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Investing that heavily into one set is taking a big risk, even if you get a good deal from the jerks at TRU.
I think anyone who has invested in DA is onto a winner. In the UK it has already reached 1.5x mrsp within a couple if months if eol. Given that most resellers purchase for at least 30% off, it represents an almost 2x already. I sold a few a month ago and could have sold for £30 more it I'd waited a few weeks. My remaining sets will be sat in he loft until they hit £300. I'm thinking next Christmas at the latest.
But saying that, for all these reasons not as many resellers may be sitting on them so who knows?
Even if resellers are sitting on a bunch of DAs, it will do fine in the aftermarket.
Your supply has now become fixed and permanent. The demand will fluctuate but the price is likely only going to go up.
I think 2 Xmas seasons removed from EOL date, will be the norm to achieve 2x regular retail price on most sets going forward. (Assuming you're selling these on eBay/Amazon as the usual 15% fee standpoint.)
I think the aftermarket for the ISD will be better, but also remember that ISD's price point is too high for the parts you get. As LFT pointed out a while ago, ISD should have been 249... maybe 300$
It was actually the model that pulled me out of my dark ages. I can still remember I bought it for 400 Euro, today that means about $300. How much that would be in Dollars back then, I have no idea.
When I look at the UCS SSD, a similar feeling gets a hold of me. I will have to wait another month, to know for sure this model will impress me as much as the UCS ISD did.
When I was referring to ISD, I was actually talking about the SSD, and the other way around.
The one I fell in love with, was the Super Star Destroyer, the actual one.
I think you wont regret buying the Super Star Destroyer, IMO, it's bigger, and sexier than the Imperial Star Destroyer. And of course... it's The Executor! ;)
Thanks for clearing that up. I could see myself having the same opinion as you have. I love the total sight of the SSD, it just appeals to me. In relation to the price of this set I must agree, at 400 Euro's I would never buy this.
Don't you think back in the day of the ISD people thought the same? The ISD in length might be shorter, but it's more wide. So it even takes more space, space that I would gladly sacrifice to display an awesome model.
Compare the greebling on this:
The only thing the SSD has got going for it is that it may just be a too big of a risk for resellers and therefore there won't be many being stockpiled like the firebrigade is.
The SSD is just... imposing.
Also, what @Legofanscott is true, not many people will have a lot of these. I think the secondary market will be slow, but steady. Of course, I have not much experience, and it would be nice for the others to chime in...
As for reselling, I agree with most people. It is worth buying a few, or even 1(depends on your wallet), for the sole purpose of reselling. I think there will always be a market for these huge models, which are quite impressive to look at. I can still hit myself for not buying the UCS DS II, right now I can't afford it anymore.
I can sort of understand why they made it at the micro scale but i think that is part of the problem why it doesnt look as impressive as previous big ucs sets, im sure it wouldnt of hurt to bump up the detail.
The actual SSD model is very long, very thin, and requires a lot of detail to actually appear "real".
The actual shooting model is several times bigger than the LEGO model, and of course isn't limited by the size of LEGO studs. From talking to the staff at the local LEGO store, they tell me the single biggest reason people pass on the SSD is the size.
Everyone says, "Oh, that is cool... wait, it is *how* long? Where would I put it?"
If you build it, only to take it apart and put it back in the box, what's the point.
To actually make it look right, it needs to be 10-12ft (2.5-3M) long. But then no one would buy it and it would cost $1,000.
It really is just a lousy model to try and make out of LEGO as a commercially sellable set.
I think you can take what that market will be from these comments, most do not see the point however there are those that really like it, and it will have to do for now especially for those that cannot afford a ISD, but unless it comes with special figures (I believe it does not) I think demand will be low but probably will be there.. that is of course also banking on someone not already having 20-30 of them lying around somewhere to sell later.
OR LEGO deciding to re-release the ISD (which I'm guessing will not occur).
This may be one of the few times where the supply is going to really outstrip demand.
I just cannot see spending money on it.... Well MAYBE if they put it at 50% off someplace...
Then there is Lego's stock, do resellers really make a difference as to how many sets there will be in circulation after retirement comes?, if resellers don't buy it then Lego's general customers will, yes there will be plenty of sealed sets but im sure resellers won't make sets more common a few years down the line after EOL than a set that wasnt bought by resellers.
Would there be far more 10179's or 10030's on ebay today had there been more resellers back then even though Lego made a set amount of them?
Its really a case of predicting how desirable a set will be in the future
How many resellers are leaving the field? Every month I buy out the inventory from someone who thought they wanted to do it, only to discover that once it grew beyond 10-20 sets, it became another job.
Also, what affects the market more...
1 Large Reseller
100 Small Resellers
assuming the volume of sets is the same?
Some resellers like ToyBerg have millions of dollars of inventory. A single one of that makes a much larger impact I think than a bunch of hobby sellers.
Or perhaps not...
But 10030 really baffles me, if hardly anyone was buying that set then why was it out for so long? Lego's EOL strategies really hurt my head :/
It's one thing to buy some extra sets and put them away in a closet, but it's quite another to manage the space of a six figure inventory and the books. And then there's understanding when to sell, what to sell, how, where etc.
Also for the Modulars/star wars/etc, How many new AFOLs are being "made"? I feel like the people who are more apt to spend the $400+ on a secondary market have already been made into collectors, and so purchase the sets they want before they are EOLd.
That's not to say that I don't think the market will be depressed in some cases. I think the UCS Falcon, specifically, has pretty much guaranteed a lower ceiling on any retiring UCS set. Additionally, I do think the day of the 'quick return' may be behind us due to new resellers getting discouraged and trying to burn off their stock quickly, but I don't see any evidence of long-term investments not panning out, with the obvious caveat of the occasional dud set (8038 comes right to mind).
From my perspective, NinjaGo and Friends are gone from the shelves. LOTR is well stocked. Hobbit is well stocked too, but it's just out so it will take time for inventories to shrink. Doesn't look good for LOTR.
I think it's safe to say that most non-AFOLs who resell Legos (myself being one of them until a few years ago when I decided to delve more into details of the lego world) go after the sale items only -- so the big ROI items (and safer investments) are those sets which don't get clearanced at nationwide chains such as target. I can remember coming across a hundred tie crawlers 7664 for 75% off at local targets and buying all that I could... Those didn't get me very far! And I'm absolutely not saying that those clearances aren't profitable, but the sets that get sold out before the clearance hits can be more rare and more valuable based on their playability! "If desirable while available, they will be desirable when unavailable."
And I consider Legos as a diversification in my investments as well as resale stock. There are plenty of items I can go out and purchase today that will give me a 100%+ ROI within a few months... I just have come to enjoy finding those lego gems that will do well (like the 50+ Dino HQs I bought prior to the recent resale price jump!!)
I know I've said it before, but from an investment standpoint, I just feel like the returns on the LotR sets are going to be tied directly to the minifigs. In that regard, Mines of Moria may be the sleeper set in the first wave, especially if Boromir and the Cave Troll don't turn up elsewhere.
Of course, it is also on the set that is already overpriced. :) If it was Helm's Deep for 30% off, it would be a no-brainer in my humble opinion.
Helm's Deep has the benefit of being a nice castle in its own right. One thing that I've started doing, and this isn't scientific, is just picking up each box to see "does this feel like a good value" based on the weight of the box. Not in pounds, but in perception (size of the box vs. heft of the box).
Pickup some of the sets sometime... Helm's Deep feels much heavier than MMV does, for a similar price. Everyone always raves about what a "bargin" MMV is, but when I built it I was very underwhelmed.
Of course, I haven't built Helm's Deep yet, so what the heck do I know, but the box sure does feel heavy.