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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    New subject, for #10216, Winter Bakery, buy now or wait until more substantial discounts after Christmas ? Did Toy Shop get heavily discounted after Christmas 2011 ?
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ Toy shop was selling for 25% off after Christmas 2011 until supplies were gone, which was pretty quick.
  • SiESiE Member Posts: 238
    toy shops were down to £26.99 at one point alongside the £24.79 burrows. God they were a bargain. I managed to get 6 burrows and a couple of toy shops.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,399
    Yes, I would wait. Unless you don't have one already.
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,412
    ^ I found a police station last year for 50% off but have been looking for another one ever since. I don't like the set by itself but it has some potential if you double up.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    dougts said:

    ^ Toy shop was selling for 25% off after Christmas 2011 until supplies were gone, which was pretty quick.

    Toy shop was on sale prior to Christmas and continued until supplies were gone.
  • lulwutlulwut Member Posts: 416
    The Mine 4204 is this season's set for kids. Sold out everywhere and going for more than retail on secondary market.
  • AmberylAmberyl Member Posts: 193
    Ironic, considering the giant Wal-Mart discount on the Mine, recently.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Whoah! That's incredible. If you check completed listings, you will see its just today that The Mine has really appreciated. All completed auctions are at least 20% under RRP. The auctions nearing close are over a hundred.

    Guess I don't feel so silly about driving all around Socal picking them up last month :P After buying them from Target and Walmart, Amazon heavily discounted the set and I thought I'd have to wait till after Christmas.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    I feel like most of the HP sets that JUST went out are already doing a lot better than I initially thought they would.
  • legoprodslegoprods SpainMember Posts: 440
    DS for 308€@amazon.es

    Also a question: is that a good deal?

    And does anyone know I I can use ebates with other amazons?

    -G
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    Hi all, wondering what people's opinions are on tower bridge. I think it's a great set that will do well once eol, but any idea when that will be?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,883
    TB will take awhile to even double. But if you don't mind keeping it for 4-5 years, it could triple.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Yes, after everyone saw what happened to Taj Mahal, I have a hard time seeing Tower Bridge repeat that.

    Of course, I could be wrong, I don't own a single one yet. :)
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    lulwut said:

    The Mine 4204 is this season's set for kids. Sold out everywhere and going for more than retail on secondary market.

    I'm shocked. I put my extra copy up for a slight discount late last night ($90) since the box had a pressure crease running down the front. It sold by the time I woke up. I probably could have listed higher, but I'm perfectly happy getting back double what I paid for it.

    I'm tempted to put up the big and little Hogwarts sets I picked up on clearance last spring. Both are only going for slightly above RRP, but it's more than double what I paid for them.

  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    Tower Bridge is a beautiful set and is a great value at it's current price for around 4300 pieces (especially with some of the recent sales where it has been lower than $200). Due to the price ($240 is still a lot of money for a set) I don't think a lot of people are "stocking up" on them like they are with modulars.

    I think this could eventually reach the $750 - $900 price range but it will be a slow, gradual increase (5 year span). I say that because it has general appeal and isn't focused on a specific theme like Star Wars (you either like the movies or you don't).
  • pstrickler27pstrickler27 Member Posts: 71
    @Renny - agree completly on TB - on the subject of Modulars - is anyone else concerned that FB is going to tank? - anyone think GE will reach EOL this Dec?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    None of the modulars are going away. I don't think GE will retire until we get another corner building. Might be next year when Palace Cinema comes out if that is a corner.
  • pcironepcirone Long Island, NYMember Posts: 346
    FB tank? Impossible. I hereby pledge to buy every single copy that anyone wants to sell me for what they paid, 6 months after EOL.
  • pstrickler27pstrickler27 Member Posts: 71
    @LegoFanTexas - what is Palace Cinema? this is the first I'm hearing of this and I follow brick sites pretty regularly - also - you don't think FB is reaching EOL this holiday season? or just GE? - my argument for GE reaching EOL is that it came out March 2010, which would make it 2.5 years old now.. the same lifespan of all the previous Modulars (aside from FB which I see as an exception because it came out at an odd time) - anyway - I'm starting my GE stockpile now just in case
  • forumreaderforumreader Member Posts: 97
    Palace Cinema is the basically-confirmed next modular. Supposedly has a theater and a diner. I'm not sure if any info has come out on whether or not it's a corner building, though.
  • pstrickler27pstrickler27 Member Posts: 71
    @pcirone - so you're not concerned in the slightest - I think a lot of people have caught wind of the modulars (even non-AFOL) - someone I know who collects toys has picked up 30 FB's and this is the first time he has invested in Lego so heavily - I think the aftermarket is going to be saturated and it will be at least 2 years before you see a descent return (at least 30%)
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,097
    iccarus said:

    I'm shocked. I put my extra copy up for a slight discount late last night ($90) since the box had a pressure crease running down the front. It sold by the time I woke up. I probably could have listed higher, but I'm perfectly happy getting back double what I paid for it.

    I told my wife I was going to list it when it hit $150 on ebay. One sold for $140 last night. Inventory appears to be scarce all around. Part of me wants to keep it, but I'd rather have the extra money.

  • thorniethornie Member Posts: 245
    ^ I agree. I'm selling my copies which I am essentially flipping for a Millenium Falcon and a Maersk Train.
  • allmybricksallmybricks Member Posts: 156
    I listed a 4204 this morning for $115 BIN + shipping and it sold in an hour. More than happy with the return. I have another, but I kind of want to keep that one. Maybe I can buy it again later after the holiday inflation :-)
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,088
    I imagine the market for the mine will collapse shortly after Christmas. Next year kids will be after whatever is new and big that year. I would sell Mine sets now if I was looking to maximize profit
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,097
    I'd keep it but my son hasn't shown much interest in the theme. Too bad because it's non-violent comparatively.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    @LegoFanTexas - what is Palace Cinema? this is the first I'm hearing of this and I follow brick sites pretty regularly - also - you don't think FB is reaching EOL this holiday season? or just GE?

    I know FB isn't EOLing this year, neither is DS, GE, etc. MMV, WB, & MT are the only 10xxx sets that I can confirm 100% are EOL this year. I am not even sure DA is going this year, which surprises me. VWB might or might not go, but I think both it and TB have another year left in them. J as well should stay for another year. IS might be EOLing, I think TLG is keeping its options open on that one. By all rights it should go, but who knows...

    Palace Cinema is the next modular, due out Spring 2013, we don't have details on it yet besides the name, set number, and what is roughly in it. Don't know if it is a corner or not.

    If it is a corner, we may see GE and FB both EOL next Sept-Dec timeframe (or perhaps summer, you never know)


    Of course, I could be wrong... I was... once... I think in 1995. ;)
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,205
    pcirone said:

    FB tank? Impossible. I hereby pledge to buy every single copy that anyone wants to sell me for what they paid, 6 months after EOL.

    What, with no conditions attached?

    Opened and built, damaged box, missing pieces, .... all OK?
    LegoFanTexas
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    DA is going as it is already deleted from the overseas [email protected] sites. I'd wager IS is done as well.

  • Cam_n_StuCam_n_Stu UKMember Posts: 368
    @LegoFanTexas I'd suggest what has disappeared or is Sold Out on the GB (UK) LEGO.com site is a pretty good guide to what is EOL:

    - Diagon Alley page has been deleted
    - Maersk Train page has been deleted
    - Imperial Shuttle is Sold Out with no date for future availability
    - Medieval Market Village is Sold Out with no date for future availability



  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    I'd be shocked if IS sticks around. They stopped resupplying stores back in May or June, just like MMV. DA stopped shipping to stores not much later. Could they all of a sudden ramp up production again once the holiday production backlog gets resolved on popular sets (HH, SC, etc)? Sure. But seems unlikely to me.

    That said, I do think LEGO has shifted their EOL model on the 10xxx stuff. No longer are they going to discount and try to dump the remaining supply at any particular date or season. They will just stop production quietly and allow supplies to slowly dwindle under the radar until they are gone. We saw that already this year with MMV, IS, DA, MT, and the space shuttle. Done this way, sets won't hit EOL as fast as previous, but LEGO won't be dumping them at 25% or more off either. With more stores, more online major retailers selling exclusives, and [email protected] gaining market share, having the shelf space for the SKU isn't necessary anymore. Don't have anywhere to display these items in store? No problem - ship more to Amazon, TRU, Target, Wal-Mart or just sell them online only until supplies finally dry up. This is essentially what they have done the past 6 months with all those above-mentioned items as well as the seasonal winter bakery.

    If I had to bet, this is exactly what will happen with DS, TB, VWB, FB and/or GE in 2013. The first sign will be when stores stop getting resupplied, but the online sellers and [email protected] will continue to have the stock for months on end
    BrickDancerCam_n_Stu
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    I told my wife I was going to list it when it hit $150 on ebay. One sold for $140 last night. Inventory appears to be scarce all around. Part of me wants to keep it, but I'd rather have the extra money.
    I gave someone a good deal then. Oh well, anything more than what I paid for it is enough for me. I basically just covered the cost of the two copies I managed to pick up.

    4842 already seems to be pushing the $160-180 range and 4867 is at $60+. That might be enough of an increase for me, since I imagine they will slip back down again after Christmas.

    Fire Temple is also moving at $160+

  • pcironepcirone Long Island, NYMember Posts: 346
    Yes in an unopened good condition box.
    CCC said:

    pcirone said:

    FB tank? Impossible. I hereby pledge to buy every single copy that anyone wants to sell me for what they paid, 6 months after EOL.

    What, with no conditions attached?

    Opened and built, damaged box, missing pieces, .... all OK?
  • Nadana86Nadana86 Member Posts: 65
    dougts said:

    I'd be shocked if IS sticks around. They stopped resupplying stores back in May or June, just like MMV.

    German stores got an IS delivery last week. I HOPE that this was just left over stock found in a corner somewhere.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    I can confirm that Diagon Alley has been completely removed from the Australian [email protected] site for some time now, at least 3 weeks, I would assume this is a good indication that it is not coming back?

    As I didn't have one, I just picked up 2 Diagon Alley's this morning, as TRU added it to the BOGO50% deal, so I got them for $138.90AUD each shipped, which I think is an great price given that the only places that seem to have them left are selling at pretty much US retail. Although if I want to buy it locally I could have got it from Target for $279 :o
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    Nadana86 said:

    dougts said:

    I'd be shocked if IS sticks around. They stopped resupplying stores back in May or June, just like MMV.

    German stores got an IS delivery last week. I HOPE that this was just left over stock found in a corner somewhere.
    sorry, was talking about the US stores. clearly supply patterns and warehousing are independent on both sides of the Atlantic
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    edited November 2012

    I listed a 4204 this morning for $115 BIN + shipping and it sold in an hour. More than happy with the return. I have another, but I kind of want to keep that one. Maybe I can buy it again later after the holiday inflation :-)

    Wow, you're not kidding about the quick turnaround. Listed my only copy and sold it within 38 min. Would have never guessed that was going to be a set to shoot up in price so fast for the holidays...of course, I guess I'm more comparing it to the $30 sale price vs the MSRP so any jump was going to be significant.
  • WindfieldWindfield USAMember Posts: 33
    What do you guys think on Architecture? They been available for a long time now. Do you guys think they would go up in value once EOLd? I don't personally like it since their color is so dull...
  • Nadana86Nadana86 Member Posts: 65
    dougts said:



    sorry, was talking about the US stores. clearly supply patterns and warehousing are independent on both sides of the Atlantic

    I'm sure you're right. However once production is over it's over and I think it doesn't matter where you are. IS has been sold out at [email protected] here for quite a while so I think this must have been their last delivery.

    Looking across the ocean is a good indicator for a lot of things. As I said before, Minecraft is in stock here again so it won't take long until it's available everywhere.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Windfield said:

    What do you guys think on Architecture? They been available for a long time now. Do you guys think they would go up in value once EOLd? I don't personally like it since their color is so dull...

    Niche market, long term gains at a slow rate. The new Temple I think is most impressive. White House will do well, but not necessarily an explosive return. Small boxes are nice, so putting a few back won't crowd your shelves.

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,883
    edited November 2012
    Much like 4204, it looks like JP 9516 is in the high demand in short supply Xmas window. Starting to go for $150 on eBay - mostly out at WM and [email protected]
  • HardradaHardrada Member Posts: 439
    The Minecraft set is now available in the European [email protected] What do you think how long till it restocks in the US? I'm thinking about listing a few for 90-100 USD on ebay.com, would that make sense at this point of time? Mind you, I'm in Europe, so it takes about 8-15 days for delivery after purchase if someone from the US buys. (Or from anywhere else outside Europe.)

    Maybe with a no returns accepted policy, or would I still likely get buyers wanting to return it? I have no experience selling on ebay, been using BL and local sites only so far.
  • Nadana86Nadana86 Member Posts: 65
    On ebay in Germany it's still selling for 60€. If you have stock left, just be quick!
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    prevere said:

    Much like 4204, it looks like JP 9516 is in the high demand in short supply Xmas window. Starting to go for $150 on eBay - mostly out at WM and [email protected]

    Looks like RRP at most to me on Ebay. "One" set selling for $150 doesn't mean anything -- probably a fluke or non-paying bidder. Its been in stock at most every B&M store I've been to. It would have to go higher just to cover fees and a lot higher to make anything. Still, interesting to watch what gets shorted :P

    every year its something . . .
  • kdzgonkdzgon Member Posts: 12
    I don't know much about what sets have been discontinued, etc (esp compared to those on this thread!), but I was surprised during my recent visit to a Lego store. After being told (~3 weeks ago) DA would not be returning, there was a very large stack of them at the Orlando store this past Sunday. They also had the Maersk train and lots of the shuttle and FB. Maybe it's a "last hurrah" shipment (sent there due to its location, maybe?), though I was shocked to see so many DA sets. I'm not a big HP fan, but nevertheless that set is one of my most favorite sets. I have resisted buying the FB as honestly, considering the price it is just "meh".

    154 pp is too many to go through - am I understanding correctly that the tower bridge is being discontinued?
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    kdzgon said:

    154 pp is too many to go through - am I understanding correctly that the tower bridge is being discontinued?

    I think the best knowledge regarding TB is "we don't know".
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    @kdzgon sounds like someone returned a large BF order lol.
  • kdzgonkdzgon Member Posts: 12

    @kdzgon sounds like someone returned a large BF order lol.

    ??trying hard to decipher all the abbreviations :)
    DGS (lives w me) has his own lego addiction, keeping me from indulging in my own too often - especially as he is now into monsters (did almost every set this fall) and now mindstorms (he's in a STEM school)
    Add to that 5 other grands, 4 of whom love legos, and you can imagine my city block is woefully short lol...


  • kdzgonkdzgon Member Posts: 12
    Duh. Never mind - no, I didn't return anything on/from BF..a "quick stop" cost me almost $300 more...I passed on a DA for my DD (a BIG time HP fan) as I was overspent enough...monthly "quick stops" are killing me lately!!
    Of course, on the bright side, I now have about $170 in VIP credits sitting there...
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