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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited October 2012
    It appears that the discussions in another thread called "Confirmed sets that EOL in 2012 and those staying on for 2013" are now basically rehashing discussions from this thread. Either this thread on EOLing should be archived and all discussions moved to the other thread or vice versa. I am now wondering which thread to use for discussions on EOL'd sets? Two threads are one too many to keep up with on the same subject.

    JMO.
    LegoFanTexasFatMattshikadi
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    i say we merge that thread into this one. 140 pages and counting - got to keep it going!
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    dougts said:

    i say we merge that thread into this one. 140 pages and counting - got to keep it going!

    Or just close that thread... :)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Perhaps we should just post on one thread and put a link that that post on the other thread. ;-)
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    My vote is to merge the other thread into this one.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    But of course... whatever the mods feel is best has my full support. Just realized I'm tired of all the "voting" talk this time of year! :)
    FollowsClosely
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    The other thread has definitely drifted away from the original topic. Since very few people are likely to have "confirmed" EOLs to share with us, I also vote to shut that thread down and possibly merge it with this one.
  • BenxSmithBenxSmith Member Posts: 9
    I jump in with the Maersk roumers then, picked em up all over town today. Sitting on 15 at the moment, hope they do good.
    Also bought 4 complete collections of Lord of the Rings. What do you guys expect from lotr? it looks really cool.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    BenxSmith said:

    I jump in with the Maersk roumers then, picked em up all over town today. Sitting on 15 at the moment, hope they do good.
    Also bought 4 complete collections of Lord of the Rings. What do you guys expect from lotr? it looks really cool.

    I don't anticipate Maersk doing nearly as well as EN, and it's a bit early to say with LotR. Depending on how future waves go, the minifigs could be a profit driver. Legolas and Boromir are already pricey due to being in only one set (which most consider to be the worst set of the bunch), so it seems likely the minifigs will do well. The sets from the first wave are pretty lackluster, though, and I don't feel like people would be seeking them out for anything but the figs.

    Either way, I can't imagine LEGO getting rid of them just yet. They've only been out for five months.
  • BenxSmithBenxSmith Member Posts: 9
    Could we do a little poll here, answer if you like. It is anonymous.
    http://poll.pollcode.com/b8j6iw
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    I have a feeling that Maersk will do better than EN. There was more talk about EN and it was a very popular set. There were plenty of re-sellers for EN and its done well - at least double RRP. But I think the Maersk would be much harder to get hold of with less individuals selling. I phoned S&H yesterday and they had 'low stocks'. So I think it could out do EN especially if its gone for good. Its not been out long compared to the EN.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited October 2012
    I think the EN and Maersk sets are comparable sets, yet unique from each other. One is a for freight and the other is passengers. I think the EN is probably as nice of a passenger train that I've seen (I like the old time look). I think that if TLG released an "old time" freight set, I would like it more than the Maersk set. So I guess my conclusion would be to side with the EN (although I want to purchase another Maersk as I am a sucker for trains and ships).
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    I as well do not expect Maersk to do as well as EN.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    FatMatt said:

    I as well do not expect Maersk to do as well as EN.

    I don't either, EN is a classic, beautiful train that is suitable for display on its own.

    Maersk is nice, but it is a freight train, it isn't quite the same thing...

    It will do ok, 50% over RRP perhaps, but I don't see it doing EN numbers.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    I do prefer the looks of the EN thats for sure. There will always be greater numbers sold of EN. I just have that feeling that Maersk will have a higher RRP mark up due to less bulk buying. Would be interesting what quantities were bought by individuals. I had originally bought 60+ En's. Down to 28 now, but I would never have thought of buying that many Maersk's at this stage.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    The problem with the Maersk Train is that it is a very highly rated set, has rare licensed colors, had a short shelf time, is consistently bid....err...yep nobody should purchase any...nothing to see here :)
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    There have been a Maersks sold on ebay for £125 and £149 respectively around September time even when lego had stock. Im thinking this will hit £200-£220 in 12 Months time.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Check the part out value on Bricklink. Blind Freddie can see what is going to happen with 10219.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^Why does Freddie have to be blind?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,236

    FatMatt said:

    I as well do not expect Maersk to do as well as EN.

    I don't either, EN is a classic, beautiful train that is suitable for display on its own.

    Maersk is nice, but it is a freight train, it isn't quite the same thing...

    It will do ok, 50% over RRP perhaps, but I don't see it doing EN numbers.

    The Maersk train will do as well if not better than EN, at least in the long run. but that is my opinion
    momof2boys99
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Since supply and demand are an important part of the equation, and the supply of the Maersk was relatively low (compared to the EN and other sets). I think the Maersk train will do well, regardless if people think the EN is a 'better' train.
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    I picked up EN just about when I came out of my dark ages. To me the set was "wow" - I loved everything about it; the detail, the fact that it was a steam engine, the moving connecting rods, etc. It was a set that would easily sell to non-train enthusiasts.

    Maersk to me will sell to a much more limited set of people, primarily the LEGO train enthusiasts. I don't think it will do as well, as fast, as EN did.

    However, I'll add the caveat that I don't think any train set does bad in the long run. They seem to have a steady demand one way or another. #4841 has been going up in price steadily and I think I'm even starting to see #7597 start to tick up.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited October 2012
    ^All these comments above are the very reason I don't think so. Do you wonder how many copies of MT have been purchased in the last week or two? Everyone knows this set is going, and with the Amazon discount, although not much, there is going to be a massive amount of these on the aftermarket. I do think it will do well, just not as much as many are expecting.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    FatMatt said:

    ^All these comments above are the very reason I don't think so. Do you wonder how many copies of MT have been purchased in the last week or two? Everyone knows this set is going, and with the Amazon discount, although not much, there is going to be a massive amount of these on the aftermarket. I do think it will do well, just not as much as many are expecting.

    Same quote from last year, only change MT to EN. Anywho just my 2 cents. I don't know if folks are being disingenuous (I hope not) or really think 10219 will flop? Time to move on.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,053

    Check the part out value on Bricklink. Blind Freddie can see what is going to happen with 10219.

    For those who are blind:

    MT - http://www.bricklink.com/catalogPOV.asp?itemType=S&itemNo=10219&itemSeq=1&itemQty=1&breakType=M&itemCondition=N&incInstr=Y

    EN - http://www.bricklink.com/catalogPOV.asp?itemType=S&itemNo=10194&itemSeq=1&itemQty=1&breakType=M&itemCondition=N&incInstr=Y

    You may be surprised at which is higher!

    MT - US $318.71
    EN - US $253.10
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited October 2012
    I never bought the Emerald Night. I don't like classic steam engines. I'm more of a modern type of guy. My layout doesn't go with an EN, so I passed. I do agree as a stand alone display piece EN is great.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Don't get me wrong...I do like the Maersk train and feel it's the best train set currently out. I also believe it will do well EOL; however, I personally like the classic look. To an earlier point the Maersk has flown under the radar more than the EN did, so it could do better. Just wish TLG would release a "classic" freight train. That said, I will be picking up a couple TGV trains when the opportunity presents itself.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I think we should modify both trains to be 9v. Then ram them into each other at full speed. Whoever is still on the tracks wins the argument!

    Of course the TS Western Train, and City Trains should be included in the conversation.
    FollowsClosely
  • Penkid11Penkid11 Member Posts: 789
    edited October 2012
    ^There is a reason the Toy Story Train fell off the bridge in the movie.
    Only conpletists, kids, and part sellers have any value in that set. Even for kids it has next to no entertainment value. But being that it is a licensed set, it will always be a tad spendy on e-bay.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    The TS train is flimsy and falls apart easily. It's not really a Lego train. The City Trains in my opinion, are more for children. The Maersk and Emerald Night are adult oriented trains.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    How are the SantaFe Super Chief and the BNSF trains doing in the after market. Maybe that is a better indicator on how the Maersk Train will do.
  • turtle1173turtle1173 Member Posts: 230
    I personally feel the same way about the Ghost Train. Many like it but I don't put it even close to the same class as the EN or Maersk. I recognize that one can like it without putting it on the same level as the others but I just don't care for it. Of course I'm not a big fan of Monster Fighters, so I have a biased opinion.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Not too much info on EBay right now for the Santa Feel Super Chief and BNSF trains. I'm thinking realistic values would be $225-$275 for BNSF and $275-$350 for the Super Chief.
  • Penkid11Penkid11 Member Posts: 789
    Pitfall69 said:

    How are the SantaFe Super Chief and the BNSF trains doing in the after market. Maybe that is a better indicator on how the Maersk Train will do.

    Every one of the sets from both the Santa Fe and BNSF lines are triple MSRP, at least.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I see the Monster Fighters Vampyre Castle is sold out on Lego US [email protected] Amazon has it for just over $80. How do you think the Castle will do after EOL?
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    ^Shows OOS for me.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^oops. Out of Stock.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I get so sidetracked with my 3 year old running all over the place :)
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited October 2012
    Pitfall69 said:

    Not too much info on EBay right now for the Santa Feel Super Chief and BNSF trains. I'm thinking realistic values would be $225-$275 for BNSF and $275-$350 for the Super Chief.

    Keep in mind that's about the price for each of the Sante Fe's cars, meaning it works out to around $700 to have a 3-piece train similar to EN or Maersk. Engine cabin, mail cabin, dining cabin and sleeping cabin.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Ok, well, I guess the best comparison would be the BNSF. Then you would figure in the intermodel cars then get a price comparison off that.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Keep in mind that current asking prices and the pace of sales don't always match up.

    EN is selling, but slowly... I still have 25 of them left, I have sold 1 this whole month.

    Anything over $200, and the demand just falls off the cliff. Something to keep in mind with Maersk Train, at $179 it may well sell fine, but you don't have any real profit there unless you got them cheap. If you paid full retail, after fees and shipping, it is hardly worth the bother.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    If you have 5 of them, you'll be fine. But you're generally find with 5 of any LEGO set. The trick is figuring out what sets are worth owning 100 of. Maersk Train is not one of those sets.
    CCC
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Maybe not, but it is the best train set out right now and IMHO it looks better than the Horizon Express. I wish I could stock 100, but that's only because I love it so much.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    I sell 1 EN per week , could be better as I tend to sell all my stock within 12 Months of EOL as I want the turn around. I didnt fancy paying full retail for Maersk but at double VIP and free shipping then its worth it to me (just). I wont be getting 100 Maersk's as I wouldnt shift them in 12 Months. The most Ive had was the 60 odd EN's I got which will take a total of 11-12 Months to shift. 25 Marsk's is my limit as I think I can shift that many at 100% gross in 12 Months post EOL.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    Dougout said:

    Maybe not, but it is the best train set out right now and IMHO it looks better than the Horizon Express. I wish I could stock 100, but that's only because I love it so much.

    Definitely agree. For the Train section of my collection, only EN, Maersk and Sante Fe qualifies so far. the new Horizon Express doesn't match or fit in with that trio. Instead I was hoping for something that historically fits in before Sante Fe.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    BenxSmith said:

    I jump in with the Maersk roumers then, picked em up all over town today. Sitting on 15 at the moment, hope they do good.
    Also bought 4 complete collections of Lord of the Rings. What do you guys expect from lotr? it looks really cool.

    How and where were you able to find Maersk trains all over town?
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited October 2012
    ^:).....you know, the toy aisle at Kroger, the mini-mart, a couple garage sales, and found one more at an antique shop on my way home.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    Yeah, I'm confused too. It doesn't take much these days.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    ^ figured so :P
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    With all the predictions of Maersk Train and others being EOL'd, remember last year that Emerald Night was available for awhile through retailers such as Target near the holidays. Even Imperial Flagship and the Dropship were available at discount at LEGO on Black Friday, and while they sold out, it wasn't insanely quickly or anything.

    Always trying to manage "strategy" vs "panic!"
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