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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Bandit said:

    gmpirate said:


    And like @nkx1, there is a more intrinsic value to my time. It costs me money if I decide to watch tv or go to my nephew's birthday party. Because I am aware of this it just gets factored into everything I do. I suppose that's why we have the saying "nothing is free".

    How do either of those things cost you money?
    I own a business. If I am not present, I have to pay people to be there in my absence. If I am not working on "growing" my business, it costs me.

    When I take my boys to their baseball lessons which are $80 an hour, it really costs me $105 an hour because of the additional labor on the schedule to cover me in my absence. If I'm really quick, maybe I only need an extra hour between taking them to practice, back home and then getting back to work. So now we are at $130. Now consider I really can't be bringing people in for just two hour shifts -- who wants to do that? So for a four hour shift we are up to $180 for an hour baseball lesson.

    Of course, I could choose to not value my time and just look at it as an $80 lesson. That certainly sounds better anyway :P
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ agreed! I probably average about 10-20 packages per week, sometimes less (summer) sometimes more, so it's actually a pretty small burden on the whole. I certainly never spend half my Saturday!!!!
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    @dougts @bandit I hope I'm coming across ok. I totally understand where you guys are coming from as I have looked at this the same way for a long time. There is a lot of enjoyment in it and if I can make some dough at the same time its a bonus. I've just personally arrived at a different point and realization now.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    dougts said:

    One other thing to consider is not just time, but relative effort. I could certainly make more per hour if I decided to take up a second job freelancing in the same type of work as I do in my "day job". However, that work is much more mentally taxing, could not be ramped up and down nearly as quickly or flexibly, and would require more "administrative" attention to setup and continue to operate going forward. And let's face it - I do that 50 hour a week already. My LEGO hobby selling is mindless fun that can be ramped up or down on a whim as I so choose.

    I actually *do* do exactly this. To the tune of 10 hours per week on average. But that still leaves plenty of time for everything else. And I make *far* more doing that than I ever could selling Lego. But I like doing the Lego thing, it's something different, and it's 'mindless' like you said. And I'm actually making money rather than watching tv or doing any other mindless activity.
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    gmpirate said:

    Bandit said:


    How do either of those things cost you money?

    I own a business. If I am not present, I have to pay people to be there in my absence. If I am not working on "growing" my business, it costs me.

    When I take my boys to their baseball lessons which are $80 an hour, it really costs me $105 an hour because of the additional labor on the schedule to cover me in my absence. If I'm really quick, maybe I only need an extra hour between taking them to practice, back home and then getting back to work. So now we are at $130. Now consider I really can't be bringing people in for just two hour shifts -- who wants to do that? So for a four hour shift we are up to $180 for an hour baseball lesson.

    Of course, I could choose to not value my time and just look at it as an $80 lesson. That certainly sounds better anyway :P
    I see what you mean. I guess I was implying the time when you're *not* working. Surely you're not working all the time. :) But if you literally work so much that there's really not much, if any, time to do anything else, that's understandable.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    gmpirate said:

    @dougts @bandit I hope I'm coming across ok. I totally understand where you guys are coming from as I have looked at this the same way for a long time. There is a lot of enjoyment in it and if I can make some dough at the same time its a bonus. I've just personally arrived at a different point and realization now.

    oh absolutely! this is an interesting conversation, and not to sound like a broken record, but in the end these are very personal time/value calculations that each person has to make for themselves given their unique circumstances.

    no worries!
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    gmpirate said:

    @dougts @bandit I hope I'm coming across ok. I totally understand where you guys are coming from as I have looked at this the same way for a long time. There is a lot of enjoyment in it and if I can make some dough at the same time its a bonus. I've just personally arrived at a different point and realization now.

    No worries!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    gmpirate said:

    I own a business. If I am not present, I have to pay people to be there in my absence. If I am not working on "growing" my business, it costs me.

    When I take my boys to their baseball lessons which are $80 an hour, it really costs me $105 an hour because of the additional labor on the schedule to cover me in my absence. If I'm really quick, maybe I only need an extra hour between taking them to practice, back home and then getting back to work. So now we are at $130. Now consider I really can't be bringing people in for just two hour shifts -- who wants to do that? So for a four hour shift we are up to $180 for an hour baseball lesson.

    ^ This right here is the type of thinking that most people don't do, or don't need to do, because of where they are in life, with their job, etc.

    I dealt with it by removing myself from the schedule completely. I could be there as the manager, but then I'm tied to the office. So I choose to just make the business work without me there unless I wish to be or need to be.

    But my time still has value. Part of the value of my time on these forums is that I have a decent amount of capital tied up in LEGO, and thus need to make sure I see a return on that. Packing and shipping is work that I can farm out, but I can't hire someone to do this part. :)
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    edited November 2012
    So I guess we have successfully established there is no one-size-fits-all metric or rationale that will accurately assess the value of one's time. That was fun!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    nkx1 said:

    So I guess we have successfully established there is no one-size-fits-all metric or rationale that will accurately assess the value of one's time. That was fun!

    I agree! That only took 40 posts! :)
  • tk79tk79 Member Posts: 329
    ^I actually thought we came to a conclusion, no? I've got:

    Vt=☼Ω/µ

  • brickmaticbrickmatic Member Posts: 1,071
    edited November 2012
    So.... for all of you debating the monetary value of time, you're using the wrong metric. You guys should be discussing the value of time in utils not dollars, pounds, or whatever measure of money that is relevant to you. Because you're really talking about the utility to you as an individual of various activities. Too bad utils can't be measured or observed directly. You have to use a proxy to indirectly determine utility. Money spent and earned tends to work well as a proxy, but it's not utility, so you run into the sort of misunderstandings that you guys have been having if you speak of how much your time is worth purely in monetary terms without considering utility.
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622

    So.... for all of you debating the monetary value of time, you're using the wrong metric. You guys should be discussing the value of time in utils not dollars, pounds, or whatever measure of money that is relevant to you. Because you're really talking about the utility to you as an individual of various activities. Too bad utils can't be measured or observed directly. You have to use a proxy to indirectly determine utility. Money spent and earned tends to work well as a proxy, but it's not utility, so you run into the sort of misunderstandings that you guys have been having if you speak of how much your time is worth purely in monetary terms without considering utility.

    LOL, dont think i understood 1 word of what you just said xD
  • brickmaticbrickmatic Member Posts: 1,071
    edited November 2012
    ^ Lol! If you want a thorough explanation, I recommend the wiki article on the topic of utility. I linked to it in my post because I figured many people might not be familiar with the concept.

    But to put it more simply, think about the elaborate baseball lesson example that @LegoFanTexas talked about. He said the lesson cost $80, but really it cost him $180 by his calculations. The problem is, why is he spending money on a baseball lesson at all? He's not going to be making profit playing baseball (I assume) so why bother? Obviously he gets something out of the baseball lesson that to him is worth $180 or more in costs. That something is utility. The proper unit of measure of utility is called a util. It's abstract, because we can't measure utility directly. But the concept is good at helping understand economic transactions.

    Think about buying fruit. You can buy and apple or a pear for the same price. You get the same amount of fruit. Which do you buy? This depends on how much utility you get from each. If you like the apple more than the pear, you'll buy that. This is why utility is a representation of preferences.

    Finally, one interesting thing is the utility of money. It is not linear. So if you only have $100, $10 is worth more to you than if you had $100000. This is because of diminishing marginal utility. The interesting implication of the non-linearity of the utility of money is that the optimal choice for a given decision depends on the possible outcomes of all other decisions in the same time-period.
  • brickmaticbrickmatic Member Posts: 1,071
    ^ I realize the baseball lessons were for his sons, but it still unlikely that's the best way to make money. You can also imagine that the lesson was for LFT if you'd like.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    I feel enlightened.
  • turtle1173turtle1173 Member Posts: 230
    This is hilarious. Someone posts that the thread has been quiet and then we have over 70 posts, lol.

    I have found that I kind of enjoy the "thrill of the hunt" and the selling part of all this. So, all this is "fun" to me. Granted, I don't do near as much as most here but that's OK. That's why this is a great thread... everyone can do as much or as little as they want. They can take the "speculation" as absolute or they can "branch out" as they see fit. Then we all can compare notes.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002

    ^ Lol! If you want a thorough explanation, I recommend the wiki article on the topic of utility. I linked to it in my post because I figured many people might not be familiar with the concept.

    But to put it more simply, think about the elaborate baseball lesson example that @LegoFanTexas talked about. He said the lesson cost $80, but really it cost him $180 by his calculations. The problem is, why is he spending money on a baseball lesson at all? He's not going to be making profit playing baseball (I assume) so why bother? Obviously he gets something out of the baseball lesson that to him is worth $180 or more in costs. That something is utility. The proper unit of measure of utility is called a util. It's abstract, because we can't measure utility directly. But the concept is good at helping understand economic transactions.

    Think about buying fruit. You can buy and apple or a pear for the same price. You get the same amount of fruit. Which do you buy? This depends on how much utility you get from each. If you like the apple more than the pear, you'll buy that. This is why utility is a representation of preferences.

    Finally, one interesting thing is the utility of money. It is not linear. So if you only have $100, $10 is worth more to you than if you had $100000. This is because of diminishing marginal utility. The interesting implication of the non-linearity of the utility of money is that the optimal choice for a given decision depends on the possible outcomes of all other decisions in the same time-period.

    That was @gmpirate, not @LegoFanTexas. Just so we know.
  • brickmaticbrickmatic Member Posts: 1,071
    ^ Ah yes, I apologize for the error.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    So, do we think we can establish some standard measure of utils that we can all relate to?
  • brickmaticbrickmatic Member Posts: 1,071
    Actually, utils are a standard measure of utility. There is just no way to take a measurement.
  • brickmaticbrickmatic Member Posts: 1,071
    edited November 2012
    But that doesn't really matter. Look at it this way: don't ask how much is your time worth, ask how much utility you get from reselling Lego.

    You make money, which is nice. You get utility from the money you make. But if you're an AFOL, you probably also enjoy the process. In that case, you get utility from the very act of reselling LEGO. You enjoy the chase of a good deal, the research on sets, or perhaps the logistics. The act gives you enjoyment, which adds to the utility of the activity.

    Now weigh that against everything else you could do with your time. Perhaps you could be working. You'd make more money, which means more utility, but perhaps the marginal gain is not worth that much. And perhaps work stresses you out, so it would detract from your total utility. In that case, it is possible that for that hour you invest in reselling you gain more utility than you would doing anything else. But it really depends on your individual preferences and your situation in life.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Here's how I look at reselling Lego sets...

    I have kids that will be going to college in the not too distant future. I have purchased an array of sets that will (in most cases) be EOL'd by the time they get ready to go (Indiana Jones, IF, etc.). I figure I can let them learn about the headaches of running a small business while reselling the sets. Plus I will let them use the proceeds to fund their college. I expect it to be financially profitable, but more importantly I know it will provide good experience for them.
    Cam_n_Stu
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Omg!!! I leave for a few hours and there was 42 posts!!!???
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,050
    gmpirate said:

    Bandit said:

    gmpirate said:


    And like @nkx1, there is a more intrinsic value to my time. It costs me money if I decide to watch tv or go to my nephew's birthday party. Because I am aware of this it just gets factored into everything I do. I suppose that's why we have the saying "nothing is free".

    How do either of those things cost you money?
    I own a business. If I am not present, I have to pay people to be there in my absence. If I am not working on "growing" my business, it costs me.

    When I take my boys to their baseball lessons which are $80 an hour, it really costs me $105 an hour because of the additional labor on the schedule to cover me in my absence. If I'm really quick, maybe I only need an extra hour between taking them to practice, back home and then getting back to work. So now we are at $130. Now consider I really can't be bringing people in for just two hour shifts -- who wants to do that? So for a four hour shift we are up to $180 for an hour baseball lesson.

    Of course, I could choose to not value my time and just look at it as an $80 lesson. That certainly sounds better anyway :P
    So this post cost you $4.45? That's a tough way to look at your time.
    pharmjod
  • brickmaticbrickmatic Member Posts: 1,071
    ^ Yes, but posting the post was so much fun that it was totally worth the $4.45!
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^ up to $5.00 now... ;)
  • LegofanscottLegofanscott Member Posts: 622
    edited November 2012
    Pitfall69 said:

    Omg!!! I leave for a few hours and there was 42 posts!!!???

    I got lost 42 posts back

    Something about time, utilities, money proxy's and work ;)
  • brickmaticbrickmatic Member Posts: 1,071
    Bandit said:

    ^ up to $5.00 now... ;)

    Only if you use headline inflation instead of core inflation ;)

  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    I tried bringing the subject back by asking about the City theme....that didn't last long ;)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I answered you :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I fear that my comment about "worth your time" spawned a demon.
  • BoiseStateBoiseState Member Posts: 804
    How does the Indiana Jones stuff do?
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    um, does anyone think the DS will EOL soon?
    BumblepantsPitfall69nerick906Penkid11Cam_n_Stu
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    edited November 2012

    How does the Indiana Jones stuff do?

    I would say a 'mixed bag' from what I have seen on ebay. There are some specific sets that do very well, such as The Temple of Doom, but there are also quite a few sets that are not much more than rrp, think the Temple of the Crystal Skull sets.

    Funnily enough one of my favourite sets is a Crystal Skull set, 7628 Peril in Peru. I really love the old plane in it, which is great for other Indy MOCs. I am actually unsure if the scene appeared in the film, so it's a strange set. Can be picked up for below rrp if used, but sealed tends to be x2 rrp.

    http://www.brickset.com/detail/?Set=7628-1
  • JP3804JP3804 Member Posts: 332
    @ BoiseState The Indy sets were the first sets I bought doubles of to sell.
    I paid retail or above ( just out of my dark age) for them. I sold all of them about 1.5 years ago for a net profit of 50% or above. Not sure how they're holding up.
  • black_towrblack_towr MinnesotaMember Posts: 165
    You guys think Ultimate Batmobile, Batcopter w/minifigs and Bat Tank w/minifigs for $60 is a good deal? The last two are just the main vehicles with minifigs nothing else.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited November 2012
    ^Absolutely, provided they are in good condition and complete. If so, even without minifigs you are looking at probably $200 in value or close to.
  • black_towrblack_towr MinnesotaMember Posts: 165
    ^^The vehicles are clean and complete. The minifigs are also complete.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    gmpirate said:

    um, does anyone think the DS will EOL soon?

    Funny... very funny... :)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    On a more serious note:

    What does everyone think of Ninjago this time around? Most of the red box sets did better than everyone expected, so I figure everyone and their brother will be buying the green box sets, except the gold box sets are coming in Jan, along with the end of the line.

    If the cartoon is done in Jan and goes off the air, will demand for the sets go with it? This strikes me as a very cartoon driven demand line, that will be forgotten once gone. Even more so since it is getting replaced by Legends...

    Thoughts?
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^ I'm not buying, although there will certainly be select sets that probably will do well in the post EOL world. Probably better places to put your LEGO money though, of course there's always reason to diversify.

    I have nothing to base this on other than personal preference, but other than the obvious dragon sets, I would think the Tread Assault might be a good bet - it's a decent mid-price point and a very attractive batmobile-esque vehicle.
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    I agree that demand for the Ninjago sets is absolutely driven by kids watching the cartoon. What I don't know is what the syndication plans are for the show. Will a new wave of kids be watching it for the "first" time in two years?
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    I think Destiny's Bounty might do well. Ships seems to do decently in general, and the set is a ship of sorts. It also looks cool. I'm hoping it will do well anyway, since I have a few stocked up...
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    I'd probably say the bigger sets at 50% is not a bad risk at all. Everything else and other price points are iffy.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited November 2012
    ^Where are you going to find the Dragon Battle at $60 besides lucky clearance finds, or Destiny's Bounty for that matter?
  • brickmaticbrickmatic Member Posts: 1,071
    I think the Ninjago sets will do quite well when the kids today become the AFOLs of the future coming out of their dark age hibernation.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^So hold onto those sets for another 15 years folks:)
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    I'm not buying any Ninjago sets. I think as soon as the cartoon goes so does the interest. Saw it plenty of times during the 80's. Cartoon comes out, toy line comes out, huge buying frenzy, cartoon ends, interest goes, what's next?
  • brickmaticbrickmatic Member Posts: 1,071
    You mean like Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles? (1987–1996)
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