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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    prevere said:

    Funny, the architecture stuff never seems to be on clearance. They aren't available at the typical Wallys and TRUs. Nothing from [email protected] in terms of clearance or price breaks. I've been waiting for some kind of break in price to buy some.

    The rest of the 1st wave could easily just start to slip away and vanish. As LFT said, the Hancock is gone. More are sure to follow.

    I think Barnes and Noble with coupons is how several people have purchased these sets at great prices.
  • hleonffuhleonffu USAMember Posts: 241
    @prevere Buy them from Barnes & Noble. With membership, you get at least 10% and more with their coupons (10% to 50% additional).
  • LegoPodcasterLegoPodcaster Member Posts: 115
    I have bought a few of the Architecture sets using Barnes and Noble coupons.

    Amazon has the Robie House 25% off right now.
    http://goo.gl/p8BFX
  • Cam_n_StuCam_n_Stu UKMember Posts: 368
    edited September 2012
    Amazon UK has had Fallingwater reduced, but never Robbie House. It seems you can pick them up across the Amazon EU sites for significantly less on occasion. I suspect they will go up and potentially up quite a lot for the higher piece count sets but I reckon the market for them will be *very* small too.


  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Maybe it's old news, but the PotC BP is sold out. I thought it came back briefly, but it's sold out again.

    I figure the PotC QAR is next to go, and it will likely be soon. Anyway, I ordered (or should I say tried to order) a QAR on amazon from an independent seller. The last item I ordered from an independent seller (a SW MF) came wrapped in inverted Christmas paper. Needless to say, the Lego box was cylindrically shaped instead of rectangularly shaped. This time I told the seller ahead of time that I expected the item to be packaged well and that I would return the item if it arrived in damaged condition. About 15 minutes after I sent my email, the order was canceled by the seller. At least I didn't have to hassle with it since the seller obviously wasn't concerned about its condition upon arrival.

    Anyway...I think all PotC sets will be gone by year's end, and probably even by the end of the BF sale...get'em while you can.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    As a seller myself, I can't wrap my brain around what kind of a Jack*** would just put brown paper over a LEGO box and ship that way. That thought has never once entered my brain. I hate people sometimes.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited September 2012
    To be honest, the first few sets I ever shipped a few years ago were only wrapped in brown paper. Granted, I was new to the shipping world, and did not realize how brutal it was. I was quickly corrected on proper shipping procedures by the recipients. This is one "Jack" who did. :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,412
    ^Don't be so hard on yourself. You are from another planet Mr. Shumway.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    I try really hard to fit in, but people always seem to notice me.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Don't eat the cats! Cats are friends, not food! :-)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,412
    The only good cat is a stir fried cat
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    nano nano... err wrong alien sitcom
    MorkMan
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,412
    edited September 2012
    OK. We don't want to be yelled at by momof2boys99 ;)

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    *Incoming transmission from the Big Giant Head*
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    ^^ Did you call???? Where are you taking this thread??

    I do hope you know I am kidding around. :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,412
    We know :-)
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Wow, I hadn't gotten around to reading this thread in a few days and was excited to see 50 posts to read. Thanks for nothin :P
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    gmpirate said:

    Wow, I hadn't gotten around to reading this thread in a few days and was excited to see 50 posts to read. Thanks for nothin :P

    Back on topic...

    Soon, some really good sets will retire, that will rise in price, soon... or later... or sometime... and make some of us lots of money, or some money, or perhaps a little money.

    Perhaps, maybe, just quite...

    Actually, I hear that Lego sets will retire this Christmas, and some of them will do well, and some will not, and some people will guess right, and others won't.

    That will be *one milllllllllion dollars* for that great advice please!

    *Mini-me, stop humping the laser!*
  • Penkid11Penkid11 Member Posts: 788
    edited September 2012
    ^EEEE! EEEEE!

    (Back on topic) Does anyone see Lego bringing back the Winter Toy Shop this year?
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Ahhh, you're killin me Smalls!
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    Penkid11 said:

    ^EEEE! EEEEE!

    (Back on topic) Does anyone see Lego bringing back the Winter Toy Shop this year?

    Nope. Any glimmer of hope that had of happening was probably dashed when the Bakery and Post Office showed back up on [email protected] earlier this month.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Get the TS now if you want it. Christmas is in less than 3 months and it will only go up from here...
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    ^ I could not agree more. The question is, where can you get TS for a decent price
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    I think Bricklink is your best option. Last I checked the average price of a new one is around $85 without shipping cost. Most of the sets on Ebay are at $100 or above.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    ^ I could not agree more. The question is, where can you get TS for a decent price

    Define "decent price"... :)
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    ^ Less than 1.5x rrp.. I do not make LFT's money ;)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Penkid11 said:

    Does anyone see Lego bringing back the Winter Toy Shop this year?

    No, it is gone and retired... The current prices will only keep going up from here.

    There are a few copies on Bricklink in Europe for about $85-90, once you add shipping to the US, those will be $100 or more. But those are a bargain, on eBay they are going for $130 shipped and up.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    ^ Less than 1.5x rrp.. I do not make LFT's money ;)

    It exists in Europe, but not after you put shipping into the math. :(
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    Yeah not gonna happen this time around..
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,905
    Future of EOLs for Winter Series:

    I'm gonna take a wild guess and say that the Bakery set is going to last throughout 2013. With Lego extending the life of many of its specialty sets, I think these could face Modular-type of lives (2-3 years+).
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I think I read the WV schedule on this blog last fall (which obviously is alway subject to change) and it had the TS going EOL last year, which did happen. It also had the Bakery going EOL this year. Since the WV schedule has been correct to date, I'm going to continue using it as my EOL guide...
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,860
    ^---- I was a doubting thomas, but after seeing some of things going on, it sounds like it is pretty accurate.. When does GE go EOL? That was on the lists was it not?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,412
    I don't know how Lego decides what goes and what continues. It could be this complex mathematical system of equations that determine the life of a particular set. It could be the popularity of the set, the sales of the set, the pieces contained within the set, the costs of producing the set or they just say "let's stop making the set". I certainly don't know how they determine EOL. All we can do is make educated guesses.
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    The 10212 IS seems a very slow seller, so it makes you wonder how long lego can keep producing a slow seller which is taking up a lot of warehouse space. Its resale value could be impressive when discontinued as its a cracking set, however slow sales may contradict this. It will be interesting to see what its worth in 3 years time. Wasnt the 10179 MF an apparant slow seller? Yet look at the price now. Its certainly difficult to predict. I've 66 10212's now and Im twitching a little now as I dont think I'll shift these as easy as originally thought.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,860
    edited September 2012
    It is all weird how they come up with EOL dates IMO..
    Sometimes I think they just use a dart board
    Like one LEGO employee told me they think the FB was extended a year due to the lot snafu with the 39R1.. But then I have heard people try to say it was always planned for an 'additional' year.
    I think the SW 10179 Falcon was around due to its price and that no many people bought them (until they want on sale that is) but I think they did not extend those as much as no one was buying them (relative to other sets of course)
    Same with IS.. Not many people want to pay that much for a set at the moment, but I think this year it seems more have been selling, partly due to sales, and partly due to speculation Id imagine.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    That is a LOT of money invested in just one set. Good for you for having the income to invest that much but I wouldn't want anywhere near that many of such an expensive set. You never know what can happen to the market for any given set (or Lego in general). Lego in my opinion are like any other investment in that diversifying is the best approach (at least for me). I generally don't like having more than 5 or 6 of any given set. Only exception being really small stuff like Ninjago spinners.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    I've 66 10212's now and Im twitching a little now as I dont think I'll shift these as easy as originally thought.

    66 sounds like a lot, but it really isn't in the grand scheme of things... but if they don't sell well after EOL, or the price doesn't rise, or you didn't get them for under RRP... :)
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    Renny said:

    That is a LOT of money invested in just one set. Good for you for having the income to invest that much but I wouldn't want anywhere near that many of such an expensive set. You never know what can happen to the market for any given set (or Lego in general). Lego in my opinion are like any other investment in that diversifying is the best approach (at least for me). I generally don't like having more than 5 or 6 of any given set. Only exception being really small stuff like Ninjago spinners.

    I agree completely. With few exceptions, I won't hold over five of a single set. I only have two Imperial Shuttles myself. I think they'll do quite well after EOL, but I suspect they'll be slow movers.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,860
    edited September 2012
    66 sounds like a lot because it is a lot when you factor in, even with sale prices, how much that amounts to..
    I do not really want to get into the whole bragging vs those without funds drooling over those numbers, but 66 is a lot in most circles.
    That is an awful lot of eggs in one basket if the IS stays out for another year.. I mean they will go up if LEGO stops making them permanently but it will take more and more time the longer they are out..
    I think everyone's guess though is they are done this year along with some others including FB and MMV.. which reminds me that I hope [email protected] is doing free shipping during double points as I want a few more MMV and LEGO store by me is out of them and doubts they are getting more in.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    I check Amazon Warehouse regularly. A "like new" Fire Brigade lasted 2-3 days recently. Four months ago it would of only lasted ten minutes. My guess is that things are on the down turn a bit as far as reselling. For any of the big sets right now, I think you will be looking at at least two years before you can get double RRP.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409

    66 sounds like a lot because it is a lot when you factor in, even with sale prices, how much that amounts to..
    I do not really want to get into the whole bragging vs those without funds drooling over those numbers, but 66 is a lot in most circles.

    It is a huge number when looking at it as an individual, but as a reseller, it is meaningless unless you know the total budget and the total number of other sets in inventory.

    Amazon has thousands and thousands of Lego sets, 66 is a drop in the bucket to them.

    To me, 66 of that set is a lot, more than I can afford to keep, but I don't begrudge him from them, for all we know he has 200 of each modular, which makes 66 IS a reasonable number by comparison.

    Of course, as long as sellers like him are out there, the prices will be held down as long as he (or she) needs or wants the cashflow.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    mathew said:

    I check Amazon Warehouse regularly. A "like new" Fire Brigade lasted 2-3 days recently. Four months ago it would of only lasted ten minutes. My guess is that things are on the down turn a bit as far as reselling. For any of the big sets right now, I think you will be looking at at least two years before you can get double RRP.

    I noticed that too... FB is selling ok on Amazon, but not like it used to. I think the resellers all have as many as they generally want, and only great sales like the current one will push them to buy more.

    FB won't hit $500 any time soon, if ever. I'll be thrilled to sell them all for $250 a year after retirement, and I'm now only giving 50/50 odds on that.

    So why did I just buy more? Cause I'm crazy about Lego I guess! :)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,860
    The nice thing about FB is that the parts are such that you can make different building with it. IMO it is one of the few Mod sets that really can be switched around to be different things as the colors are very nice IMO
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ^ Agreed... The other reason I'm betting hard on it is simply that once it retires, all it takes is for Lego to come out with a Police HQ Modular, and suddenly everyone has to have the FB to go with it. At $500, a lot of people won't care and will pass, at $250, I think many more will bite.

    Or I hope... :)
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk USMember Posts: 633
    mathew said:

    ... For any of the big sets right now, I think you will be looking at at least two years before you can get double RRP.

    I am curious to know everyone's end goal as far as reselling. Obviously not every set is UCS MF or EN. So what price is the sweet spot to sell, 1.5xRRP, double RRP, triple RRP ? How long do you hold on to your sets to reach that price ? 1 year, 2 years, 3, more ? What is the threshold ?
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Every set is different, and some rise and some don't... I have some sets I'm now selling at cost that I bought a year ago, because the price just isn't rising and I have better things to do with the money. Others, I could sell for a profit right now, but I think I'll do much better waiting until next year.
  • DaddyDeuceDaddyDeuce Member Posts: 272

    all it takes is for Lego to come out with a Police HQ Modular

    It would also pair nicely with a modular hospital, particularly if it included an ambulance.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    BTW, regarding FB, just did the math, the price is exactly 5 cents a part right now on Amazon, at $111.59 divided by the 2231 parts in the set.

    Given how many new 2012 sets are at 13+ cents per part, this is a killer deal.

    Anyone want to place bets on how long it lasts in stock? :)
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    Depends on the growth trajectory of the specific set or theme. Based on previous performance in general, for Star Wars, you can expect 1.5xRRP in 1 year and 2x-2.5x RRP after 2 years. So they are safe to hold onto for a while. Lesser liked themes climb slower and may never hit 2x RRP, like Atlantis and AC come to mind for recent lines. So dropping those off at 1.25x-1.5x RRP during first year of EOL is a good idea to keep cash flow. There's a cost to the pent up cash, which I roughly equate to 5% annually compounded. So 3 years plus may erode a lot of value in missed new opportunities.

    Way back up in this thread is a discussion about quick turnover for low profit versus long term holding for high value. It leaned toward fast turnover since the profit is captured sooner and turned into new investment.
  • Faedian7Faedian7 Member Posts: 50

    BTW, regarding FB, just did the math, the price is exactly 5 cents a part right now on Amazon, at $111.59 divided by the 2231 parts in the set.

    Given how many new 2012 sets are at 13+ cents per part, this is a killer deal.

    Anyone want to place bets on how long it lasts in stock? :)

    With the current deals in place on the PS would you recommend going ahead with picking up a copy? I was thinking I would wait another year before I grab one.
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