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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    cloaked7 said:

    Sorry to hear it wasn't your typical 50 copies in inventory. All we need is to use a time machine one time! OK, make that twice. Once to jump back, once to return. :-)

    If I had a time machine, I wouldn't use it for Lego.

    All I need to know are the winning lotto numbers that will be drawn tonight, so tomorrow's newspaper would be plenty.

    And I only need to use it once. :)
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ Now what would be the fun in that! :-) Lottery tickets. he he

    OK... OK.... when I get my time machine completed I'll let you use it. Once! :-)
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk Member Posts: 633
    Sam Beckett used his time machine once. He ended up leaping from life to life forever...
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Member Posts: 3,639
    ^One of my fave shows which had quality writing and creative ideas, "Where are you Al?"
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk Member Posts: 633
    "Oh boy..."
  • DadDad Member Posts: 816
    ^I think the #4842 could double rrp by Christmas which will in turn push up the #4867 then drop off again. Getting a lot of interest in them in the UK. Paid £67 for most of mine too but was lucky enough to get a car full for £50 and £25 respectively from Tesco earlier in the year. Or maybe I wasn't lucky, It was bedtime but I went and did a midnight run round 3 Tesco Extra's which was a 100 mile round trip. Sometimes you can come back empty handed but sometimes you win. It was a no brainer to me.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ Fun? How about the fun of knowing
    dragonhawk said:

    Sam Beckett used his time machine once. He ended up leaping from life to life forever...

    Oh Boy...

    Wait, someone said that one already...

    :)

    Great show, great writing (some of the time)...
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk Member Posts: 633
    ^ Season 1-3 were mostly very well written and acted. The show really went downhill when they mucked around with President Kennedy's assasination.

    Going Home part1 was the best episode for me
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Make sure you have Mr. Fusion.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    prevere said:

    Make sure you have Mr. Fusion.

    Make sure you have spare gasoline! Mr. Fusion only runs the time circuits...
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    BTW, I know it is only a movie, and I know the Deloran used fuel injection at the time when most cars did not, but it was not fancy fuel injection, very basic...

    My question is... Could someone with Dr. Brown's brains not have wipped up some basic gasoline in a week given access to 1885 oil?

    It doens't have to be pretty, it just has to work for 5 minutes...
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk Member Posts: 633
    Crating the oil purification mechanism would probably take much more time and effort than stealing a locomotive
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    :) That might be true, but it has the benifit of being a sure thing, that whole locomotive thing has two problems:

    1. It can only be tried once, and if it doesn't work, you're screwed.

    2. Taking a large expensive object like a locomotive and removing it from the timeline would affect a LOT. For all of Doc Brown's "don't change time" comments, this rather broke that in a large way.

    Finally, the movie missed the simple obvious solution. If they know what is going to happen, why stay in Hill Valley? They had horses, ride somewhere else for a month, give some time to pass, let Mad Dog Tannen go off to do something else, then come back and solve the gas problem.

    But, that doesn't make for as good a movie. :)
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk Member Posts: 633
    edited October 2012
    1. In movie 1, the DeLorean was going 88mph into a brick wall before vanishing. I say all or nothing was the motto of Marty & doc Brown;)

    2. By being stuck in 1885 for weeks, Doc Brown already broke the rule in a big way

    3. Thinking about time travel makes my head hurt
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ It was 9 months, rather than weeks, but who's counting? :)

    Yea, time-travel opens up so many issues, it really is just fantasy, because the world as we know it doesn't work otherwise.
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk Member Posts: 633
    Unless you are Superman and Lois Lane just died or you need a pair of extinct whales to ward off a gigantic cylinder heading for earth..

    but I digress ;)
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    They had a time machine on Big Bang Theory. They never thought about using it for the lottery or saving Lois. :-) It was funny. Ah... Sheldon. Here's a tie into Back to the Future. Perfect!

    =======
    Leonard: Girls like Penny never end up with guys who own time machines.
    Sheldon: I disagree. Your inability to successfully woo Penny long predates your acquisition of the time machine. That failure clearly stands on its own.
    Leonard: Thanks for pointing it out.
    Sheldon: In addition, your premise is flawed. In the original film, Rod Taylor got Yvette Mimieux with that very time machine. In Back to the Future, Marty McFly got the opportunity to hook up with his extremely attractive young mother.
    Leonard: Those are movies.
    Sheldon: Of course they're movies. Were you expecting me to come up with an example involving a real-life time machine? That's absurd
    =======
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ Oh crap, now you owe me a new keyboard, mine is covered in coffee!!! :)
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited October 2012
    Yup, mistake drinking while reading anything I write. :-) BTW, Big Bang's first episode of the season was last Thr. Hope you DVR'd it. As I look over at my Sheldon bobble head. (You think I jest?)
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Member Posts: 3,639
    ^'We can hear you from space... without a telephone ma!!!'
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ he he Great quote from the last episode!
  • AmberylAmberyl Member Posts: 193
    There's currently an abundance of them on eBay, including some guy who put up four NISBs with a base price of $2.99, in two pairs that expire at near the same time. Pretty much guaranteed to depress prices, plus there are a whole bunch of NISBs one currently on auction with bid prices under $350. Someone's listed a NISB buy-it-now at $320 + $10 shipping. Probably not the best of times to be selling yours, if you can wait.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    Indeed, prices have come down on this set in the past month, I should have sold mine months ago, they really haven't gone anywhere in months, and are trending down now.

    Might not rise again until after Chrsitmas. :(
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 1,996
    Somehow, this price dip had completely escaped my attention. I only have two, of course, but I've overextended myself on space and I'm trying to clear a little inventory. Not sure if it's worth it or not to take the lower price on these, but I figure with only two, I won't miss out on much. Not in the near future, anyway.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ It isn't just this... Look at the GG, it has dropped as well, was up to $585 on Bricklink just a few weeks ago, now down to $535.

    I think people are starting to list their "Christmas" inventory, and so the market is getting more inventory for sale which depresses prices.

    Plus, people are now spending on family and kids for the holidays, so I think that depresses the prices of retired sets.

    It will go back up. :)
  • AmberylAmberyl Member Posts: 193
    I've been watching eBay prices vs. Brickpicker history, as well, since I've been trying to get retired sets -- several of the more expensive out-of-print sets are significantly off their August highs.

    I imagine, in addition to what LFT has said, the really excellent recent sales, especially on big sets, at TRU/Walmart/Amazon/etc., has absorbed some of the budget that people would otherwise have to spend on retired sets.
  • JT32JT32 Member Posts: 124
    Did anyone manage to grab a SSD from amazon.it for £161 as currently stated on the amazon discounts page? Even though I'm not a massive fan of the model that is a massive discount and one I'd have stocked up on.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I grabbed an IF for $300 from a fellow forum member a couple of months ago. He dropped it off at my place of business. This is a great set and if you can, sit on it another 5-6 months. As far as Green Grocer, I have mine listed on EBay right now. I have it as a best offer. The prices have gone down on GG as well. Luckily, I don't need space or the money right now. Again, if you can wait, try to find a place for it.
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272
    Maybe the bubble is just bursting...

    Not my personal opinion, but something to consider.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ Yes, always a possibility...
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,331
    edited October 2012
    It's really quite straight forward.

    Number of people willing to pay Z x RRP for set Y.

    Number of people buying set Y to resell.

    Once those numbers don't work the game's up. I'm not sure there's really a bubble to burst but if thats what you want to call it fine. Having said that 10210 is still selling at almost 2xRRP and was available on discount so still not a bad investment. If i had any, I'd be more worried about how many FB are sitting MISB.
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Member Posts: 1,079
    ^i've tried but since it was not sold via amazon directly i wasn't able to order(i don't live in Italy),somehow i'm pretty sure that the orders will get cancelled anyway! That must've been a typo or some,way to cheap!
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I usually give a great set like the Imperial Flagship a year before it even hits 2x RRP. It hasn't been a year since they were discounted and sold out. Obviously there are other factors that make a set shoot up in price or become a dud. It's not a licenced set and to tell you the truth, I'm surprised it shot up in price that fast, so maybe it just over achieved and it's settling about where it should be at this point in time.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    As far as FB, I'm not worried about that at all. Even at $172+Shipping Amazon was/is still selling them after the $111 sale and free shipping.
  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265
    anyone think the ssd will go lower on BF than the $336 listed at walmart right now?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    I don't see more than a 30% discount on the SSD from anywhere. They were 20% off at [email protected] during the May promotion. Of course this is in the US.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ Yes, but after Amazon takes their 15% cut plus other fixed fees, you're not actually making anything.
  • cbaker1974cbaker1974 Member Posts: 150
    eBay has been running a few free listing promos over the past couple of weeks which I think have contributed to more inventory being listed overall and thus some price depression.
  • JT32JT32 Member Posts: 124
    ^ can i confirm the Black Friday sale at [email protected] happens in the UK as well? Only been out of my dark age around two years and I can't remember it from last year?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    ^ Yes... because when selling a $350 item, a 50 cent listing fee should stop lots of people. :)

    I find human behavior so interesting... and I'm just as guilty of it of course, so I can laugh at myself in the process.
  • FatMattFatMatt Member Posts: 502
    ^^They were approx $336, free shipping, at Amazon last night.
  • 111ins111ins Member Posts: 265
    do you think it will do better than that with all the sales coming up in the next 3 months?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,789
    Farmer_John said:

    Very good price for #7930...

    IF the Boxes are not empty or filled with something other than LEGO.. I marvel at the prices in clearance aisles but am very wary of the possibility that the boxes are filled with trash, filled with used LEGO or missing the figures
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,789
    LegoFanTexas said:

    ^ Yes, but keep in mind the Batcave has spent a lot of time on sale, I've bought a few copies for $50 shipped, which is a pretty decent discount on a $70 set.

    That is going to hold the price down for awhile. You also don't know how long it will be out. Could be just 1 year, could be 3 years.

    LOL As I recall the original LEGO bat cave and Arkham both spent considerable time on sale and look what those prices did.. now that WAS before the glut of re-sellers popped up, but as long as LEGO does not make Bat cave after batcave I think they will be OK.. What amazes me is no Arkham redo yet.. unless that is coming in the next run
  • thorniethornie Member Posts: 245
    Anyone think the latest tie fighter or x-wing will go on sale on BF? A couple people over at some other forums have reported K-mart clearing these two out for 50% off (of course none of the kmarts by me are having clearance sales). I'd gladly pick these two up for 30% off each.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ I got the X-Wing on Amazon for $41 and some change a couple of weeks ago. An excellent discount and tax free for me, so I snagged one then. So, you can find it on Amazon for a good price now and again. Course, it isn't at that price often, and doesn't last long when it is.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    Pitfall69 said:

    As far as FB, I'm not worried about that at all. Even at $172+Shipping Amazon was/is still selling them after the $111 sale and free shipping.

    I was just saying that BF is still selling even at 15% over RRP even though you can still get it at RRP and it is not even EOL yet. I personally have yet to lose money on a Lego set. I suppose if you bought a set for retail and sold it for the same price you bought it, but who does that if you are a true reseller? I'm not worried about have a ton of Fire Brigades because I know they will go up in value. Even if for some reason they peak at $200 after EOL (I'm being funny) I would still make about $47 a set ;)

    LegoFanTexas said:

    ^ Yes... because when selling a $350 item, a 50 cent listing fee should stop lots of people. :)

    I find human behavior so interesting... and I'm just as guilty of it of course, so I can laugh at myself in the process.

    Yes, my aunt would drive all over town looking for the best prices on things and waste so much time and gas. In the end, she would find a great price, but have gained nothing.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,789
    After buying a few 6212 Im not buying anymore X-wings
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^I don't think you will lose any money on #6212. You probably bought them on sale since you bought a few. You could get $80-100 for them right now. As far as #9493, I think it will do well after EOL, just not very well.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ I slightly disagree. True, you won't lose money on a 6212, but you aren't going to get $80-100 for them now. Sure, they're listed for that much, but not selling for that. I have one listed for $55 and it has no bids.

    If the X-Wing were made and never made again it would be different, but LEGO always has a X-Wing. And, the newer one is most always better, so it really hurts demand for previous ones. Now, a UCS X-Wing would be different. But, I think they've made one of those already haven't they?
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