available at fairly heavy discounts from the get-go, so even if you wind up selling them at 50% over RRP, you're probably still looking at a healthy return. I'd also be pretty shocked if your stores with less room for LEGO don't start clearancing these out after Christmas (though some would argue many places have been trying to clear them out since July). Picked up at a high enough discount, and assuming the line continues until The Hobbit films are done, I think many of sets in the first wave could do well enough... especially since the line won't last long enough (presumably) for them to really ever redo a set.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    Love Helms Deep, but I'm a sucker for any castle. And i like the fact that you can add an infinite amount of Urak Hai sets to make it a little bigger. I have a huge one set up right now. Really dreading taking down 50-60 sets I have on display and selling them before I move. I'll keep the figs, but just can't take all the sets.
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