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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    Well... the last two versions only came with Darth Maul. I'm not saying this one will skyrocket, of course... just that it could be a potential sleeper because of the minifigs versus the overall poor quality of the ship. Kind of like the AT-OT/Dropship... where it was essentially only half a good set.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Idk, always thought the Dropship would do well myself. Its a very unique set, lots of figs and I don't see it being repeated. Granted it appeared not to move to well at the price, but that does not take away from the uniqueness once EOL.

    The Infiltrator has been on clearance for over a year now -- and lately for 30% off for weeks! $90 is a lot of money for something not unique or special or something lacking interest. I could see your point at half the price, but not at near $100.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,484
    edited November 2012
    gmpirate said:

    ^ who knows, the last one didn't do anything . . .

    I'm guessing the 2nd Sith Infiltrator did not do anything due to the magnet sets that basically had the same fig and the fact another came out only after about 1 year the 2nd version retired.
    It all depends on if this will occur again.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    The challenge to making money on Black Pearl at this point is that I think thousands are in the hands of resellers.

    It is perhaps one of the more obvious sets to resell, it has been discounted and clearanced heavily (I picked up half a dozen from Walmart this past summer for $69 a copy, then more from Target for $70 after discounts, etc. Many other people found them for $50.

    It isn't the best ship, QAR and IF have it beaten, but who cares, it is the Black Pearl. :)

    Will it do well? A few thoughts:

    1. When is the next movie coming out?
    2. Will LEGO ever do another Black Pearl?
    3. How quickly will resellers dump their inventory?
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816
    At last! 10193 has gone to ' call to check product availability ' in the UK
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    I'm not 100% certain but it looks like #3315 is on the way out. Hard to tell how any Friends will do in the aftermarket, but in general the series has been selling like hotcakes.

    #3315 was the "big" set of the first wave friends release.
  • staffmarkstaffmark Member Posts: 44
    I noticed that the Batcave is OOS online at Walmart and Target, and up to $90 on Amazon. Is this set on its way out?
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^I don't expect any of the DC line is on it's way out before the end of the year, but just my opinion. I would guess Spring at the earliest.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,484
    8070 Technic Super Car is apparently sold out at LEGO and I'm wondering if this is the last of the car, or if this is another case of LEGO errantly showing something as 'Sold out' when it is not..
    It has been out for about 1 -1.5 years... but not sure...
  • AmberylAmberyl Member Posts: 193
    I would be shocked if they EOL any of the Friends sets this soon. Especially when the line has sold amazingly well, and there's not a big range of sets targeting girls yet, so to offer broader product selection, keeping the first two waves around for a while makes sense. Moreover, #3315 is the "dollhouse" set, which I'd expect would be a solid seller.
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    My daughter pointed out that. If they EOL #3315, then there will be no doll house on the market for the "Friends" to live in. She knows nothing about LEGO, but she believes it stays for longer because of that.
    Cam_n_Stupharmjodricho
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    @Amberyl - Part of me agrees with you, but #3315 was part of the first wave of releases, and the second wave contains a sort of similar set with #3186 (the riding camp). If TLG doesn't discontinue the first wave sets, then there will be over eight sets in the $25 and up range for sale.

    Like I said, I'm not 100% certain, but I notice it appears to be going out of stock a few places.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719

    8070 Technic Super Car is apparently sold out at LEGO...

    I noticed that too. According to Brickset, #8070 has been out since March 2011. I don't think wouldn't be all that peculiar for it to EOL now. It's still available from Lego.com in the UK and from TRU in the US.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    I'm not 100% certain but it looks like #3315 is on the way out. Hard to tell how any Friends will do in the aftermarket, but in general the series has been selling like hotcakes.

    #3315 was the "big" set of the first wave friends release.

    The list I saw said that Olivia's House will be here for another year. Several other Friend's sets are indeed going, but that one should stay.

    Or so says my source. :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    staffmark said:

    I noticed that the Batcave is OOS online at Walmart and Target, and up to $90 on Amazon. Is this set on its way out?

    The Bat Cave should have another year in it as well.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Dad said:

    At last! 10193 has gone to ' call to check product availability ' in the UK

    10193 is confirmed to be EOL this year.
  • abenamouabenamou Member Posts: 12
    Thanks LFT, can you comment on the 2507 Fire Temple? EOL?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    abenamou said:

    Thanks LFT, can you comment on the 2507 Fire Temple? EOL?

    #2507 is also gone for good...
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    Which friends sets look to be going? I'd like to make sure I have one of each for my little girl before they are gone.
  • abenamouabenamou Member Posts: 12
    Thanks so much, too bad about the FB (I have a bunch too). Is the TB 10214 going to be around you think too?
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    pharmjod said:

    Which friends sets look to be going? I'd like to make sure I have one of each for my little girl before they are gone.

    Definitely not Olivia's house. That one is staying. It's arguably also the hottest LEGO toy this holiday, so it will be hard to find during December.

    The smaller $10 sets, especially the original wave, might be on the way out. Pet show also appears to be disappearing online, including Lego.com. I need to pick that one up this week.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    pharmjod said:

    Which friends sets look to be going? I'd like to make sure I have one of each for my little girl before they are gone.

    Several of the 1st wave of smaller ones are going, some are already sold out on [email protected], others will be shortly.

    Amazon is also already sold out of a number of Friends sets, so some of the 1st wave are already hard to find.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    abenamou said:

    Thanks so much, too bad about the FB (I have a bunch too). Is the TB 10214 going to be around you think too?

    I have no idea. It wasn't on the list that I saw (and that list did have 10193 on it), but there is no assurance that the list was complete either.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited November 2012
    I know that I'm probably in the minority here, but I'm glad that FB is staying for another year. I'm still on the fence about collecting the modulars (only have GE) so it will give me more time to think about it. I'm not typically a fan of fire and police stations. They're just kind of pedestrian and boring to me. Now, if the Palace Cinema is indeed a reality then I will probably be picking that one up even before FB.
  • AmberylAmberyl Member Posts: 193
    If you haven't actually taken a close look at the Fire Brigade: It is anything but pedestrian and boring. It's full of great building techniques, and the interior of the station has lots of interesting things that you don't associate with a child's version of a fire station. (For instance, there's a ping-pong table, miniature kitchen, and so forth.)
  • jpczjpcz Member Posts: 95
    ^i personally recommend the modulars...especially if you have some display space. I only have the space to display one at a time, so i build one and leave it up a few months before going to the next. Even at that, i get compliments from family and friends every time they're over, and they cant wait to see the next one.

    You wont be disappointed, the build is so fun and the final product is simply awesome.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    I've analyzed it pretty well. I'm aware of it's detail and I do think that it's a nice looking set. I enjoyed building GE. It's just that I tend to go for stuff that connects to me in some way and I've just never been into fire stations. I know a lot of kids were.
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    ^ I think I know what you're saying, Mathew. Even as a child in his LEGO prime, the police and fire sets were quite boring to me. I can't really put a finger on why, but I was always way more excited about airports, or gas stations and such in my 80s Legoland cities.

    With that said, the FB is special and I love it. It's probably my favorite modular.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    mathew said:

    I've analyzed it pretty well. I'm aware of it's detail and I do think that it's a nice looking set. I enjoyed building GE. It's just that I tend to go for stuff that connects to me in some way and I've just never been into fire stations. I know a lot of kids were.

    If you don't like it, don't buy it... don't let peer pressure affect you, ignore it if you aren't thrilled with it.

    No worries to any of us... we are just passing along our thoughts... :)
  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265
    Or you can buy it, build it and display it for a year or so... by then it will likely be worth more than the $130 at amazon right now.
    Not many other toys that you can play with and sell for more than you paid
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098

    If you don't like it, don't buy it... don't let peer pressure affect you, ignore it if you aren't thrilled with it.

    No worries to any of us... we are just passing along our thoughts... :)

    I wish it were that easy. I've got Odin saying it's his favorite modular and he didn't grow up wanting to be a fire fighter either ; )

    I actually purchased it earlier this year when it was thought to be going EOL and you couldn't find it anywhere except [email protected] At the time I felt like I had purchased it due to peer pressure and decided to use it as part of a trade for the Imperial Flagship.

    Regardless, I'm also on the fence because I feel like the larger collector sets tend to just gather dust after awhile. They're fun to build but because they are collectable I don't want to part them out or let my kids play with them. So they just sit and I contemplate selling them.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited November 2012
    Odindusk said:

    ^ I think I know what you're saying, Mathew. Even as a child in his LEGO prime, the police and fire sets were quite boring to me. I can't really put a finger on why, but I was always way more excited about airports, or gas stations and such in my 80s Legoland cities.

    With that said, the FB is special and I love it. It's probably my favorite modular.

    I never had a ton of Lego when I was a kid and my mom got rid of it after I moved out. The sets I had were mostly space and castle. I had a couple of technic sets which I never liked. Still don't. I honestly don't remember having any city or town sets. And I never wanted to be a fire fighter or police officer. Hell, I still don't know what I want to be : [

    With that said I do think the architecture of the FB is quite nice and it has by far the best back side of any of the modulars.

    I will see. I bought the mini modulars during the BF sale as I had been eyeing them for awhile and I like micro-building. They also will take up a lot less space than the full size modulars. If I fall in love with the micro version of FB I may want to buy the full size model.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748

    Any thoughts/predictions on the Yellow Cargo Train #7939?

    Based on what Ive been told (by various lego staff) its not due to go until next year.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    Any thoughts/predictions on the Yellow Cargo Train #7939?

    It will be here for another year, or more...
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    We now say a fond farewell to QAR (sold out S&H, UK) and wish her a safe journey on those stormy seas as her sails slowly take her towards the £200 bracket.
    [Deleted User]
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Aye, she be gone Matey.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    edited November 2012
    Wow, not to beat a dead horse or anything but this Minecraft thing is insane. I had 8 of them up for sale on ebay. They were up for about a week then all of a sudden they all sold out one after another last night and this morning. Almost all of them (except 1) was international. I've only been in the reselling biz for a year but this set must be some sort of anomaly. The price just keeps going up!

    Lego would be crazy to stop production of these...ever.
  • thorniethornie Member Posts: 245
    ^ Yeah. I think I'm going to put my two up on ebay this week. I've kind of been holding out for a while waiting for the price to get higher, but I think at $120 a piece we are seeing their peak. Considering I bought them at RRP, if I can sell them both for $100 each, that's a $120 profit on both. I'm not a reseller, but I did buy this set with the sole intent to resell for profit.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    And your international buyers may be flipping them for a profit as well. It seems to have become a monster short-term moneymaker. At some point, they'll get restocked for good and it will all come tumbling down.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Not sure I'd call it a "monster" short term money maker. The ROI on one is good but no one is managing to get enough of these to make it a "monster" money maker.
    LegoFanTexas
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    The other issue is if you wait too long to sell it, you might sell it a few days before it restocks everywhere, then you end up with 10 customers wanting their money back.

    That is why I sold mine for $100 each before Black Friday, I'd rather put some space and time between the sales and when they restock, I'll make less profit, but get far fewer return requests.

    For a set that actually isn't retired, holding them is a gamble.
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272


    The list I saw said that Olivia's House will be here for another year. Several other Friend's sets are indeed going, but that one should stay.

    Or so says my source. :)

    Probably the shortages I'm seeing are just due to it being a "hot" toy this season. Looking over the complete list of sets in both waves, I also notice that the second wave doesn't have anything at the same price point as #3315 ($70). It has a $50 set and a $100 set, so keeping the $70 set makes sense.

    Sorry for the false alarm :-)
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    edited November 2012
    #7208 is doing pretyt well on eBay right now, but this is no doubt a holiday rush. It is sold out on LEGO.com, Toyrsus.com and Amazon and pretty much impossible to find in stores. I realized it was going out, and being the completist I am, needed one for my collection. I somehow found one last Wednesday at Toys R Us - the last one, and somebody had hid it behind a bunch of harbor sets. And that was before the weekend shopping rush. I doubt there are many left in stores.

    Open copies are going for around retail and sealed copies in the $100-$130 range.

    But no doubt this is a holiday bump and it is going to be a hot Christmas gift, especially with the new 2013 fire station still nowhere to be found.
  • Penkid11Penkid11 Member Posts: 789
    ^Open copies ARE NOT going for retail. (Sorry time for more bragging) I have an used set up right now that has pretty much earned 100% profit.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    Penkid11 said:

    ^Open copies ARE NOT going for retail. (Sorry time for more bragging) I have an used set up right now that has pretty much earned 100% profit.

    That's awesome, but the most recent open copies on eBay went for about retail - $76 and $81.
  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,271
    ^ looks like whoever bought my 2 sealed copies for $70 each over the weekend got a good deal. Still made more than 50% return. Might have to sell my copy since I doubt Id ever build it.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    This happens most every year. One of the flagship Lego sets get shorted and there are good short run profits to be made. Happened with the Police headquarters a couple years ago. I would never buy these sets for more than 50% off, however, because its just a gamble and short window of opportunity.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Was hoping for this to happen with the Police Headquarters this year as I found plenty at 50%. To this day, I have never found the Fire Station on sale :(
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    gmpirate said:

    Was hoping for this to happen with the Police Headquarters this year as I found plenty at 50%. To this day, I have never found the Fire Station on sale :(

    Ditto. I almost always hold off on buying the large city sets because I can always find them on 50%+ discount sometime during their shelf life. But the fire station? Never once! Sucked up the TRU mark-up ($89.99), but had a 20% coupon that effectively made it 10% off.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    New subject, for #10216, Winter Bakery, buy now or wait until more substantial discounts after Christmas ? Did Toy Shop get heavily discounted after Christmas 2011 ?
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