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Just saying, it's relative. There are better SW LEGO sets to bet on than the 6212. It's iconic and all, but was out of a long time and not as unique as most sets.
I can see monster fighters going up in value more than the Dino sets, though the dinosaurs themselves might fetch a high price. It's funny - I've always considered myself a dinosaur-nut, but I can't seem to get excited enough about these to pull the trigger. Maybe if I can find them on clearance? Any thoughts as to a good time?
I guess the other MF sets might be profitable if you got them at a discount? Personally, I'm just not sure about some of the themes. I don't think Aliens, Atlantis, etc. has much resale value. So, one would think it would be the same for MF and Dino.
@roxio - Though the wildly inaccurate Han is exclusive to that set, none of the pieces that constitute him are. If you really want Han to sport his Hoth parka and brown pants for some reason, you don't need 6212 to do it. Of course, to be fair, if it's a completist we're talking about, they probably want a copy of 6212 anyway.
I'll be sad if the series is just a one and done.
$335.99 with free shipping... Not a bad price! :)
Also, Maersk Train is $101 on Amazon currently. About the cheapest I've seen it other than TRU BOGO50.
I'm also inclined to think Lego can keep a few older sets around with little consequence, with the exceptions of expanded/increased production and distribution (in order to produce/distribute both new and older sets) and pissing off a few resellers. I think it's quite possible Lego may be able to have the best of both worlds- continuing to make money from the sale of older sets, while still producing new and exciting sets to keep their brand fresh.
There's only so much demand for Lego, though, so it's hard to say if keeping the older sets around for longer may detract from sales of newer products leading to overall lower profit. I'm sure the bean counters are hard at work calculating this stuff (or at least they probably should be).
Length of time the set is out, For License purposes maybe they want to keep the set out longer than usual
Is there a 'replacement' for the set (Price wise)
MMV is really a flexible set and can be used for many different things (even as a renfair for a City) so Im not surprised they are still out. I'm guessing eventually it is going to go though as others have noted the price is really good for that set. (Plus from the sound of things by my LEGO store they are not getting any MMV back in stock as far as they know.. for what that is worth anyway) That and the Jousting set takes it 'slot' on the shelf.
Im guessing the DS is nice BUT the SSD really takes it 'slot' on the shelves in terms of price.. Not sure LEGO really wants to have two 400 dollar sets for SW on its shelves.
As for FB I think the general feeling is the FB lasted an extra year due to the 39R1 lot Snafu where part bags were missing. Time will tell, but also makes you wonder if GE is due to go as well if LEGO reverts back to its normal length of time for Mods on the shelf.
I just cannot see LEGO going with 3-4 mods at one time now, but who knows.
I say that, because it appears something like that is going on. Nothing says they have to stick with the same formula. I see marketing trying different methods all the time where I work. I think that is expected of them. Why do we expect LEGO to use the same formula year after year? Things are going to change. And, maybe even change back. I see that at work too. :-)
Dark tan 1x1 plates, Dark tan 2x2 corner plates, Metallic gold Fireman's hat, pearl gray hose, red garage rollers, yellow 10L hose.
In particular are the dark tan 1x1 plates since they are so high in quantity, and the red garage door rollers since this is the only set that contains them and needed in decent quantity.
Wait until it is 2 years out of print, then that will tell the tale.
Point is, I guess, you can BL them but if there is only a few $$ difference in price, buy the nisb set. It will be more valuable in the long run, even if you actually build it, and sell it when you want something else.
PS, have you checked out the info on the new Arkham set? 10937, 1619 parts, guesses on the msrp?
Happy Turkey Weekend!
We celebrate both Canadian and US thanksgiving in my house... for no other reason than thanksgiving is awesome.
Thanksgiving>Halloween>Thanksgiving>Christmas.. MAN I LOVE THIS TIME OF YEAR!!!!
Building toys are one of the few categories of toy sales that are growing at all, and they are overwhelmingly the biggest gainer (up 23% YoY from 2010 to 2011, vs. a decline in the overall toy market).
About 10% of toys are now purchased online, but the online channel strongly influences toy purchases even if the purchases are ultimately made offline. The online merchants don't have the same shelving concerns, since they don't have limited display space, and any warehouse limits they may have can still be buffered by just-in-time inventory from the manufacturer.
That suggests that Lego can have a bifurcated strategy where some sets are intended to be primarily sold through retailers, and the rest are intended to be primarily sold online. The modulars are great examples of sets which it might not make sense for most physical retailers to stock -- but which people will buy online. Lego only needs to have these units move at a rate where their own production-line capability and warehousing capacity lets them be profitable. If a production run of 10,000 is normally profitable, that means that over a year period, an average of 28 sets need to be sold each day.
Of course, they don't sell evenly, some days 100 might move, other days, 5 might move, it ebbs and flows for a thousand different reasons.
Capital cost to keep a production line running is not free, so at some point the sales generated by 50 different slow selling sets is not actually worth doing, when compared against the profits to be made from 10 fast selling sets. Since capital investment isn't unlimited and changing over production to make different sets has some cost attached to it, however minor these days, drags down profits.
I'd be curious to know what the typical sales curve of a Lego set looks like, taking seasonal variations into account.
1. Observing the lengthy shelf life of larger sets. (Fire Brigade, Death Star, and maybe MMV?)
2. Associating how well regarded the designs of the sets are
3. From that, assuming they are among the best performers
And from this constructing your theory that 3 has caused 1: "These are the best performers, and their production runs have been extended."
Here is the list of top 10 sets by revenue for 2011:
1. 7498 Police Station
2. 7965 Millennium Falcon
3. 7913 Clone Trooper Battle Pack
4. 7929 The Battle of Naboo
5. 8547 Mindstorms NXT 2.0
6. 7914 Mandalorian Battle Pack
7. 2507 Fire Temple
8. 2260 Ice Dragon Attack
9. 7288 Mobile Police Station
10. 4842 Hogwarts Castle
Wouldn't these be the sets that have extended production runs?
Just because modulars have performed well in the aftermarket does not mean they are the cash cows for LEGO. I'm not saying they do poorly for LEGO, I'm just asserting they are not being granted stays of execution purely due to sales.
Overall, I'm not really surprised by any of it, other than perhaps Hogwarts Castle, but I guess that would be the iconic set of HP overall, and it is expensive enough that if it sells at all, would generate good numbers.
NXT doesn't surprise me at all, that set sells very well all the time. I see it sell in the Lego store all the time to normal retail customers, and it remains one of the best selling Lego sets on Amazon.com
It just isn't a very investable set because as soon as 2.0 ends production, 3.0 will come out, so there won't be any real value in the older version.
Also, that list makes clear, Star Wars isn't going anywhere, and will continue to do well in the future. Perhaps 7965 will make a good investment when it finally does retire. :)
Death Star - there is a precedent for a large "trophy" set being produced for multiple years in the Star Wars line - see #10030 Imperial Star Destroyer.
Last year the Emerald Night and Imperial Flagship went out during their "predicted" timeframes...I'm not sure we have enough data to really say that TLG is changing their shelf-life for sets. Once we make it through the end of the year we'll have more insight.
What is different however is that we now have a larger range of $100 sets currently in production than ever before...this seems to be a product of increasing design quality that has been trending for a few years coupled with Lego's recent sales growth.