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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • SiESiE Member Posts: 238
    Thats it, i remember buying halo figures when i first got halo 1 on the xbox. I just had them next to my pc.
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    On back-order again at UK [email protected] - 17 Dec 2012 now. It was available earlier today when I placed an order.

    So no use for resellers aiming for Xmas sales.
  • legoprodslegoprods Member Posts: 445
    For europeans, check Sopwith Camel @ amazon.fr

    Best price I've ever seen on it!
  • berniebondberniebond Member Posts: 137
    ^ thank you!
  • legoprodslegoprods Member Posts: 445
    berniebond said:

    ^ thank you!

    You guys did your homework! Maan that was fast :P

  • VimesVimes Member Posts: 24
    Thanks, ordered the Sopwith and also the GE (available for 119 euro). First time using amazon outside of uk, so fingers crossed!
  • legoprodslegoprods Member Posts: 445
    Vimes said:

    Thanks, ordered the Sopwith and also the GE (available for 119 euro). First time using amazon outside of uk, so fingers crossed!

    I'm also a first timer! I only ordered two sopwiths since we already have the GE in Spain for 122€ so it's good enough for me (free shipping!)

    -G

  • berniebondberniebond Member Posts: 137
    I bought four. Actually i bought two and my wife bought two (I have to tell her yet...)

    I think this gets close to the three best offers from an european amazon site i have ever seen, the others being 8078 Portal of Atlantis (.fr, [email protected]€), 10188 DS (.it, [email protected]€), 10214 TB (.it, @152€)
  • absolut3absolut3 Member Posts: 83
    Any one think the kingdom joust will be discontinued seeing how it's 20% off at the Lego store?
  • legoprodslegoprods Member Posts: 445
    berniebond said:

    I bought four. Actually i bought two and my wife bought two (I have to tell her yet...)

    I think this gets close to the three best offers from an european amazon site i have ever seen, the others being 8078 Portal of Atlantis (.fr, [email protected]€), 10188 DS (.it, [email protected]€), 10214 TB (.it, @152€)

    So you are saying I should really buy two more?

    -G
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    absolut3 said:

    Any one think the kingdom joust will be discontinued seeing how it's 20% off at the Lego store?

    It isn't discounted at [email protected]?
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    Minecraft is sold out in the US. Does this means its goodnight?
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    absolut3 said:

    Any one think the kingdom joust will be discontinued seeing how it's 20% off at the Lego store?

    About the best indicator there is for something going EOL.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    gmpirate said:

    absolut3 said:

    Any one think the kingdom joust will be discontinued seeing how it's 20% off at the Lego store?

    About the best indicator there is for something going EOL.
    Might be the best, but not conclusive. I doubt Kingdom's Joust is being discontinued. The large sets simply don't last for only a year. And Mini Modulars also probably isn't on the way out.

    Today I noticed in store that some retiring sets now have placards indidcating such on the shelves, which is nice to see.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Joust was 20% off in my local LEGO store as well.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    richo said:

    Minecraft is sold out in the US. Does this means its goodnight?

    No, it was marked as sold out this summer then came back.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,099
    There's not a chance that Minecraft goes EOL this season. And I've said it before, Joust is probably going. It uses the old horse model and is the last remaining Kingdoms set. I don't see why people think it's going to stick around for another year.
  • AmberylAmberyl Member Posts: 193
    For those of you in the Bay Area... spotted at Ambassador Toys in Palo Alto today: Prison Tower Rescue ($60), Black Pearl ($130), Scorpion Pyramid ($120). Their Lego is generally marked up $10 or more over RRP, but Prison Tower Rescue MIB is not a bad deal at $60 ($10 over RRP) given the current Brickpicker value of $73 new.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    edited November 2012
    mathew said:

    There's not a chance that Minecraft goes EOL this season. And I've said it before, Joust is probably going. It uses the old horse model and is the last remaining Kingdoms set. I don't see why people think it's going to stick around for another year.

    Using the last mold is irrelevant. Old sets have lasted mold changes using old molds many times before.

    Plus Kingdoms is relaunching in late spring.

    Joust isn't going anywhere.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    I regret to report that Death Star and Fire Brigade are staying for another year.
  • legoprodslegoprods Member Posts: 445
    LegoFanTexas said:

    I regret to report that Death Star and Fire Brigade are staying for another year.

    Please tell me your sources lack total credibility!

    Oh, not another year.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    edited November 2012
    Death Star hanging around isn't surprising at all. Fire Brigade is perplexing. Assuming it stays on into March (and assuming Palace Cinema launches in March), that'll be five modulars on the market at once.

    To be fair, though, Fire Brigade is so far superior to the others in the line, it may make sense to keep it on past one of the newer modulars.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    My gut feeling is that FB will go out first part of year. But the way things are going with Lego, I'm not going to keep buying -- even if Amazon has a "decent" deal right now.
  • thenosthenos Member Posts: 444
    IS is $209.99 at Amazon. Does Amazon typically lower prices slowly until they disappear from their inventory?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    legoprods said:

    LegoFanTexas said:

    I regret to report that Death Star and Fire Brigade are staying for another year.

    Please tell me your sources lack total credibility!

    Oh, not another year.
    Believe me, I wish it were not true, I own 70+ Fire Brigades. ;)

    I am sorry, but the source is as solid as it gets, I saw it in writing. :(

    Of course, things can and do change, so who knows what the future holds...
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ Amazon's prices go up and down throughout. You can click on the product chart o this website to see the graph history.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    thenos said:

    IS is $209.99 at Amazon. Does Amazon typically lower prices slowly until they disappear from their inventory?

    If what I saw today is true, IS is gone end of this year, but rather than sell them off at 25% off like they did with IF and EN last year, they have just been unwinding them from inventory naturally.

    I have no idea if the final batch has been made, but my understanding is that stocks are low and no further copies are likely to be shipped to stores, except for a few flagship stores and perhaps the national accounts like Amazon.

    My gut feeling (this is not confirmed, this part is my own take on it) is that IS will go to sold out on [email protected] in the first or second week of December. It might get "marked down" 25% on Dec 26th (so that no receipt returns after Christmas are at a lower price), but you won't actually be able to find it anywhere so it won't matter.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    gmpirate said:

    My gut feeling is that FB will go out first part of year. But the way things are going with Lego, I'm not going to keep buying -- even if Amazon has a "decent" deal right now.

    I am not buying any more either.

    I was advised to look to Sept-October next year for EOL of FB. This comes from a source that has been right in the past about many things, but not 100% of the time.

    The only sure thing that I know is that FB and DS are not going to EOL this year. Flump was right about that. :(

    MMV on the other hand, is EOL this year, for what that is worth, but that should surprise no one.
  • thenosthenos Member Posts: 444
    gmpirate said:

    ^ Amazon's prices go up and down throughout. You can click on the product chart o this website to see the graph history.

    Thanks. Never noticed that before. Is it odd that brickset is tracking a third party one and not the one sold by Amazon directly?

    And where was I at the end of June. Sigh.

  • Nadana86Nadana86 Member Posts: 65
    IS has been marked as sold out at [email protected] in Germany for a couple of weeks now. However stores got a delivery last Monday/Tuesday so they have them in stock (checked thursday in Frankfurt, bought friday in Cologne).
    Pretty sure it's going EOL soon so I'm happy I bought a mint one from Lego directly (I've seen lots of very bad boxes in other stores)

    Btw, Cologne store and the "store" at the "LEGO Fanwelt" this weekend have a lot of Minecraft in stock!
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    ^Yes, the box they made for IS is not of the greatest quality as it easily gets dented/beat up. Same applies for the Excavator. I have a few of each that are rather worse for wear.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,757
    edited November 2012
    The rumor I heard was that LEGO will have more on sale at the end of the year (an after Christmas sale I believe) where I'm guessing better deals than BF will be had. Although I have to say that 115 for the Reg Cargo train was pretty nice (coupled with a 35 dollar Beach House).

    Im guessing that LEGO REALLY wants to sell as much at retail before Christmas THEN discount.
    FatMatt said:

    ^Yes, the box they made for IS is not of the greatest quality as it easily gets dented/beat up. Same applies for the Excavator. I have a few of each that are rather worse for wear.

    The bigger the box, the more likely there will be issues with it. I got two Unimog sets from TRU that had all the seals failed (I had gotten replacements)
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    ^I can't speak to the Unimog, but the issue with the IS is that the box is actually too small. It's pretty much completely full and the box just can't suitably support the weight of the contents.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    y2josh said:

    ^I can't speak to the Unimog, but the issue with the IS is that the box is actually too small. It's pretty much completely full and the box just can't suitably support the weight of the contents.

    Yes, usually it is the other way around, too big of a box, but in this case, IS could have used a SSD sized box with internal boxes for the parts.

    I've deboxed a SSD to ship overseas and the contents including manual actually fit into a IS box, believe it or not. And still room was left to wrap all the parts bags in bubblewrap and leave the big heavy instruction manual in the white box it came in.

    IS is a bargin for the parts you get, SSD is not, amazing given the price different between them.

    SSD should have been $299.
  • PicopiratePicopirate Member Posts: 325
    edited November 2012
    The fire brigade was out of stock for while at my local lego store. Every since they replenished, I have seen someone buy it every time I visited. It is loved by kids, adults, and collectors alike and I suspect that it has the best sales of all the modulars. My gut feeling is it will stay and either the Grand Emporium will go away this year or two sets will be retired next year. The main thing going for it is that it is the only corner set now.
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    Destiny's Bounty seems to have already jumped in price a little. Does anyone know if they are still in stock anywhere?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ Plenty in stock at my local LEGO store yesterday
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    ^How about online anywhere?
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    I see Toys R Us still has them, haven't seen anywhere else.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    Speaking of ships, Black Pearl doesn't seem to have risen in price much. I know it was just available yesterday at Target, but it's available no where now (except, perhaps, in a very few TRU stores). Maybe it's still too early for the gouging to begin!
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    ^Right now there are lots of people dumping their Black Friday finds to make a small profit after fees and shipping. Once those die down it should start to rise. I think Target held the last of the widely available stock of them.
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    edited November 2012
    I am actually happy that these sets are staying for longer. I only have one FB and no DS yet, so it gives me a bit more time to stock up on those :)

    The downside is that most resellers have plenty of these in stock already and most collectors that really want these sets probably already have them, so I believe prices will take longer to go up on these after they EOL.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    nkx1 said:

    Speaking of ships, Black Pearl doesn't seem to have risen in price much. I know it was just available yesterday at Target, but it's available no where now (except, perhaps, in a very few TRU stores). Maybe it's still too early for the gouging to begin!

    Just the fact that the price had already risen above RRP is pretty incredible given the over supply of these things. Thousands went on clearance this year from 25% to 75% off. As FatMatt said, once the latest Target clearance is absorbed, they will climb again.

    And there is no "gouging". They will sell at what people are willing to pay -- no more, and no less.
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited November 2012
    ^Good points FatMatt and gmpirate. I guess these sets were fairly ubiquitous versus something like #10210 Imperial Flagship.

    The gouging thing was stated in jest; I'm quite familiar with the secondary Lego free market in which many of us participate (me included). I might not approach it as seriously as some here.
  • Penkid11Penkid11 Member Posts: 788
    As a small forecast on Minecraft, I just sold one this morning on fee-bay for $111 before fees. The buyer payed immediately.
  • pcironepcirone Member Posts: 346
    I just got off the phone with a very helpful CSR at [email protected] who was fixing my VIP point balance and I asked if Minecraft was coming back in stock, she immediately assured me that it would be restocked and advised me to not pay above RRP from anywhere else. For whatever it's worth.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    Looks like Amazon finally dumped all their #4194 at 30% off. Now the slow climb to RRP.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    :) Several sets that Amazon has had at 30% off have finally sold out.

    #4194 is a good example, as is #7930 and #7961 - both were 30% off for months.

    Will be interesting to watch, but I don't expect any of those to do more than RRP for a year.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    I think of those three, the Infiltrator will be the one to watch. The ship itself is pretty awful, but the minifigs could drive the price on that one.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ who knows, the last one didn't do anything . . .
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